Chicago Grains Manage Light Consolidation
24/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. There's some supportive chatter that US soybean plantings may have been lower this year than the current USDA estimate suggests. "In its acreage update released last Friday, Informa cut harvested soybean acres by 1.2 million to 82.9 million vs. USDA’s estimate of 84.1 million," noted Benson Quinn Commodities. Still, very impressive early soybean yields continue to keep being reported, so it's possible that some, if not all, of any planted shortfall could be compensated for by this. The USDA's next chance to adjust their numbers is with next month's WASDE report due Oct 10. Before that we get the Sept 1 quarterly grain stocks report due next Tuesday, Sep 30. Trade estimates for that are for soybean stocks of 126 million bushels, according to a Reuters survey. A Bloomberg survey puts the figure at 131 million. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are as high as 4 MMT+ on soybeans, largely due to the inclusion of much of last week's "showcase" deal with China to import 4.8 MMT of US beans. US weather forecasts remain non-threatening. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.36 3/4, up 1/2 cent; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.45 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $316.40, down $0.70; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.62, up 39 points.
Corn: The corn market essentially reversed yesterday's losses, ending the day 4 cents higher. As with soybeans, there's widespread talk of lower US corn plantings this year than the current USDA estimate. Also, as with beans, reports keep filtering through of exceptional US corn yields this year, so one may compensate for the other. US weather forecasts remain conducive to good harvest progress to be made and the firm US dollar is an inhibiting factor. The corn harvest is underway in Russia and Ukraine. Prices are now below GBP100/tonne FOB sterling equivalent in the latter. Romania said that it is expecting a second bumper corn crop in a row, with production seen at close to last season's record 11.5 MMT. Exports are also thought likely to be similar to last season's 3.4 MMT. FranceAgriMer confirmed that a much larger proportion than normal (45%) of this year's French wheat crop is only feed grade, which will be offered onto the market in direct competition to corn. France is also expecting a record corn crop this year. A Bloomberg survey shows analysts expecting Sept 1 corn stocks to be 1.191 billion bushels next week. A Reuters survey says 1.185 billion. Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 23,000 MT of US corn Nov–Dec shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are 500 TMT to 1 MMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.29 1/2, up 4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.42 1/4, up 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market managed modest gains. "Russian harvest progress continues to point to wheat production in a range of 61 to 63 MMT," noted Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA are currently "only" at 59 MMT. The Russian's say they have harvested 55.5 MMT in bunker weight so far off 77.2% of the intended area. Russian grain exports are showing signs of slowing. Rusagrotrans said that the country will export 3.0 MMT of grains in October, down from 3.8 MMT in September and the record 4.7 MMT shipped out in August. The October total is still ahead of last year's 2.48 MMT however. Market talk suggests that Nigeria has bought 40,000 MT of US soft red winter wheat. Ethiopia are tendering for 200,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Jan shipment. Japan are tendering to import 93,000 MT feed barley. Qatar are in the market for 40,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat. Reuters reported that heavy rain in Brazil is disrupting what is forecast to be a record wheat harvest this year. The harvest has already begun in Parana state. A Bloomberg survey shows the average trade estimate for Sept 1 US wheat stocks is 1.910 billion bushels. A Reuters survey says 1.880 billion. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 350-600 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.80 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.38, up 3 1/2 cents.
