EU Grains Little Changed - Sideways Pattern Continues

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 11:32 | Categorized as

30/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower on the day and mixed for the week. Trade largely continues to be confined to a sideways pattern.

The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.05/tonne at GBP127.05/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR1.25/tonne at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 corn was also EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR160.25/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was down EUR1.00/tonne to EUR375.75/tonne.

For the week London wheat was GBP0.35/tonne higher, Paris wheat was down EUR0.75/tonne, corn was EUR2.50/tonne lower and rapeseed was unchanged.

London wheat is up GBP4.10/tonne for the month on a front month basis and Paris wheat is up EUR5.50/tonne. Corn is up EUR0.50/tonne and rapeseed is up EUR3.00/tonne.

Not a lot has changed this week. Talk of possible quality issues to Canadian wheat caused by rain, and Australian wheat caused by frost/rain, continue to circulate.

Russia's harvest is nailed on the be record this year, although there are whispers over wheat quality there too.

As far as the harvest goes, that currently stands at 111.1 MMT off 90.3% of the planned area, according to the Ag Ministry. That includes 75.0 MMT of wheat (96.6% harvested), 18.7 MMT of barley (95.5%) and 3.3 MMT of corn (22%). All those weights are before cleaning and screening.

The head of the Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest was "outstanding" and predicted a final clean weight total of 113-116 MMT "maybe more". Plantings for next season are 65.4% complete on 11.3 million ha.

SovEcon forecast Russia's 2016/17 grain exports as high as 40 MMT, including 31 MMT of wheat. Both figures would set new records.

Ukraine are also chipping away at the old block, bringing in a grain harvest of 43.6 MMT so far (76% complete, including 4.8 MMT of corn off 22% of the planned area.

Autumn dryness though means that total winter grain plantings have only been completed on 3.14 million ha, some 334k ha less than this time last year which was also a year badly affected by drought. Wheat is 47% sown on 2.93 million ha and barley 11% done on 110k ha. Winter rapeseed has been sown on 712k ha, or 98% of the planned area. Emergence is said to be a problem.

Ukraine's grain exports so far this season stand at 10.22 MMT, of which 6.47 MMT is wheat, 3.11 MMT barley and 602 TMT corn.

Drought has cut this year;s Turkish wheat crop to 17.25 MMT (from 19.5 MMT a year ago), said the USDA's FAS. Barley production is down 36% to 4.75 MMT from 7.4 MMT. Turkey is a big importer of Russian grain.

Algeria is another country where drought has cut production this year. The 2016 wheat crop is seen at 2.0 MMT, down 26% from 2.7 MMT in 2015, and barley production has fallen 23% to 1.0 MMT. Imports are estimated steady at 8.0 MMT of wheat and 0.9 MMT of barley, say the FAS.

FranceAgriMer left the proportion of the French corn crop rated good to very good unchanged at 54% (56% a year ago which was also a poor year). The harvest is 4% complete (7% a year ago).