Informa And Allendale Released Markedly Different Production Forecasts
An exceptionally wet start to the growing season followed by largely ideal weather conditions ever since still has the trade scratching its head over final corn & soybean output in the US.
This was highlighted Friday with the release of two very different production estimates from highly regarded firms Informa and Allendale.
Consulting firm Informa Economics forecast the U.S. corn crop this year at 12.406 billion bushels, and soy production at 3.035 billion bushels.
Commodities brokerage and research firm Allendale Inc forecast U.S. corn production this year at 12.090 billion bushels and soybeans at 2.818 billion bushels.
Allendale's annual survey of farmers in 20 states conducted August 15 to 29 this year was lower than Informa's corn estimate by 316 million bushels, and 217 million less for soybeans.
In August, the U.S. Agriculture Department forecast corn production at 12.288 billion bushels and the soybean crop at 2.973 billion. USDA will update its estimate on September 12.
Allendale anticipates bigger corn crop, smaller beans
Ahead of the USDA's August 12 production, supply and demand update, Allendale Inc. sees the Ag Department raising their corn estimate and lowering their soybean projection. The report is due out at 13:30 BST.
Allendale has corn at 12.030 billion bushels, up from the USDA's last guess of 11.715 billion but down from last year's total of 13.074 billion bushels. Soybeans are pegged at 2.971 billion bushels, down from the USDA's most recent projection of 3 billion but up from last year's final of 2.585 billion bushels. Allendale did not change their harvest acreage expectations for either crop and used an average yield for corn at 152.4 bushels per acre and an average yield for beans at 41.2 bushels per acre.
Wheat is pegged at 2.547 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's previous figure of 2.461 billion and the 2007/08 final of 2.067 billion bushels.
Allendale sees corn stocks at 1.092 billion bushels, but notes that if demand changes stocks will easily fall under than mark. Beans are estimated at 109 million bushels, which would be the lowest since 1972. U.S. wheat stocks are expected to be around 538 million bushels.
Allendale see BIG US soybean plantings in 2008
Illinois based analytical firm Allendale Inc. sees U.S. producers intending to plant less corn in 2008, while increasing planted area for soybeans and wheat.
For soybeans, Allendale has planting intentions at 74.239 million acres (much higher than the USDA's current 71m estimate). That'd be an increase of 10.608 million from 2007 and would be the fourth largest in U.S. history. With Allendale's trend line yield of 42.29 bushels per acre, production is seen at 3.098 billion bushels, compared to last year's harvest of 2.585 billion bushels.
Allendale has corn at 86.438 million acres (vs the USDA's 90m), which would be down 7.162 million from 2007, but if realized would still be the second largest since 1944's 95.475 million acres. Allendale's trend line yield is 155.28 bushels per acre, putting their production forecast at 12.220 billion bushels. 2007's crop totaled 13.074 billion bushels.
Total U.S. wheat planted is pegged at 62.330 million acres, up 1.897 million from 2007. According to Allendale, if realized, it'd be the biggest since 2000's 62.549 million acres. Using Allendale's trend line yield of 41.50 bushels per acre, 2008 wheat production is placed at 2.259 billion bushels, compared to the 2007 total of 2.067 billion.
By type: winter wheat planting is seen at 46.670 million acres, 1.683 million more than 2007, "other" spring wheat is pegged at 13.511 million acres, an increase of 214,000 and durum is expected to hold steady at 2.149 million acres.
The United States Department of Agriculture will release their prospective plantings estimates Monday, March 31.
