EU Grains Mixed - 2016 Wheat Production Prospects Looking Rosy

21/04/16 -- EU grains mixed, with front month May 16 London wheat up GBP1.10/tonne at GBP107.50/tonne, May 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR153.25/tonne, June corn fell EUR0.75/tonne to EUR163.00/tonne and rapeseed closed a euro higher at EUR380.25/tonne.

Brussels confirmed 712 000 MT of soft wheat and 137 000 MT of barley export licences this past week. Wheat exports thus were up 34% on a week ago.

Wheat crops across most of Europe are developing well, and another bumper production year is expected, if not quit matching last year's dizzy heights.

"Poland is the main problem area but otherwise the picture is broadly looking good," a German analyst told Reuters.

The French have planted an 80-year high record crop, and conditions there were rated almost universally good to very good as of last Monday (92%) say FranceAgriMer. A Bloomberg survey this week put the French soft wheat crop at an average of 39.4 MMT this year, down 3.9% on a year ago.

With such a high proportion of the crop rated good to very good though it may be that yields outperform and production is closer to, or even exceeds, last year. The highest estimate in the survey was 41.9 MMT.

A similar survey at this point last year only pegged average production at around MMT as I recall, based on good to excellent ratings around the 91% mark.

Germany's 2016 winter wheat crop will probably fall around 1.7 percent from last year's bumper harvest to 26.10 MMT. That's still above the recent 5-year average of about 25 million, Germany's farm cooperatives association estimates.

The Polish winter wheat crop could be 4% down last year, say Sparks Polska. "Most of the lost winter wheat acreage will be replanted with spring wheat. Recent warm and rainy weather was more crop-friendly," they told Reuters.