19/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day but higher for the week. The 30 and 90 day forecasts show a normal precipitation pattern through to harvest-time. Strong demand, especially from China underpins. The USDA announced another 261,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system today. Such announcements are now becoming an almost daily occurrence. Talk of a wholesale switch to corn production in Brazil and Argentina next season will only serve to keep the supply pipeline tight on beans through 2016/17 it seems. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27, down 5 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.04 1/2, down 10 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $330.00, down $4.40; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.14, down 5 points. For the week front month beans gained 13 3/4 cents, meal fell $2.90 and oil added 224 points.
Corn: Corn closed firmer on the day and for the week. Fresh news was hard to come by today. FranceAgriMer lowered French corn crop ratings 5 points to 63% good/very good. The Argentine harvest is now said to be 85% done at 24.3 MMT. The trade is looking forward to next week's Pro Farmer crop tour to see if the USDA's bumper 175 bu/acre yield is pie in the sky. Twitter is full of reports suggesting that it is. Nevertheless, the US crop is likely to be record large again this year. High domestic prices will encourage the South American grower to switch acres significantly into corn for 2016/17 the market suggests. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimates corn production there this year to reach 26 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.34 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.43 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents. For the week Sep 16 was up 12 cents and Dec 16 gained 10 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, with MGEX wheat gaining the most on the day and for the week. Russia's wheat harvest is 54.4% done and has already reached the 53.5 MMT mark if official figures are correct. The AG Ministry there now suggest that total grain exports in 2016/17 might reach the 40 MMT mark, well ahead of 33.9 MMT last season - and that itself was a record. The French wheat harvest is now almost over at 97% complete as of Monday. The UK harvest is 40% done, but forecast heavy and widespread rains over the weekend will stall progress here. EU soft wheat export licences are currently running 24% ahead of last year's pace, with Romanina particularly active. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.27, unchanged; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30 3/4, up 3 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was up 4 1/2 cents, Kansas added 2 1/2 cents and Minneapolis put on 14 3/4 cents. Short covering in Minneapolis wheat continues be a feature.
19/08/16 -- EU grains closed mostly higher on the day and for the week, with the exception of Paris wheat.
The day ended with benchmark Nov 16 GBP0.25/tonne higher at GBP132.00/tonne. Sep 16 Paris wheat traded down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR162.75/tonne, although other months were a touch firmer. Nov 16 corn was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR166.75/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR378.00/tonne.
On the weekly chart, London wheat added GBP1.25/tonne, Paris wheat fell EUR1.75/tonne, corn was EUR1.50/tonne firmer and rapeseed gained EUR8.50/tonne.
Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding French production this year, Paris wheat is struggling to gather much upside momentum. London wheat is getting more support from the ailing value of the pound than anything else, and rapeseed is simply following whatever Chicago soybeans do.
The latter are underpinned by strong export demand for US beans from China, and anything approaching the $10/bu mark is viewed as good value. With Brazilian supplies already very tight despite another big crop there again this year, and Argentine offers firming, the US is at an advantage to market a record crop of it's own in 2016/17. That should keep prices steady and lend support to rapeseed futures too.
Wheat supply and demand remains balanced between tightening supplies in Europe and bumper production elsewhere, not least Russia where this year's grain harvest has now reached 77.4 MMT off only 51.7% of the projected area.
That makes official estimates for a grain harvest of around 110-118 MMT look conservative. Wheat output so far this year is said to be at 53.5 MMT off 54.4% of the expected area. Again this makes official forecasts for a crop of around 69-72 MMT look low.
The Russian Ag Ministry today forecast 2016/17 total grain exports at nearly 40 MMT, eclipsing last season's record 33.9 MMT very comfortably indeed.
For now the trade is debating the viability of such numbers. Has Russia got the infrastructure to adequately store, move and ship such a volume, especially once the winter months arrive? Only time will tell.
If there are to be any supply disruptions than they could provide an opportunity for Europe, and even possibly the US to step in and make some unexpected sales.
For now EU wheat exports are running ahead of last year's pace by 24% following yesterday's release of 538 TMT worth of export licences by Brussels. A week ago though this figure was 31%. Barley exports meanwhile are down 60% year-on-year.
On the international front, Tunisia bought 50,000 MT of hard wheat in a tender. Jordan are in the market for 100,000 MT of feed barley.
18/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed mixed, either side of unchanged. Weekly export sales came in at 177,900 MT for 2015/16 and 1,597,900 MT on new crop primarily for unknown destinations (827,000 MT) and China (694,200 MT). Exports of 865,100 MT were down 14 percent from the previous week, but up 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Strong demand and a lack of competitive offers out of South America underpins the market. The market is thinking that this demand means that a record crop isn't so much of a burden to world supplies in 2016/17 as a necessary requirement. China are offering 600 TMT of state-owned beans up for auction tomorrow. An insipid response is expected due to the age/condition of what is on offer. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.32 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.14 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $334.40, down $2.30; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.19, up 18 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a cent or two firmer. Old crop sales are winding down. Weekly export sales of 167,400 MT for 2015/16 were a marketing-year low - down 72 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. New crop sales of 1,042,700 MT were better, reported primarily for Mexico (425,200 MT), unknown destinations (269,300 MT), and Japan (152,400 MT). Exports of 1,166,300 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cumulative new crop sales are 10.1 MMT vs just 6.6 MMT this time last year. Under the daily reporting system the USDA also reported 101,600 MT of US corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange say that Argentine growers will increase corn plantings 25% for next season to 4.5 million ha (3.6 million this season). Planting begins a few weeks from now. Ukraine said that thy'd exported 444 TMT of corn so far this season. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.32, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.42, up 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch firmer. Weekly export sales of 489,500 MT for 2016/17 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. These included 92,000 MT for Brazil. Exports of 717,900 MT were a marketing-year high - up 77 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Brazil (164,600 MT), Japan (127,500 MT), Nigeria (65,800 MT), Mexico (63,300 MT) and Taiwan (53,000 MT). Japan bought 87,430 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their regular weekly tender. Jordan bought 50 TMT of feed barley at $189 C&F and are in the market for a further 100,000 MT. Tunisia tendered for 42 TMT of durum wheat. Ukraine said that they'd exported 2.43 MMT of wheat and 1.90 MMT of barley so far this season. The EU approved 538,000 MT of soft wheat export licenses this week. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.27, up 1 cent; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.27 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
18/08/16 -- EU grains traded mixed. London wheat gave up some of the recent gains that pushed prices to 18-month highs on the back of a slight improvement in sterling.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.95/tonne at GBP131.75/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR163.50/tonne, Aug Paris corn was unchanged at EUR166.25/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.00/tonne at EUR377.75/tonne.
The pound was firmer following much better than expected UK retail sales numbers for July.
It's worth noting that currently London wheat's fortunes are much more closely linked to the movement of the pound than fluctuations in the international wheat markets. Indeed, since the Brexit vote of the 14% gain that we have seen in Nov 16 London wheat, 11% of it is down to currency weakness (that's how much the pound is down against the euro during this time). The French wheat market has only seen a 3% gain during this period. despite the wholesale demise of their crop.
Good weather this week means that the French wheat harvest raced to 97% complete as of Monday, say FranceAgriMer. That's up from 87% a week ago and vs 99% done this tome last year.
French spring barley is 97% harvested against 78% last week and 100% last year at this time.
French corn crop condition ratings dropped 5 points in the good to very good categories to 63%.
Reuters reported that France is set to import Bulgarian wheat for the first time since the 2010/11 season, possibly to be re-exported to the US under a deal done some time ago. They are also said to be importing smaller quantities of UK wheat as well as the larger volumes of Romanian wheat already announced.
Brussels granted 538 TMT worth of soft wheat (season to date total 3.56 MMT) and 13 TMT worth of barley export licenses this past week along with 141 TMT of corn import licenses.
The HGCA/ADAS reported that the UK wheat harvest is now 40% complete with yields averaging 7.8-8.0 MT/ha. The winter barley harvest was 95% complete and winter oilseed rape harvest 90% complete, with only small areas left to harvest in northern England and Scotland, they said.
Good progress was made on the harvest of spring barley predominantly in the English regions (around 115,000 ha), bringing the harvest to 20% complete, they added.
An average UK yield of 7.9 MT/ha would produce a UK wheat crop of 14.17 MMT using official planting estimates of 1.794 million ha (16.44 MMT last year).
Ukraine said it had exported 4.85 MMT of grains so far this season, including 2.43 MMT of wheat, 444 TMT of corn and 1.90 MMT of barley. They've also exported 339 TMT of oilseeds. Good weather means that autumn/winter plantings for 2017 will increase 4% to 7.3 million ha, their Ag Ministry says. Wheat woild typically account for around 55% of the total area planted.
17/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on strong demand for US product. Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 381,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. They also corrected an Aug 4 announcement for 129,000 MT of corn sold to unknown for 2016/17 to be soybeans. Media reports suggest that 2 of 6 Cargill owned soybean processing plants in Brazil and 2 of 5 Louis Dreyfus facilities are idle due to "the current S&D situation" ie. a lack of beans. Given that Brazil won't even start planting again for new crop until Sep 16 then this situation could continue, if not get worse, for some considerable time. Argentine farmers are said to be reluctant sellers due to currency/inflation considerations. This gives the US a large window of opportunity to market it's record 2016 crop. "Without an expansion in acreage and a normal yield in Brazil the world carryout to use ratio falls to equal the situation of 2012," noted FCStone. Both Brazil and Argentine growers are expected to plant more corn for 2016/17. Name your price America. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.30 1/2, up 11 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.16, up 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $336.70, unchanged; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.01, up 63 points.
Corn: The market closed with small gains. Weekly ethanol production tied at the all-time high of 1.029 million barrels per day. Brazil continues to be a buyer and importer of US ethanol as their production has shifted towards sugar and away from bio-fuel. They are a buyer of US corn too as their safrinha crop falls victim to drought and exporters pay the price for being extremely aggressive marketeers earlier in the season, a situation similar to that on beans. Fund money still holds a sizable short position in corn, and is credited for covering in around 8,000 lots opf that short today. The ProFarmer crop tour kicks off next week, traders will be looking to that to see if the USDA's record 175 bu/acre yield estimate released last week holds water. Many are discounting this figure as being too high, at least for now. The Delta continues to receive more rain than it needs, stalling harvest activity there. The 5-day forecast has more modest rainfall in it, but spread over a wider area. Temperatures are expected to moderate in the 6-10 day forecast. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.30 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.39 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer. Russian grain production estimates are creeping ever higher, so much so that analysts are now questioning their ability to safely store a 115-118 MMT crop. Logistics in exporting record volumes in 2016/17 are also being questioned. Meanwhile the EU crop keeps getting smaller with the focus now on Germany, who's DRV yesterday cut production estimates for wheat, barley, corn and OSR citing adverse weather conditions. If Europe hasn't got it to sell, and Russia has problems shipping it then there may be an opportunity for US wheat to make some inroads to North African/Middle Eastern homes later in the season. Russian growers are also said to be disheartened by current low prices and are looking to hold wheat in the hope that things move higher. Winter planting for the 2017 harvest is already underway in both Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine shippers are aggressive with their offerings now, but are likely to be sold out on wheat come the spring. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26, up 2 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/4, up 7 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.
17/08/16 -- EU grains finished mostly higher on the day. Sterling weakness continues to provide support for London wheat, indeed the majority of the recent gains can be attributed to post-Brexit currency weakness rather than anything else.
The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP132.70/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR163.25/tonne, Aug corn was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR166.25/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed jumped EUR6.25/tonne to EUR379.75/tonne.
The other developing storyline in the grains market is one of significantly lower EU production this year matched by sharply higher FSU output.
In theory one simply balances out the other. If you're Egypt and want wheat you simply pick up the phone to Russia (or Ukraine) and hang up on France for the next 12 months.
Or is it really as simple as that? Has Russia/Ukraine got the quality that you want? Can they guarantee to supply it exactly when you want, what about Dec 20-31 for example? They could be under 6 foot of snow by then.
Moreover, if the quality you are getting from them now is OK, what's it going to be like come the spring? Neither country is after all renowned for their prime quality storage facilities. What will their wheat be like come, say March, especially in a bumper production year such as this one?
The President of the Russian Grain Union today estimated the 2016 harvest at 114-118 MMT, including 69.5 MMT of wheat and ending stocks of 16 MMT. He went on to highlight the lack of adequate storage and Russia's ability to efficiently handle such a crop.
The President of Rusagrotrans raised his estimate for this year's grain harvest from 115.8-116 MMT to 118.5 MMT (with wheat upped from 70-71 MMT to 72-73 MMT) and barley increased from 18.3 MMT to 19.5 MMT.
This will be the best harvest since 1978, he said (up 13% from 104.8 MMT in 2015). Yet, August exports are only forecast at 3.5 MMT versus 4.2 MMT a year ago, partly due to grower disenchantment with current low prices.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated 2016 grain production at 63 MMT, up 5% on last year, including 26 MMT of corn.
The EU trade seems to currently be thinking that there will be buyers for this season's reduced export availability, and that having Ukraine/Russia as a seller won't suit everyone. We shall see....
16/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little lower on consolidation from yesterday's rally. China was back in the market booking 119,000 MT of US beans for new crop delivery under the daily reporting system. The trade struggles to weigh up the impending likely record 2016 US soybean crop against record demand from China, accompanied by a significant slowdown in exports from South America. US crop conditions (72% good to excellent) are the best for this week since 2004. Some question whether conditions are too wet to achieve the record yields and production that the USDA now has pencilled in. "Ultra-wet conditions have become detrimental for crops in some areas in August, washing fertilizers out of the root zone, even drowning plants in the low lying areas. Recurring showers the past several weeks have grown excessive in Illinois, the leading soybean state, where 2- 3 times the normal rainfall has developed. Excessive rainfall is hampering crops in Minnesota and Missouri, as well. Kentucky was extremely wet, receiving 3 times the normal rainfall the past few weeks. The new forecast continues very wet," say Martell Crop Projections. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.19 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.07 1/4, down 2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $336.70, down $2.90; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.38, up 17 points.
Corn: Corn closed flat to 1 cent higher. Fresh news was limited. As with beans, not everyone is convinced that the US can bring in a record 175 bu/acre average corn yield this year. "Corn benefits from heavy rainfall in July, strong showers promoting successful pollination in corn. This insures that a large number of kernels would develop on the ear. 'Rain makes grain' is the common phrase. However, rainfall has continued heavy in August, perhaps becoming too much of a good thing. Along with the warm night temperatures, corn prospects have declined in Illinois and Indiana," say Martell Crop Projections. Heavy rains continue today and are expected throughout the 7 day forecast for the south which will halt almost all harvest activity there. Warmer than normal night-time temperatures continue for the Midwest Midwest for another 5 days before they give way to much below normal temperatures in a wet 6-10 day forecast. Germany's DRV lowered their forecast for the 2016 corn crop there by 0.5 MMT from last month to 4.0 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.27 1/2, up 1 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: Wheat closed narrowly mixed across the three exchanges. The US winter wheat harvest is just about done and the spring wheat harvest approaches halfway. Demand for US wheat is sluggish, but improved prospects are hoped for following a large-scale downgrade to the crop in Europe. Germany's DRV today lowered their forecast for 2016 grain production there from 44.7 MMT to 44.9 MMT due to "significantly lower estimated yields per hectare for all cereals. This year's result is more than 8 percent below last year's value," they said. "Reason for the disappointing results are in particular the adverse weather conditions in recent months," they added. Wheat production was forecast at 24.2 MMT versus 25.4 MMT previously and some 9% below last year. Winter barley production is seen down more than 9% at 8.8 MMT and spring barley output declining by almost 9% to 1.8 MMT. There are no such problems in Russia though where IKAR raised the bar for grain production this year by 2 MMT to 116 MMT, upping wheat 1 MMT to 70 MMT. These estimates are still quite conservative and could be raised again, they said. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.
16/08/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, wheat was mostly firmer, with London wheat marching on to new highs.
The day ended with benchmark Nov 16 GBP0.75/tonne higher at GBP131.65/tonne. Sep 16 Paris wheat traded up EUR0.75/tonne at EUR163.25/tonne, Aug corn was unchanged at EUR166.50/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.25/tonne lower at EUR373.50/tonne.
The EU wheat crop keeps shrinking. This time it was Germany's turn to take a knock with the German Agri Cooperatives Association DRV cutting their forecast for 2016 grain production there from 44.7 MMT to 44.9 MMT due to "significantly lower estimated yields per hectare for all cereals. This year's result is more than 8 percent below last year's value," they said.
"Reason for the disappointing results are in particular the adverse weather conditions in recent months. While the corn has suffered mainly in the western and southwestern parts of the country under heavy rain, it was too dry partially in the north and northeast," they observed.
Wheat production was forecast at 24.2 MMT versus 25.4 MMT previously and some 9% below last year.
Winter barley production is seen down more than 9% at 8.8 MMT and spring barley output declining by almost 9% to 1.8 MMT.
Corn production is seen at only 4 MMT versus 4.5 MMT previously and the rapeseed harvest, which is largely complete, forecast at 4.5 MMT versus 4.9 MMT last month and 11% below 2015. "The oil contents are slightly lower than the previous year," they added.
Agritel said that the French wheat harvest should now be about 80% done and fine and dry weather in Germany will allow significant harvest advancement to be made this week.
Saudo Arabia bought 640,000 MT in a 12.5% hard wheat tender.
IKAR raised their estimate for the Russian grain harvest by 2 MMT to 116 MMT, upping wheat from 69 MMT to 70 MMT, noting the possibility for further increases. The USDA forecast wheat production in Russia at 72 MMT on Friday.
The Russian Ag Ministry say that the 2015 wheat harvest is only just past halfway through (50.9% done) producing a crop of 51.7 MMT already, so these estimates do seem a little low even if they are of a record magnitude and we allow for the bulk of what is yet to be harvested to be lower yielding spring wheat.
The trade debates the sharply improved results out of Russia, and their ability to export large quantities of this wheat successfully to the foreign market when it requires it, especially in the depths of the Russian winter.
15/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with decent gains as the trade focuses on the demand side of the WASDE equation rather than the record US supply side. Weekly US soybean export inspections were 746,371 MT - smaller than a week ago, but still almost double the amount inspected during the same week a year ago. Very strong demand from China in recent weeks underpins, although there were no announcements under the daily reporting system today. The USDA pegged soybean crop conditions unchanged at 72% good to excellent. They said that 95% of the crop is blooming (93% on average) and 80% setting pods (75% on average). The NOPA crush report for July came in at 143.715 million bu which was lower than the 146.7 million expected. Sep 16 Soybeans closed at $10.23 3/4, up 24 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $10.09 1/3, up 27 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal is at $339.60, up $7.10; Sep 16 Soybean Oil is at 33.21, up 118 points.
Corn: The corn market closed 3-4 cents higher. The trade doesn't seem to believe that the USDA's 175 bu/acre yield estimate from Friday will come true. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.172 MMT which is about what was expected. The USDA left corn crop conditions unchanged at 74% good to excellent, although there was a 1 point switch from VG into E. They said that 73% of the crop is at the dough stage (60% typically at this time) and that the crop is 21% dented, which is in line with the 5-year average. The Brazilian government are said to be planning to rebuild their strategic corn stockpiles back to 2.0 to 2.3 MMT in 2017. That would help keep corn supplies there tight. Russia said that they'd exported 158.5 TMT of corn Jul 1 to Aug 10. Ukraine seaports shipped out 14.9 TMT of corn last week and Russian seaports nil as they both await the arrival of new crop supplies. Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.26 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.37, up 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of 625,154 MT were more than 50% larger than last week. The USDA has the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 97% complete versus 95% normally at this time. Spring wheat is 48% harvested against 30% normally. Spring wheat crop conditions fell 2 points in the good to excellent category to 66%. There are some questioning the FSU's ability to export the kind of volumes of wheat that the USDA predicted on Friday, with much depending on the weather and logistical issues across the depths of their winter. Syria are reported to be tendering for 1 MMT of Russian wheat. Ukraine said that their seaports shipped out 413.1 TMT of wheat last week and Russia's exported 634.4 TMT. The 2016 Russian grain harvest is said to be 46.4% complete at 72.7 MMT. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.22, down 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.15 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
15/08/16 -- EU grains began the week mixed, with benchmark Nov 16 London wheat trading close to the best levels on a front month since Jan 2015.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.15/tonne at GBP130.90/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was down EUR2.00/tonne to EUR162.50/tonne, Aug Paris corn was up EUR0.75/tonne at EUR166.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed shot EUR6.25/tonne higher to EUR375.75/tonne.
UK wheat continues to get the benefit of the falling pound, which slumped below 1.15 against the euro today, en route to 1.11 according to Morgan Stanley.
The demise of the French wheat crop, and at least some trouble for that in Germany too, also helps London wheat. It has to be noted though that the 9 MMT decline in European output signalled by the USDA on Friday is entirely compensated for by a 7 MMT hike in production in Russia and a 2 MMT rise for Ukraine. Add on another 2 MMT for Kazakhstan and the FSU more than makes up for this year's EU shortfall.
Indeed, Russia's grain harvest this year is 46.4% done at 72.7 MMT, is the Ag Ministry's figures are to be believed. That includes 51.1 MMT of wheat off 50% of the harvestable area. The official Ministry forecasts for a grain crop of 110 MMT and a wheat crop of 67 MMT therefore look eminently achievable. Too low some might say.
The Russian Ministry say that grain exports Jul 1 to Aug 10 were up 13% versus the same period in 2015 at 2.943 MMT. Wheat consisted of 2.348 MMT of that compared to 1.662 MMT a year ago.
Russian seaports shipped out 725.6 TMT of wheat grain week, up from 411.2 TMT the previous week, say APK Inform. That total included 634.4 TMT of wheat.
Ukraine's seaports were down a tad week-on-week at 660.1 TMT, including 413.1 TMT of wheat, but were still substantial nevertheless.
Morocco are tendering for 68 TMT of feed barley and Syria are in the market for 1 MMT of Russian wheat.