Nogger's Blog

29/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed sharply higher once more. "Logistic woes getting meal via railcar into eastern processor market has the feeder double booking needs with trucks while the exporter needs to keep pipeline moving to meet record pace of meal export sales," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Heavy fund buying, estimated at around 15,000 contracts on beans and a further 5-8,000 on meal was also a bullish factor. Dec 14 meal is now up almost $100/tonne since the beginning of October. Reuters report that US sellers have sold a record 6.245 MMT of soymeal for export this season, of which only 230 TMT has been shipped so far. Argentine farmers have only sold 65% of their 2013/14 soybean crop versus 75% a year ago, said the Ag Ministry there. Planting of the Argentine 2014/15 soybean crop is now underway. Brazilian weather is improving, with good rains in the forecast to aid delayed planting there. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the region of 1.0 to 1.5 MMT. Oil World said that they expect soyoil prices to rise in the Oct-Mar time frame, further increasing demand for beans. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.43, up 35 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.49, up 34 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $397.20, up $22.10; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 34.18, up 139 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with strong gains, aided by spillover sentiment from the soya pit. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production up to 937,000 barrels/day versus 896,000 barrels/day a week ago, that's the largest weekly grind since mid-August. Ethanol stocks fell to 17 million barrels, down from 17.9 million barrels a week earlier. Increased production, but lower stocks leans bullish for corn. Ukraine said that it's 2014 grain harvest was now 90% complete at almost 55 MMT, including 18.4 MMT of corn to date. Russia said that it's 2014 grain harvest was 95.5% done at 107.7 MMT. The Russian corn harvest is now almost 80% done, producing a crop of 9.6 MMT to date. The Argentine Ag Ministry reported that growers there have sold almost 82% of their 2013/14 corn crop versus 80% a year ago. Delayed soybean planting in Brazil still fosters the belief that plantings/yields of second crop corn could also now be affected. Fund buying in corn was estimated at a net 7,000 contracts on the day. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 700-900 TMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.75 1/4, up 10 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, with fund money buying an estimated net 3,000 lots in Chicago. The jungle drums continue to suggest that all is not well with wheat prospects in Russia for next year. Their 2015 wheat crop could fall to 46.5 MMT from 58.5 MMT this year, said IKAR - echoing recent comments made by SovEcon that next year's crop could be below 50 MMT due to poor establishment leading to increased winterkill possibilities and reducing yield potential. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the 2014 wheat harvest was now 95.5% done on 23.5 million hectares, producing a crop of 61.4 MMT in bunker weight to date. Jordan bought 100 TMT of optional origin feed barley for April/May shipment in a tender. They are also tendering for a similar quantity of wheat. India announced that it was increasing the price it pays local farmers for wheat by 3.6% for the 2015 harvest to encourage plantings and increase it's food security. They already pay growers well in excess of world prices for wheat. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are a modest 300-400 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.38 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.06 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.82 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.