Nogger's Blog

01/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower on the day but higher for the week, I guess you could call today pre-weekend profit-taking, but we could easily be back in the grips of a weather market again next week depending on weekend weather developments and the latest forecasts. The USDA this morning said that 160.845 million bushels of US soybeans were crushed during May, below the average trade estimate of 162.5 million. Informa estimated the 2016/17 US average soybean yield will be 46.9 bu/acre, with production at 3.892 billion bu (USDA June: 3.800 billion bu). The USDA announced that 40,000 MT of US soybean oil was sold to China this morning for 2016/17 delivery. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.68 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.37 1/2, down 15 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $404.80, down $0.50; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.03, down 35 points. For the week, front month beans gained 65 3/4 cents, meal added $29.20 and oil rose 4 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower on the day and with big falls for the week. Southern Midwest areas are in for soaking rains over the weekend and into the early part of next week, according to the latest forecasts, although northern/eastern states will remain largely dry. Monday is Independence Day so US markets won't re-open until Tuesday. Informa predict the 2016 US corn yield will be 167.9 bu/acre, with national production reaching 14.531 billion bu (USDA June: 14.430 bbu). South Korea's Kocopia bought 55,000 MT of US corn for Aug/Sep shipment. In Brazil, Mato Grosso's safrinha corn harvest is 16% complete and Parana's is 15% done. In Argentina the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the corn harvest only advanced 3% on the week due to heavy rain. The harvest now stands at 41% complete. Production was left unchanged at 25 MMT. Russia said that they exported 4.28 MMT of corn in 2015/16, using preliminary data. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.53, down 5 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.60, down 5 1/2 cents. For the week Jul 16 corn was down 31 1/12 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The US winter wheat harvest was 45% done as of last Sunday night and should have advanced to around 60% complete by the time we get the next USDA crop progress report on Tuesday. Yesterday's USDA report was also bearish, adding to the negative tone for wheat. Wheat has closed lower 15 out of its last 17 sessions, closed at new lows today, and has now taken out the 2010 lows. Russia said that according to preliminary data they exported 34.47 MMT of grains in 2015/16, an 11% rise on 31 MMT the previous season, said Rusagrotrans. That total included 24.9 MMT of wheat and 4.28 MMT of barley. Top home was Egypt (6.4 MMT) followed by Turkey (4.3 MMT), Saudi Arabia (2.4 MMT) and Iran (2.2 MMT). In July they will export around 2.5-2.6 MMT, similar to that of a year ago, they added. The Russian harvest has produced 4.3 MMT of grains so far and yields are up 14%. Taiwan are in for 106,000 MT of US wheat. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the 2016/17 Argentine wheat crop was 61.5% planted. Production there should be sharply higher this year as plantings get back to "normal". Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/4, down 15 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.94 1/4, down 10 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00, down 8 1/4 cents. For the week CBOT wheat was 38 1/2 cents lower.