EU Grains Rise As Yield Forecasts Lowered

27/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly a little higher as the EU Commission's MARS unit lowered their forecast for EU wheat, corn and barley yields this year.

The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.10/tonne at GBP125.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.50/tonne at EUR161.50/tonne, Nov 16 corn was unchanged at EUR160.50/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was up EUR1.50/tonne to EUR375.25/tonne.

MARS cut average EU-28 corn yields from the 7.23 MT/ha predicted last month to 6.84 MT/ha. "In many regions, the analysis period (Aug 21-Sep 23) was one of the warmest on our records. Hot and dry conditions in eastern Romania, Bulgaria and southern Ukraine as well as in southern France and western Italy partially affected water supply and shortened the duration of grain filling in maize and sunflower crops, thus reducing yield expectations," they said.

Corn yields in France, Europe's largest producer, were pegged at only 7.65 MT/ha versus 8.36 MT/ha a year ago and 9.11 MT/ha for the 5-year average.

EU soft wheat yields were estimated at 5.63 MT/ha from 5.86 MT/ha a month ago. French yields were cut to 5.62 MT/ha versus 7.92 MT/ha in 2015 and 7.34 MT/ha for the recent average.

EU barley yields were also lowered from 4.85 MT/ha to 4.77 MT/ha, although those for rapeseed were left unchanged at 3.20 MT/ha.

In the UK, wheat yields were estimated at 8.08 MT/ha, barley yields at 6.08 MT/ha and rapeseed yields at 3.30 MT/ha.

In Ukraine, winter wheat for the 2017 harvest is said to be 33% planted, and winter OSR 94% done. Grain harvesting is 74% complete at 42 MMT, including a corn harvest that's 15% done at 3.17 MMT.

Russian winter plantings are 62% complete on 10.8 million ha (10.1 million this time last year). The Russian harvest is 88% complete at 109.2 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 73.9 MMT of wheat, 18.6 MMT of barley and 3 MMT of corn so far.

There's talk of heavy rain possibly causing late damage to the Australian wheat crop just before they begin harvesting. Eastern areas are set to receive up to 100mm of rain in the coming days, according to the forecasters.

"It is still early days, but if these worries are realised, Australian quality issues would follow similar issues reported in many of the world’s main wheat producing/exporting regions, such as Russia. Global feed grain markets, already feeling the pressure of expected record world supplies, could become even heavier," say the HGCA.

Sterling dropped to a 3-year low against the euro today, which should underpin London wheat going forward.

Dry conditions across many parts of Europe and Ukraine are said to be causing emergence problems for newly planted winter crops, rapeseed in particular.