Nogger's Blog

15/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. NOPA announced the third heaviest crush on record, at 164.64 million bushels this was well above analysts expectations of 160.48 million. FCStone said that "164.6 million is approaching industry capacity and it will take another motivated producer to push the limits again in the November number." Adding to the strong demand theme, the USDA announced 121,500 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China and 126,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. With the US harvest now all but done, attention is turning to South America where the 2016/17 crop has largely been/is being sown in a very timely manner under good conditions for early establishment. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $9.89 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $9.98, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $310.10, up $0.20; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 34.21, up 26 points.

Corn: The market closed around 4 cents higher. The US corn harvest is also winding down, with no further weekly crop progress reports expected from the USDA after next Monday. This leaves the corn market looking elsewhere for impetus. As with beans, South American corn planting is going well. Unlike beans, the area sown is likely to be sharply higher for 2016/17 too, especially in Argentina. In Brazil a return to "normal" yields should also boost production considerably. Other news being discussed is a Chinese crackdown on speculative trading, and what impact that might have on the grains sector. Russia said that their 2016 corn harvest was 70.1% complete at 11.6 MMT. They are expecting a record crop this year, with exports at all-time highs too. Ukraine's corn harvest is 77% complete at 20.22 MMT. They are now gearing up their export effort to concentrate on corn. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.41 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.49 1/4, up 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, helped by firmer corn and soybeans, but lacking a strong fundamental reason of it's own to rally. Yesterday's very poor weekly export inspections number of less than 200 TMT was still ringing in traders' ears. The National Australia Bank forecast the wheat crop there at 27.6 MMT, unchanged from a month ago. Better production prospects from South Australia, NSW and Victoria seem to be outweighing the frost reduced expectation of Western Australia. For the first 14 weeks of 2016/17 Canadian wheat exports (excluding durum) were down 24% at 3.76 MMT. The USDA has Canadian all wheat exports to decline only 3% year-on-year in 2016/17. The Russian Ag Ministry forecast their 2016/17 grain exports at 35-40 MMT. They said that this year's grain harvest was 95.8% done at 122 MMT. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat off 98.1% of the planned area. Winter plantings for 2017 are almost complete on 17.2 million ha. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.18 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.25 1/2, up 5 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.18, up 2 1/4 cents.