Erm....Attenshun....
Just in case you hadn't noticed the blog is only being updated with the bare minimum of info and effort this week. It is the Easter holidays after all. Also my old PC has died and gone to heaven.
My new(ish) PC, which had been sat unused in a box upstairs like an expectant father for at least twelve months, simply couldn't cut the mustard either. It was pre-installed with Windows Vista, which frankly is about as much use as a snake with t!ts.
So that has also been consigned to the computer scrap heap in the sky (well put to one side until I have the time to "downgrade" it to "comfy as a pair of slippers" XP).
My latest brand spanking new XP Pro PC is faster than that runner chap, no not the Jamaican bloke with only a very small todger who runs in the women's events, that Eugene Thingamejig or something. Eugene Bolt, is that the guy? I can't spell his real name so I can't very well look it up on Google can I, so we'll call him Eugene for now. Well it's faster than him.
So the good news is that I can now also work twice as fast as I did before.
More good news is that I will shortly resurrect the emailing of the blog headlines daily.
The bad news is that anyone who has requested them fairly recently may find that their incoming carefully saved email address will now have been lost to cyberspace. So if you want them, please fill in the form on the right, down a bit. Apologies for the inconvenience like, don't go straining you scroll down finger or anything will you.
Of course I'm not the sort of idiot who doesn't back up his email address book am I? No, I'm the sort of idiot who backs it up and assumes that one version of windows can easily read what another version of windows has piped out. My faith it seems may have been misplaced. I've far from given up on this yet, but it seems like file/import doesn't quite work. Leave it with me.
More bad news (for me) is that I will now have to pay for the privilege of providing you with these free headlines. You simply can't by-pass all this anti spam stuff without paying through the nose any more. I know that you will do the decent thing once those headlines start popping up in your inbox again.
Of course I may decide instead to allow a sponsor to pay for the outgoing emailing software & credits, in exchange for a stack of worldwide exposure. If only I could think of somebody who'd be interested in reaching the kind of discerning audience that this blog attracts.
Nope, I can't, so it looks like it's my round again.
TTFN
Nogger
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
May soybeans closed 8 1/2 cents higher at USD9.44 1/2 a bushel. A firmer dollar was a negative feature, but higher crude oil lent support. Crop production estimates out of South America just keep on coming in higher. Despite the weight of bearish output forecasts, beans are holding up surprisingly well.
Corn
May corn finished up 3/4 cent at USD3.46 1/2 per bushel. Weather forecasts are mixed, whilst warmer temperatures are beneficial, wetter conditions are not. Production estimates sure aren't bullish though. The Argentina Ministry of Agriculture raised its estimate of corn production to 22 MMT.
Wheat
CBOT May wheat closed up 10 cents at USD4.63 1/2 per bushel. KCBT May wheat rose 9 3/4 cents to USD4.81 1/2. MGEX May wheat gained 8 cents to USD4.97 1/2. There wasn't much change to the fundamentals, wheat is heavily oversold and liable to stage these sharp corrections from time to time. US winter wheat conditions are the best for five years.
EU Wheat Closing Comments
London wheat closed GBP0.30 higher at GBP97.05/tonne, Paris wheat ended up EUR0.75 at EUR126.75/tonne.
It was hardly what you would call thrill a minute stuff, with most of the trade still in Easter holiday mood.
US wheat futures rebounded from contract lows, which bolstered EU levels. Both the euro and the pound were lower against the dollar which also helped today.
EU farmers are busy with fieldwork, and seem to remain reluctant sellers at current levels. End users and shippers are similarly reticent, unless they need the stuff tomorrow that is in which case they might pay up a little.
Despite a harsh winter, EU crops seem to have emerged with little in the way of serious damage.
Stocks are high, and that doesn't look set to change any time soon.
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
May soybeans closed 6 cents lower at USD9.36 per bushel. November soybeans ended 3 1/2 cents lower at USD9.22 1/4 per bushel. Rapid progress with the soybean harvest in South America, and the resolution of the dock workers strike in Argentina weighed on futures today. "Virtually no rain is predicted in the upcoming week in South America soybean farms due to a large area of cool High Pressure. Dry conditions will hasten the soybean harvest in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay," said Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections. Informa now peg the 2009/10 Brazilian soybean crop at a huge 68.1 MMT, up 1.6 MMT from its March forecast, with 75% of the crop harvested as of March 31.
Corn
May corn was up 1 1/4 cents at USD3.45 3/4 a bushel, and July corn was up 1 1/2 cents to USD3.57 1/2. A weaker dollar and crude oil pushing above USD85/barrel was supportive for corn. The outlook for improved weather conditions across the Midwest, and the potential therefore for timely planting is likely to cap any gains. It's not all perfect though. "A band of very heavy rainfall is expected to develop along a warm front from central Iowa to southern Michigan. Showers will begin tonight. Some thunderstorms may be severe, causing 2-inch rains in east Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and Michigan," says Gail Martell.
Wheat
CBOT May wheat ended down 1 1/4 cents at USD4.53 1/2 a bushel. KCBT May wheat was 1 3/4 cents higher at USD4.71 3/4. MGEX May wheat was up 1/2 cent to USD4.89 1/2. CBOT wheat set fresh contract lows yet again during the session. Despite reduced plantings US stocks are too high and prices are uncompetitive. What has gone into the ground looks to be in largely pretty good shape. In its first weekly crop ratings report of 2010 the USDA said that the winter crop was only 6% very poor/poor, 29% fair, and 65% good to excellent after the close. A year ago only 43% of the crop was rated good to excellent. "Wheat jointing is 75% under way in Oklahoma and accelerating to 35% in Kansas. The Texas wheat crop is thriving with ample field moisture and could make a surprisingly high yield," says Gail Martell.
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
May Soybeans closed at USD9.42, up 1 cent; Nov Soybeans at USD9.25 ¾, up 7 ¾ cents; May Soybean Meal at USD365.90, up USD0.10/ton; May Soybean Oil at USD38.98, up 67 points. It was a quiet end to a hectic week, with many participants glad of a long weekend. Export sales of 178,500 MT for delivery in 2009/10 plus sales of 210,000 MT for delivery in 2010/11 were in line with expectations of 350,000 – 550,000 MT. China (66,500 MT) took some of the old crop and 221,000 MT of the new crop. Actual shipments of 1,033,700 MT were robust with China taking 407,000 MT.
Corn
May Corn futures finished at USD3.44 ½, down ½ cent; December Corn futures closed at USD3.77, up ¾ cent. Net export sales of 826,100 MT for delivery in 2009/10 plus a further 400 MT for delivery in 2010/11 meant that total sales were above forecasts of 600,000 – 750,000 MT. Shipments fo of 1,214,600 MT were also pretty respectable. "The Argentina Ministry of Agriculture raised its estimate of corn production to 22 MMT, up from 21.5 MMT earlier, based on favourable yield results in the harvest. So far, 42% of the crop has been gathered. The El Nino effect is typically a yield builder for Argentina corn because of the wet signal it produces," says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections.
Wheat
May CBOT Wheat closed at USD4.54 ¾, up 4 ¼ cents; May KCBT Wheat at USD4.70, up 8 ¼ cents; May MGEX Wheat at USD4.89, up 7 cents. Net export sales of 430,600 MT for delivery in 2009/10 plus sales of 53,000 MT for delivery in 2010/11 just beat forecasts for sales of 300,000 – 450,000 MT. Actual shipments of 693,000 MT were a marketing-year high. In addition to that the USDA separately reported a one-off sale of 140,000 MT of 2010/11 wheat to Nigeria today. Despite the fact that the US continue to miss out on sales to some traditionally "normal" locations, they are on track to meet, if not exceed, current USDA projections for the 2009/10 marketing year.
EU Wheat Ends Little Changed
It was a quiet end to a shortened trading week Thursday with May London feed wheat closing unchanged at GBP96.75/tonne, and May Paris milling wheat EUR0.25 higher at EUR125.50/tonne.
Given the disappointing numbers from the USDA yesterday, and a very weak close last night, EU futures held up surprisingly well.
This is maybe due to the recent realisation that EU wheat doesn't necessarily need to follow Chicago's lead, EU wheat is amongst the cheapest around at the moment.
Egypt bought 60,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender today, but the trade seems almost relaxed to sit back and let the Russians pick up the orders if they want them.
Some talk suggests that EU wheat stocks maybe aren't quite as burdensome as the market rhetoric keeps making out. Others report that supplies out of the likes of Ukraine have all but dried up.
That said, the market appears to be in a state of equilibrium at the moment. After a hard winter, EU wheat seems to have suddenly made rapid progress this past few weeks. The second highest crop on record looks likely for 2010, which can hardly be viewed as overly bullish.
Crude oil made an 18 month high in excess of USD85/barrel today despite bearish stocks data coming out of the US yesterday. It's not too difficult to make a case out for crude continuing to rise throughout the remainder of 2010, which may support the grains sector in the long run.
USDA Export Sales
The USDA report the following export sales in their weekly report:
Wheat
Net sales of 430,600 MT for delivery in 2009/10 plus sales of 53,000 MT for delivery in 2010/11 just beat forecasts for sales of 300,000 – 450,000 MT. Actual shipments of 693,000 MT were a marketing-year high. In addition to that the USDA separately reported a one-off sale of 140,000 MT of 2010/11 wheat to Nigeria today.
Soybeans
Net sales of 178,500 MT for delivery in 2009/10 plus sales of 210,000 MT for delivery in 2010/11 were in line with expectations of 350,000 – 550,000 MT. China (66,500 MT) took some of the old crop and 221,000 MT of the new crop. Actual shipments of 1,033,700 MT were robust with China taking 407,000 MT.
Corn
Net sales of 826,100 MT for delivery in 2009/10 plus a further 400 MT for delivery in 2010/11 meant that total sales were above forecasts of 600,000 – 750,000 MT. Shipments fo of 1,214,600 MT were also pretty respectable.
Crude Oil Sets Fresh 2010 High - Déjà Vu Around The Corner?
Crude oil prices rose quietly to a fresh high for 2010 today, peaking at USD84.62/barrel in mid morning trade. That's it's best levels in eighteen months.
A suddenly weaker dollar and strong demand from China seems to be what many of the newswires are citing as the reason for today's rise. US non-farm payrolls data for March is due out on Friday, despite the holiday. Ideas are that payrolls will have risen for only the second time since the global recession began. That might boost confidence that the worst is over and US demand for crude will now start to increase.
Nevertheless, it's a pretty impressive performance from crude, in the wake of yesterdays bearish stocks data from the US Energy Dept. US crude stocks rose by almost 3 million barrels, making a 10 million barrel increase in the last fortnight alone. Gasoline inventories also rose when a 2 million barrel drop had been forecast, yet still prices go up.
"Markets that rise on bearish news are impressive enough, but markets that rise on overtly bearish news are truly impressive. This is one such market," said the highly regarded Dennis Gartman earlier this week.
How right he is. What will the market do when we get some overtly bullish news like an escalation of tensions in the Middle East? Or more terrorist attacks on pipelines in Nigeria?
I suspect that there might be some fund money flowing stealthily back into the crude oil market again. And we all know what trouble jumping on that particular bandwagon caused last time.
Is crude set to be the BIG story of 2010? I wouldn't be at all surprised.
Wheat Urgently Wanted - Top Prices Paid
Anything will do. We'll pay GBP160/tonne (USD245/tonne) for as much as you can throw at us. Don't worry about the quality, it's only going to get left out in the rain to rot anyway. We've only got one machine for testing bushel weight and that's broken so just send in anything you like. All welcome.
Lots of love,
The Indian Government
It's the dream scam of the century. Those lovable bent as a nine bob note halfwits the Indian government have fixed the price that they will pay Indian farmers for their wheat this season at a very generous Rs11,000/tonne. It's all in the name of supporting the rural economy apparently. Well at that price it would be impolite to say no wouldn't it? Support away boys, and here's the best bit there's no strict rules on quality or any of that nonsense, they'll take anything!
They'll be unwittingly supporting the rural economy in neighbouring Pakistan and beyond as well at those prices I'd have thought too. I wonder if they'd like to buy any of that black smelly stuff left over from last year that they've already paid once for as well? Well put me down for a slice of that action, where do I apply? What I've got to ring your call centre in Milton Keynes, bugger, I won't be able to understand a word they're saying.
Strike Over, Problem Sorted, Right?
Well those naughty militant Argy dock workers didn't quite get everything they asked for. They had to compromise a bit on their outrageous 100% pay increase demands and settle for a reportedly "more modest" 27% rise instead.
So that's the end of that then, eh? You'd certainly think so judging by Chicago's reaction to the news last night with front month beans down 33 cents and meal shedding USD17.30.
Of course that isn't going to do diddly squat to get any Argy beans or meal to Europe any quicker until the very end of April at the earliest. Acute congestion problems, accentuated by the record crops there, will keep loading delays to at least two to three weeks - and quite possibly more then that as the season wears on.
The fashion for chartering boats to load in both Argentina and then Brazil before sailing for Europe is hardly going to hurry things along either.
Oh, and there's another problem, suppose you were a docker in other parts of Argentina (of Brazil), and your compatriots in Rosario have just had a 27% increase for the sake of a ten day strike. I think that you might fancy a piece of that action as well, might you not?
And I guess that the truckers could do with some extra folding stuff too? Then there's the mood amongst the pot banging, tyre burning farmers to consider - losing 35% to the government in export tax on every soybean exported.
It's not over 'til the fat lady sails. Talking of Mrs N#1, oooh no missus don't, nay nay and thrice nay it's not her fault she's big boned. I wouldn't exactly say she was fat, but she did have her own postcode. She used to wear two watches you know, one for each time zone she was in.
