Nogger's Blog

25/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, in line with their "normal" trend to finish in the green heading into the Thankgsiving Day holiday. The UDSA reported 190,000 MT of US soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecast for the 2015 US soybean crop at 3.9 billion bushels. There was no alteration either for Brazil (99.9 MMT) or Argentina (59.58 MMT). Soyoil continues to be supported on Indonesian palm oil production concerns related to El Nino, and calls for palm oil prices to continue to rise into the first half of 2016. Brazilian weather is mixed - a bit dry in some northern and central areas and too wet in parts of the south. Argentine weather is generally friendly. The trade is bracing itself for a deluge of old crop Argentine soybeans coming onto the market once new president Macri gets into office mid-December. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.75 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.77 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $284.80, up $1.00; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 28.89, up 58 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2-4 cents higher. Weekly ethanol production data from the US Energy Dept was supportive. Production last week hit a record 1.008 million barrels/day, an increase of 33,000 barrels/day from the previous week. The previous all-time high was 994,000 barrels/day. The EPA are expected to release their updated Renewable Fuels Standard on Friday. Spanish-owned biofuel operator Abengoa (who operate 6 ethanol plants in the US) are said to have applied for preliminary protection from creditors following a breakdown in negotiations with a new investment firm. John Deere report equipment net sales for the US and Canada are down 23% for the quarter and 18% for the year, according to FCStone. Poor machinery sales are a classic sign of farmer dissatisfaction with grain prices. MDA CropCast were unchanged from last week on their forecast for the 2015 US corn crop at 13.782 billion bushels. There was also no adjustment for Brazil (79.6 MMT), Argentina (25.4 MMT) or Ukraine (22.1 MMT). Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest is 88.8% complete at 12.4 MMT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.66, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.72 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Egypt bought 240,000 MT of wheat for Dec 21-31 shipment, with half of that being French origin, plus a cargo each from Romania and Russia. US wheat remains priced out of such business. Egypt's Supplies Minister said that the country now has enough wheat bought to last it until the end of April - into the beginning of their own 2016 harvest. The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2015 wheat harvest was still not quite over at 99.8% complete producing a crop of 64.0 MMT in bunker weight. Winter grain planting in Russia seems to have stalled at 16.3 million ha, or 95.2% of the original government target. Colder air is seen moving into the Volga region next week. Ukraine said that it's winter wheat crop (only planted on 89% of the intended area) for the 2016 harvest has only emerged on 4.1 million ha, or 62% that area. Winter wheat in Ukraine is rated 68% good to satisfactory versus 83% a year ago. Weak/thinned is 32% against 17% this time last year. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Russia has banned wheat exports to Turkey following the shooting down of a Russian jet over Syria earlier in the week. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.79 1/4, down 5 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.57 1/4, down 1/4 cent; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14 1/2, up 5 cents.