UK Wheat Exports More Than Double Jul/Sep

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:08 | Categorized as

16/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly higher on the day. London wheat was lower on ideas that maybe yesterday's gains were a bit overdone.

At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.90/tonne at GBP139.05/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.00/tonne at EUR164.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.50/tonne firmer also at EUR164.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR392.25/tonne.

The latest UK customs figures show wheat exports for the first three month of the marketing year (Jul/Sep) came in at 711.7 TMT - more than double the same period in 2015/16. Fellow (for now) EU countries took 580.9 TMT of that total, up 181% versus last season.

The largest home was the Netherlands (184.1 TMT), followed by Spain (144.4 TMT) and then France (85.2 TMT). Also featuring high on the list were unusual destinations such as Vietnam (66 TMT) and Algeria (60 TMT).

The weak pound and failure of this year's French wheat crop are clearly providing the UK with a window of export opportunity.

UK wheat imports Jul/Sep were down slightly on year ago levels at 426.1 TMT, with Canada (92.7 TMT) the largest provider.

UK corn imports fell 11% Jul/Sep to 390.9 TMT. France was the biggest supplier, although imports from this direction were down 13% at 159.7 TMT.

Can/will this trend continue? UK feed wheat prices (delivered, East Anglia) have risen to their narrowest discount to imported corn (any origin, CIF optional ports) for nearly a year, the HGCA point out. More importantly maybe for UK wheat prices is that "currency volatility has made UK wheat trading essentially currency trading by proxy," they add. The direction of sterling versus the euro and USD for the remainder of the season therefore remains all important.

In other news, Algeria were reported to have bought 400,000 MT of possibly US, German and Baltic origin wheat in a tender.

Ukraine said that their 2017 winter wheat crop is now 95% planted on 5.88 million ha. Winter barley sowing is said to be 84% done on 866k ha.

Russian winter grains are said to be sown on 17.2 million ha, or 99.3% of the government target.

The German Oilseeds Association forecast OSR plantings there to increase 1.5% to 1.35 million ha for the 2017 harvest.