Chicago Beans Close Higher On Hopes For A Clinton Victory
07/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. The trade awaits the outcome of the US presidential election and Wednesday's S&D report from the USDA. Weekend developments have allayed some of the trade fears over a possible Trump election victory, leading to higher trade today. Planting is going well in Brazil, with Safras estimating 82% of Matto Grosso and 73% of Parana is planted. IMEA estimate that Mato Grosso growers are only 28% sold on their new crop beans versus 47% committed this time a year ago. Weekly export inspections of 2.623 MMT were once again very impressive, even if they were only "in line" with trade estimates. On top of that we had the USDA announcing sales of 132,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China and 135,000 MT soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. After the close the USDA said that this year's US soybean harvest had climbed to 93% complete versus 87% a week ago and 91% on average at this time. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.89 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.98 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $311.90, up $2.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.79, up 8 points.
Corn: The market closed a couple of cents or so lower. Weekly export inspections of 889,609 MT were around trade estimates. The USDA also reported the sale of 172,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. US dollar strength today was a bit of a hindrance. Unlike in beans, for corn the market is expecting a small downwards correction in forecast yields from the USDA on Wednesday. IMEA estimate that the Brazilian grower in Mato Grosso is only 19% sold on his safrinha corn crop compared to a whopping 65% committed this time a year ago. After the close the USDA announced that this year's US corn harvest had advanced to 86% complete, up from 75% done a week ago and versus 85% for the 5-year average. Ukraine said that it had exported 550.4 TMT of corn via it's seaports last week. Harvesting there is said to be 67% complete at 16.87 MMT. Russia exported 112.6 TMT of corn via it's seaports last week. They've harvested 10.3 MMT of corn so far off 63.3% of the planted area. The French Ag Ministry estimated corn production there this year at 12.5 MMT, a 9% drop versus a year ago. Trade chatter suggests that the Brazilian livestock industry is substituting cheaper domestic wheat into the rations, displacing considerably more expensive corn. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.46 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.55 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on all three exchanges. Today's firmer US dollar, linked to renewed optimism for a Clinton victory in the upcoming US presidential election, was a bearish factor. Weekly export inspections came in at 494,154 MT - in line with trade expectations. The USDA had US winter wheat at 91% planted versus 86% a week ago and 92% on average at this time. Emergence is 79%, up 9 points from last week and one point ahead of the 5-year average. Winter wheat crop conditions were placed at 58% good to excellent, unchanged from last week and up from 51% this time a year ago. Some talk suggests that the driest areas of the Plains hard red wheat belt were by-passed by rains over the weekend. A few in the trade are making an issue of this dryness. European wheat is also dry ahead of winter dormancy. The Philippines are in the market for 165 TMT of feed wheat for Feb/Apr shipment. Talk of Brazilian wheat replacing corn in the rations is a little friendly. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 93% planted. Russian winter grains (mostly wheat) are said to be 98.2% planted. Ukraine seaports exported 221 TMT of wheat last week, and their Russian counterparts 337.8 TMT. Russia's Ag Ministry say that their wheat exports for the season to date are 10.61 MMT. The Russian 2016 wheat harvest is said to be 98.5% complete at 75.8 MMT. The French Ag Ministry forecast the 2016 soft wheat crop there to be 31% down on last year at 28.1 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.10, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.06 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents.
