EU Grains Mostly Lower Around Noon, Early French Barley Harvest Reporting Some Good Results
25/06/15 -- EU grains trade mostly lower. The euro is a touch weaker, with the clock ticking on a last minute deal for Greece ahead of Tuesday's $1.6 billion debt repayment due to the IMF.
At noon, Nov 15 London wheat is GBP1.20/tonne lower at GBP123.85/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was is down EUR1.75tonne at EUR182.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn is down EUR1.00/tonne at EUR166.00/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed is unchanged at yesterday's 14-month closing high of EUR383.50/tonne.
Agritel report that the early barley harvest in France is showing some good results in terms of both yield and quality. They do however note that, as you might expect, crop maturity was a bit further down the line for winter barley before the recent dryness and heat issues hit hardest. It may not therefore be safe to conclude that wheat will fare similarly when that harvest begins.
Talking of which, Commodity Weather Group say that July is set to begin warmer than normal across much of the continent, especially so in France and Spain where temperatures could be 3-7C above normal for the time of year.
That could add to stress in winter wheat. These warmer than normal conditions could also prevail into August, they add.
The GFS model would appear to concur with this view. That is giving 2-8C above normal temperatures for Spain, France, Germany, Poland, northern Italy and the UK in the Jul 2-10 period. It is also predicting below normal rainfall for just about everywhere with the exception of northern England and Scotland, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria.
The early 2015 harvest in Ukraine has been completed on around 20,000 ha of the 7.62 million ha of winter grains (barley), according to the Ag Ministry there. Ukraine growers are also said to have planted 803,000 ha of winter rapeseed, harvesting of which should also get underway shortly.
The National Bank of Australia said that the developing El Nino weather event could cut wheat production there to 20 MMT or less, according to a report on Bloomberg. That would be the smallest Australian wheat crop in 8 years.
It would also be far less than the 23.6 MMT currently predicted by ABARES and the USDA's recent 26 MMT estimate.
The IGC were even higher last month at 27 MMT. They are due to release their latest June estimates later today.
MDA CropCast today estimated the Australian 2015/16 wheat crop at 23.1 MMT. They also trimmed their outlook on Europe a little to 142.1 MMT, down 5% on a year ago. Other than that they made no changes to their world wheat production forecasts.
They knocked 2.8 MMT off their global corn crop estimate, with 1.5 MMT of that coming from Ukraine, where production is now seen at 24.7 MMT versus 28.4 MMT a year ago. They also pared back their view on US corn production by 1.3 MMT due to recent wetness.
Commerzbank said that they expect the pound to slowly appreciate in value against the euro, getting to 1.42 in the first half of next year, and hitting 1.45 in the second half of 2016. Essentially saying that they aren't exactly bullish on sterling, but they are less bearish on the pound than they are on the single currency. They don't see UK interest rates starting to rise until Q1 of next year.
Barclays see things happening along the same lines, but in a much quicker time frame. They predict the pound getting to 1.45 by the end of this year, and moving on to 1.47 in Q1 of 2016.
Chicago Ends Lower, Positioning Ahead Of Tuesday's USDA Report Seen Largely Done
24/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4-5 cents easier. It seems that the trade has positioned itself where it wants to be heading into next week's USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report due on Tuesday. "Regardless of concerns about pending production, it appears the funds have pared their positions to manageable levels and the trade may need a new supportive story to sustain this move into the report," said Benson Quinn. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. Allendale said 85.105 million yesterday and Informa were at 86.76 million last week. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. Oil World cut their forecast for the EU rapeseed crop by 200 TMT to 21.8 MMT, a 10.5% decline on a year ago, saying that rapeseed prices would command a "sizeable" premium to soybeans throughout the 2015/16 season. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the range of 350,000-800,000 MT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.81 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.56, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $328.00, down $3.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.27, up 45 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 994,000 barrels/day versus 980,000 bpd the previous week. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. Informa were out last week with an estimate of 89.199 million acres and Allendale gave us the highest trade guess of 91.742 million yesterday. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Dr Cordonnier said that the Brazilian safrinha corn crop is expected to produce record yields due to "excellent" weather conditions. Brazilian analyst Agroconsult estimate second crop corn production at 52.5 MMT, and maybe more, he said. That takes the total crop up to at least 83 MMT versus a USDA estimate of only 75 MMT. Agroconsult see Brazilian corn exports at a record 27.1 MMT, up by almost a third on 20.6 MMT a year previously and well above the USDA's forecast of 24 MMT. Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's 2015/16 corn exports at 3 MMT. CNGOIC said that China's 2014/15 corn imports may total 4 MMT, despite government attempts to discourage foreign buying and persuade local traders to buy some of their own huge state-owned stockpiles. Ukraine could supply up to half of that volume it is thought. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the range of 650,000 MT to 800,000 MT. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80 1/2, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market gave up some of the gains achieved over the past couple of sessions. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. Japan is in the market for 114,500 MT of wheat of mixed origin in it's usual weekly tender. South Korea are tendering for 50,000 MT of Australian wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Russia bought 29,295 MT of wheat at today's intervention purchase round, taking the total bought so far to 1.164 MMT. Dryness in parts of Europe and Canada remain a concern. In Canada, prairie spring wheat prospects have been dimmed by drought, probably because of a strong El Nino, said Martell Crop Projections. "Out of seven El Nino’s in the past, dating back to 1980, just one resulted in a favourable wheat yield – the 1982 spring wheat harvest. A second was mediocre, the 1991 wheat yield just slightly below trend. Very poor wheat yields occurred in 5 of the other 7 El Nino years," they noted. "Growing season rainfall has been deficient in Saskatchewan and Alberta, the leading 2 wheat provinces, where just 40-60% of normal rainfall has developed in the past 2 months. Manitoba wheat has fared better, the smallest of the 3 prairie provinces, with heavier rainfall in the past several weeks. Unfavorable dry conditions have developed in western Manitoba, bordering Saskatchewan however," they said. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are a modest 200-400,000 MT. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.24 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.63 3/4, down 6 cents.
EU Grains End Mostly Higher, With Rapeseed At 14-Month Highs
24/06/15 -- EU grains closed the day mostly higher, with Jul 15 London wheat up GBP0.65/tonne at GBP110.65/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR184.25/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR2.75/tonne at EUR167.00/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne higher at EUR383.50/tonne.
For rapeseed this was the highest close on a front month since April 2014.
Oil World have trimmed back their estimate for the EU rapeseed crop by 200,000 MT to 21.8 MMT, down 10.5% on last year's production of 24.36 MMT.
They see plantings for the 2015 harvest down 3%, with yields dropping 8% to 3.33 MT/ha. The latter figure is still above the 3.28 MT/ha average suggested by the EU Commission's MARS unit on Monday. The MARS estimate would potentially cut production to below 21.5 MMT this year.
Oil World now see the German rapeseed crop down 16.8% on a year ago to 5.1 MMT, a fall of more than 1 MMT compared to last year's record.
Production in France is estimated 5.8% lower at 5.2 MMT, and Poland's crop will decline 8.2% to 2.9 MMT, they predict.
They forecast the UK rapeseed crop to fall 7.8% this year to 2.27 MMT versus their figure of 2.46 MMT for output in 2014.
There's some debate in the trade at home whether the old crop tightness seen at the end of the current season is possibly due to 2014 rapeseed production having been overestimated. With more than a GBP30/tonne premium on offer for old crop supplies over new crop, and few if any takers, that would suggest that the old crop supplies aren't really there in any volume.
Thus it would seem that UK carryover stocks into the new season will only be minimal.
The reduction in EU production this year, in contrast to good availability of soybeans, with see rapeseed command a "sizeable" premium over soybeans throughout the 2015/16 season, say Oil World.
Ukraine said that they'd now exported 33.9 MMT of grains this season, including 18.4 MMT of corn, 10.8 MMT of wheat and 4.5 MMT of barley.
Rusagrotrans said that Russia's grain exports in July would double those of June at 2.8 MMT, rising to 3.8 MMT in August as new crop material comes onto the market.
Those numbers are still some way below exports in the same period in 2014 (July 3.12 MMT and August a record 4.64 MMT) due to the fact that exporters were slow to commit to making new crop sales this year due to the on/off imposition of export duties and rouble volatility, they said.
They estimated Russia's 2015/16 full season grain exports at 31.7 MMT, including 22.1 MMT of wheat, 5.2 MMT of barley and 3.0 MMT of corn. These numbers include shipments to Kazakhstan which aren't included in official government data.
The market doesn't yet seem to be factoring in that large scale US wheat quality downgrades this year probably mean more feed grade material coming onto the market, judging by the fact that US corn prices followed wheat higher last night.
The large premium on offer for old crop UK rapeseed over new crop, aren't at all reflected in the domestic wheat market. In fact quite the opposite, with Jul 15 London wheat at a near GBP15/tonne discount to new crop Nov 15.
That won't be encouraging many to sell on the spot market, having carried their old crop this far, provided of course that they don't desperately need the space (or cash) ahead of the start of harvest 2015.
That likely means that there will be an unusually large volume of last year's production getting carried into 2015/16, continuing to weigh on the market - especially given that current sterling strength will make finding export homes a challenge once again in the new season ahead.
Chicago Markets Mixed, Wheat Jumps And Corn Follows But Beans Lag
23/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans, meal and oil all closed with small losses on the nears, although there were some minimal gains in some of the deferred positions. The latter probably came as a result of concerns over the US weather. Whilst a reduction of 2 percentage points in the good to excellent category by the USDA last night was in line with market expectations, some states showed much sharper declines that that. Ohio was down 14% in the G/E category, Indiana fell 13% and Illinois was cut 10%, and of course these are not insignificant soybean producing states. As far as plantings go, 90% complete is the slowest pace since 1996, according to Bloomberg. Last night's report suggested that there were still around 8.5 million acres of soybeans still to be sown in the US this year, using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate. That includes around 4 million in Missouri/Kansas and Nebraska, plus approximately another 0.5 million in Illinois. Despite these problems, Allendale estimated US soybean plantings this year at 85.105 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. Rabobank said that they still expect US plantings to beat the March USDA figure by around 1 million acres. Futures International forecast 2015 US soybean yields to average 44 bu/acre, which is 2 bu/acre less than the USDA. Oil World said that Europe imported 4 MMT of soybeans Mar/May, up 21% from a year ago. Meal imports were down slightly at 5.26 MMT. The largest bean supplier was Brazil with 2.37 MMT, followed by Paraguay at almost 1 MMT. China said that they'd imported 6.127 MMT of soybeans in May, up 3% from a year previously. Brazil at 5.427 MMT was easily the largest supplying nation. Rabobank estimated China's 2014/15 soybean imports at 73.5 MMT, rising to a record 77.5 MMT in 2015/16. They forecast Q4 2015 Chicago soybeans at an average of $8.90, rising to $9.00 in Q2 of next year. Meal prices were estimated averaging $295 in the final quarter of this year, rising to $310 in Q2 of 2016. If they are correct then the market is currently overvalued. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.87 1/2, down 2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.60 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $331.90, down $1.70; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.82, down 10 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 7-8 cents higher. Deteriorating crop conditions, especially in the eastern corn belt likely prompted some short-covering today. Last night's USDA report, whilst only cutting overall conditions by 2 percentage points in the good to excellent category on a national level, sliced 19% off the top two categories in Ohio, cut Indiana 15%, North Carolina was dropped 11% and Illinois decreased by 6%. Fund money was estimated as finishing the session a net buyer of around 16,000 contracts. Spillover support from surging wheat was likely another supportive factor today, although you could debate that a rain-ravaged, low quality US wheat crop is in fact more of a direct competitor with corn than if it came in of milling wheat standard. Rabobank estimated the US 2015 corn area at 89.2 million acres, the same as the USDA's March forecast. They said that yields could exceed 163 bu/acre if the weather "continues to be beneficial" - although some would argue that current conditions in some states such as those mentioned above aren't beneficial at all. Allendale estimated US corn plantings far higher at 91.742 million acres this year. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that this year's developing El Nino is displaying some characteristics of the previous record event of 1997/98. For the record US corn yields were down marginally that year (-0.4%) and soybean yields were up 3.6%. Rabobank added 2 MMT to their Brazilian corn crop estimate, taking that up to 81 MMT, saying that the safrinha crop looks in great shape. They forecast the Ukraine corn crop at 24 MMT, down 2 MMT on last year. They see China's imports at 3 MMT and said that the EU might import 3 MMT more corn next season due to a reduced domestic crop. They predicted US corn prices to average $3.70 in Q4 of this year, rising to $4.00 in Q2 of next year - slightly below where the market currently trades. Commerzbank are more bullish on corn, predicting US prices at $5.50 in the final quarter of 2015. China said that it had imported 403.9 TMT of corn in May, almost all of which (381.8 TMT) came from Ukraine. Argentine farmers are said to be set to increase sorghum plantings this year by 23%, eyeing China's revitalised interest in the crop, and switching away from wheat plantings. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with strong gains for a second session, doubtless helped by short-covering. Widespread reports of crop damage to winter wheat on the rain-sodden US Plains was certainly a supportive feature today. So too is the delayed harvest progress, particularly true in Kansas, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois. That is also holding back second crop soybean plantings in those states. Rabobank said that they have a neutral to slightly bullish price view on wheat prices following recent declines. Wheat prices will still face some harvest pressure, but should find a floor soon, they said. They predicted CBOT wheat prices to average $5.20 in Q4 of this year, and $5.30 by Q2 of 2016. The market is currently a little higher than this however. They added 1 MMT to their Russian wheat production estimate, taking that up to 56 MMT, saying that the country should export more than 20 MMT of wheat next season. The crop in Europe was reduced 1 MMT to 148 MMT on dryness in some areas, notably France and Germany. EU wheat exports could fall 10% to around 30 MMT in 2015/16, they said. US wheat exports may struggle to meet the current "optimistic" USDA forecast of 925 million bushels, they added. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology drew a parallel between current El Nino weather conditions and the record 1997/98 previous event. Australian wheat yields fell 12.4% that year. Dr Cordonnier said that Brazil could achieve a record 6.76 MMT wheat crop in 2015/16. Parana state is 82% planted and Rio Grande do Sul is around 33% done, he said. Near neighbours Paraguay are 100% sown, Uruguay is 85% done and Argentina 22% planted, and conditions in all four countries are currently favourable. That will likely reduce Brazil's import needs, and what they do buy will mostly come from their fellow Mercosur trade partners, rather than the US or elsewhere. China said that it imported 367.7 TMT of wheat in May, with Australia and Canada the largest suppliers. They also imported 726.2 TMT of barley, which came mostly from Australia and France. Reuters said that Indian millers had bought 500 TMT of Australian wheat so far this season, and might need to buy a further similar volume to compensate for a lower quality domestic crop this year. They said that new crop French or Russian offers were in line to take a large slice of this potential new business. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.27, up 20 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.39 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.81, up 16 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, Weak Euro Continues To Support French Market
23/06/15 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, with continued euro weakness on Greek nervousness helping support the French market. The one remaining old crop London wheat contract closed lower, but other months ended around GBP0.90/tonne firmer.
At the close Jul 15 London wheat was down GBP1.10/tonne at GBP109.90/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR184.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.50/tonne at EUR164.25/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR381.50/tonne.
The barley harvest is underway in Russia, Romania and Ukraine. Early yields are said to be "good" in the first two and "average" in the latter, according to Agritel.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested over 230 TMT of "grain" so far (assumed to be barley) and that average yields were up 18% on a year ago. Domestic barley prices in Russia are now under pressure.
The Russian Ministry picked up 33,345 MT of "grain" at their latest intervention purchase round, of which almost 30,000 MT was grade-3 milling wheat.
They're harvesting barley in France too, where the forecast is warm and dry for the next 14 days, with temperatures in Paris forecast to hit 29C on Friday. That should accelerate the early barley and rapeseed harvest, but may knock a bit more yield potential off winter wheat.
Reuters reported that Indian millers had bought around 500,000 MT of Australian milling wheat to blend in with their own lower grade domestic crop this year, and almost half of that wheat has already been shipped. They are said to potentially be in the market for a further similar volume, and may turn their attention now to French or Russian new crop when it becomes available shortly.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that the developing El Niño is similar to the previous record event seen in 1997/98. Australian wheat yields were down 12.4% overall that year, with El Niño typically bringing drought to eastern states, although it can sometimes make conditions wetter than normal in Western Australia.
"While the strengthening El Niño is a concern for crops in eastern Australia, the yield outlook is by no means yet clear. The timing of any rainfall over the next few weeks will be critical for these crops," said the HGCA.
"Meanwhile, the outlook for crops in Western Australia is currently more positive, but again, rainfall at certain growth development stages will be vital for crops to optimise yields," they added.
Oil World said that the EU had imported 4 MMT of soybeans in March-May this year, a 21% increase on the same period in 2014. Brazil was the largest supplier (at 2.37 MMT) followed by Paraguay (with almost 1 MMT). The EU also imported 5,26 MMT of soymeal in the period, slightly less than the 5.32 MMT brought in the previous year.
China said that it had imported 367.7 TMT of wheat in May, a 63% increase versus May 2014. Australia (210.8 TMT) and Canada (110.7 TMT) were the largest suppliers. The country also imported 726.2 TMT of barley last month, up 9% on a year ago, with Australia (406.9 TMT) and France (252.3 TMT) the biggest sellers.
The US winter wheat harvest remains retarded at only 19% complete versus 31% done normally, hampered by heavy rains which are causing sprouting and disease issues, as well as delaying planting of second crop soybeans.
Serbia said that it expects a 2015 wheat harvest of 2.4 MMT this year, which is enough to cover their domestic needs and provide something for export.
Rabobank forecast French milling wheat prices on MATIF at around EUR180/tonne in Q4 of this year, a little below where the Dec 15 contract currently trades. Having begun the year at EUR200/tonne, French prices have steadily ground lower throughout the year, currently showing a loss of 8.6% this year so far.
London wheat prices meanwhile are down close to 18% from where they finished 2014, and Chicago wheat is down almost 15%, showing that this year's demise of the euro has helped support the French market relative to the others throughout 2015 so far. The euro is down 9.5% versus the pound and has lost 7.5% of it's value against the US dollar so far this year.
Midwest Rains: Too Much Of A Good Thing, Or Not?
23/06/15 -- Most of this report came in yesterday from my US weather chum, Gail Martell at Martell Crop Projections, with a few inserts from your truly. You can click the image to enlarge it.
Excessive rainfall has developed in the eastern Midwest causing widespread flooding. Soybeans especially are in jeopardy, because plants are smaller, due to later planting dates than corn. As of May 31st, only half of soybeans had sprouted and emerged whereas corn development was rather advanced with early planting and stronger growth.
Soybean prospects are worse than corn 67% good-excellent, 27% fair and 6% poor-very poor in the June 14th report. Corn was 73% good-excellent, 22% fair and 5% poor-very poor in last week’s report. Updated conditions will be released this afternoon from USDA, expected to show worsening conditions in both crops from continuing heavy rainfall. (They did, soybeans now 65% good to excellent and corn is down to 71% in the top two categories, although that's far from a disaster just yet).
Illinois soybeans on June 14th were rather favourable with 70% good-excellent. The new report is expected to show worsening conditions in the second leading soybean state. Iowa soybeans were 80% good-excellent with relatively drier conditions. (Illinois beans are down 10 percentage points G/E to 60%, and Iowa is still on 80% as of last night).
Rainfall has been excessively heavy in the Midwest, east of the Mississippi Valley in particular. Tropical storm Bill is responsible for the extreme wetness, making landfall in Texas last week, spreading a swath of heavy rainfall up through Oklahoma then eastward through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Corn and soybeans west of the Mississippi Valley were “less wet”, though above average rainfall developed most everywhere in the farm belt. A rash of strong thunderstorms was under way this morning in the Upper Midwest keeping the rainy weather pattern going.
Virtually the entire Midwest soybean growing area is expecting more rain. The heaviest amounts are predicted for northeast Iowa, southwest Wisconsin, northern Illinois and central Ohio. Localised flooding is expected from excessive rainfall in the upcoming week, 4-6 times normal in selected areas.
Midwest temperatures are expected be merely average this week, cooler than last week, due to frequent cloudiness and showers.
Extreme Wetness Linked to El Nino
The El Nino climate anomaly is to blame for extreme wetness. The El Nino signal is particularly strong this season, in fact, among the most intense on record. The Climate Prediction Centre claims El Nino chances would remain above 90% in the next several weeks.
The USDA forecast for 2015 soybean production is 3.850 billion bushels, down 119 million bushels from the record 3.969 billion bushels produced in 2013. This forecast seems reasonable, but only if Midwest field conditions improve with drier weather. Perhaps smaller plants have been washed out in the low-lying areas. The prime time for soybean yields is the pod filling stage in August.
Chicago Grains End Higher Across The Board
22/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with strong gains on US planting concerns ahead of tonight's latest crop progress report from the USDA. That put US soybean plantings at only 90% complete, up just 3 points on the week and behind the 95% done 5-year average. That was also at the low end of expectations and means that as of Sunday night US farmers still had almost 8.5 million acres of soybeans left to sow using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate of 84.635 million acres. Kansas is only 73% done versus 91% normally at this time, and Missouri is barely past halfway through at 51% sown compared to the 5-year average of 88% complete. Emergence was placed at 84% versus 87% on average. Good to excellent ratings were cut 2 points to 65% versus 72% this time a year ago. Weekly export inspections came in at 178,094 MT and now need to average 155,876 MT to hit the USDA's target for the season. Cumulative season to date inspections are 47.6 MMT, around 112% of the total for the same week in 2013/14. Canadian canola futures hit a one year high, and prices in Europe are less than 2 euros away from being at a 14 month high. Canadian canola exports for the season to date are up 0.3% on a year ago at 7.6 MMT. Their soybean exports are up 5.9% at 2.4 MMT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.89 1/2, up 18 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.59 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $333.60, up $10.50; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.92, up 37 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 to 6 cents higher. Short-covering ahead of tonight's crop progress report may have been a feature today. After the close the USDA cut US corn crop ratings two points to 71% good to excellent compared to 74% this time last year. Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and North Carolina have the worst conditions. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa have the best. Weekly export inspections of over 1.1 MMT beat trade expectations and were a little above what's required to hit the USDA target for the season. China were said to have imported 400,000 MT of corn in May, but virtually none of it came from the US. Jan/May imports are now 1.78 MMT. Roach Ag Marketing estimated US 2015 corn plantings at 88.1 million acres compared with the USDA's March prediction of 89.199 million. The USDA are due to release their revised forecasts next Tuesday. Plantings in 2014 were 90.597 million acres. The EU Commission's MARS unit estimated corn yields in Europe this year at an average 7.22 MT/ha, unchanged on a month ago but 10.6% down versus 8.08 MT/ha in 2014. They raised their forecast for corn yields in Ukraine from 5.60 MT/ha a month ago to 6.13 MT/ha, where they said "all crops benefited from favourable thermal conditions while soil water contents are still high." APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 575.8 TMT of grains in the past week, of which 91.5% (527.1 TMT) was corn. Russia's seaports exported 336.6 TMT of grains last week, but less than 12% of that (39.2 TMT) was corn. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.60, up 6 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains on all three exchanges. The USDA reported the 2015 US winter wheat harvest had advanced 8 percentage points on the week to 19% complete, well below 31% done for the 5 year average. Missouri is only 12% done compared to 44% normally, Kansas is at 8% versus 33% on average, Indiana is at 5% done versus 20% normally and Illinois is just 3% complete against 29% typically at this time. Winter wheat crop ratings fell 2 points in the good to excellent category to 41%, although that's still better than only 30% a year ago. Spring wheat rated good to excellent was up one point on a week ago to 72%, the same as this time last year. Spring wheat at the headed stage was placed at 23% versus 15% on average at this time. Weekly export inspections of 290,300 MT were not a surprise, but not very impressive either. Canada said that it had exported 15.0 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) so far this season, a 3.3% increase on a year ago. Durum wheat exports are up 8% at 4.3 MMT and barley shipments are 5.5% higher at 1.3 MMT. APK Inform reported Russian seaports had shipped out 336.6 TMT of grains last week, up from 280.5 TMT the previous week, of which wheat accounted for 278.1 TMT of last week's total. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 29.63 MMT of grains so far this season, up 18% from a year ago. Wheat shipments are 15% higher at 21 MMT, barley exports are up more than 100% at 5.23 MMT. The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their estimate for EU soft wheat yields this year to 5.85 MT/ha from 5.93 MT/ha a month ago and down 4.7% on 6.14 MT/ha a year ago. German yields are seen almost 10% lower than a year ago at 7.77 MT/ha, but those in France are forecast slightly higher at 7.41 MT/ha. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.01 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12, up 8 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.53, up 10 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, With Euro Shaky On Greek Nervousness
22/06/15 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, with the euro "shaky" ahead of what could be a pivotal week for Greece and the Eurozone. The Greeks need to repay the IMF $1.6 billion by the end of the month, money that they clearly haven't got. EU leaders are however talking more optimistically today that an eleventh hour deal with the country's creditors could still be struck. Either way, the cost to Europe is likely to be large, keeping the euro under pressure for some time to come.
Jul 15 London wheat ended unchanged at GBP111.00/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was up EUR3.00/tonne at EUR181.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.00/tonne at EUR162.75/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed firmed EUR2.00tonne to close at EUR381.25/tonne.
The latter was within touching distance of the highest close for a front month since April 2014. Canadian canola futures hit a one year front month high today, and the benchmark Nov 15 contract hit its highest levels in 14 months as a combination of dryness and a mid-May frost threaten to cut production there this year.
The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their forecasts for EU soft wheat, barley and rapeseed yields from a month ago, but left corn potential unchanged in their latest monthly crop report today.
"Crop yield forecasts for most winter cereals at EU-28 level have been lowered compared to last month’s forecast due suboptimal weather conditions," they said.
They now peg this year's EU soft wheat average yield at 5.85 MT/ha, down 4.7% on a year ago and down from the 5.93 MT/ha predicted a month ago. Barley yields were pegged at 4.65 MT/ha compared to 4.75 MT/ha last month and 5.1% below 4.90 MT/ha in 2014. Rapeseed yields were reduced to 3.28 MT/ha from 3.42 MT/ha in May and are now 9.4% below year ago levels of 3.62 MT/ha.
Changes to yield potential in France were only minimal, with wheat unchanged, barley and corn up a bit and rapeseed down only slightly.
Germany was a different story however, with wheat yields now seen at 7.77 MT/ha compared to 8.04 MT/ha a month ago and now 9.9% lower year-on-year. Rapeseed yields were also cut significantly to 3.96 MT/ha versus 4.40 MT/ha in May and down 11.6% on an average of 4.48 MT/ha in 2014.
"Scarce rainfall over large parts of Germany gives reason to worry. Soil moisture has reached very low values and without rain in the coming days a clear yield reduction of winter crops is unavoidable," they said.
In the UK, wheat yields were estimated unchanged at 8.14 MT/ha, down 5.1% compared to last year. Barley yields were trimmed slightly to 6.12 MT/ha, down 4.4% versus 2014, and rapeseed yields were also cut back a little to 3.53 MT/ha, a 4.9% reduction on a year ago.
"Relatively cool weather slowed down crop development somewhat but indicators remain positive. More rain is needed in south-eastern England to sustain good growth over the coming weeks," they said.
In other news, APK Inform said that Ukraine's seaports had exported an impressive 575.8 TMT of grains last week, up from 402.5 TMT the previous week. Once again corn accounted for the vast majority of that total at 527.1 TMT.
Russian exports via seaports were also up week-on-week, albeit at not quite such stellar levels. They shipped out 336.6 TMT of grains lat week, with wheat accounting for the lion's share at 278.1 TMT.
Bulgaria's Ag Ministry said that the country's 2015 wheat crop would come in at around 4.3-4.5 MMT compared to 4.9 MMT last year.
