Chicago Grains Drift Lower As USD Hits 14-Year Highs
16/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed a little lower on reports that Brazilian cash markets are pricing themselves a bit more aggressively relative to the US. That didn't stop the USDA announcing another flash sale of 165,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year though. The trade will be expecting another strong figure in tomorrow's weekly export sales report to back up all this recent business - with figures of 1.2 and 1.5 MMT being mentioned - I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number isn't larger. Reports of decent growing conditions for much of South America is a negative, although some suggest that earlier rains in Argentina may have washed out some 600k ha of early planted beans. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.85 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $9.94 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $308.40, down $1.70; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.10, down 11 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents lower. The US Energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production to be up 15,000 barrels/day last week, taking the weekly total to just over 1 million/day again. Ethanol stocks were down 620,000 barrels. The US dollar index shrugs off the initial bearish reaction to last week's Trump election victory and trades at a 14 year high. The strong US dollar and weak Brazilian real were bearish - the real is down 9% in a week versus the USD. The Malaysian ringgit also continues to fall against the USD. Taiwan were reported to have purchased 65,000 MT of US corn for Feb/Mar shipment. Agritel forecast the French corn crop "not to exceed 11.5 MMT". Russia reported their 2016 corn harvest had now reached 70.9% complete for a crop of 11.7 MMT to date. Average yields are 5.71 MT/ha versus only 5.15 MT/ha a year ago. Trade expectations for tomorrow's USDA weekly export sales report are between 900,000 MT and 1.2 MMT. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.38 1/2, down 3 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.46 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with Chicago and Kansas lower and Minneapolis higher. Algeria were reported to have bought 400,000 MT of wheat for January delivery, with some suggesting that US origin may have figured in the mix. Japan are in the market for their regular weekly tender of 136,726 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat. Russia reported the last of their wheat harvest to be dragging it's heels. Harvesting there is 98.1% complete at 75.8 MMT. Barley harvesting is 97.2% done at 19.1 MMT. Russian winter grains are said to be sown on 17.2 million ha, or 99.3% of the government target. Ukraine said that their 2017 winter wheat crop is now 95% planted on 5.88 million ha. Kazakhstan reported a final 2016 bunker weight grain harvest of 23.7 MMT, or 21.4 MMT in clean weight. The USDA's FAS in Nigeria forecast the country's wheat import needs this season at 4.5 MMT. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report from the USDA are at 400,000 to 600,000 MT. Last week's sales were impressive for once at 769,600 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.97, down 2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.18 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents.
