06/012/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower following weekly export sales of only 87,500 MT vs the expected 750 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Total reductions for unknown destinations in this report were nearly 900 TMT. FCStone increased their view by 700 TMT on Brazilian production to 102.8 MMT, but Informa cut Argentina 1 MMT to 55 MMT. There's talk that Brazil could increase their Jan soybean export program significantly due to better availability and easier access to ports/improved logistics. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.86, down 17 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $9.94 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $307.50, down $6.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.77, down 23 points.
Corn: The market closed around 3 cents lower. Weekly export sales came in at 429,246 MT, towards the low end of expectations, but this was for a holiday week so perhaps can be excused. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says corn plantings will be 4.9 million ha, unchanged from last week, and up 27% from last year. They have corn planting progress at 82.9% complete compared to 71.3% last week. Others are scaling back on their planting and hence production ideas due to wet weather/flooding. Informa cut their view on Argentine production, down slightly from the previous estimate of 36.5 MMT to 36.0 MMT. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 3 1/4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. The USDA announced the sale of 100,000 MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. That helped temper the news that weekly export sales of only 183,700 MT were below modest trade expectations of 200-500 TMT. Farm Futures magazine forecast US winter wheat seedings of 34.8 million acres, the lowest total since 1913 as the low price/profit outlook encourages switching to other crops. Informa forecast Argentine wheat production at 15 MMT, up from their previous estimate of 13 MMT. They have been flexing their muscles lately on the international export arena, and another 2 MMT will only make matters worse. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/4, down 3 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.33 1/2, down 1 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.52 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP1.35/tonne at GBP142.65/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonnr at EUR171.25/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR169.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.75/tonne to EUR415.25/tonne.
For the week that puts London wheat GBP3.75/tonne higher In Paris, wheat is up EUR3.25/tonne, corn is up EUR1.25/tonne and rapeseed has gained EUR6.25/tonne.
Brussels reported 140 TMT worth of EU soft wheat exports this past week. That takes the season to date total to 12.87 MMT. Cumulative barley exports stand at 2.1 MMT, and corn imports are 4.7 MMT.
A harsh cold snap gripping the Black Sea area is expected to last a few more days yet, and could cause some winterkill issues for wheat unprotected by an adequate snow coverage.
In the US, Farm Futures magazine indicates winter wheat seedings of only 34.8 million acres, the lowest total since 1913, as growers switch to other crops.
The FAO said that Russia will harvest 115 MMT of grains this season, up 13% versus last year. Production in Ukraine will rise 6% to 63 MMT, they added.
Or the over-consumerised wankfest as I prefer to call it. Mine was as predictably shit as you would expect Christmas on Chemo to be. Usually when I throw up on Christmas Day it's due to having consumed excessive amounts of alcohol on Christmas Eve. This year I just did it anyway so as not to feel left out.
I did manage two halves of lager over the festive period (not in succession you understand, who do you think I am Georgie Best, no on two separate occassions), but couldn't manage to finish either I am so lightweight these days.
Christmas Dinner? Well, I decided to plump for a nice bag of the same stuff I've been "eating" for the last 365 days, straight into the stomach, cutting out the middle man. And totally undelicious it was too, even with the aroma of the real thing whafting in from the kitchen.
New Year was a quiet affair, until the in-laws came round and decided to recreate the opening scenes from Saving Private Ryan in the kitchen by giving Knocker a biscuit nano-seconds before Chummy. Well that was it, I was bitten on the thumb trying to break the buggers up (the dogs not the in-laws) and ended up in A&E.
All of this, and the fact that my white and red blood cell count is low (well it would be wouldn't it given the shite-in-a-bag that they are forcing me to eat?) culminated in me having to have two blood transfusions, a thumb that's bandaged up so it's 3 times it's normal size (not before they scrubbed it out with iodine and a toothbrush) and I'm still being sick!
Who said 2017 could only get better?
05/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower on the day. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered the estimated Argentine soybean planted area 300,000 ha to 19.6 million ha. Dr Cordonnier has expressed concern that not all soybean acres will be planted this year due to the rains and flooding. Production there could end up in the 53-55 MMT region rather than the 57 MMT currently predicted by the USDA some are suggesting. Everything looks rosy in Brazil though. One of Brazil’s largest farming groups (Grupo Bom Futuro) said that they expect their soybean yields to come in 10 percent above the previous season. Trade ideas on the Brazilian crop are said to be in the 103-105 MMT area versus the December WASDE forecast of 102 MMT. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 800 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.03 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.12 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $314.40, down $0.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.00, up 2 points.
Corn: Corn closed around a cent or two higher. Weekly US ethanol production came out today, up 15k barrels to nearly 1.04m barrels per day. This was a new record high and the tenth consecutive week that production has been over 1 million barrels/day which was friendly for corn. Taiwan’s MFIG are said to have bought 65 TMT of corn believed to be of US origin for March/April shipment. Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to 23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 650-850 TMT for tomorrow's report. In other news, a potential drier outlook for Brazil over the coming weeks could provide resistance to corn, as this dryness should allow safrinha corn in Brazil to go in 2-3 weeks early. This timing should allow maximum yield potential for this shorter season double crop corn, offsetting potential losses from excessive rain in Argentina, said Water Street Solutions. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.61 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.67 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed with fair gains. Algeria were said to have bought 475 TMT of mixed optional origin wheat, paying around $200/tonne C&F. Jordan, Japan, Morocco and Ethiopia are among others in the market tendering for wheat. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 94.9% complete according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. In Ukraine, temperatures are reaching -20C with insufficient snow cover in some areas, a threat to winter wheat. "Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008," say the HGCA. Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say UkrAgroConsult. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are a modest 200-500 TMT. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.34 1/2, up 8 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.50 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents.
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.40/tonne at GBP141.30/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR170.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn ended unchanged at EUR169.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR418.00/tonne.
France reported a 29% drop in exports from the leading port of Rouen in the week ending January 4th, to 53 TMT. That week’s total included 23.45 TMT of soft wheat to Tunisia and 29.5 TMT to Yemen.
Algeria are said to have bought up to 475 TMT of optional origin soft wheat at a around $198-$202/MT C&F.
Russia said that their 2016/17 grain exports were down 3.7% at 19.73 MMT. That includes 15.44 MMT of wheat, 1.83 MMT of barley and 2,32 MMT of corn.
Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to 23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult.
04/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans settled with decent gains after trading at its lowest level since November 18 earlier in the day. Strong global demand is underpinned by a lack of rapeseed. China reportedly sold 97.9 TMT of the 98.5 TMT of state owned rapeseed oil up for auction today. The USDA attache raised their estimate for the Brazilian soy crop 1 MMT to 102 MMT. The USDA crush report released yesterday afternoon indicated November was at 170.7 million bushels compared to 176.0 in October. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.06 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.15 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $315.30, up $7.00; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.98, up 41 points.
Corn: The market finished with net gains of around 4 cents, the 4th consecutive day of positive trade. The weekly USDA Export Sales report is delayed a day because of the holiday shortened week. Taiwan is tendering 40,000-65,000 MT of optional origin corn, including US material. AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure. In Argentina, heavy rainfall is raising fears about that last sowing works, say Agritel. Farmers have sown about 85% of soybeans and 72% of corn, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange. Russia said that they'd exported 2.32 MMT of corn so far this year. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59 3/4, up 4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.65 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat finished with decent gains. That USDA has 44% of Kansas wheat rated good to excellent versus 52% at the end of November. Oklahoma is now only 25% G/E, down from 53% a month ago. This news will likely have prompted some short-covering, even if the trade is relatively relaxed about the global supply and demand situation. Ethiopia are tendering for 720,000 MT of wheat of optional origin. China’s imported wheat auction continues to see little interest, with less than 100 TMT of the offered near 1 MMT sold today. Russia said that they'd exported 15.45 MMT of wheat so far this season. Total grain exports are running nearly 4% lower year-on-year. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/2, up 12 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.44 1/2, up 7 cents.
04/01/17 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly firmer on the day. Strength in Chicago soybeans supported rapeseed.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.55/tonne at GBP139.90/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR169.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR174.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR4.25/tonne to EUR419.00/tonne.
Russian and Ukraine exports slowed up to virtual halt last week due to the holiday, with the former shipping out only 24.3 MMT and the latter 40.3 MMT, according to APK Inform Agency.
News out of Russia is scarce as many there observe the extended Russian Orthodox Christmas.
"Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008," say the HGCA. Winter barley is pegged at 0.9 million ha, down from 1 million last year, making for also the smallest winter barley area since 2008, they add.
"Higher oilseed plantings, particularly winter OSR (up 0.2 million ha to 0.9 million ha), are driven by the increasingly favourable relationship of oilseed to grain. That's an increase of 28.5%, which is also likely due to that fact that plantings were hindered by a particularly dry late summer and autumn in 2015.
Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say UkrAgroConsult
AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure.