The Early Vibe

04/07/16 -- US markets are closed for Independence Day so the rest of us are left to paddle our own canoes.

Trade will likely be thin and fresh news scant therefore.

Strategie Grains are out early doors with their latest forecasts on EU oilseed production, estimating the EU-28 rapeseed crop at 21.24 MMT, some 3.1% down on last year. They see average yields at 3.37 MT/ha.

Their figure is a little below 22.00 MMT from Coceral late last week.

For sunflower Strategie Grains see production at 8.29 MMT, an 8.9% increase versus 2015/16 and soybean output is pegged at 2.38 MMT, a 3.5% rise on last year.

Ukraine say that the preliminary numbers indicate that they exported almost 40 MMT of grains in 2015/16 (a record volume). That included 17.35 MMT of wheat, 17.40 MMT of corn and 4.41 MMT of barley.

That's more even than Russia's record 34.47 MMT, and highlights exactly why EU prices have been in the doldrums for so long.

No joy then that both are expecting increased production in 2016/17.

On the no shortage of supply issue, the IGC Friday estimated the world cereal crop at a second largest ever 2026 MMT (outstripping consumption by 16 MMT even if the latter is at record levels).

They increased the global 2016/17 wheat crop by 7 MMT from their previous forecast to 729 MMT (736 MMT last year) and were unchanged on corn at 1003 MMT (969 MMT last year).

Heavy rains have improved prospects in Europe, North America and the CIS, they said.

The record carryover from 2015/16 means that the new season begins with the largest total supply ever, they added.