Chicago Grains Close - Friday Night
04/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains on the day, but lower for the week. The trade will be looking to the USDA to clarify the strong demand/record production picture in next week's WASDE report. Benson Quinn note however that they've overestimated carryout and underestimated demand with this report in 8 of the last 10 years. The market is looking for the USDA to increase their 2016 US yield forecast from last month's 51.4 bu/acre forecast, in line with this week's higher projections from the likes of FCStone and Informa. Around 52.0 bu/acre is the best guess at the moment. Production might therefore increase to around a new record 4.314 billion bushels. Given the very strong early season demand that we've seen so far then they should also increase export demand. Nevertheless, carryout is estimated at 420 million, up 25 million from 395 million last month. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.81 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.90 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $309.00, up $2.60; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.71, down 39 points. For the week that puts nearby beans 20 1/4 cents lower, with meal down $8.50 and oil 70 points weaker.
Corn: Corn closed with small gains on the day but overall lower for the week. In next week's USDA report the average trade guess for US corn production is 15.017 billion bushels with a national average yield of 173.0 bu/acre. The USDA had production at 15.057 billion bushels and yields at 173.4 bu/acre a month ago. CF Industries are talking of new crop corn acres being as low as 88 million, down 6.5 million from this year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange puts Argentine corn planting at 39% as rains slow progress. As noted earlier in the week, Dr Cordonnier says that Argentine growers are reluctant to plant corn in November as it leads to pollination in January, often the hottest and driest month of the year. Of the corn that has been planted, 17% is rated as having excessive soil moisture, he adds. Ukraine reported their 2016 harvest to be 90% complete at 55.9 MMT. That includes 16.87 MMT of corn off 67% of the planted area so far. FranceAgriMer reported the French corn harvest to be 79% complete, up from 60% done a week ago and versus progress of 82% this time last year. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 3/4, up 3/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57 1/2, up 1/2 cent. For the week that puts Dec 16 down 6 1/4 cents, with Mar 17 losing 5 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed a touch higher on the day, but mixed for the week as a whole. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia joined CBH in estimating wheat output in the state at 9.04 MMT, down from its October figure of 10.4 MMT due to widespread and multiple frosts. Brussels granted 418 TMT worth of EU soft wheat export licences this past week, up from a paltry 220 TMT the previous week. That takes the total volume issued so far to 8.2 MMT, some 0.9 MMT (or 12.3%) more than this time a year ago. French winter wheat planting was said to be 78% complete versus 60% a week ago and 8 points down on a year ago. The delayed Canadian wheat harvest is still a concern, with Alberta and Saskatchewan both still having around 17% of their spring wheat crops out in the fields. The USDA's attache reports South Korean wheat imports will be up about 14.3% year-on-year. Despite reducing their overall commitment, fund money was still net short 130,689 contracts in Chicago wheat as of Tuesday night. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.14 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 1/2, up 1 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.10 1/4, up 1/2 cent. For the week that puts Chicago wheat up 5 3/4 cents, with Kansas gaining just 1/4 of a cent and Minneapolis shedding 14 1/4 cents.
