Chicago Grains Stage "Turnaround Tuesday"
27/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher, recovering from the 5-month lows hit earlier in the session which triggered bargain-hunting. The USDA announced another 120 TMT of US soybeans sold to China for the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Still, the possibility of further yield increases from the USDA in future WASDE reports remains an upside limiter. There may have been some short covering at the lows today ahead of Friday's stocks report from the USDA and the possibility of a surprise. Old crop ending stocks are guessed at around 200 million bushels, but there's a near 100 million difference between the highest and lowest guess. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.52 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.58 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $299.30, up $1.70; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.12, unchanged.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents higher, correcting some of yesterday's losses in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. Spillover support came from rallying beans and wheat. Good demand also supports - US corn export inspections have been above 1 MMT for 17 weeks in a row now following yesterday's numbers. US harvest pace is running behind average but there's time to catch up. US growers are capable of harvesting 25% of the crop in a week if the weather plays ball. The EU Commission's MARS lowered their forecast for EU corn yields this year from 7.23 MT/ha a month ago to 6.84 MT/ha, although that's still more than 6.31 MT/ha a year ago. France was cut to 7.65 MT.ha versus 8.36 MT/ha a year ago and 9.11 MT/ha for the 5-year average. Ukraine's 2016 corn harvest is 15% done at 3.17 MMT. Russia's is 20% complete at 3 MMT. China offered 1.2 MMT of corn at auction today but picked up no interest. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.31 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains. Short covering was noted. There's some talk of quality perhaps becoming an issue for Canadian and Australian wheat, but there's little hard evidence of this yet. Trade gossip suggests a shortage is quality wheat is looming this year. Some say that growers with quality wheat are hanging onto it. Others say they simply haven't got it. Japan are in for 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular Tuesday tender. Morocco tendered for more US SRW. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 33% planted. Russia is about 62% done. MARS lowered EU-28 soft wheat yields to 5.63 MT/ha from 5.86 MT/ha a month ago. French yields were cut to 5.62 MT/ha versus 7.92 MT/ha in 2015 and 7.34 MT/ha for the recent average. Argentina has turned cold and dry. "Temperatures in Argentina are quite cold with widespread freezing temperatures this week that could impact some of the developing wheat crop," said Dr Cordonnier. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04, up 8 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.19 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents.
