Nogger's Blog

13/06/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with beans 2-4c lower, corn 1 1/2c higher on old crop July but 4 1/2c lower on new crop Dec, and wheat 4 1/4c higher on front month July then mixed either side.

Crude is 75c weaker on reports that Saudi Arabia is to go it alone and ramp up production anyway, despite getting the thumbs down from OPEC last week. The dollar is weaker on rising US unemployment and signs of a faltering in the global economic recovery.

Not a lot has changed weather-wise from last week with extensive flooding along the Missouri River and parts of the Mississippi.

The USDA will report tonight on corn and soybean planting progress and also winter wheat harvesting. Spring wheat plantings will also be in the limelight.

Corn plantings may have moved up from 94% to around 97%, and that is likely to be about as far as they do progress. Soybean plantings have more time and are expected to go from 68% to somewhere in the top 80's done. Spring wheat planting was 79% complete last week.

European grains are lower after decent weekend rains and the outlook for more in many parts.

The clock is ticking on the early barley harvest in Ukraine, and also on the re-opening of the Russian export season. Some trade talk suggests that Russia may follow Ukraine and install some sort of export duty system. My contacts over there however suggest that this is unlikely.

Corn bulls will doubtless be setting their sights on attempting to break through USD8/bu this week, having only failed by a whisker to crash through that mark for the first time in history last week.

We've got to wait until Thursday's export sales report to see how much rationing is taking place with corn values where they are. As that seems likely to include last week's sale to Mexico of 822,960 MT then we should see export sales of around 1.2-1.5 MMT.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 1-3c; old crop corn up 1-3c, new crop down 2-4c; soybeans down 2-4c.