CBOT Close
07/10/10 -- Soybeans
November soybeans ended 3 cents higher at USD10.65; December soymeal ended USD0.40 higher at USD296.20; December soyoil settled 0.34 cents higher at 44.12. Export sales of 947,400 MT were down from the previous week, but in line with estimates for sales of 750-950,000 MT. The market is particularly cautious ahead of tomorrow's USDA report given last week's surprises. Soybean production and ending stocks are expected to see small reductions.
Corn
December corn settled up 9 3/4 cents at USD4.98 1/4; Export sales were disappointing at a combined 632,500 MT against estimations for sales of 750-850,000 MT. In tomorrow's USDA report ending stocks for corn are seen at 1.172 billion (USDA 1.116 billion last month). Some reports suggest that the USDA may raise planted acres to compensate for lower yields, leaving production relatively unchanged. Mexico and South Korea purchased 822,960 MT and 110,000 MT respectively of US corn today.
Wheat
CBOT December wheat closed up 1 cent at USD6.59 1/4; KCBT Dec wheat rose 2 cents to USD6.99 1/2; MGEX Dec wheat rose 1 1/4 cents to USD7.06 1/2. All exchanges finished well off early highs ahead of tomorrow's USDA report. Export sales were above the average trade estimates (450-650,000 MT) at 808,400 MT. Ending stocks for wheat tomorrow are seen at 873 million (USDA last month: 902 million). Reports coming out of Western Australia are also a worry, where the wheat crop is seen at less than half last year.
EU Wheat Close
07/10/10 -- Nov London wheat closed GBP2.25 higher at GBP157.30/tonne, with Nov Paris wheat up EUR4.00 at EUR208.00/tonne.
The pound broke through 1.60 against the dollar for the first time since late January, but stayed there only briefly before slipping back below 1.59 by the close.
The euro remains strong, setting a five month high of over 88 pence against the pound after the Halifax said British house prices plunged a record 3.6 percent in September.
Strength in Chicago grains added support ahead of another raft of key data from the USDA tomorrow.
Ukraine finally bit the bullet and said it would impose export quotas until at least the end of the year.
Brussels issued export licences for 480,000 MT of soft wheat this past week, bringing the cumulative total so far this marketing year to 6.8 MMT compared with 5.1 MMT this time last year. Barley exports are running at 1.5 MMT versus 289,000 MT twelve months ago.
UK exports are also continuing at a strong pace, with some already questioning how much wheat is going to be left for sale come the spring.
Early Call On CBOT
07/10/10 -- The overnights closed mostly steady with wheat around 6-7c firmer, corn up 3-5c and beans 8-10c higher.
Crude oil is around half a dollar higher and the USD is weak.
The market is positioning itself ahead of tomorrow's crucial USDA data and nervous of another surprise. There seems to be some talk that although dropping corn yields is a given, they may actually find some extra acres to leave production above 13 billion bushels. Soybean output is also expected to fall.
Ending stocks for corn are seen at 1.172 billion (USDA 1.116 billion last month), with beans coming in at 337 million (350 million) and wheat at 873 million (902 million).
Today's weekly export sales were neutral for corn and beans and friendly for wheat.
Dryness in Brazil is still a concern, although soybean plantings are expected to be record.
Reports coming out of Western Australia are also a worry, where the wheat crop is seen at less than half last year.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5c; wheat up 5-7c; beans up 8-10c.
USDA Export Sales
07/10/10 -- The USDA today reported the following export sales for the period September 24-30, 2010:
Wheat
Net sales 808,400 MT for the 2010/11 marketing year were primarily for Egypt (147,500 MT), Nigeria (113,600 MT), Thailand (95,500 MT), the Philippines (86,500 MT), Saudi Arabia (52,300 MT), and Brazil (41,000 MT). That beat forecasts for sales of 450-650,000 MT. Exports of 878,200 MT were up 12 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Egypt (153,600 MT), Nigeria (111,700 MT), South Korea (89,000 MT), Japan (64,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (52,300 MT), and South Africa (45,400 MT).
Corn
Net sales of 607,100 MT for 2010/11 and 25,400 MT for delivery in 2011/12 fell short of estimations for sales of 750-850,000 MT. The main buyers were Syria (171,900 MT), Japan (166,400 MT), Venezuela (85,000 MT), Indonesia (67,400 MT), South Korea (57,700 MT), and Mexico (33,200 MT). Exports of 978,600 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week. The primary destinations were Japan (364,500 MT), Mexico (128,300 MT), Syria (103,700 MT), Indonesia (63,500 MT), South Korea (57,800 MT), and Israel (57,200 MT).
Soybeans
Net sales of 947,400 MT were down 46 percent from the previous week, but in line with estimates for sales of 750-950,000 MT. The main buyer as usual was China (624,300 MT) followed by Mexico (75,800 MT). Exports of 654,400 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week. The destinations were primarily to China (335,900 MT), Mexico (151,800 MT), Taiwan (57,000 MT), Syria (30,100 MT), and Morocco (27,300 MT).
Lets Have A Whip Round
07/10/10 -- The cash-strapped Argies are so desperate for a few bob that they've had the temerity to point an accusing finger at the good old honest as the day is long Agri giants for tax evasion: As if
Muppets
07/10/10 -- Incoming text message this morning:
"Hello everyone - this is the no for my new iPhone 3G - please retain"
Ha, ha. I've got an iPhone 3G and I just wanted to let the world know. Except I forgot to tell you who I am.
So what use is that to anybody then? In the unlikely event that I want to get in touch with a muppet then I'll send you a text back. You muppet.
Talking of muppets, who decided to host the Commonwealth Games in India?
I hear this morning that an assortment of British and Australian swimmers/divers at the Games have gone down with "Delhi Belly". I thought I spotted one of our lot was white when she dove into the pool, yet strangely brown when she got out of it again. Cheers.
CBOT Close
Soybeans
November soybeans ended 9 3/4 cents lower at USD10.62; December soymeal closed USD3.50 lower at USD295.80; December soyoil settled 0.04 cents lower at 43.78. The market is nervous ahead of Friday's USDA report. Analysts are predicting the final yield at 44.9bpa and a 3.475 billion bushel crop. That's up on last month's USDA figures of 3.359 with a yield of 44.7bpa.
Corn
December corn ended 2 1/2 cents lower at USD4.88 1/2 a bushel; March corn ended 2 1/2 cents lower at USD4.99 1/4 a bushel. Private exporters reported that South Korea bought 116,000 MT of US corn. Ahead of Friday's USDA report the range of trade guesses are 158.2-162.1bpa with an average of 160.1bpa. The USDA said 162.5bpa last month. Lanworth Inc today placed yields at 158.3bpa, with a crop of 12.953 billion bushels, compared with 13.16 billion projected by the USDA last month.
Wheat
CBOT Dec wheat ended down 5 1/4 cents at USD6.58 1/4 a bushel; KCBT Dec wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to USD6.97 1/2 a bushel; MGEX Dec wheat closed 6 3/4 cents lower at USD7.05 1/4. Warmer and drier than normal temperatures are holding back US winter wheat plantings. Kansas, the main grower of HRW, was 45% planted as of Sunday, behind their five year average by 8 points. It remains too dry in Western Australia, where the nation's wheat belt received less than 50% of normal rainfall in September, say QT Weather.
EU Wheat Close
Nov London wheat closed GBP0.80/tonne higher at GBP155.05/tonne, with Nov Paris wheat down EUR1.50/tonne to EUR204.00/tonne.
Another strong showing from the euro was enough to weigh on Paris wheat after America came in looking a bit "so-so" in afternoon trade. The pound slipped perilously close to falling below 1.14 against the single currency for the first time since May 21st.
The euro also rose to it's best levels against the dollar since late January, whilst the pound was under pressure on ideas that more QE is on the cards. That was sufficient to ensure that London and Paris wheat move in opposite directions for now.
It is worth noting that open interest in Paris wheat continues to decline, falling to 103,000 last night, although that is still more than 5 MMT.
Private firms continue to estimate this season's US corn crop at well below last month's USDA estimate. Chicago-based analysts The Linn Group yesterday pegged this year's corn yield at 158.2 bushels/acre. Lanworth Inc today concurred, placing corn yields at 158.3 bushels/acre, with a crop of 12.953 billion bushels, compared with 13.16 billion projected by the USDA last month.
The USDA themselves are out with a revised estimate on Friday, given last week's shock for corn the trade remains cautious ahead of this report.
Russian winter grain plantings are tailing off as temperatures drop, whilst reports of acute drought in Western Australia paint a bleak picture of wheat prospects there.
CBOT Close
Soybeans
November soybeans closed at USD10.71 3/4, up 17 3/4 cents; October soybean meal closed at USD294.90, up USD6.90; October soybean oil closed at 43.47, up 37 points. Private exporters announced the sale of 225,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2010/11 delivery. A rebound from recent heavy losses was probably the underlying theme. Although "twenty percent of US soybeans were gathered in the week ending October 3, according to USDA, pushing the US soybean harvest to 37% complete, one of the fastest on record," say Martell Crop Projections.
Corn
December corn closed at USD4.91, up 19 1/2 cents; March Corn closed at USD5.01 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents. The US Grains Council touring China’s corn growing areas are now estimating China’s corn production at 158 MMT, a lot less than the USDA's current estimate. Corn has rebounded sharply from an approach towards the USD4.50 resistance level. The USDA reported yesterday that US corn harvesting advanced just 10% to 37% complete as of Sunday.
Wheat
December CBOT wheat closed at USD6.63 1/2, up 16 1/4 cents; December KCBT wheat closed at USD7.01, up 18 cents; December MGEX wheat closed at USD7.12, up 16 1/4 cents. Iraq issued a tender for 100,000 MT of wheat. Statistics Canada say that their wheat crop will come in at 22.2 MMT, 17% down on last season. The market seems to have regained some confidence ahead of Friday's USDA report.
EU Wheat Close
EU wheat futures regained some of their recent lost ground today as US grains surged on ideas that the latest price correction had been overdone.
Nov London wheat closed GBP5.20/tonne higher at GBP154.25/tonne, and Nov Paris wheat gained EUR6.25/tonne to EUR205.50/tonne.
Defra pegged the UK wheat harvest for 2010 at 14.8 MMT, 5% up on last year. Barley production will come in at 5.2 MMT, a 23% decrease on last season, they said. Bumper rapeseed yields boosted UK rapeseed production to a record 2.24 MMT, they added.
The results were largely in line with other trade estimates.
Statistics Canada released an updated forecast for their wheat crop yesterday, placing output at 22.2 MMT, 17% down on last season. Rapeseed production was pegged at 10.4 MMT, 12% down on last year. Recent weather has improved harvest progress although it still lags normal.
Russian planting is well behind schedule, and now that freezing temperatures have arrived winter grain sowings may well end up 4-6 million hectares behind last season.
Egypt buying French wheat, in combination with Canadian, over the weekend lends support, although the bulls are cautious of another bear surprise from thE USDA on Friday.
CBOT Close
Soybeans
November soybeans ended 3 cents lower at USD10.54; December soymeal ended USD2.40 higher at USD292.30; December soyoil settled 38 points lower at 43.45. The market recovered somewhat from heavy losses late last week as current levels flushed out some buying interest. A public holiday in China this week however means that interest from that quarter could be limited this side of the weekend. A firmer dollar added a bit of pressure.
Corn
December corn ended 5 3/4 cents higher at USD4.71 1/2; March corn closed 4 3/4 cents higher at USD4.83. Futures rebounded from recent heavy losses, encouraged by corn's inability to take out the key USD4.50/bushel level. The market is still coming to terms with Friday's surprisingly bearish stocks data from the USDA however, and looks set to remain cautious ahead of more data from the same quarter due this Friday.
Wheat
CBOT December wheat ended down 7 3/4 cents at USD6.47 1/4; KCBT December wheat fell 6 1/4 cents to USD6.83; December MGEX wheat fell 10 1/4 cents to USD6.95 3/4. Egypt passed on US wheat in a weekend tender, picking up 240,000 MT of French and Canadian wheat instead. Improved weather conditions in the Canadian Prairies this past week saw harvesting advance from 34% complete to 56% done. Russia seems to have moved from summer to winter very quickly with a weekend freeze in the Volga and upper Black Sea wheat growing areas.
EU Wheat Close
EU grains extended declines from Friday with Nov London wheat ending GBP3.20 lower at GBP149.05/tonne and Nov Paris wheat closing down EUR4.00 at EUR199.25/tonne.
That was the first London close sub-GBP150/tonne since late August and the first Paris close beneath EUR200/tonne since the end of July.
Chicago corn closed limit down Friday after the USDA released a "questionable" stocks report pegging US Sept 1st corn inventories at much higher levels than anticipated.
US wheat and soybeans were also sharply lower Friday, which carried through into early trade today, which put further pressure on EU grains.
Egypt bought a mixture of French and Canadian wheat in a weekend tender, passing on US origin, which provided some support for Paris wheat.
Bargain hunting, and an element of rebound in the Chicago markets this afternoon dragged EU grains off their lows by the close.
Paris corn finished the day with losses of around EUR4/tonne, with Paris rapeseed generally EUR2.50-3.50/tonne easier.
Early Call On Chicago
The overnight grains were a sea of red again this morning, with beans ending 10-12c lower, wheat down 8-10 and corn down around 9c.
The hangover from last week's USDA report continues, with some of last week's late arriving bulls already looking at losses of around 65c on corn from recent highs.
The USDA WASDE report is due on Friday, what surprises will they throw at the market next? Under these kind of conditions maybe one or two spec longs might fancy liquidating a bit more length.
US weather conditions are beneficial.
"A Sunday morning freeze ended the growing season in the North-Central United States with temperatures in the upper 20s-low 30s F. Corn was virtually all ripe and thus safe from damage Freezing temperatures occurred as far south as Nebraska affecting most of Iowa, Wisconsin, South Dakota and Minnesota," say Martell Crop Projections.
"Nearly ripe corn would actually benefit from a freeze, agronomists say, due to the rapid drying that occurs afterward. The best scenario for fast crop drying is when warm temperatures develop right after a hard freeze. As luck would have it, very warm temperatures are predicted later this week in the freeze affected states. The outlook calls for Upper Midwest highs with abundant sunshine and breezy conditions. Perfect for crop drying and harvesting," they add.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12c, wheat and corn 8-10c lower.
CBOT Close
Soybeans
November Soybeans closed at USD10.57, down 49 3/4 cents; October soybean meal closed at USD285.70, down USD16.40; October soybean oil closed at 43.49, down 121 points. It was a bit of a car crash tonight, and on the week overall with beans finishing 69 cents lower for the week. The US weather outlook is conducive to further rapid harvest progress. The market is still hungover from yesterday's bearish USDA corn stocks numbers. China will be on holiday until next Friday, so there will most likely be limited export business from the main buyer of US soybeans for a few days.
Corn
December corn closed at USD4.65 3/4, down 30 cents; March corn closed USD4.78 1/4, down 30 cents. The first four contract months closed down the thirty cent limit tonight. Dec corn was 56 cents lower on the week. Yesterday's USDA stocks report showed old crop corn stocks at 1.71 billion bushels, surprising the trade which was expecting a much lower number. More than one news wire is pointing out that these extra stocks are sufficient to counteract 2010 yields coming in 4 bu/acre lower than the USDA's September estimate, as many in the trade are forecasting.
Wheat
December CBOT wheat closed at USD6.55, down 19 cents; December KCBT wheat closed ay USD6.79 1/4, down 18 1/2 cents; December MGEX wheat closed at USD7.06, down 15 cents. Spillover weakness from corn depressed wheat, which found itself in the strange position of being the strongest leg of what has to be said was a very weak three tonight. It finished 65 cents lower for the week on the CBOT. This afternoon’s CFTC report showed Managed Money have decreased their net long position by 18,912 contracts from Tuesday to Tuesday.
EU Wheat Closing Comments
Nov London wheat closed GBP0.75 lower at GBP152.25/tonne, with Nov Paris wheat EUR4.75 lower at EUR203.25/tonne.
On the week overall London wheat declined a fraction under GBP10.00/tonne and Paris futures fell just over EUR20.00/tonne.
A surprisingly high Sept 1st corn stocks estimate from the USDA yesterday has got the died in the wool US corn bulls spooked. That has triggered a sharp downwards correction in heavily overbought conditions, undermining EU grains as well. US wheat stocks were also towards the upper end of expectations and the largest since the 1987-88 crop year.
The corn number suggests that US prices at two year highs are indeed rationing demand.
A sharply higher euro has accelerated French wheat declines, relative to those in London, despite a robust start to the 2010/11 exporting marketing year. The pound slumped below 1.15 against the euro today for the first time since May.
Brussels granted export licences for a 2010 marketing year record of just over a million tonnes of soft wheat this past week, taking the year-to-date total to 6.35 MMT compared to 4.7 MMT at this point last season. Most, if not all, of that was probably sold some time ago at substantially lower levels.
Crop conditions in Argentina are improving and a wheat crop 50% higher than last season is on the cards. Meanwhile potential production in Australia is a moot point, with output in the west likely to be sharply lower on drought, Southern Australia state was hit by a frost this week, whilst crops in the east look like being at of near record levels.
EU Rapemeal Prices
Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne:
Oct 216,00
Nov 208,00
Nov/Jan 11 207,00
Feb/Apr 201,00
May/1st h.July 196,00
Aug/Oct 11 181,00
Early Call On Chicago
The overnight trade closed mostly lower. Crude oil is staging it's own quiet little mini-rally, around a dollar higher at USD81/barrel, its best level since 11th August.
On the week as a whole so far (excluding the overnights) we see Dec wheat down 46c, Dec corn down 26c, Nov beans down 19 1/4c, Dec meal down USD10.10 and Dec soyoil up 20 points.
Corn is still under pressure from yesterday's shock stocks number from the USDA. More than one news wire is pointing out that these extra stocks are sufficient to counteract 2010 yields coming in 4 bu/acre lower than the USDA's September estimate, as many in the trade are forecasting.
That has taken a lot of wind out of the bulls sails. The much higher stocks figure also implies that usage has slowed at these prices. The weight of existing spec length is also a potentially bearish factor. Will funds continue to pile into corn now we are into a new month and new quarter, given the size of longs they already hold?
For beans we have the ongoing US harvest, which isn't throwing up any yield concerns, assisted by warm and dry conditions. Soaking rains are on the horizon for Brazil too, although Chinese demand continues unabated with weekly sales of 1,295,200 MT yesterday.
FCStone are reportedly out with their crop production numbers later this afternoon, ahead of the USDA's WASDE report next Friday.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn down 6-8c, beans down 5-7c, wheat down 2-4c.
Another Thing That Really Annoys Me
Halloween. The supermarkets have been full of Halloween stuff for a couple of weeks now as they attempt to squeeze more blood out of our stone-like wallets and purses.
A report on Reuters today reveals that as far as Tesco are concerned only Christmas and Easter are bigger earning events. They expect to sell GBP55 million of Halloween-related products this year, the money-grabbing cynical parasites.
We used to dunk for apples when we were kids, not wander the streets begging for sweets. Trick or treat my arse. Get in and get your homework done.
Mind you, MrsN#1 always came in useful at Halloween. I'm not saying she was ugly, but if she'd have been a font she'd have been wingdings. It was a right palaver trying to get the kids to sleep at night after she'd read them a bedtime story I can tell you. No wonder our electricity bill was so high.
EU Wheat Exports
Brussels have granted export licences for just over a million tonnes of soft wheat this past week, taking the year-to-date total to 6.35 MMT compared to 4.7 MMT at this point last season.
Wow, demand for wheat is huge isn't it even at these prices, we're going to run out by Christmas at this rate.
Hang on a minute, when was all this wheat sold exactly? Was it last week or six months ago? When Johnny Grain Trader was so keen on getting his name in the papers he was giving the stuff away, at the bottom of the market, to all manner of exotic destinations?
Argy Wheat Planting Finished
Argentine farmers have finished their wheat plantings and can expect a crop of "at least 11.3 MMT" according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. That's an increase of more than 50% on last season's crop.
Planted area is seen at 3.2 million hectares by the Exchange, more than 30% up on last season when sowings slumped to just 3.2 million hectares on drought and farmer dissatisfaction with on-off government export meddling.
Corn plantings are 26% done and are expected to cover 3 million hectares this season, 11% up on last year.
SFP Exchange Rate Set
A well-timed bit of weakness by the pound will doubtless provide a welcome boost for British farmers for the second year running. The exchange rate for the Single Farm Payment Scheme has been set at 0.85995, or just over 1.16 if you prefer it that way round.
That's not quite as good as last year, but a lot better than the 1.22 (0.82p) level that the pound was running at just a month ago.
I assume then that I can expect a flood of "beer donations" when the cheques start to arrive?
Chicago Close
Soybeans
November soybeans closed USD11.06 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; October soybean meal closed USD302.10, down USD0.40; October soybean oil closed 44.70, up 64 points. The USDA pegged soybean stocks at 151 million, exactly in line with trade estimates. Weekly export sales were substantial at 1,737,600 MT. China took 1,295,200 MT of that.
Corn
December corn closed at USD4.95 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; March corn closed at USD5.08 1/4, down 9 cents. Net weekly export sales of 925,900 MT were up 65 percent from the previous week and beat expectations for sales of 650-850 TMT. The USDA's quarterly stocks report pegged September 1st corn stocks at 1.708 billion bushels, well above trade expectations of 1.407 billion.
Wheat
December CBOT wheat closed USD6.74, down 9 1/2 cents; December KCBT wheat closed USD7.07 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; December MGEX wheat closed USD7.21, down 3 cents. Export sales came in at 630,800 MT for the 2010/11 marketing year. Egypt took 123,900 MT of that. Expectations were for sales of 650-850 TMT. The USDA reported 2.46 billion bushels of wheat stocks, slightly above expectations of 2.44 billion bushels.
