01/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower, save for rapeseed which marched on to new highs.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.75/tonne at GBP137.25/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.75/tonne lower at EUR160.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR164.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.00/tonne to EUR411.00/tonne.
Another day of sharply higher crude oil prices helped rapeseed push onto levels last seen in April 2014.
Other than that, fresh news was lacking again. Saudi Arabia tendered for 960,000 MT of feed barley for Jan/Mare shipment and Tunisia are in for feed barley and soft wheat.
EU soft wheat exports only advanced by 247,188 MT this week, according to the latest missive from Brussels. That takes the season to date total to a little over 10 MMT.
The EU Commission forecast full season exports at 24 MMT, down 1 MMT from previously.
30/11/16 -- South American weather looks more or less ideal. The USDA announced 123,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for delivery in the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are a wide looking 800,000-1,900,000 MT. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.32 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.41 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $316.40, down $5.30; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at $36.79, up 43 points.>
Corn: The corn market closed around unchanged. The big news today came out of the OPEC meeting where it was agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels/day. Weekly US ethanol production was down 2,000 barrels/day, but still over 1 million barrels/day. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales numbers are between 650,000 MT and 1.8 MMT versus 1,688,800 MT a week ago. The Russian corn harvest is 83% done at 13.9 MMT. Ukraine's corn harvest stands at 22.9 MMT off 86% of the planned area. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, unchanged; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.48 1/2, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with spring wheat in Minneapolis again the strongest leg of the complex. Jordan are in the market for 50,000 MT of wheat from optional origin. Japan are tendering for 158,514 MT of food wheat of US, Canadian and Australian origin in their regular weekly tender. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are 300,000 MT to 800,000 MT versus 712,500 MT a week ago. Rusagrotrans said that Russia had exported 3.95 MMT of grains in November - a record volume for the month and 26% more than in Nov 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.80 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.91 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.39 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat down GBP0.55/tonne at GBP138.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up a euro at EUR162.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR164.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.50/tonne to EUR408.00/tonne.
The most noteworthy item of the day was OPEC's decision to cut crude oil production for the first time in 8 years. That sent crude surging, taking rapeseed along with it for the ride.
Paris rapeseed futures subsequently settled at their highest level since Apr 2014.
Rapeseed oil prices are up 10% on a year ago, and soybean oil prices have surged 21% during this time, note the HGCA.
"For rape oil, the increases are a further signal of the tight rapeseed situation we find ourselves in this year, as well as being boosted by other vegetable oils including palm oil," they say.
Earlier this week Oil World estimated EU Nov 1 rapeseed stocks down 12% y-o-y at a 5-year low of 13.4 MMT.
In other news, Rusagrotrans said that Russia had exported 3.95 MMT of grains in November - a record volume for the month and 26% more than in Nov 2015.
Total season to date exports (Jul/Nov) still slightly lag year ago levels however at 17.72 MMT versus 17.92 MMT.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 wheat harvest was 98.2% complete at 75.9 MMT. Corn harvesting is 83% done at 13.9 MMT.
29/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. There was probably also an element of book-squaring an profit-taking to coincide with month end. The USDA published their baseline proijections, pegging US soybean acreas at 85.5 million next year, with yields at 47.9 bu/acre and 2017/18 ending stocks of 396 million bushels. Brazil is reported to be around 75% planted nationally with beans for their 2016/17 harvest, with leading state of Mato Grosso 97.6% done and Parana 95% complete. The crop is said to be generally in very good condition at this early stage, Argentina is 33.7% planted versus around 40% on average. There were no new USDA announcements of soybean sales today under the daily reporting system. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.42 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.51, down 13 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $321.70, down $4.20; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.36, down 35 points.
Corn: The market closed with heavy losses. The USDA's baseline numbers for next year were plantings of 90 million acres, a 170.8 bu/acre yield and 2017/18 ending stocks of 2.298 billion bushels. Brazil's full season corn is reported to be 99% planted in Parana and 90% done in Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina is 41% complete versus 49% on average at this time. Brazil's corn exports could jump 62% next season, according to their National Grain Association. Russia reported their 2016 total grain harvest to be 96.7% complete at 124.4 MMT. Corn harvesting is 82.6% done at 13.9 MMT. Ukraine's harvest is now 95% complete at 62 MMT, including 22.9 MMT of corn off 86% of the planned area. The French corn harvest is over with production expected to be no higher than 11.5 MMT this year, according to Agritel. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49, down 9 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished lower across the board. The USDA early baseline projections for wheat next year is an acreage of 48.5 million, a 47.1 bu/acre yield and 2017/18 ending stocks adding up to 993 million bushels. Egypt's GASC bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat for early Jan shipment paying a little bit less than previously. There were no US offers. Strategie Grains forecast a recovery in EU-28 soft wheat production to 152.9 MMT next year, some 8 MMT above output in 2016. They see EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2017/18 at 30 MMT, up 5.7 MMT on this season. At the same time, exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan collectively are currently expected to fall by some 2 MMT in 2017/18, as production there declines to trend-levels, said Agrimoney. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 95% planted. Russia is just about finished. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.84, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.98 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34 1/4, down 7 cents.
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.95/tonne at GBP138.55/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR4.25/tonne at EUR161.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR164.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR404.50/tonne.
The GBP/EUR remains hovering around the 1.1750 mark, having fallen below 1.10 in recent weeks, keeping a lid on London wheat price rally attempts. Is this just a corrective period of appreciation, not to be confused with a long term recovery?
Analysts say that first resistance for the pound is now around the 1.1875 level, with stronger resistance at 1.20. A push above the latter would be needed to argue the case for more extended sterling upside.
A drop below 1.1675 would be needed to signal that an interim top has been seen meanwhile, they opine.
Strategie Grains forecast a recovery in EU-28 soft wheat production to 152.9 MMT next year, some 8 MMT above output in 2016, even if below the levels achieved in 2015 (a record 159.4 MMT) and 2014.
They see EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2017/18 at 30 MMT, up 5.7 MMT on this season.
Egypt's GASC bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender for Jan 2-11 shipment at prices slightly below those paid last time.
Russia reported their 2016 total grain harvest to be 96.7% complete at 124.4 MMT. Corn harvesting is 82.6% done at 13.9 MMT.
Ukraine's harvest is now 95% complete at 62 MMT, including 22.9 MMT of corn off 86% of the planned area.
28/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with fair gains, but also well off session highs which had them more than 20 cents up at once stage. Weekly export inspections came in at a very respectable total of more than 2 MMT, down more than 20% on last week, but still larger than the same week a year ago. This was towards the top end of trade expectations. There were no new USDA sales announcements today. The usual Friday weekly commitment of traders report was delayed until today due to last week's Thanksgiving Day holiday. Managed money was seen adding 15,467 contracts to their net long position for the week through to Tuesday night. They will have added more since then. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.56, up 10 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.64 1/2, up 10 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $325.90, up $5.10; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.71, up 5 points.
Corn: Corn closed around unchanged. Weekly export inspections of 800,967 MT were towards the lower end of what the trade was anticipating. In Russia, corn harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT. Ukrain is 84% complete at 22.4 MMT. Both are stepping up their foreign corn shipments. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week, up from 616.7 TMT the previous week. That included 438.1 TMT (52%) of corn. Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled 436.1 TMT last week including 67.7 TMT of corn. Brazilian weather conditions remain near perfect. Chinese customs data shows that they imported 2.99 MMT of corn Jan/Oct, a 35% reduction compared to a year previously. Almost all of that came from Ukraine. The commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their net short in corn futures and options by 24,762 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, unchanged.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago the loser and Kansas and Minneapolis around unchanged to as much as 7 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of only 221,985 MT were poor. Chinese customs data shows that they stepped up their wheat imports Jan/Oct to a cumulative 3.12 MMT, up 22% on the same period in 2015. That largest suppliers were Australia, Canada and the US. This came at the expense of barley imports however which were down 57% at 4.18 MMT. The largest suppliers here were Australia, France and Canada. The USDA put 58% of the US winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged on a week ago. They said that 92% of the crop is emerged, exactly in line with the 5-year average. The commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their overall net short in CBOT wheat by 18,131 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.89 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 1/4, up 7 cents.
28/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly lower. Fresh news was once again scarce.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP1.25/tonne at GBP139.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR165.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR166.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR402.75/tonne.
Nov 17 London wheat failed to hold onto gains above the GBP140/tonne mark, which looks like resistance. Paris wheat and corn look range-bound in the mid EUR160's.
Rapeseed did manage to hold above the key EUR400/tonne level against a background of tightness in availability in the EU. Oil Word estimated EU-28 Nov 1 rapeseed stocks at 13.4 MMT, down 12% on this time a year ago and a 5-year low.
Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled 436.1 TMT last week, down slightly from the previous week. That total included 351.8 TMT (80.7%) of wheat, 67.7 TMT of corn and 13.6 TMT of barley.
YTD exports are still lagging year ago levels, but are forecast to hold up during the second half of the season. Rusagrotrans forecast November grain exports at 3.7-3.8 MMT, a 20% increase on a year ago. Wheat will account for around 2.55-2.60 MMT of that total (up 16% versus 2015), with barley a further 250 TMT and corn an additional 850-900 TMT, they predict.
December imports will hold, and roughly match year ago levels, at 3.8 MMT, they estimate.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their harvest had now reached 124.3 MMT off 96.7% of the planned area. Wheat and barley harvesting is almost over, corn harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT.
They said that Russian grain exports (to Nov 21) were down 0.8% at 15.82 MMT. Wheat accounts for 78.7% of that total at 12.45 MMT.
Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was 95% complete at 61.6 MMT. Corn harvesting is 84% done at 22.4 MMT.
APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week, up from 616.7 TMT the previous week. That included 327.3 TMT of wheat, 438.1 TMT of corn and 70.9 TMT of barley.
Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of hard wheat of optional origin for Jan/Feb shipment and 50-75,000 MT of feed barley for January delivery.
25/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher the day after Thanksgiving, as is frequently the case. Strong weekly export sales of 1,898,600 MT for 2016/17 were up 35 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 2,808,200 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week but still mighty impressive. China too over 2 MMT of this week's total. Other than that fresh news was light and trade was thin with many dealers taking the opportunity to book a long weekend. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.46, up 11 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.54 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $320.80, up $4.40; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 36.66, down 19 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. As with beans, fresh news was thin on the ground, and so too were traders. Argentina reported that their corn crop was 41.1% planted of the anticipated 4.9 million ha. Weekly export sales came in at 1,688,800 MT for 2016/17, up 2 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The trade was expecting sales of 900 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Exports of 591,800 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points in a week and the same as this time a year ago. In Russia, corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete at 13.4 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.49 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.58 1/4, down 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, higher in Minneapolis and lower in Kansas and Chicago. Minneapolis gets a boost from the continued problems experienced by Canadian growers getting the last of their spring wheat harvest in. Some 6% of the crop is still in the field in Saskatchewan. For once weekly export sales were much better than expected at 712,500 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17. These were up 19 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 379,500 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Argentina's wheat crop is reported at 17.7% harvested. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.95 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.34 1/4, up 7 cents.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP140.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was also unchanged EUR166.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.25/tonne to EUR401.75/tonne.
For the week London wheat gained GBP0.85/tonne, Paris wheat and corn both added EUR0.75/tonne and rapeseed advanced EUR4.25/tonne.
Many traders in the US remained absent following yesterday's Thanksgiving Day holiday, so activity was light and news was thin.
FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points in a week and the same as this time a year ago.
French winter wheat crop conditions good to very good fell one point from a week ago to 94%, which is 4 points below this time last year. Winter barley crop conditions were unchanged at 92% good to very good (versus 98% a year ago).
Russia said that they'd harvested 124 MMT of grains off 96.6% of the planned area. Corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete at 13.4 MMT.
Canadian growers are struggling to wrap up the last of their 2016 harvest with 6% of their spring wheat and 4% of canola crops still remaining in the field in the province of Saskatchewan as of Nov 21.