Quiet Start To The Week For EU Grains
07/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed to start the week. London wheat was higher and the remainder of the complex generally lower.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.70/tonne at GBP138.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR160.25/tonne, expiring Nov 16 Paris corn fell EUR3.75tonne to EUR159.50/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.75/tonne easier at EUR390.00/tonne.
It was a quiet start to begin the week, with traders focusing their attention on the US presidential election and Wednesday's upcoming WASDE report from the USDA.
The French Ag Ministry lowered their forecast fro the 2016 French total grain crop from 55.4 MMT to 54.9 MMT - the smallest production since 2003. That includes a soft wheat crop that's down 31% year-on-year at 28.1 MMT, a 23% decline in barley output to 10 MMT and an ongoing corn harvest that's expected to come in 9% lower at 12.5 MMT.
APK Inform said that Ukraine's seaports exported 835.9 TMT of grains last week, down slightly from 851.5 TMT the previous week and 1 MMT the week before that. Wheat accounted for 221 TMT of that total, barley another 63.5 TMT and corn 550.4 TMT as the main export drive now starts to concentrate on the latter commodity.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that this year's corn harvest was 67% complete at 16.87 MMT. Winter wheat plantings for the 2017 harvest are 93% done, along with 80% of the expected winter barley area.
Russia's seaports exported 469.4 TMT of grain last week, up from 354.7 TMT the previous week. That included 337.8 TMT of wheat, 15.8 TMT of barley and 152.6 TMT of corn.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country's total grain exports to date are 1.3% down on a year ago at 13.13 MMT (wheat 10.61 MMT, barley 1.43 MMT and corn 1.03 MMT).
That means that around a third of the way through the season exports must maintain this pace right through to hit trade estimates of final grain exports of 38-40 MMT, including around 30 MMT of wheat. Russian exports would typically fall away somewhat during the second half of an average season.
The Russian Ministry place the 2016 harvest at 120.5 MMT off 95.3% of the planted area. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat, 19.1 MMT of barley and 10.3 MMT of corn (63.3% harvested).
Russian plantings for next year's harvest are said to be complete on 17.0 million ha (98.2% of the government target) versus 15.8 million ha this time a year ago.
Egypt's GASC tendered late in the day for wheat for Dec 10-20 shipment with the results expected tomorrow. Russian and Romanian origin have been the recent victors.
