EU Grains Slip On Large Stocks, Harvest Pressure

25/08/16 -- EU grains finished mostly lower again. Chicago markets came in weak, with soybeans slipping below key support at $10/bushel, pressuring rapeseed.

The day ended with Nov 16 London down GBP0.95/tonne at GBP126.70/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.50/tonne firmer at EUR160.00/tonne, although the deferred months were mostly lower. Nov 16 corn was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR165.50/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed crashed EUR3.25/tonne to EUR375.50/tonne.

News from Defra that English wheat stocks as at the end of 2015/16 were an all-time high 2.7 MMT leaned bearish. Whilst not exactly a surprise, confirmation that last season's carryout was 34% higher than the previous year was bad news for the bulls, especially amidst the news that this season's harvest is throwing up some better than feared results.

The UK winter wheat harvest is 60% done, say the HGCA. They left yield estimates unchanged at 7.8-8.0 MT/ha, in line with the 5-year average 7.9 MT/ha.

"In the Eastern region, early wheat yields are typically just above the farm average. In contrast, in the Midlands, South East, Scotland and Wales yields are typically just below (1-3%) the average. In other regions, yields are around the farm average," they said.

Winter barley is 99% done, and 35% of the spring barley crop is now in the bin along with 50% of the oat harvest and 97% of the winter OSR.

More bearish news came from the announcement that Nord Cereales were suspending the delivery of wheat into their futures silo in Dunkirk from 29 Aug.

Brussels announced that they'd authorised 452 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week. That brings the total so far this campaign to 4.0 MMT. Some 80,000 MT worth of barley exports were also approved taking the YTD total to 975,000 MT.

SovEcon raised their forecast for this year's Russian wheat harvest to 73 MMT versus 71.3 MMT previously and 68.3 MMT a year ago.

FranceAgriMer said that the 2016 French wheat and spring barley harvests were finished.

Algeria said that it's 2016 harvest would be down around 40% after the worst drought in decades.