USDA - The Salient Points
09/02/11 -- Corn got a large bullish boost from the USDA today when they dropped 2010/11 US ending stocks from 745 million bushels last month to 675 million this time round, more than 50 million below what the trade was expecting. That helped trim world corn ending stocks from 127 MMT last month to 122.5 MMT, a 37-year low and the 4th tightest in the past 50 years. The Argentine corn crop was dropped 1.5 MMT to 22 MMT.
US wheat ending stocks were left unchanged at 818 million bushels, against expectations for a reduction of around 8-10 million. World ending stocks fell slightly to 177.8 MMT, there were no major alterations to production around the globe.
US soybean ending stocks were also left unchanged at 140 million bushels, against ideas of a small reduction. The Argentine crop was cut 1 MMT to 49.5 MMT, but the Brazilian crop was raised by a similar amount to 68.5 MMT.
So there it is, majorly bullish for corn as US ethanol production continues to increase. Neutral to even slightly negative for wheat and soybeans, but corn is expected to start sharply higher and drag everything else with it.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 20-30c, wheat and soybeans up 10-12c.
USDA Crop Numbers
10/11 Prod'n USDA Sep Avg Est Range USDA Aug 09/10
Corn 13.160 13.199 12.880-13.410 13.365 13.110
Soybeans 3.483 3.406 3.354-3.500 3.433 3.359
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10/11 Yields USDA Sep Avg Est Range USDA Aug 09/10
Corn 162.5 163.1 160.0-165.9 165.0 164.7
Soybeans 44.7 43.8 43.0-44.9 44.0 44.0
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09/10 End Stks USDA Sep Avg Est Range USDA Aug 08/09
Corn 1.386 1.412 1.350-1.479 1.426 1.673
Soybeans 0.150 0.151 0.125-0.171 0.160 0.138
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10/11 End Stks USDA Sep Avg Est Range USDA Aug
Corn 1.116 1.125 0.929-1.312 1.312
Soybeans 0.350 0.304 0.129-0.373 0.360
Wheat 0.902 0.914 0.830-0.995 0.952
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The USDA's Magic Numbers#1
The USDA peg this year's US soybean and corn crops at record highs, and wheat production up 2 percent from their July forecast and up 2 percent from 2009.
US Ending Stocks (bil bu)
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2009/10 USDA Avg Guess Range USDA Jul
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Soybeans 0.160 0.166 0.153-0.181 0.175
Corn 1.426 1.459 1.390-1.523 1.478
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2010/11
Soybeans 0.360 0.334 0.275-0.404 0.360
Corn 1.312 1.307 0.970-1.535 1.373
Wheat 0.973 0.982 0.800-1.132 1.093
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US 2010/11 Production (bil bu)
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Soybeans 3.433 3.366 3.290-3.432 3.345
Corn 13.365 13.282 13.120-13.524 13.245
Wheat 2.264 2.233 2.206-2.250 2.216
USDA Stocks Numbers
2009/10 (bil bu) USDA Avg Guess Range 08/09
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Soybeans 0.175 0.171 0.138-0.195 0.138
Corn 1.478 1.404 1.214-1.600 1.673
Wheat 0.973 0.968 0.940-0.973 0.657
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2010/11
Soybeans 0.360 0.354 0.250-0.387
Corn 1.373 1.337 0.833-1.734
Wheat 1.093 1.033 0.852-1.104
USDA: Ending Stocks Estimates
Like 'em or loathe 'em, and I think you know which camp I fall into by now, not that I make a habit of falling into camp things you understand, the entire global grain trade will be gathered round in a hushed and revered silence for the latest inane musings of the USDA on Friday.
So once again, just for old time's sake, here's what the trade (and I) think that Washington are going to come up with on Friday:
Ending Stocks (bil bu) Nogger Avg Trade Range June USDA
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Corn 1.250 1.404 1.214-1.600 1.603
Beans 0.150 0.171 0.138-0.195 0.185
Wheat 0.970 0.968 0.940-0.973 0.930
USDA Stocks Estimates
Ending Stocks Estimates for tomorrows USDA Report in billion bushels:
Average Range March 08/09
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Beans 0.209 0.170-0.242 0.190 0.138
Corn 1.911 1.718-2.149 1.799 1.673
Wheat 1.001 0.971-1.100 1.001 0.657
USDA: The Magic Numbers
Here they are folks, the all important scores on the doors from today's USDA reports:
Stocks USDA Avg Guess Range Mar 1 2009
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Beans 1.270 1.207 1.160-1.270 1.302
Corn 7.695 7.505 7.318-7.758 6.954
Wheat 1.352 1.364 1.332-1.398 1.040
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Area (Mln Acres) 2009 Area
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Beans 78.10 78.55 77.43-79.50 77.50
Corn 88.80 88.94 87.00-90.15 86.50
All Wheat 53.83 53.33 51.90-54.90 59.10
Winter Wheat 37.70 37.32 37.10-37.90 43.30
Spring Wheat 13.91 13.56 12.80-14.00 13.30
Durum 2.22 2.47 2.30-2.60 2.60
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USDA 2009/10 Ending Stocks, Early Call
The USDA today pegged the 2009/10 soybean carryout at 255 million bushels, slightly higher than trade expectations of 235 million. They obviously haven't been looking at their own weekly export sales to China recently.
Corn ending stocks were forecast at 1.675 million bushels, against expectations of 1.650 million bu., and wheat carryout pegged at 900 million bu. compared to forecasts of 875 million bu.
So all three came in above trade expectations. That has to be bearish, although the weekly export sales were supportive for beans and corn.
Corn may also garner support from the fact that 12% of the crop is still out there sitting in the snow!
Wheat looks the most bearish of the three, coupled with the poor export sales.
Early calls from the CBOT floor - corn flat to 2 lower, beans 1-2 higher, wheat down 1-2 cents.
I'll take wheat to end much lower than that.
USDA Carryover Summary
Following is a snapshot of U.S. carryover figures from this morning's Supply/Demand report:
USDA Apr Avg Est Range USDA Mar
Corn 1.700 1.731 1.675-1.954 1.740
Soybeans 0.165 0.169 0.101-0.185 0.185
Wheat 0.696 0.697 0.666-0.727 0.712
No big surprises there for once.
USDA Stocks Expectations
The following are pre-report trade expectations for today's USDA 2008-09 carryout:
Avg Est Range USDA Mar
Corn 1.731 1.675-1.954 1.740
Soybeans 0.169 0.101-0.185 0.185
Wheat 0.697 0.666-0.727 0.712
USDA Report Summary
The USDA S&D and stocks data pegged soybean ending stocks lower than anticipated at 185 million bushels, down from 210 million a month ago & trade expectations of around 195/200 million.
Corn ending stocks were also a surprise, being lowered to 1.74 billion bushels, down from 1.79 billion last month, when an increase to 1.8/1.81 billion had been expected.
Wheat stocks were increased from 655 million to 712 million. That seems to have caught most people unawares, as they were expected to be left around unchanged.
As I said yesterday, it doesn't surprise me to see wheat carryout increased, given the relatively slow pace of US exports recently. Thirty nine weeks into the marketing year exports are running around 75% of the USDA's target figure. That is behind "normal" pace of around 80% at this time of year.
On another bearish note for wheat world ending stocks were raised from 149.96mmt to 155.85mmt. Global corn ending stocks were also increased to 144.6mmt from 136.7mmt.
There weren't too many changes to world production numbers. South African corn was upped 1.5mmt to 12mmt, Australian wheat increased from 20.15mmt to 21.5mmt and Argy soybeans decreased from 43.8mmt to 43mmt.
I'd call the numbers bullish soybeans, modestly bullish for corn and bearish wheat.
USDA S&D Report Expectations
The USDA are set to release their latest revised Supply & Demand report at 13.30GMT Wednesday.
The general consensus is that soybean ending stocks are likely to be revised down, corn revised up a tad and wheat left around unchanged.
It wouldn't surprise me however to see wheat carryout increased a little, given the relatively slow pace of US exports recently. Thirty nine weeks into the marketing year exports are running around 75% of the USDA's target figure. That is behind "normal" pace of around 80% at this time of year.
Brazil has begun buying Russian wheat, which had a reputed USD60/tonne price advantage over US wheat, according to media reports from Sao Paulo.
Against a background like that it is difficult to envisage anything other than US export pace slowing rather than gaining ground in the last thirteen weeks of the marketing year.
Corn ending stocks will probably be higher, reflecting slumping demand from the ethanol sector in the face of burgeoning crude oil inventories.
Bean carryout is expected lower due to largely better than anticipated exports.
Trade expectations:
Corn ending stocks are guessed at 1.8 billion bushels on average, up slightly from 1.79 billion last month in a range of 1.71-1.84 billion.
Soybeans are seen at 195 million bushels, down from 210 million last month and a range of 123-220 million.
Wheat stocks are forecast at 656 million, vs 655 million a month ago and in a range of 625-680 million.
USDA Carryout Summary
Todays US 2008/09 closing stocks data from the USDA:
USDA Feb Avg Guess USDA Jan
Corn 1.790 1.838 1.790
Soybeans 0.210 0.203 0.225
Wheat 0.655 0.649 0.655
The only significant difference to what was expected there is that they left corn ending stocks unchanged from last month, whereas a sizable increase was anticipated.
USDA US Carryover Summary/Revised Call
For a report that wasn't expected to throw up much in the way of surprises the USDA did their best with corn. Carryover stocks for corn, beans and wheat were all higher than anticipated. In the case of corn MUCH higher.
2008/09 Soybean ending stocks had been expected to be trimmed from last month's 205m bu to 200m, in fact the USDA left them unchanged.
2008/09 Wheat ending stocks were expected to come in at 596m bu, down slightly from 603m last month, in fact the USDA raised them to 623m bu.
2008/09 Corn ending stocks were expected to increase due to slower exports and waning ethanol demand. Stocks were called up from 1.124 billion bu last month to 1.232 billion this month, in fact the USDA raised them to a whopping 1.474 billion.
The soy figure was there or thereabouts, wheat a bit on the high side, but corn was much worse than feared.
Revised calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn Down 15-20c; Wheat Down 5-10c; Soy Unch.
USDA Report: Analysts See Smaller Soybean And Wheat Stocks
Ahead of this afternoon's United States Department of Agriculture's supply and demand update, analysts expect bigger corn stocks and smaller soybean and wheat stocks.
The average of analysts' estimates for 2008/09 corn ending stocks is 1.232 billion bushels, which would be up around 100 million from November on this year's harvest and a decline in export demand. The range of estimates runs from a low of 1.124 billion bushels, which would be unchanged from November, to a high of 1.400 billion bushels. 2007/08 ending stocks were 1.624 billion bushels.
Soybeans are pegged at 200 million bushels, down modestly from the 205 million bushels in November, with good export demand offsetting a decline in crush rates. Expectations range from 161 million to 215 million bushels. For 2007/08, soybean ending stocks were 205 million bushels.
Wheat stocks are expected to be around 596 million bushels, compared to November's guess of 603 million, on fairly routine demand. Analysts' estimates range from 575 million to 606 million bushels. 2007/08 wheat ending stocks totaled 306 million bushels.
USDA S&D Report Expectations
Tomorrow sees the release of the USDA's latest S&D report due for publication at 13.30GMT. Here's a note of what the trade is expecting:
2008-09 Carryover Avg Range USDA Nov 2007/08
Corn 1.232 1.124-1.400 1.124 1.624
Soybeans 0.200 0.161-0.215 0.205 0.205
Wheat 0.596 0.575-0.606 0.603 0.306
USDA US Carryover Snapshot
2008/09 USDA Aug Avg Trade Est USDA Jul
Corn 1.133 1.004 0.833
Soybeans 0.135 0.141 0.140
Wheat 0.574 0.528 0.537
2007/08
Corn 1.576 1.598 1.598
Soybeans 0.135 0.131 0.125
USDA Carryover 2008/09
The USDA today pegged 2008/09 soybean carryover at 140m bushels, fractionally higher than the 0.139m anticipated.
Corn carryout was 833m bushels, higher than the 820m expected by the trade.
Wheat carryout was seen at 537m bushels, in line with expectations of 538m.
USDA Carryover 2007/08
Today's USDA report pegged 2007/08 soybean carryover unchanged from last month's 125m bushels, a little higher than the anticipated 123m bushels.
Corn carryout was pegged at 1.598 billion bushels, higher than the 1.514 billion the trade expected.
Wheat carryout was 306 million bushels exactly in line with expectations.
USDA US 2008-09 carryover snapshot
The USDA today estimated 2008-09 US carryover stocks as:
Wheat 487m bu., vs avg est of 496m and it's May est of 483m
Corn 673m bu., (736m, 763m)
Soybeans 175m bu., (180m, 185m)
