Early Call On Chicago

The overnight markets closed with beans around 10-12c easier, corn down 1-2c and wheat mixed, mostly 2c higher to 2c lower.

Consolidation ahead of Friday's USDA report is a likely theme this afternoon. Lower production and ending stocks are what the trade is anticipating.

Export sales are a day later coming out due to Monday's holiday, so we won't get those until tomorrow either.

On the 2010 production side the trade is expecting US corn output at 13.199 billion (Aug USDA 13.365) with yields of 163.1 bu/acre. For soybeans 3.406 billion (Aug USDA 3.433) is the average guess with yields at 43.8 bu/acre.

Old crop corn end stocks are estimated at 1.412 billion bu versus the August USDA figure of 1.426 billion. New crop corn is expected at 1.125 billion compared to the August USDA number of 1.312 billion.

Old crop soybeans stocks are estimated at 151 million (Aug USDA 160), with new crop pegged at 304 million (Aug USDA 360).

Wheat 2010/11 end stocks are seen falling to 877 million vs August's USDA estimate of 952 million. For wheat in particular global production and ending stocks numbers will also be scrutinised.

Corn is expected to start lower today on profit-taking as some nervous longs exit the market in case the USDA has a surprise up their sleeves. Beans are also seen lower as the market has a few nerves over the longevity of bumper Chinese demand as the authorities clamp down on speculation in commodities and announce further possible measures to curb the real estate market.

The USDA have just announced another Chinese soyoil purchase - 60,000 MT of new crop. They also announced 220,000 MT of wheat sold to "unknown".

Japan bought 129,482 MT of wheat in its regular weekly tender, split between US, Canadian and Australian origins.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12c, corn flat to down 2c and wheat up 2-4c.