Chicago Grains Move Higher On Excessive Rains
17/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with double digit gains, building on yesterday's advances. Everyone is now looking at the US weather, and pondering how much rain is too much. Reuters reported that flooding had halted barge traffic on the Illinois River today. "CME, which owns the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and other markets, said a majority of shipping stations on the river were unable to load crops due to high water levels," the report said. The trade is now wondering whether or not US growers will get all their intended soybean acres in this year. As Benson Quinn point out "the June 30th (acreage) report will offer as many questions as answers". This is supposed to inform us what the final area will be for soybeans and corn, but as of Sunday night there was still around 11 million acres of soybeans unplanted. The figures in the report are based on a survey conducted Jun 1-10, and as we now know things have got worse since then. The trade will also be mulling over what sort of yield will beans planted in mud and then sitting in water will produce. Keep in mind that fund money is sitting on a net soybean short of around 100k contracts. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 250,000-500,000 MT for beans for both crop years combined. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.69, up 11 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.39 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $323.70, up $2.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.85, down 5 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents higher as the corn belt continues to take a battering from the weather. "Reports of ponding and yellow corn have made it to the top of the headlines as central MO, southern IL, and southern IN have received upwards of 2 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Forecasts continue to lean wet in those areas with the five day accumulation estimates near 5 inches," said Benson Quinn. Fund money has reduced the magnitude of it's short position in corn significantly, but it still holds a sizable one nevertheless. The USDA reported 100,000 MT of old crop corn delivery to unknown destinations for the 2014/15 marketing year. The US Energy Dept reported ethanol production at 980,000 barrels/day, down from last week's record 992,000 bpd. Livestock numbers in the US are falling. One report in the media says that bird flu could cause the loss of 47 million chickens and turkeys in the US before the problem is eradicated. Additionally, a Bloomberg survey predicted that "US feedlots probably purchased or placed into their herds 8 percent fewer cattle last month than a year earlier". Ukraine said that it had exported 18.1 MMT of corn so far this season. Ukraine's Jun 1 corn stocks were said to be 4.8 MMT. Germany's DRV cut their forecast for this year's corn crop there to under 4.7 MMT, a 9% reduction on a year ago, due to dryness issues. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 200,000 MT of old crop and 300,000 MT on the new crop. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.59 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.75, up 5 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, garnering some limited support from higher corn and soybeans. Taiwan was a buyer of US wheat overnight, but they are regarded as a stonewall US customer. Non-traditional US wheat buyers are still spoilt for choice when it comes to international suppliers fighting for their business. The weaker US dollar today may have added a bit of support, after the Fed indicated that it has not seen the economic conditions needed to raise interest rates for the time being. The vast majority of analysts had been forecasting a US rate rise in September. Ukraine said that it is on target to export a record volume of grain this season, having shipped out 33.5 MMT so far, including 10.7 MMT of wheat. Russia's exports are also increasing again now that the old export duty has been abolished, and before the new one kicks in on Jul 1. As prices currently stand, the new tax will only be minimal after Jul 1. IKAR estimated this year's Russian grain crop at 96-103 MMT, with wheat accounting for 55-59 MMT of that. The combines are now said to be rolling in southern Russia, harvesting winter barley. The Russian Ministry say that the spring planting campaign is now complete on 31.1 million ha. That includes 13.4 million ha of spring wheat and 8.3 million ha of spring barley. Germany's DRV cut the size of this year's wheat crop there to 25.8 MMT, down 4.2% from a month ago and 7.2% below production last year due to persistent dryness. Northern France has been experiencing similar conditions. FranceAgriMer has been paring back on crop conditions there in the past couple of weeks. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are around 250-400,000 MT. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.91 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.05 1/2, down 1 cent; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.47 3/4, up 1/4 cent.
French Grains Rise Aided By Weak Euro
17/06/15 -- EU grains closed mixed. London wheat was lower, but the Paris market closed higher helped by the weak euro following a Greek Central Bank statement that the country could be in for a "painful" eurozone exit.
Jul 15 London wheat ended GBP2.25/tonne lower at GBP113.00/tonne, Sep 15 Paris was up EUR1.75/tonne at EUR178.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR163.00/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR4.00/tonne to close at EUR375.00/tonne.
Germany's DRV cut their forecasts for the country's grain and rapeseed production this year due to persistent dryness. They now predict only an "average" cereal harvest of just over 47.7 MMT.
"This value is about 2 MMT below the forecast of the previous month and more than 8 percent below the record result in 2014 of 52 MMT. The reason for this adjustment is that in many parts of Germany continued dry, warm weather. In many regions, too little precipitation has fallen," they said.
A 4.6% reduction from their previous estimate added to the friendly tone for price prospects rapeseed. They now see this year's output 20% down on last year at just under 5 MMT.
They trimmed 4.2% off their previous estimate for German wheat production too, now pegging that at 25.78 MMT, down 2 MMT (or -7.2%) on a year ago.
Germany's winter barley crop was estimated at 8.6 MMT versus 9 MMT previously and down 9.5% on a year ago. Spring barley production is now seen 5.3% lower than a year ago at 1.96 MMT. Corn production is seen 9.1% lower at 4.67 MMT.
Ukraine said that it is on target to export a record volume of grain in 2014/15, with a total of 33.5 MMT shipped out so far. That includes 10.7 MMT of wheat, 4.5 MMT of barley and 18.1 MMT of corn.
Despite record shipments, the Ukraine State Stats Service said that domestic grain stocks as of Jun 1 were 49% higher than a year ago at around 10 MMT, including 4 MMT of wheat, 0.8 MMT of barley and 4.8 MMT of corn.
Russia's intervention fund picked up 7,425 MT of grain in today's latest purchasing round. They've now bought 1.1 MMT since buying began on Sep 30. The average price being paid for the best so called "grade 3" wheat being RUB9,964, the equivalent of around $184/tonne at today's exchange rate.
Winter barley harvesting is now said to be underway in the Stavropol region of southern Russia.
Bloomberg report that Chinese government inspectors have been touring UK farms and storage facilities with a view to adding Britain to the list of approved barley suppliers. Currently China will only accept barley from Denmark, France, Argentina, Australia, Canada and Ukraine, they say. France has been a big supplier of barley to the Far Eastern powerhouse this season.
There are reports of dryness continuing to build across the North China Plain, which may be linked to the developing El Nino event, and merits watching.
The region is a significant wheat and corn producing area. Although the winter wheat harvest there should pretty much be over by now, they won't start harvesting corn until September.
Chicago Beans Rally As Bill Moves Into Town
16/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans posted strong gains. "What had started as 'turn-around Tuesday' firmer trade in the overnight session turned into a full blown rally by the end of the day," said Benson Quinn. There's a bit of a felling that the current unusually wet weather in the US might be a case of "too much of a good thing" for beans more than corn. Last night's USDA crop progress report said that 13% of this year's crop has still to be planted in the US. That's 11 million acres using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate of 84.635 million acres. It's even higher based on Informa's 87.2 million forecast. Kansas and Missouri are the furthest behind and the forecast there is very wet for the next 5 days as Tropical Storm Bill hits the region. A significant proportion of the unplanted area in these two states will be second crop beans following on from winter wheat. The Kansas winter wheat harvest is only 2% harvested versus 18% on average and Missouri is 4% harvested versus 22% on average as rain lashes the region. In other news, the Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 45% of their 2014/15 soybean crop sold versus 38.5% a year ago. Oil World forecast a 2015/16 world soybean crop of 315.8 MMT versus this season's record 320.6 MMT crop. Brazil's output was seen at a new record 95.3 MMT. They cut their outlook on the world rapeseed crop this year to 66 MMT, down 1.2 MMT from previously, 3.2 MMT below last year and 2.5 MMT less than the current USDA forecast. Egypt said that it had bought 45,000 MT of soybean oil and 25,000T of sunflower oil in a tender. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.57 1/2, up 19 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.27 1/2, up 23 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $320.80, up $7.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.90, up 21 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 6-7 cents higher, reversing yesterday's losses in "turnaround Tuesday" style. " Continued moisture is starting to be destructive as reports out the central plains and Corn Belt indicate yellow corn due to heavy moisture and lack of nitrogen," said Benson Quinn. Tropical Storm Bill is just off the cost of Texas, and is forecast reaching into Missouri, Illinois and parts of Indiana by the end of the week, bringing more heavy rains to the region. Crop ratings are holding up, for now. Next week's crop ratings will make interesting reading though. As mentioned above, the current feeling is that these rains are more of an issue for soybeans than they are a "deal breaker" for corn at the moment, although that sentiment could change. Fund money is short corn, but nowhere near as much as it was, so they appear reasonably comfortable with that position at the moment. They were estimated as being net buyers of around 7,000 contracts on the day today. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 52% of their 2014/15 corn crop sold versus 42% a year ago. FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French corn exports this season from 7.09 MMT to 7.54 MMT. Rusagrotrans forecast a Russian corn crop of 11.8 MMT this year, up 4.4% from a year ago and a record level. Other estimates are even higher in the 12.0-12.5 MMT region. The crop is 97% sown on 2.7 million hectares, said the Russian Ag Ministry. China's CNGOIC said that the country will import more than 9 MMT of sorghum this season, of which 7.8 MMT is already on contract with the US, they say. Their foreign corn purchases are running at low levels, and very little of what they are buying is coming from the US. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.54, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.70, up 6 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with little change. Tropical Storm Bill is seen bringing more unwanted heavy rains to US winter wheat areas on the Plains this week. Harvesting in Texas is in line with normal, but just about everywhere else is well behind. The top producing state of Kansas being only 2% done versus 18% for the 5-year average, Oklahoma is 38% complete versus 57% normally and Illinois is 1% harvested compared to 15% on average. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 80% of their 2014/15 wheat crop sold versus 57% a year ago. The ever optimistic Ministry also said that winter wheat planting, which is now underway in Argentina, will get sown on an area similar to last year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and their fellows at the Rosario Exchange see things quite differently, and are forecasting a significant drop in area this year, with the latter particularly bearish - seeing plantings down 20%. FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French soft wheat and barley exports this season, consequently lowering their estimates for ending stocks of both. Very strong barley sales to China should continue into at least the first part of 2015/16, they told Bloomberg. Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of feed barley, which will probably end up coming from France. Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's wheat exports at 22.3 MMT this season. The figure includes sales to Kazakhstan which aren't included in official government numbers due to the existence of a preferential trade agreement between the two countries. Russian grain production in 2015 was increased to 99-100 MMT, That includes a wheat crop estimated at 57.3 MMT. IKAR fine-tuned their forecast in Russian wheat this year to 55-59 MMT. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.06 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.47 1/2, up 2 cents.
EU Grains Mixed, French Export Estimates Raised
16/06/15 -- EU grains closed mixed. London wheat was mostly a little lower as the pound firmed against both the US dollar and euro today. In Paris, wheat and corn were a touch higher and rapeseed was flat despite the outlook for lower production this year.
At the close Jul 15 London wheat was down GBP0.05/tonne at GBP115.25/tonne, Sep 15 Paris was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR176.75/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.00/tonne at EUR162.50/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed was unchanged at EUR371.00/tonne.
FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French soft wheat exports this season from 18.26 MMT to 18.92 MMT, including an increase in exports to non-EU destinations from 10.6 MMT to 11.1 MMT.
These increased sales trim French soft wheat ending stocks from the 3.59 MMT forecast a month ago to 2.98 MMT.
They also raised their estimates for French corn and barley exports this season, The former are now seen at 7.54 MMT (from 7.09 MMT previously), and the latter were upped to 6.67 MMT from 6.32 MMT. That means that ending stocks for both were trimmed, with corn carryout now seen at 3.36 MMT (from 3.8 MMT previously) and barley inventories at 962 TMT from 1.29 MMT last month.
French barley exports this season have been boosted by strong interest from China, and this is seen continuing into at least the early part of 2015/16, they said.
Oil World cut 1.2 MMT off their previous forecast for the global rapeseed crop in 2015, now pegging that at 66 MMT. That's now 2.5 MMT below the current USDA estimate and 3.2 MMT down on last year.
The reason for the cut was dryness in parts of Europe, Australia and Canada, as well as frost damage in Canada around a month ago.
Last week ABARES pegged Australian canola plantings at 2.35 million ha, down 400k ha, or 14%, on a year ago. Yesterday they estimated Australia's 2015/16 canola exports at 2.18 MMT, down 11.3% from a year ago and the lowest since 2010/11.
A Thompson Reuters crop tour of France recently concluded that rapeseed yields there could be down 10-15% in the normally most productive Centre region due to spring dryness, and said that any rain relief now might still help wheat yields but would probably do little for rapeseed.
That tour has now moved on to the Poitou-Charentes area, in the centre west of France, which they say is responsible for around 7% of French wheat production, 5% of the French rapeseed crop, and 9% of French corn.
They said that no lower than 11.5% protein wheat is expected in this area this year, and that whilst the recent warm and dry weather may have had an adverse impact on grain fill, it should actually have helped protein levels.
Around 85% of the wheat crop in the area should be cut by 25 July, they said. Corn in the region is currently looking good, but with about 50% of the crop non-irrigated summer rainfall is a key determining factor in final yields, they noted.
Rusagrotrans said that Russia's total grain exports this season, including those to Kazakhstan which aren't included in official government data, could reach a record 31.9 MMT. Exports in the coming season could be similar at around 30-32 MMT, they added.
Russia's June grain exports were estimated at 1.6 MMT, including 1.1 MMT of wheat, they said.
They also raised their forecast for the 2015/16 Russian grain crop from 97-98 MMT to 99-100 MMT. That includes 57.3 MMT of wheat, a 4.1% drop on last year, along with 17.1 MMT of barley (down 16.1%) and 11.8 MMT of corn (up 4.4%).
Rapeseed Shortage Looming In 2015/16?
Last week they pegged the planted area for the new season at 2.35 million ha, down 400k ha, or 14%, on a year ago.
Meanwhile: "World rapeseed, including canola, stocks are forecast to decline by 19% in 2015/16 to 6 MMT, largely reflecting an expected run-down in stocks in the European Union and Canada in response to expected falls in domestic production," they say.
Production in the EU this year is forecast to be somewhere around the 21-22 MMT region, depending on who's estimate you decide to run with. The USDA see plantings down 3% and yields falling 6% this year. Domestic consumption meanwhile is estimated at around 25 MMT.
A Thompson Reuters crop tour of France last week visited the Centre Region, the largest rapeseed growing region in the country, said that "rapeseed yields are fairly final, meaning that forward weather will not really matter".
They found yield potential 10-15% lower than last year due to spring dryness, and noted that those conditions meant that flowering in the region only lasted for about 3 weeks this year, compared to up to six weeks normally.
Production potential in Canada this year is also seen lower, with some spring crops damaged by frost needing replanting, and dryness on the Prairies there also an issue. The USDA currently has plantings down 4.7%, and Stats Canada will update us on that at the end of the month.
Chicago Grains End Mostly Lower
15/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed mixed, with the nears losing ground to the deferred positions for a change. AgRural estimated the Brazilian soybean area for the 2015/16 crop, planting of which mostly tales place in October/November, could rise 2.3% to 32.6 million acres. That could give them a potential output pushing the 100 MMT mark. The May NOPA crush came in at a record large for the month at 148.4 million bushels. Trade estimates for that ranged from 143.5 million to 150.7 million bushels, with an average guess of 147.3 million. The crush over the remaining three months of the season now only needs to average 131.1 million bushels to reach the USDA forecast for the season, said Benson Quinn. Weekly export inspections were also friendly at 226,614 MT. The USDA reported US soybean planting at 87% complete, up from 79% a week ago, but now 3 points behind the 5-year average. That means that there's 11 million acres still left to sow, using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate. Kansas (57% complete versus 85% typically) and Missouri (42% done versus 79%) are the principal laggards. Soybean emergence was placed at 75% nationally, up from 64% a week ago, but 2 points behind the norm. Crop conditions in the good to excellent category were down 2 points from last week at 67% versus 73% a year ago. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.37 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/4, unchanged; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $313.20, down $4.20; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.69, down 45 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. A stronger dollar didn't help, although weekly export inspections beat market ideas, coming in at 1.1 MMT. The USDA also reported 120 TMT of old crop corn sold to Japan under the daily reporting system. Reports of China cancelling DDGs purchases isn't too friendly though. "This morning reports indicated that Chinese officials would double the subsidies to end users of reserve (state-owned) corn from 200 yaun to 400 yaun or $32.50/ MT to $65/MT. Moreover, rumours are the Chinese could cancel up to 6 cargoes of DDG’s as well," said Benson Quinn. There's been the suggestion around for a while that the Chinese government are looking for ways to shift some of their huge domestic corn reserves, which some are forecasting could exceed 100 MMT this year. The USDA reported corn crop conditions at 73% good to excellent, down one point from a week ago. Emergence is at 97% versus 91% a week ago and 95% for the 5-year average. Agritel raised their forecast for the Russian 2015 corn crop from 11.7 MMT to a record 12.1 MMT. Other analysts are in much the same 12.0-12.5 MMT ballpark now. They predict exports in 2015/16 at 2.8 MMT. Russia said that it had exported 2.86 MMT of corn so far this season. Ukraine said that it had exported 17.78 MMT of corn in 2014/15, with more than 84% of the grain cargoes handled by Ukraine seaports last week being corn. Agritel estimated Ukraine's corn crop at 26 MMT this year, with 2015/16 exports at 16 MMT. Continued wetness in the US corn belt isn't being seen as a threat to corn, at least not yet it isn't. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.48 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.63 1/2, down 6 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with double digit losses on all three exchanges. Weekly export inspections were in line with expectations at 377,847 MT. Last week's Egyptian tenders highlighted once again that US wheat is largely too dear to attract a lot of attention internationally, apart from buying from the usual suspects. Russian origin material was said to be the cheapest offer on the table in an Iraq tender for hard wheat, quoted at $231 C&F. The best priced Australian offer was said to be $267.50, with Canadian material lining up at $266 and US product at $285.42 being well priced out. Russia said that it had exported 20.87 MMT of wheat so far this season, a 15% increase on a year ago. APK Inform said that more than 75% of all the grain cargoes handled by Russian seaports last week were wheat. Ukraine said that they'd shipped out 10.63 MMT of wheat so far this season. Agritel raised their estimate for the 2015 Russian wheat crop from 54 MMT to 55.5 MMT. They also increased Russia's 2015/16 wheat export potential from 20.8 MMT to 21.1 MMT. French winter wheat crop conditions fell 2 points in the good to very good category, but are still a lot better than they were a year ago. ABARES cut their forecast for Australia's 2015/16 wheat exports by 1.5 MMT to 16.5 MMT, citing tough competition from other sellers. The USDA said that the US winter wheat crop is 11% harvested, up from 4% done a week ago but down from 20% complete for the 5-year average. Good to excellent ratings were unchanged at 43%. Spring wheat was rated 70% good to excellent versus 69% a week ago and 72% this time last year. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.89 1/4, down 14 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.08 3/4, down 17 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.45 1/2, down 15 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Fall, French Barley Harvest Now Underway
15/06/15 -- EU grains closed almost entirely in the red to start the week. The euro was little changed, despite the news that talks between Greece and EU officials had broken down over the weekend.
At the finish Jul 15 London wheat ended GBP1.20/tonne lower at GBP115.3.20/tonne, Sep 15 Paris was EUR4.00/tonne weaker at EUR176.25/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was down EUR1.75/tonne at EUR161.50/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed fell EUR1.50/tonne to close at EUR371.00/tonne.
There wasn't a great deal of fresh news around to start the week. As the combines get ready to start rolling (they've already started in France), we are maybe now starting to see some pre-harvest pressure developing, especially considering the large volume of old crop stocks still being carried in the market and in the face of slack demand.
Ensus remains shut, and is likely to stay that way for "up to a year or more" according to a report on Reuters. That report also said that the company was in consultations with staff about possible job cuts at the plant.
Another bearish factor is the emerging news that crops in Russia, and particularly Ukraine, appear to be heading towards harvest in much better condition than had been expected earlier in the year.
Agritel became the latest analyst to up their forecast for Russia's 2015 wheat crop, increasing their estimate from 54 MMT to 55.5 MMT. They also raised their 2015/16 Russian wheat export forecast from 20.8 MMT to 21.1 MMT. They left their barley production estimate unchanged at 16.4 MMT, with exports in the coming season seen at 2.8 MMT. Corn production potential was raised from 11.7 MMT to a record 12.1 MMT.
In Ukraine, they forecast a wheat crop of 21.6 MMT this year, unchanged from previously, although they raised 2015/16 wheat exports from 9.7 MMT to 10.1 MMT. Ukraine's barley crop was increased from 6.7 MMT to 6.9 MMT, with exports seen at 2.4 MMT. Corn production was estimated at 26 MMT, with exports of 16 MMT.
APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports had exported 402.5 TMT of grains last week, down from 525.1 TMT the previous week. Corn accounted for over 84% of that total, and wheat the remainder.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country had now exported more than 33 MMT of grains this season, including 17.78 MMT of corn, 10.63 MMT of wheat and 4.46 MMT of barley.
The Ukraine State Stats Service said that winter losses in grains were only 2.5% this year versus 3.6% a year previously.
Russian-based agronomist Mike Lee is currently conducting a crop tour of southern Russia and Ukraine, and is reporting on some decent looking crops - particularly in Ukraine.
APK Inform said that Russia's grain exports via seaports last week totalled 280.5 MMT, up from 258.4 TMT the previous week, of which over 75% was wheat and the remainder corn.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country's grain exports to Jun 10 were 29.42 MMT, up 17.8% on a year ago. Wheat exports were 20.87 MMT (versus 18.15 MMT this time last year), barley exports stand at 5.22 MMT (2.54 MMT) and those for corn are 2.86 MMT (3.97 MMT).
The release if the regular weekly French crop condition report from FranceAgriMer was delayed from Friday until today due to "technical issues".
Today that said that the proportion of French wheat rated good to very good was down 2 points on a week previously at 87%, although that's still much better than 73% this time last year. French winter barley ratings were also trimmed 2 points to 86% good to very good (versus 71% a year ago). The proportion of spring barley in the top two categories was cut from 91% to 86%, and corn was reduced from 86% to 84%.
The report also said that the French winter barley harvest had just about begun as of last Monday, with 1% of the crop harvested in the Midi-Pyrenees region in the south of the country.
Egypt said that following a strong domestic wheat purchasing campaign, and including recent international buying, they now have enough wheat bought to last them through to the end of 2015.
Tunisia tendered for 59 TMT of durum wheat, 84 TMT of soft wheat and 75 TMT of feed barley, all of optional origin for Jul/Sep shipment. Syria tendered for 150 TMT of milling wheat. Russian wheat was said to be the cheapest offer in an Iraqi tender for hard wheat.
Chicago Market Closing Comments - Friday Night
12/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed little changed on the day and for the week. The trade will be pondering how soybean plantings have gone this week. The USDA will tell us on Monday. There was still 21% of the crop left to plant as of last Sunday night. Missouri was only 30% done versus 69% normally, and Kansas was 31% sown compared to 76% on average. Also due on Monday is the NOPA crush report for May, with a possible record large crush for the month of 147.3 million bushels expected. Trade estimates range from 143.5 million to 150.7 million bushels. Informa's acreage numbers, which were due today, have apparently been delayed until early next week. Their previous soybean area estimate was 87.185 million acres compared with the USDA's March planting intentions of 84.635 million. The latter number means that there were over 17.75 million acres of soybeans left unplanted as of last Sunday night. If Informa are right it's 18.3 million acres. The latest commitment of traders report shows that managed money reduced their net short position in beans by almost 12k contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.40, unchanged; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $317.40, up $4.00; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.14, down 15 points. For the week, front month beans were 2 1/2 cents higher, meal gained $12.50 and oil shed 164 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-5 cents lower on the day and 7-8 cents easier for the week. There's another very wet forecast for the week ahead for the the southern Great Plains and Midwest. For the time being the trade is reading that as being bearish for corn using the old "rain makes grain" adage. This is seen as being typical of the emerging El Nino. There's now an 85 percent chance El Nino will persist into January and beyond, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre. In addition to that "much of today’s weakness stemmed from the global front with China indicating they are a preparing to lower their subsidies on domestically raised corn while delaying or cancelling US DDG cargo’s. Rumours of cancellation has put cash values of DDG’s on the defence with prices shedding $15/tonne over the week," noted Benson Quinn. Agritel raised their forecast for the 2015 Russian corn crop from 11.7 MMT to a record 12.1 MMT. Planting of that is 96.4% complete, according to the Russian Ag Ministry. Estimates for Brazil's safrinha corn crop are increasing due to good rains. The latest commitment of traders report sows fund money reducing their net short position in corn by 44,268 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.53, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.69 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents. For the week, corn was down 7 1/2 cents on the front month.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed on the day, but lower for the week. The heavy rain forecast for the Plains is seen as further hampering early harvesting attempts, and possibly causing some quality issues as well as perhaps yield losses. "The rainfall forecast continues very wet in the upcoming week. Heaviest rain is predicted in the southern Great Plains, 4-7 inches in west Texas and Oklahoma," said Martell Crop Projections. Plains Grains estimate that the Texas wheat crop is 23% harvested, Oklahoma is 17% harvested, and the Kansas wheat crop is 1% cut. The USDA will update us with their figures on Monday. Egypt's GASC were back in the market, booking two cargoes of Romanian and one of Russian wheat today. The fact that this business is being done at huge discounts to US offers remains a bearish consideration for US wheat. Tunisia is tendering for 84,000 MT of soft wheat, 59,000 MT of durum wheat, and 75,000 MT of of feed barley, all of optional origins for Jul-Sep shipment. Tonight's commitment of traders report shows fund money cutting their Chicago wheat short by more than half for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.03 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.26, up 2 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.61 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 13 1/4 cents lower, with the Kansas market down 9 1/4 cents and Minneapolis 10 1/4 cents weaker.
