Nogger's Blog

21/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans extended the recent rally, helped by a 7-week high weekly soybean export sales total. That was 747,418 MT for both old and new crop. That included 407,700 MT for 2015/16. Exports of 339,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Chinese soybean imports in March were up 36% from March 2015 at 6.1 MMT. January to March imports were up 4%. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange slashed its Argentine soybean production estimate for 2015/16 to 56 MMT from its previous forecast of 60 MMT to damage from the recent excessive rains. The Arg Ag Ministry cut to 57.6 MMT from its previous estimate of 60.9 MMT. The USDA are at 59 MMT currently. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.18 3/4, up 9 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $325.20, up $6.30; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.21, down 43 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 10 cents lower, despite weekly export sales of 1,202,800 MT for 2015/16 being up 6 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 123,100 MT were also reported for new crop. In addition exports themselves were 1,283,500 MT - marketing-year-high - and were up 27 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (398,200 MT), Colombia (313,900 MT) Mexico (279,900 MT). There were no sales to Brazil yet, but these might not be far away. Private exporters also reported that 240,000 MT of additional US corn was sold to Japan this morning under the daily reporting system. NYMEX Crude set a near 6-month closing high. With all that bullish news it was interesting to see corn end 10 cents lower then. May 16 Corn settled at $3.84 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.89 3/4, down 10 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Weekly export sales for the soon to end 20115/16 marketing year were 295,100 MT, new crop sales were 325,600 MT and exports of 468,100 MT were up 51 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The latter also included on cargo to China. Japan purchased 126,298 MT of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia in it's regulat weekly tender. Stats Canada said Canadian farmers intend to plant 23.8 million acres of all wheat compared to last year's 24.1 million. Plantings last year were 23.111 million. Various analysts are lining up to say the Russia's 2016 wheat crop could now beat last year's. Ukraine;s won't bit will maybe not be down as much as was feared in the winter. Europe's wheat crop might be down 3% or so. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.03 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $5.00, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.51 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents