W/e 10/02/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day and for the week. The market was buoyed Friday by the announcement of 140 TMT worth of US soybeans sold to unknown for 2016/17 shipment. In their latest WASDE report the USDA were unchanged on their outlook for Brazilian soybean production this year (104 MMT), but lowered Argentina by 1.5 MMT to 55.5 MMT. They also reported US soybean export commitments so far this season at 51 MMT, a 21% increase year-on-year. This is also only 4.8 MMT away from it's current forecast for full season exports of 55.8 MMT. In other news China reported that they'd imported 7.66 MMT of soybeans in January, 35% more than last year. In Brazil, IMEA reported the soybean harvest 45.8% complete in Mato Grosso, versus only 25.6% done at this time last year. Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.59, up 8 1/2 cents; May 17 Soybeans settled at $10.70, up 8 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybean Meal settled at $342.10, up $3.70; Mar 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.61, down 06 points. Mar 17 beans were up 32 cents compared with last Friday.
Corn: The market closed higher on the day and versus last Friday. In Chicago the Mar 17 contract closed at the best levels on a front month since late June 2016. The USDA this week raised their estimate for the size of the global 2016/17 crop by more than 2 MMT to 1040 MMT. However they also upped consumption by 6 MMT and cut carryout by 2.5 MMT. Chinese corn usage was projected 4 MMT larger, mostly from increased feed usage. The USDA also reduced the size of this season's EU-28 corn crop, marking that down to 60.3 MMT, with ending stocks cut to 4.75 MMT, the lowest level since 2007. Record corn production for 2016/17 reflected larger crops in both Ukraine and Mexico more than offsetting lower production in the EU, they said. "Robust demand in both Iran and Vietnam support a higher volume of global exports. Moreover, a smaller barley crop in Iran boosts the demand for (other) imported feedstuffs," they added. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.74 1/2, up 5 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.82, up 4 3/4 cents. For the week that puts Mar 17 corn up 9 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, with Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settling at $4.49, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat ending at $4.60 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents and Mar 17 MGEX Wheat finishing the day at $5.72 1/2, up 4 cents. For the week that puts nearby Chicago wheat up 18 3/4 cents, with the Kansas market 20 cents higher and Minneapolis up 14/14 cents. For Chicago wheat this was a more than 7-month closing high for a nearby contract. In their February WASDE report the USDA said that "prices for most wheat classes were up during the month of January, underpinned by 2017/18 US crop prospects as well as a weakening dollar." They also noted that "the growing gap between HRS and most other wheat classes is indicative of tight supplies of high-protein wheat in the global market." US 2016/17 wheat exports were raised 1.5 MMT to 27.5 MMT, whilst Russia's were lowered 0.5 MMT to 28.5 MMT. World ending stocks were lowered from 253.3 MMT to 248.6 MMT.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP0.40/tonne at GBP147.80/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR171.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was up EUR0/.25/tonne at EUR173.00/tonne and May 17 Paris rapeseed rose EUR3.25/tonne to EUR421.75/tonne.
For the week that places nearby London wheat GBP0.45/tonne higher, with Paris wheat up EUR2.50/tonne, corn EUR1.50/tonne firmer and rapeseed up EUR9.00/tonne.
The USDA this week cut their estimate for the size of the 2016/17 global wheat crop by more than 4 MMT to 748.2 MMT and raised consumption by 0.5 MMT to 740.4 MMT. World ending stocks were lowered from 253.3 MMT to 248.6 MMT.
That helped Chicago wheat futures climb to more than 7 month highs, supporting the European market.
The USDA also reduced the size of this season's EU-28 corn crop, marking that down to 60.3 MMT, with ending stocks cut to 4.75 MMT, the lowest level since 2007.
Brussels reported 215 TMT worth of EU soft wheat exports this week, taking the cumulative total so far this season to 15.1 MMT, a 7% decline year-on-year
IKAR said that they expect 2017/18 Russian wheat production at 67.5 MMT, down from their estimate of 73.3 MMT for this season, but see exports holding steady at around 28 MMT.
UK prices remain expensive compared to the rest of the world, reflecting relatively tight availability in the face of strong demand from the biothethanol sector.
"Wheat used by the GB milling industry (including starch and bioethanol) over the first half of the season (Jul-Dec), totalled 3.65 MMT, according to latest data published by Defra...this is 10% higher than the same period last season and the highest amount of wheat milled at this point on records going back to 1997," noted the HGCA.