Chicago Grains Mixed Ahead Of USDA Stocks Numbers
29/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher helped by strong weekly export sales of 1,692,800 MT for 2016/17 being reported for China (833,600 MT) and unknown destinations (528,800 MT) among others. Trade estimates were for sales of 1.0 and 1.4 MMT. In addition, there were also sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year announced under the daily reporting system. The IGC raised their forecast for the global soybean crop by 4 MMT to 329 MMT, essentially due to increased production in America (now seen at 113 MMT). World ending stocks were however lowered 2 MMT to 29 MMT. Abiove estimated Brazil's crop at 101.3 MMT, with exports at 57 MMT. The USDA are 100 MMT and 58.4 MMT respectively. The USDA's quarterly stocks report tomorrow could provide further direction in this market which is trying to balance strong demand against record US production. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.50 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.56 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $297.90, down $1.80; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.09, up 45 points.
Corn: The market closed around unchanged levels. Weekly export inspections of 575,000 MT were reported for 2016/17. That was at the low end of expectations of 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Exports of 1,261,500 MT were reasonably robust however. The IGC cut the world corn crop by 3 MMT to 1027 MMT where "overly dry weather has affected crop prospects in the EU and China". They cut the EU to 59.5 MMT from 61.6 MMT previously, but still up from 58.2 MMT a year ago. China was lowered 2 MMT to 217 MMT. World ending stocks were down 2 MMT to 216 MMT. China offered another 4.7 MMT of reserve corn but found hardly any interest. Russia said that it's 2016 corn harvest was 21.2% complete at 3.2 MMT in bunker weight. Ukragroconsult lowered their forecast for Romanian corn production by 850 TMT to 8.1 MMT due to long-term drought. The size of the already large spec fund short in corn is a downside limiter for now, Tomorrow's stocks report isn't thought likely to be a "game changer" for corn, but you just never know with the USDA. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, unchanged; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, also unchanged.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales of 570,800 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 2 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was in line with trade estimates of 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT. Exports of 843,400 MT were a marketing-year high, up 53 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Japan also bought 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. There's some talk that wheat stocks could be lower than many in the trade anticipate in tomorrow's report due to increased wheat feeding as the wheat/corn price differential is relatively narrow. The average trade guess for stocks tomorrow is 2.438 billion bushels. There's increased talk of crop losses/quality damage to Australian wheat due to frost in the west and excessive wetness in the east. The IGC raised their forecast for the 2016/17 global wheat crop by 4 MMT to 747 MMT. Carryover stocks were increased 2 MMT to 231 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.99, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4, down 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.09 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
