USDA Numbers - Wheat Acres Surprise


All wheat plantings for the 2009 crop were 42.098 million acres, substantially lower than the average trade guess of 44.178 million acres, and around 4 million below last season's 46.181 million. The lowest trade estimate for wheat plantings was 42.920 million acres, so this number from the USDA was almost 1 million acres lower than anybody else anticipated, and also double the decrease that had been estimated at 9% down as opposed to the 4.5% expected.

Wheat ending stocks were 655 million bushels, against average expectation of 600 million bushels, and compared last year's 306 million.


The final 2008 corn crop was pegged at 12.010 billion bushels, slightly above the average estimate of 11.982 billion bushels. In November, the USDA put corn at 12.020 billion bushels, and 2007's crop was a record 13.074 billion bushels.

Corn ending stocks were 1.790 billion bushels, substantially higher than the average estimate of 1.489 billion bushels.


The final 2008 output was 2.959 billion bushels, versus the average trade guess of 2.910 billion bushels, and compared to November's guess of 2.921 billion and the 2007 total of 2.676 billion. Analysts’ estimates ranged from 2.879 billion to 2.940 billion bushels, so this figure was higher that anyone had anticipated.

Soybean ending stocks were 225 million bushels compared to the average estimate of 186 million bushels.