Nogger's Blog

19/10/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed, mostly a tad higher with wheat up 2-4 cents, corn 2-3 cents higher and beans flat to 2 cents lower.

In a desperately uninspiring market it seems that everything is on hold waiting to see what will come of this weekends summit of EU financial leaders.

France and Germany are said to have struck a deal to increase the bailout fund to EUR2 trillion, although exactly where the money is going to come from is unclear. Is this a real EUR2 trillion or a smoke and mirrors Monopoly money EUR2 trillion?

Even so, it might sound like a lot but is it enough? Relative minnows Greece have EUR330 billion of outstanding debt on their own with Italy's and Spain's coming in at a combined EUR2.5 trillion. And those figures don't include the knock on effect of how many times those billions and trillions have been passed around the room.

As well as everyone in Europe owing money to everyone else in Europe we've also got other countries exposure to European debt too. In the case of the UK for example (as at the end of March 2011) the US was exposed to $715 billion (EUR516 billion) of UK debt - more than any other nation. Out of interest Japan and Australia also featured in that particular league table in seventh and eight position.

If we're talking about a game of musical chairs then there's maybe twenty or so big players circling the room and only one chair in the centre, the most that is likely to come out of this weekend's summit is that there'll be two chairs in the middle of the room on Monday. Let's hope the music keeps playing, because it's going to get very messy if and when it stops.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 3-5 cents, corn up 2-3 cents and beans flat to 2 cents higher.