20/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended mixed, lower on old crop and higher on the new. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report shows managed money significantly cutting their exposure in beans for the week through to Tuesday night, in which they cut their length by some 33,519 contracts bringing their overall net long down to just 46,624 contracts. The USDA announced that private exporters had sold 110,000 MT of US beans to unknown for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that the Argentine soybean harvest was limping over the line, at 92.2% complete versus 88.1% a week ago and 100% a year ago. They stood by their production estimate of a record 55.5 MMT. The persistent rains that have disrupted the harvest have also been said to have damaged quality this year, with low oil and protein levels in the crop. Excessive Midwest wetness is a cause for concern for newly planted soybeans. The USDA will update us on crop conditions on Monday. Last week the crop was 73% good/excellent, we could see that trimmed 2-3 points on Monday, although that would still be better than a year ago. Coceral increased their forecast for the EU-28 rapeseed crop to a record 22.8 MMT, whilst Copa Cogeca went for a slightly lower (but still a record) 22.2 MMT. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.15 3/4, down 5 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.31 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $459.20, up $8.00; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.04, down 57 points. For the week, front month beans fell 10 cents, with meal down $8.70 and oil adding 35 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-4 cents higher on excessive wetness in parts of the US corn belt. Gains for the week were relatively modest though. Monday's crop condition ratings from the USDA will be of interest. Last week they raised the proportion of the crop rated good/excellent by 1 percentage point from the previous to 76%. You'd have to expect that to be cut by maybe 3-4 points on Monday. News that China has 150 MMT of domestic corn stocks, some of which they are looking to dispose of, weighs on the market - even if the quality of much of that material is in question. This week's Chinese corn auctions didn't go too well, they sold less than 1 MMT of the 5 MMT on offer. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013/14 corn imports at 4.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 5.5 MMT. Imports in 2014/15 are seen falling to 3.5 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina's corn harvest is 44.4% complete, up only modestly from 41.6% a week ago and well behind versus 71.8% a year ago. They forecast production at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Coceral forecast the EU-28 corn crop at 64.6 MMT, a 900 TMT increase from previously and 2.2% higher than a year ago. Copa Cogeca went even higher, forecasting an EU-28 crop of 68 MMT, a 7.3% increase on 2013. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report shows managed money reducing their net corn long for the week through to Tuesday night by over 9k lots, giving them a net long position of 137,280 contracts. Ukraine said that they'd exported a record 20 MMT of corn so far this season. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.53 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.48 1/4, up 4 cents. For the week Jul 14 corn was 6 1/4 cents higher.
Wheat: The wheat market ended around 8 to 12 cents lower on the day. Heavy rain on the Plains is slowing 2014 winter wheat harvest progress. Yields are disappointing, but protein levels are high. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that winter wheat planting in Argentina is 34.3% complete versus 20.1% a week ago and 42% a year ago. They estimated the total planted area at 4.3 million ha, unchanged from previously. The Argentine Ag Ministry say that plantings this year will total 4.5 million ha, a 23% increase on last year due to very good sowing conditions, rotational needs and better prices relative to those for corn. Whilst they wait for their own, and neighbouring Argentina's forthcoming big wheat crops, Brazil are still active in the import market. They are said to have been significant buyers again of US wheat in the past week. Taiwan also bought 96,180 MT of US wheat for Aug–Sept shipment overnight. Coceral increased their forecast for the EU-28 all wheat crop by 6 MMT to 149.4 MMT. Copa Cogeca also increased their forecast, but to a slightly more modest 147.4 MMT, although both would be the second highest on record. Coceral said that Romania would produce 8.7 MMT of wheat this year, which is far higher than the USDA's current 7.6 MMT estimate. A large crop there would make competition out of the Black Sea region all the more fierce, especially in the early part of the new campaign. Hungary said today that it would harvest around 5 MMT of wheat this year, a figure similar to last year and a 14% increase on the 5-year average. A Reuters survey pegged the Russian wheat crop at an average guess of 52.6 MMT, with Ukraine producing 20.7 MMT and Kazakhstan harvesting 14.2 MMT. Managed money increased it's CBOT short by 1,807 contracts to a net near 29k lots for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.85 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.20 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.90 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents. For the week, Chicago was down 3/4 of a cent, with Kansas up 7 1/2 cents and Minneapolis rising 7 cents.
The day ended with the Jul 14 London wheat contract down GBP0.15/tonne at GBP139.50/tonne and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat closing GBP0.10/tonne higher at GBP138.35/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat closed unchanged at EUR188.25/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was also unchanged at EUR176.00/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.75/tonne firmer at EUR353.25/tonne.
For the week that puts Jul 14 London wheat GBP0.75/tonne firmer, with Nov 14 up GBP1.35/tonne. In Paris, Nov 14 wheat closed the week a euro higher than it began it, Aug 14 corn fell half a euro and Aug 14 rapeseed rose two euros.
Coceral were said to have forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 141.9 MMT, a 6 MMT increase from their March estimate and 4.1% up on last year. Add on durum wheat production and they gave us an EU-28 all wheat crop of 149.4 MMT, close to the 2008 all-time high of 152 MMT.
Separately, Copa Cogeca forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop a little lower at 140 MMT, and all wheat production at 147.4 MMT - 2 MMT lower than Coceral. Whilst full details of Coceral's figures have not yet been published on their website, Copa Cogeca's have, and their figures include what looks like a low-ball estimate for the 2014 UK wheat crop of "only" 14.85 MMT, using a modest average yield estimate of 7.5 MT/ha.
Coceral increased their forecast for the EU-28 barley crop, although this time by a more modest 600 TMT to 55.9 MMT, a 5.9% decline on a year ago. Copa Cogeca estimated the EU-28 barley crop at 54.5 MMT.
Coceral also increased their forecasts for EU-28 corn and rapeseed production. They put the corn crop this year at 64.6 MMT, a 900 TMT increase from previously and 2.2% higher than a year ago. They raised the bar for the 2014 rapeseed crop to a record 22.8 MMT, a 1.7 MMT increase on their March forecast and 10.7% more than last year.
Copa Cogeca went even higher on corn, forecasting an EU-28 crop of 68 MMT, a 7.3% increase on 2013. For rapeseed they estimated the EU-28 crop at 22.2 MMT, a 9.8% rise on last year, placing production in the UK at just over 2.5 MMT versus 2.1 MMT a year ago, using an average yield estimate of 3.4 MT/ha.
Ukraine said that they'd exported a record 31.9 MMT of grains so far this marketing year, including 9.2 MMT of wheat, 2.4 MMT of barley and 20 MMT of corn.
A Reuters survey placed the 2014/15 Ukraine grain crop at an average guess of 59 MMT (versus 63 MMT last year), with exports almost matching this season at 31 MMT. The Ukraine wheat crop was estimated at 20.7 MMT.
The same survey forecast the Russian 2014/15 grain harvest at 94 MMT, with exports at 27.1 MMT. Last year's crop was officially 92.4 MMT and 2013/14 Russian grain exports are expected to finish at around 25.5 MMT (currently 25 MMT to Jun 11).
SovEcon said that early Russian grain yields (almost entirely barley) are identical to last year's levels, averaging around 5.4 MT/ha in Krasnodar and around 3.7 MT/ha in Stavropol.
The 2014 Ukraine grain harvest meanwhile has produced nearly half a million tonnes of mostly barley already, for which the average yield so far is 2.65 MT/ha.
FranceAgriMer said that 90% of the French corn crop has 6-8 leaves visible compared to only 51% this time a year ago. Spring barley is 100% headed versus only 70% at this point last year.
French winter wheat rated good/very good was cut 2 points from last week to 70% (versus 69% a year ago). Winter barley good/very good was cut one point to 67%, the same as a year ago. Spring barley in the top two categories was also cut a point from last week to 66% (71% a year ago), and corn was trimmed from 88% to 85% good/very good, although that's still sharply higher than 56% a year ago.
French new crop milling wheat is said to be offered at $253/tonne FOB Rouen (the equivalent of GBP149/tonne), with new crop feed barley at $223/tonne FOB (GBP131/tonne) the same location. New crop Russian corn was said to have traded at $206/tonne C&F Marmara (GBP121/tonne).
19/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with old crop export sales defying expectations of negative to zero once again coming in at 97,900 MT - and this doesn't include yesterday's reported sale of 140,000 MT either, that will be reported next week. New crop sales came in at 285,800 MT and exports were 192,200 MT. In other news the Philippines bought 160,000 MT of US meal for Nov-Jan shipment. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have sold 38.43% of their 2013/14 soybean crop versus 46.17% a year ago. They forecast the Argentine bean crop at 54.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They said that Argentina has now harvested 93% of their 2013/14 soybean crop. There's talk that up to 1.0 million acres of canola may not get planted in Manitoba due to rain. The US Midwest remains wet too, typical of a developing El Nino. "A rash of strong thunderstorms developed overnight in the Upper Midwest, worsening already-wet field conditions in corn and soybeans. Seven to 10 inches of rain has accrued in South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota from recurring thunderstorms over the past 10 days. Producers are ready for the rain to stop, as widespread flooding has developed," said Martell Crop Projections. Fund buying in beans was estimated at a net 3,000 lots on the day. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.20 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.27 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $451.20, down $2.00; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.61, up 48 points.
Corn: The corn market posted decent gains on short-covering prompted by excessive Midwest wetness. "The topsoil moisture map this morning reveals pockets of excessive wetness in northern Midwest farms. More rain is still predicted with an active storm track across the northern United States. A trough of low pressure over Montana and Wyoming keeps spinning out waves of showers into the Upper Midwest. Minnesota is the wettest of the major corn and soybean states accruing a 5-inch moisture surplus over the past several weeks. The forecast calls for another 1-2 inches of rain in the Central United States, at least. Heavier rain, 3-5 inches, is possible in a swath from eastern Nebraska to southern Michigan and including western Iowa and northern Illinois," said Martell Crop Projections. Weekly export sales of only 109,000 MT of old crop and 78,900 MT were disappointing compared to expectations of a combined 350-550 TMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have sold 41.61% of their 2013/14 corn crop versus 64.88% a year ago. They estimated this year's production at 32.1 MMT versus a previous estimate of 31.1 MMT. They said that Argentina has harvested 49% of their 2013/14 crop. Strategie Grains estimated the EU-28 2014/15 corn crop at 65.9 MMT, unchanged from last month and up 2% on a year ago. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for Ukraine corn production this year by 0.5 MMT to 26.8 MT. They also increased their outlook on Russia's corn crop by 0.1 MMT to 11.4 MMT. Fund buying in corn was estimated at a net 7,000 contracts on the day. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.50 1/2, up 9 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.44 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher for a third day on continued short-covering. Talk of poor yields and possible further crop damage due to heavy harvest rains on the US Plains is supportive, even if wheat crops elsewhere around the world are in much better shape. The Kansas Wheat Commission reported yields that range from only 12-35 bu/acre. Canada also remains wet, potentially harming wheat production there. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that Argentina farmers have sold only 56.65% of their 2013/14 wheat crop versus 90.95% a year ago. The Russian Ag Ministry forecast grain production there at 97 MMT, including 53 MMT of wheat. They see 2014/15 grain exports, most of which will be wheat, up 15% at 22 MMT. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the Ukraine wheat crop by 0.3 MMT to 20.5 MMT and increased their outlook on Russia by 1.8 MMT to a still low looking 47 MMT. They pegged barley production in the former 0.3 MMT higher than last week at 7.2 MMT and increased output in the latter by 0.1 MMT to 14.8 MMT on improved weather. Weekly export sales of 372,600 MT were at the low end of trade expectations of 350-550 TMT. Pakistan bought 90,000 MT of Black Sea origin wheat for August shipment. Jordan are re-tendering for 100,000 MT optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. The UAE bought 120,000 MT of milling wheat from the Black Sea region for Sept–Dec shipment. Saudi Arabia seeks 715,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Sept-Nov shipment. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.93 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.29 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.03, up 5 3/4 cents.
19/06/14 -- EU grains closed mixed with Jul 14 London wheat up GBP0.10/tonne at GBP139.65/tonne, and with new crop Nov 14 GBP0.55/tonne higher at GBP138.25tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat fell EUR0.25/tonne to EUR188.25/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was down EUR0.50/tonne to EUR176.00/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed finished EUR4.00/tonne higher at EUR351.50/tonne.
The market appears to be continuing to attempt to consolidate from recent heavy losses.
If these modest gains can be sustained is a good question. At least, as far as London wheat is concerned, the the pound reaching a new 5-year high against the US dollar would suggest that this could be a tall order. Sterling has only been above today's 1.70 level against the greenback only very briefly once since October 2008.
Strategie Grains increased their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop by 2 MMT from last month to 139.4 MMT, a 3% rise on last year, and the second largest ever. They said that crop conditions are largely very good, except for in the case of Spain and Croatia, echoing yesterday's comments from the EU Commission's MARS.
The 2014 winter barley harvest is already underway in Spain, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and the south of France, they said. Even so, they cut their forecast for EU-28 barley production by 0.5 MMT from last month to 55.5 MMT, a 7% reduction on last year.
The French analysts left their assessment of the 2014 EU-28 corn crop unchanged at 65.9 MMT, a 2% rise on a year ago.
MDA CropCast raised their forecast for the production of wheat, barley, corn and sunflower in both Ukraine and Russia from last week due to improved weather conditions.
The Russian Ag Ministry estimated the 2014 grain crop there at 97 MMT versus 92.4 MMT a year ago. Of that, 53 MMT will comprise of wheat, and grain exports will amount to 22 MMT, up 16% on 19 MMT in 2013/14, they added.
RusAgroTrans said that Russia would export 7-800 TMT of grains in June, the last month of the 2013/14 marketing year. That's down from 1.6 MMT in May, but up on their previous June forecast.
The new FSU/Eastern European harvest continues to undermine price prospects to the upside.
The UAE bought 120,000 MT of milling wheat from the Black Sea region for Sept–Dec shipment. Saudi Arabia is looking for 715,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Sept-Nov shipment.
Brussels cleared 348 TMT of soft wheat for export, bringing the almost over 2013/14 seasonal total to a record 27.5 MMT. They also granted 120 TMT worth of corn import licences, taking the marketing year cumulative total to 14 MMT.
UK growers would love to think that "this is as bad as it gets" - harvest pressure and sterling strength might suggest otherwise, at least for the next few months. However the notion that "all the bad news is already factored into the market" is not without substantiation.
18/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed back above $14 on the front month Jul 14, supported by the USDA announcing 140,000 MT of old crop beans sold to unknown. Some are suggesting that this could be a LH Aug Gulf shipment though, essentially making it new crop beans out of the Mississippi Delta. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US soybean yields at 45.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.5 MMT, and the 2013/14 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT. Both are unchanged from his previous estimates. Oil World said that China had imported 54.38 MMT of beans between September and May, up 32% from a year ago. They estimated China’s June bean imports at a near record high 7.5 MMT versus 6.9 MMT a year previously. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around zero on old crop and 300-500 TMT on new crop. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.09, up 10 3/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.13, up 1 cent; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $453.20, up $2.50; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.13, up 45 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a little higher on old crop and flat on new crop. Fund money was estimated at being a modest net buyer of around 3,000 corn contracts on the day. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2014 US corn yield at 165.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He was said to have forecast the 2013/14 Brazilian corn crop at 77.0 MMT, up sharply from his previous estimate of 74.5 MMT. He pegged the 2013/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. China sold only 10% of the 2.73 MMT of corn that they offered up at auction overnight. MARS estimated EU-28 corn yields this year at 7.3% above last year and 6% higher than the 5-year average. Yields in Ukraine are seen down 10.47% on last year's record, but are still expected to be 3.14% above the 5-year average. Russia are said to have planted 2.7 million hectares of corn for the 2014 harvest, which is over 103% of the existing Ministry forecast. Recent rains will have helped the crop there. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 350-550 TMT. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.41 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.35 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent short-covering gains, with funds buying an estimated net 3,000 lots in Chicago. Heavy rains in Kansas continue to give rise to quality concerns, coming just as the harvest in the leading US wheat state was getting going. MARS estimated EU-28 soft wheat yield at 5.81 MT/ha, up from a previous estimate of 5.79 MT/ha, down fractionally on 5.82 MT/ha last year but up 4.2% versus the 5-year average. "Overall, the outlook for EU-28 yields remains positive: above the 5-year average and close to 2013 yields - with only minor changes (at EU-level) compared to the May forecasts," they said. Jordan made no purchase in a tender to buy 100,000 MT of wheat due to high prices. The Philippines bought 85,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for Sep–Nov shipment. Barley harvesting is underway in Ukraine and Russia. Early yields are said to be pretty good, and better than was feared a month or so ago. The winter wheat harvest in the region will get going in earnest very soon. Good production prospects out of Romania are keeping competition in the Black Sea fierce. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 350-550 TMT. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.87, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.27 3/4, up 15 1/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.96 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents.
18/06/14 -- EU grains markets were higher across just about the entire board, in consolidation trade from recent losses. Few would say that the downtrend has been broken yet however. Harvest pressure still remains, and will only increase in the coming weeks. Yield potential meanwhile is looking good.
The day ended with Jul 14 London wheat up GBP0.80/tonne at GBP139.55/tonne, and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat GBP1.50/tonne higher at GBP137.70/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat ended EUR1.75/tonne firmer at EUR188.50/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was unchanged at EUR176.50/tonne, whilst Aug 14 Paris rapeseed increased EUR0.75/tonne to EUR347.50/tonne.
Ukraine said that they'd harvested over 308 TMT of early grains, a volume consisting almost entirely of winter barley, although also including a small amount of winter wheat. Early yields are said to be averaging 2.72 MT/ha versus 2.24 MT/ha this time last year. Rapeseed harvesting is also underway.
The Russian harvest has also begun in Krasnodar, Stavropol and Adygea in the south of the country. Elsewhere in Russia spring grain planting is 98% complete on 31.3 million ha. That area includes 2.7 million ha of corn, which is over 103% of the Ministry forecast.
The EU Commission's MARS unit forecast a generally positive outlook for European cereal yields this year.
"The yield outlook for soft wheat is 4.2% above the 5-year average, and is particularly good for Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and the UK," they said. You will note that bumper yields out of 75% of those sellers is rarely good news for prices.
They also see the EU-28 corn yield up 7.3% on last year, and 6.0% above the 5-year average. Barley yields will be 6.1% down on last year, but also still above the 5-year average by 1.4%.
Specifically, they place the average UK wheat yield at 8.05 MT/ha, which is 9.1% above last year and 7.5% above the 5-year average. "In the main crop-producing regions of the eastern UK, the seasonal conditions thus far could be characterised as being close to optimal," they said.
UK barley yields were forecast at 5.86 MT/ha, a more modest 0.2% up on last year and 2.1% above the 5-year average. UK rapeseed yields were forecast at 3.76 MT/ha, up 26.2% versus last year and 9.8% above the 5-year average.
Elsewhere, French and German wheat yields were both seen a little over 3% above the 5-year average. Barley yields are forecast down 0.8% in France but up 4.1% in Germany compared to the 5-year average. For rapeseed they are seen up 1.4% and 6.5% respectively versus the previous 5-year average.
In Ukraine, MARS forecast wheat yields down a modest 2.8% compared to last year, but up 7.1% compared the the preceding 5-year average. Barley yields are estimated to be up 4.7% and 8.9% respectively. Corn yields are forecast down 10.47% compared to last year's record, but still up 3.13% against the 5-year average.
All of the forecasts for Ukraine showed significant increases compared to MARS' expectations from a month ago due to the fact that "May was particularly rainy."
Yields in Romania, a regular "pile it high and sell it cheap" seller, are forecast well above the 5-year average. Wheat yields were forecast 20.2% above the norm, with barley yields up 15.4%. Corn yields are seen up 14.4% and those for rapeseed up 17% versus the respective 5-year averages.
17/06/14 -- EU grains closed mostly a little lower in a subdued session.
The day ended with the Jul 14 London wheat contract down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP138.75/tonne and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat closing GBP0.35/tonne lower at GBP136.20/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat closed down EUR1.00/tonne at EUR186.75/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn slid EUR0.25/tonne to EUR176.50/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed was EUR3.50/tonne easier at EUR346.75/tonne.
Fresh news was again thinly spread around, but the market continues to drift lower as confidence grows with each passing day of a bumper EU grain crop this season.
Optimism is also high for another good year of Black Sea production. They are thus far relatively lightly sold, meaning that they may well be the usual thorn in the side of European producers as soon as the combines begin to roll.
Russian wheat growers have only around 2.5 MMT of new crop wheat forward sold, according to one prominent market commentator. That's only around half of the volume that they had committed this time a year ago, he suggested.
Meanwhile, old crop exports continue to flow out of the region.
Russia had exported 25 MMT of grains to Jun 11, a more than 60% increase on this time a year ago, according to the Ag Ministry there. That includes 18.15 MMT of wheat, 2.54 MMT of barley and 3.97 MMT of corn.
Ukraine meanwhile has exported 31.8 MMT of grains, including more than 9 MMT of wheat and almost 20 MMT of corn.
APK Inform say that the 2014 Ukraine grain crop will total 59.6 MMT, a volume only beaten by last years record crop. Wheat yields will fall a modest 2.3% this year to 3.31 MT/ha, with barley yields down 4.4% and those for corn falling 4.7%, they predict.
The Australian weather bureau are toning down their forecasts for a 2014 El Niño weather event, saying that it could come later in the year than they had originally suggested. Other forecasters are now suggesting that this will now only be a 'weak event'.
Tunisia bought 159 TMT of optional origin (probably Black Sea) milling wheat for Jul/Sep shipment. Jordan bought 50 TMT of optional origin feed barley for December delivery. Algeria are infor a nominal 50 TMT of durum wheat for October.
16/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended a little lower, despite a supportive NOPA crush number for May. That came in at top end of trade estimates at 128.8 billion bushels - the average trade forecast was around 127 million. Weekly export inspections were only 7.92 million bushels, but they don't need to be high given the frenetic early season pace of exports. After the close the USDA cut the proportion of the 2014 soybean crop to 73% good/excellent, down a point on a week ago, but a lot better than 64% this time last year. They said that 92% of the 2014 crop was now planted, which is 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was 93% versus 71% a week ago and 77% for the five year average. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.21 3/4, down 4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.17, down 4 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $462.40, down $5.50; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.50, down 19 points.
Corn: The corn market closed lower as non-threatening US weather gives rise to the suggestion that record corn production could be on the cards this year, despite reduced plantings. The USDA added to that belief by raising the proportion of the crop rated good/excellent by 1 percentage point to 76%. That's far better than only 64% a year ago, and said to be the best rating in 20 years by Reuters. Emergence was 97% versus 92% a week ago and 96% for the five year average. Weekly export inspections of 1.1 MMT were supportive, but couldn't stem the tide. Fund selling was estimated at around 6,000 lots on the day. "Heavy rainfall is predicted this week in the Midwest, where soggy field conditions have already developed. Warming temperatures would increase evaporation, but recurring strong showers would cause locally heavy rain. Maximum temperatures are expected to reach the mid - upper 80s F this week, spurring strong growth and development in corn and soybeans," said Martell Crop Projections. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.41, down 6 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.36 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of less than 400 TMT weren't too friendly. Lebanon bought 15,000 MT of wheat from the Ukraine for July-Aug shipment. Iran bought 55,000 MT of Russian wheat. Jordan seeks 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment, along with a similar volume of barley. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that Ukraine has exported 31.67 MMT of grains between July 1st – June 13th versus total 2012/13 grain exports of 23.0 MMT. The USDA reported US spring wheat crop conditions at 72% good to excellent, up 1% a week ago and versus 68% good to excellent a year ago. They put winter wheat at 30% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and one point behind last year. Winter wheat harvesting is 16% complete versus 9% a week ago and 20% for the five year average. Texas and Oklahoma are 40% and 47% harvested respectively. Kansas is just getting going at 2% complete. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.81, down 5 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.08 1/4, down 5 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.80, down 4 1/4 cents.
16/06/14 -- EU grains closed mixed with Jul 14 London wheat up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP139.25/tonne, and with new crop Nov 14 GBP0.45/tonne lower at GBP136.55tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat rose EUR0.50/tonne to EUR187.75/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR176.75/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed finished EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR350.25/tonne.
Fresh news was relatively thin on the ground to start the week.
Iran were reported to have bought 55 TMT of Russian wheat in a tender, and Tunisia are in the market for 159 TMT of optional origin wheat for Jul/Sep shipment.
Australia's weather bureau kept their rating for the chances of an El Nino weather event occurring in the next few months at 70%, although the chances of a very strong El Nino were "perhaps reduced" they said.
The threat of an El Nino is keeping Australian farmers reluctant to commit to forward sales, with new crop wheat only 10% sold versus 30% normally at this time.
Despite the El Nino risk, the Australian Oilseeds Federation raised their estimate for the 2014 canola crop Down Under to 3.86 MMT versus the USDA's 3.1 MMT, saying that the crop had got off to "the best start in a generation".
Ukraine said that it's June 1st grain stocks were 6.7 MMT, up 9% on a year ago.
APK Inform said that Ukraine had shipped 214.3 TMT of grains via it's seaports last week, an increase of 78% on the previous week. That total included 72.4 TMT of wheat, 52.1 TMT of barley and 75.2 TMT of corn.
Recent rains in Russia are said to have alleviated some drought concerns, although more will be needed for spring planted crops at least. The winter barley harvest is already underway and they will begin cutting winter wheat within the week.
13/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed higher on the day, but lower for the week. Informa revised their 2014 US crop production estimates, lowering their forecast for soybean plantings from 82.073 million acres to 81.778 million, although still higher than the USDA's 81.493 million. They see yields at 44.5 bu/acre versus 45.2 bu/acre from the USDA, and production at 3.591 billion bushels, which although still a record is a bit below the USDA's 3.635 billion estimate. Monday will bring the NOPA crush figures for May, with the average trade guess coming in at around 127 million bushels versus 132.7 million in April and 122.6 million in May 2013. Monday will also bring the latest USDA crop progress estimates, with the trade expecting the US 2014 soybean crop to be around 92-94% planted versus 87% a week ago. Soybeans rated good to excellent were 74% a week ago. There's not likely to be a great deal of change in that, with some suggesting ratings to be 1-2 points lower, and others saying unchanged to 2 points higher. The latest commitment of traders report shows managed money continuing to liquidate their net soybean long, selling just over 24k lots for the week through to Tuesday night. Their net long now stands at a little over 84k contracts. Conab cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate to 86.05 MMT versus the USDA's 87.5 MMT forecast. Weather forecasts for the Midwest remain largely non-threatening across the next two weeks. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.25 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.21 1/4, up 9 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $467.90, down $1.30; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.69, up 111 points. For the week Jul 14 beans shed 31 1/4 cents, with meal down $19.70 and oil gaining 68 points.
Corn: The corn market also closed higher on the day but lower for the week. Informa estimated 2014 US corn plantings at 91.581 million acres, unchanged from last month and a little lower than the USDA's current forecast of 91.691 million. They also left their 2014 US corn yield estimate unchanged at 163.5 bu/acre, pegging production at 13.766 billion bushels. Conab raised their forecast for Brazilian corn production from 75.19 MMT to 77.89 MMT, with second crop corn contributing 45.66 MMT of that total versus a previous estimate of 43.74 MMT. AgroConsult estimate Brazil's winter corn crop even higher at 46.6 MMT versus a previous forecast of 42.1 MMT, although still slightly below last year's 46.9 MMT. Monday's crop progress report is expected to reveal little change in US corn conditions which were 75% good/excellent last week, far higher than 63% a year previously. The latest commitment of traders report shows managed money cutting their net long in corn by around 27.7k lots for the week through to Tuesday night. Their overall net long in now 146.4k contracts - their smallest holding since February. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their Argentine corn production estimate by 1.0 MMT to 25.0 MMT. Harvesting is still only making slow progress at 42% complete compared to 74% this time last year. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.47, up 3 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.43, up 3 cents. Jul 14 corn was still down 12 cents on the week.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a little higher on the day, but still with some fairly hefty losses for the week. Kansas wheat displayed the most strength as now unwelcome rains continue to disrupt the harvest there. "Kansas City’s strength may have been related to a weekly harvest report from US Wheat Associates. It pegs harvest at 30 to 40% complete in TX/OK, with yields averaging just 19 bu/acre. Average protein of 14.3% is higher than last year," said Benson Quinn Commodities. That yield figure is the equivalent of little more than half a tonne an acre. Informa estimated the US 2014 spring wheat area at 12.179 million acres, up from 12.059 million previously and versus 12.009 million from the USDA. One or two analysts are scaling back their ideas on Russian wheat production potential. Conab estimated the Brazilian 2014/15 wheat crop at 7.37 MMT versus 6.88 MMT previously and up 33% from 5.53 MMT a year ago. They see imports in 2014/15 falling to 5.5 MMT from an estimated 6.7 MMT this season. Last week the USDA had the US spring wheat crop at 71% good/excellent versus 62% this time a year ago. Those ratings may have risen 1-3 points in Monday's upcoming report. The latest commitment of traders report shows managed money flipping from a net long of around 1k lots in Chicago wheat to a net short of around 27k contracts as of Tuesday night. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.86, up 3/4 cent; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.13 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.83 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents. For the week CBOT wheat was down 32 1/4 cents, with KCBT down 22 1/4 cents and MGEX losing 25 3/4 cents.