EU Grains Mixed, Production Estimates Vary Widely

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:36 | Categorized as

29/07/16 -- EU grains closed mixed on the day but mostly lower for the week. The market is struggling to decide between some very low crop forecasts for France in particular, along with some less worrisome estimates for the rest of Europe and beyond.

The day ended with benchmark Nov 16 GBP0.70/tonne higher at GBP125.70/tonne. Sep 16 Paris wheat traded up EUR04.25/tonne at EUR166.00/tonne, Aug corn was EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR168.75/tonne and Nov16 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.750/tonne firmer at EUR362.00/tonne.

For the week. that puts London wheat down GBP0.30/tonne, Paris wheat down EUR8.00/tonne, corn EUR2.75/tonne weaker and rapeseed up EUR1.25/tonne.

The IGC estimated the global wheat crop at 735 MMT, up 6 MMT from previously. The EU all wheat crop was placed at 149.0 MMT, down 5.6 MMT from last month (and soft wheat at 139.9 MMT).

ODA just yesterday forecast an EU soft wheat crop of only 134 MMT, whilst the USDA currently predict an EU all wheat crop of 156.5 MMT, so there are some fairly wide differences of opinion there.

The IGC estimate EU all wheat exports in 2016/17 at 30.8 MMT, down 3.8 MMT on a month ago and 13.7% below those of last season, whilst the USDA are still at 34.0 MMT.

The IGC upped their forecast for Russian wheat production from 63.0 MMT to 67.5 MMT, as well as Ukraine (23 MMT to 25 MMT), Australia (25.5 MMT to 26.0 MMT) and the US (56.6 MMT to 61.5 MMT).

The Russian Ag Min said that their 2016 grain harvest was 22.5% complete on 10.7 million ha for a crop of 41.4 MMT to date. Wheat production stands at 33.3 MMT off 29.1% of plan.

Brussels announced that they'd released 413 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, which takes the new season total so far to 2.2 MMT versus 1.6 MMT a year ago.

FranceAgriMer cut French winter wheat crop ratings again, down 2 points on a week ago to 42% (77% this time in 2015). They said that harvesting of wheat is now 41% complete (barley 100% done).

At home, ADAS said that the UK 2016 barley harvest was 35% complete, and that 15% of the OSR crop was in the barn. Yields for both vary quite dramatically, but typical barley yields are coming in at around 6.0-6.6 MT/ha and at 2.9-3.4 MT/ha for OSR.

The German harvest is progressing nicely and yields/quality are said to be not as bad as some had feared. Most of the wheat crop in the south will only make feed grade though.