Chicago Beans Jump Higher, Corn Follows, Wheat Dithers

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 10:41 | Categorized as

29/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply higher. The USDA reported export sales of 129,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total 66,000 MT is for delivery during the 2015/2016 marketing year and 63,000 MT is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year. Unlike others who foresee a drop, the IGC said that China would raise soybean imports in 2016/17 to 88 MMT. They were unchanged in Argentine and Brazilian new crop production (55 MMT and 101 MMT respectively), but upped the US from 103.5 MMT to 105 MMT. Overall they see world 2016/17 production rising 1 MMT from last month to 321 MMT, but increased consumption 3 MMT to 327 MMT. Mid-day weather runs were supportive coming in slightly drier and hotter than the overnight runs. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.32 1/2, up 29 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.03, up 25 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $350.00, up $8.50; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.35, up 86 points.

Corn: Corn closed 3-4 cents higher on spillover support from beans. There was probably some end of month short-covering and a bit of spec buying as the latest weather forecasts turned a bit hotter and drier. Heat should now start to become less of a factor for US corn as we get into August. Decent export demand and a lack of cheap offers out of South America are the best story that the bulls have for US corn right now. The upcoming FSU harvest is not so bullish though. The IGC raise their view on world corn production in 2016/17 by 14 MMT to 1017 MMT, consumption was increased 8 MMT to 1010 MMT. The Argentine crop was raised to 39.2 MMT, Ukraine's upped from 25.5 MMT to 26.5 MMT and the US crop from 355.3 MMT to 365.2 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine crop was 58.6% harvested versus 79% this time last year. Production so far is at 17.2 MMT and yields are 8.44 MT/ha. FranceAgriMer left their corn good to very good crop ratings unchanged at 69%. They said that 46% of the crop was silking as opposed to 90% a year ago. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.34 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents;Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.42 3/4, up 4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. The market remains torn between the ongoing disaster that is France and good crops elsewhere. The worst of the news for France might not all be in the market yet, the harvest is less than 50% done according to FranceAgriMer. Crop conditions were down again this week, by 2 points to 42% good to very good. EU soft wheat export licences outstrip year ago levels by 37.5% so far. French offers might be missing from GASC's tenders but Romania is in there pitching. The IGC raised their estimate for the global 2016/17 wheat crop by 6 MMT from last month to 735 MMT. Consumption was increased 7 MMT to 727 MMT. The EU crop was cut from 154.6 MMT to 149.0 MMT. Australian production was up from 25.5 MMT to 26.0 MMT, Russia was raised from 63.0 MMT to 67.5 MMT, Ukraine increased from 23 to 25 MMT and the US up from 56.6 MMT to 61.5 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine wheat crop was 88% planted, with the area this year expected to be 4.3 million ha, up 19.4% on last year. Even so, most of this extra surplus will likely go to Brazil. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.07 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.09 3/4, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03 3/4, up 2 cents.