Chicago Soybeans Trade Under $9/bu For First Time Since 2009
19/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with September trading below $9/bushel at one stage, that hasn't happened on a front month since 2009. Nov 15 closed below that level for the first time in the contract's history. Outside influences like the state of China's economy and continued weakness in crude oil weighed today. Argentina estimated farmer selling on 2014/15 soybeans at 62% versus 54% a year ago. Day 3 of the ProFarmer Crop Tour in Western Iowa found soybean pod-counts of 1,282 in a 3-ft by 3-ft plot, up from 1,173.6 a year earlier, report Bloomberg. In Illinois they found pod-counts of 1,191.22 versus 1,299.17 a year ago. The tour ends tomorrow and final yield estimates are due Friday. Dr Cordonnier estimated US soybean yields at 44.0 bu/acre, up from 43.5 bu/acre previously, but still well below the USDA's 46.9 bu/acre. "Fundamentally, we continue to point to variability in the crop combined with increasing disease problems as a risk, with expectations that this crop is closer to 44 bushels than it is 47 bushels per acre, with acreage likely to drop in future reports as well," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report on beans vary from as little as 200 TMT to over 1 MMT. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $9.03 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.93 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $324.00, down $0.60; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.89, down 43 points and the lowest for a front month since January 2007.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent higher, doing it's best to ignore what was happening to soybeans. The ProFarmer crop tour in Western Iowa found corn yields estimated at 158.9 bu/acre, down sharply from an average of 178.75 bu/acre in the region a year earlier, said Bloomberg. Corn yields in Illinois averaged 169.42 bu/acre, also down significantly on the state’s average yield estimate of 196.96 bu/acre on the tour last year. Dr Cordonnier raised his US corn yield estimate from 164.5 bu/acre to 165.0 bu/acre. The USDA are currently at 168.8 bu/acre. Argentina estimated farmer selling on 2014/15 corn at 67% versus 63% a year ago. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that August heat and dryness could cut corn yields there by around 10-15% this year. These conditions are also causing premature ripening of the crop, they added. A private crop tour of Ukraine was said to have pegged this year's corn crop at only 21 MMT, which is 6 MMT below where the USDA currently sit. Shanghai JC Intelligence say that the Chinese government are considering cutting the price it pays local corn growers (said to be close to $300/tonne last year), possibly as early as the impending 2015/16 marketing year which begins in October, in an effort to simply stop stock-piling so much of the crop. They are looking at moving away from a fixed price to a market-based pricing system, they say. Local prices could be cut by 20% analysts suggest. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the Argentine 2015/16 corn area at 2.72 million ha, down 20% from a year ago. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the 350-750 TMT area. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.67 1/4, up 1 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.78 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. Brazil are tendering for 146,000 MT of wheat, 30,000 MT of Australian, 35,000 MT of Canadian and 81,000 MT of US origin, according to Reuters. Jordan announced a tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Two South Korean companies tendered for 27,400 MT and 23,900 MT of US wheat for November delivery. Ukraine exported 769,800 MT of wheat in July, 18% more than a year ago and more than double the 5-year average, UkrAgroConsult said. They appear to be taking advantage of Russian exporter reluctance whilst they wait for the government to alter the current export duty on wheat. Russia's wheat exports Jul 1 to Aug 9 were only 1.66 MMT, which is less than half the level of a year ago, according to their Ag Ministry. Russia's 2015 wheat harvest is said to be now past halfway done on 13.7 million ha producing a crop of 43.7 MMT to date. Growers there have now begun winter grain planting for the 2016 harvest, the sowing of which is now said to be 2.6% complete. Russia said it was aiming to buy 2 MMT of domestic grain at intervention between now and the end of the year. Argentina estimated farmer selling on 2014/15 wheat at 92% versus 67% a year ago. Heavy rain there is said to be possibly causing some winter wheat crop losses. The National Australia Bank projected wheat production ther at only 21.6 MMT, which is 4.4 MMT lower than the current USDA forecast. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the 400,000-675,000 MT region. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.96 1/4, up 2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.74 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.08 1/4, unchanged.
EU Grains Attempt Feeble Rally Following Recent Rout
19/08/15 -- EU grains closed mixed, attempting a relatively feeble and half-hearted recovery following the recent rout. Nov 15 London wheat is down almost 13% since the first day of July, whilst the Paris market has fallen 12%. Paris rapeseed is down by almost 9% in this time. Corn has fared a little better on EU production worries, but is still down over 7% in the same period despite these concerns.
At the close, Nov 15 London wheat was up GBP0.45/tonne to GBP114.45/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.25/tonne easier at EUR170.50/tonne, Nov 15 Paris corn was down EUR1.00/tonne to EUR175.25/tonne, whilst Nov 15 Paris rapeseed slumped EUR6.00/tonne lower to EUR362.75/tonne.
Benchmark Nov 15 Chicago soybeans fell below $9/bushel for the first time in the contract's history today, which put rapeseed under pressure despite lower production estimates for it here and around the globe.
The German Stats Office said that the country's carryover grain stocks as of Jun 30 were up by a third compared to a year previously at 2.6 MMT, which should help ease the blow of production in 2015 being estimated 11% lower by the farm association DBV yesterday.
Russia's harvest rumbles on, and is now said to be 44.7% complete on over 21 million ha, producing a crop of 60.5 MMT to date. Yields are said to be averaging 2.88 MT/ha, which is down 7.4% on a year ago at this time.
Wheat accounts for 43.7 MMT of that, the harvesting of which is now past halfway done. Average yields there are down 9.3% at 3.2 MT/ha.
As flagged up previously, as the harvest has progressed away from the more productive south, yields are dropping away and dragging the average down. Average yields in the Central region are over 17% lower than a year ago. They are down 12.5% in the Volga region, 13.5% lower in the Urals and 11% below last year in Siberia - although the harvest is only just starting in the latter two areas.
Nevertheless, the government are standing by their estimate for a 2015 grain harvest of at least 100 MMT, and maybe more.
The Russian Ag Ministry say that wheat exports Jul 1 to Aug 9 were 1.66 MMT, less than half of the volume shipped out in the same period in 2014.
Rusagrotrans see a surge coming this month though, they estimate exports at 3.7-4.0 MMT this month, up from the 3.2 MMT previously forecast, although still less than the record 4.5 MMT that was said to have been exported in Aug 2014.
In Kazakhstan the harvest is still in it's early stages, only 6.3% complete at almost 1.5 MMT. Yields here are averaging 1.6 MT/ha, which might sound like a disaster to you and me but they were little more than 1 MT/ha this time a year ago.
In Ukraine, the Ag Ministry there say that August heat and dryness could knock 10-15% off corn yields this year. The prevailing conditions have also caused premature ripening of the crop, they add.
Shanghai JC Intelligence say that the Chinese government are considering cutting the price it pays local corn growers (said to be close to $300/tonne last year), possibly as early as the impending 2015/16 marketing year which begins in October, in an effort to simply stop stock-piling so much of the wretched stuff. They are looking at moving away from a fixed price to a market-based pricing system, they say. Local prices could be cut by 20% analysts suggest.
That could also have a negative impact on China's corn and sorghum imports.
Chicago Grains Mostly Lower, Although Corn Bucks The Trend
18/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with Sep 15 posting the lowest close on a front month since early October 2014. "There's a 90% -100% chance of rain today in the Midwest. Strong thunderstorms would gradually lessen tomorrow evening as cooler and drier air filters into the heartland, while showers push east into Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. More rain is predicted Friday-Sunday, ending a brief dry spell. Strong showers would favour Iowa, Minnesota and western Illinois, though coverage would be scattered. One 1 inch of rainfall, but 2 inches locally, is possible in scattered strong thunderstorms. Field moisture may change from ample to excessively wet, if the weekend rainfall becomes very heavy," said Martell Crop Projections. For now, the trade is viewing these conditions as non-threatening for soybeans, although the majority have the idea that US yields won't end up as high as the 46.9 bu/acre currently being predicted by the USDA. On the ProFarmer crop tour in Nebraska, soybean pod counts were seen averaging 1,290 per 3 foot square plot after 13 samples, up from 1,103.3 reported in same area a year earlier, say Bloomberg. In Indiana inspections showed 1,163.97 pods, down from 1,220.79 in the same state a year earlier, they add. Oil World forecast Argentine soybean plantings for next season at 19.75 million ha versus 19.67 million last year. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $9.13 1/4, down 13 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $324.60, down $0.80; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.32, down 74 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents higher, aided by last night's one point drop in good to excellent crop ratings. As with beans, few think that US yields will achieve the 168.8 bu/acre that the USDA are forecasting. Corn yields averaged 150.99 bu/acre, based on 15 samples taken on 3 routes in Indiana, on the second day of the ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, said Bloomberg. Nevertheless, corn yields were estimated at 174.9 bu/acre after 12 samples taken on four routes through Nebraska, the third-largest US corn state. A year ago, the tour reported yields of 163.8 bu/acre in the same area. Arlan Suderman at Water Street Solutions sees 2015 US corn yields at 161.5 bushels per acre, based on his company's state-by-state analysis. "Keep in mind that such a yield is just 2% below a 30-year trend yield, which is a trend that I believe has worked the best over the years. It’s amazing to see how many people find a 2% drop difficult to swallow following USDA’s bearish report on August 12 and in light of the exceptional 2014 crop, but that’s human nature. In reality, the drop may be more than 2%," he adds. Also as with beans, the trade doesn't currently perceive Midwest wetness as too much of a threat - "rain makes grain" and all that. Agritel said that Ukraine's 2015 corn production potential is 26.6 MMT, down from 28.45 MMT a year ago. Export potential in 2015/16 is 16.2 MMT, they added. The USDA currently predict Ukraine's corn crop at 27 MMT this year, and have 2015/16 exports at 17.5 MMT versus 19 MMT in 2014/15. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.66 1/4, up 3 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended around 5-7 cents lower. Bloomberg report that Russia may have exported more wheat in July than official Ministry data shows. Rusagrotrans said that the country may have in fact exported 2.1 MMT versus the 1.3 MMT officially reported. The Russian Ag Min said that the country's 2015 wheat harvest was 49.5% complete on 13.3 million ha producing a crop of 43 MMT to date. The barley harvest is 49.4% complete on 4.4 million ha producing a crop of 10.9 MMT so far. The Russian Ag Ministry says that it will begin purchasing grain for the state intervention fund tomorrow. Ukraine's Ag Min forecast a 2015 grain harvest of 60 MMT, with exports in 2015/16 at a record 36 MMT. The Ukraine Ministry of Economic Development estimated production a little lower at 59.5 MMT. Their 2015 wheat harvest is now finished at 26.82 MMT, say the Ag Ministry. The Kazakh 2015 grain harvest is 6.2% complete on 910k ha, producing a crop of 1.47 MMT to date. El Nino-related heavy rainfall in Argentina is affecting wheat and threatening corn plantings in the Buenos Aires province, as well as in southern Santa Fe, parts of Entre Rios and a few other areas, reported Bloomberg. Germany's farm association, DBV, estimated the 2015 winter wheat harvest there down 2.8 MMT on a year ago at 24.6 MMT, with yields seen 12% lower at 7.6 MT/ha. Harvesting of that crop is ongoing. The German winter barley harvest is over, and is down 3% year-on-year at 9.2 MMT, they added. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.94 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.76, down 6 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.08 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Rout Continues
18/08/15 -- EU grains closed mostly lower, with London wheat kicked along the way courtesy of a suddenly higher pound,
At the close, Nov 15 London wheat was down GBP1.70/tonne to GBP114.00/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR2.00/tonne easier at EUR173.75/tonne, Nov 15 Paris corn was down EUR1.00/tonne to EUR176.25/tonne, whilst Nov 15 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.00/tonne lower at EUR368.75/tonne.
Sterling strength was tied to a surprise rise in CPI inflation last month, albeit only from 0% to 0.1%, but even that was enough to foster ideas of a UK base rate rise sooner rather than later.
That was enough to send Nov 15 London wheat crashing to a fresh lifetime contract low of GBP113.50/tonne.
Ukraine said that their early grain harvest is now complete at 36.66 MMT. This time last year they were 98% done with a crop of 34.83 MMT.
Ukraine's 2015 wheat harvest came in at 26.82 MMT, with yields averaging 3.94 MT/ha, say the Ag Ministry. Their barley crop has ended up at 8.51 MMT, with yields at 3.05 MT/ha, they add.
These figures are in bunker weight by the way. According to the USDA Ukraine's 2014 wheat harvest (in cleaned weight) was 24.75 MMT and their barley crop last year was 9.45 MMT.
Their 2015 rapeseed harvest is also complete (that isn't included in the early grain harvest totals). That's come in at 1.73 MMT on an average yield of 2.57 MT/ha, say the Ag Ministry. That's a 21% fall from 2.2 MMT a year ago.
Ukraine's Aug 1 grain stocks were reported as 24.5 MMT, up 17% on a year ago, including 17.5 MMT of wheat, 2.7 MMT of barley and 2.0 MMT of corn.
Russia meanwhile said that it's 2015 harvest is 43.4% complete on 20.4 million ha, producing a crop of 59 MMT to date with yields averaging 2.90 MT/ha - down from 3.17 MT/ha a year ago.
That includes a wheat harvest that's almost at the halfway stage (49.5% complete) producing 43 MMT to date with yields at 3.23 MT/ha, down 9.2% on a year ago. They've also harvested 10.9 MMT of barley off 49.4% of the planted area, with yields averaging 2.49 MT/ha, down 11% versus this time last year.
Germany's DBV estimated the 2015 grain harvest there to be down 12% at 46.5 MMT, as spring drought left it's mark, especially on winter wheat. That crop is seen 10% lower than a year ago at 24.6 MMT, despite a 2% rise in planted area. Yields are estimated 12% lower at 7.6 MT/ha. Quality this year is quite variable, they said.
The winter barley harvest is over at 9.2 MMT, a 3% decline on a year ago. Spring barley also suffered at the hands of the heat and dryness, that harvest is estimated 5% lower at 2.0 MMT despite a 7% increase in plantings.
The crop with the largest year-on-year production decline in Germany is rapeseed. DBV estimate that harvest at 5.0 MMT, down 20% on last year's record, partly due to an 8% decline in planted area due to the new neonicotinoid ban.
German ex-farm prices are around EUR145-175/tonne on winter wheat depending on location and quality, with winter barley trading around EUR130-150/tonne, they said.
That's not too different to prices in East Anglia in sterling terms, with spot feed barley worth little more than GBP90/tonne and feed wheat just about making three figures.
New Lows For London Wheat, Stick Or Twist?
At noon, Nov 15 London wheat was down GBP0.70/tonne to GBP115.00/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR174.00/tonne, Nov 15 Paris corn was EUR0.75/tonne easier at EUR176.50/tonne, whilst Nov 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR371.25/tonne.
News that UK inflation rose to the dizzy heights of 0.1% in July was all it took to see sterling rally more than a cent against the dollar to a 7-week high of over 1.57 versus the US currency. It's also currently testing 1.42 versus the euro.
More importantly, core inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) jumped 0.3 percentage points to 1.2% year-on-year, and now lies above its 1999-2007 average of 1.1% (and base rates averaged 4.8% during that time). That's getting the market thinking that a UK interest rate rise might not be too far away.
MPC members and BoE governor Carney have long since stated that rising core inflation is one of the key factors behind the timing of the first interest rate rise in years.
A sharply higher pound was enough to send London wheat to new lows on the benchmark Nov 15 contract. The next marketing year Nov 16 contract now trades at a GBP12.00/tonne premium to the current front month last night. Does that mean it's a sell?
The HGCA said late last week that as the Nov 16 contract has now been trading for over a year, nearly a third of the time available to market the 2016 crop has already elapsed. "Anyone aiming to achieve the market average price would typically target to have sold nearly a third of their anticipated production at this point in the marketing window," they noted.
Hands up all of you who've done that? Right, that'll be nobody then. It is worth noting that this is a more than 10% premium - double what is currently available to carry Dec 15 Paris wheat into Dec 16. The premium on offer in Chicago incidentally is currently around 7% to do the same thing.
The disparity between the London and Paris carry is particularly interesting, given the widespread conviction that the pound will continue to rise in value versus the euro over the ensuing 12 months, don't you think? Barclays currently have the GBP forecast at 1.47 versus the EUR in Q1 of 2016.
Doing nothing and relying on good old fashioned hope isn't really a great marketing strategy is it? Neither is selling at a loss I hear you cry. Fair comment of course, but if you could now sell Nov 15 at GBP127/tonne would you? There's a few more hands going up now than when I asked a minute ago. I'm not advocating selling the entire crop here of course, but nothing sold at all does equal 100% exposure.
Another option of course is don't plant it rather than fret for the next 12 months that all you are doing is losing money. But then if you don't plant it, and half of those around you do likewise, the stubborn old buggers that have gone ahead and planted regardless will end up making a killing won't they? Bugger!
Paris Dec 16 wheat currently trades at the equivalent of GBP132/tonne using the spot GBP/EUR exchange rate. If the pound is 1.47 in 2016 that's around GBP127.50/tonne - virtually the same price as the current Nov 16 London feed wheat contract.
At the very least, selling London and buying Paris would seem to potentially offer some reward.
Chicago Grains Closing Report - Monday
17/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains, with the market expecting a one point reduction in US good to excellent crop ratings after the close. They didn't get it, the USDA left G/E ratings unchanged on a week ago at 63%. The worst ratings are in Missouri at only 31% good to excellent. The best are in Minnesota at 80% G/E. They said that 79% of the crop is setting pods, up 10 points on last week and exactly in line with the 5-year average, with 93% of the crop blooming being 2 points behind the norm. Support came from the news that weekly export inspections came in at 375,763 MT, more than double last week's total and the highest since early April. Also friendly was news that the July NOPA crush was 145.2 million bushels, up from 142.4 million in June, and 21% higher than a year previously. A Bloomberg survey saw that only at at an average of 139.5 million bushels. The year-to-date NOPA crush is up 11% year-on-year. The first day of the Pro Farmer crop tour in Ohio found very variable yield potential in soybeans this year. Average pod counts in a 3 foot square plot were said to be 1,098.4, down from 1,342.42 in 2014. Things were a bit better in South Dakota where pod counts of 1,226 versus 1,058 a year earlier were reported. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $9.27, up 1 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.17, up 1/2 cent; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $325.40, up $0.20; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 29.06, down 2 points.
Corn: The market closed slightly lower. As with beans the trade was expecting on average a one point cut in good to excellent crop ratings, unlike last week this time round the USDA concurred, paring back G/E to 69%. The worst ratings are in North Carolina (43% G/E), Ohio (46% G/E) and Indiana (48% G/E). The best conditions are 88% G/E in Minnesota. They said that 71% of the crop is at the dough stage, 5 points ahead of average, and that 21% of the crop is dented versus 28% on average at this time. Weekly export inspections were in line with expectations at 890,083 MT. The ProFarmer crop tour in South Dakota estimated average corn yields there at 154 bu/acre, up from 153 bu/acre a year ago. In Ohio however, corn yields only averaged 152.9 bu/acre, down from the 182.11 bu/acre measured in the same area a year earlier, said Bloomberg. The FSA reported the prevented planting corn area at 2.3 million acres, up from 1.54 million a year ago, but that number probably won't be factored into things until October. Taiwan purchased 23,000 MT of US corn in a tender. Ukraine said that it had exported 3.77 MMT of grains already this season, of which 1.12 MMT was corn. Russia said that it had exported only 159 TMT of corn so far this season, but it is expecting shipments to pick up once the 2015 harvest begins. Russia is forecasting a record 13.5 MMT corn crop this year. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.63 1/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.74 1/2, down 1 cent.
Wheat: The market closed around 5-7 cents lower. World production potential appears to be getting larger, with IKAR today raising their view on the Russian wheat crop to 61 MMT this year, now beating last season's production. France will now have finished harvesting what is expected to now be a record wheat crop. Ukraine's 2015 wheat crop has also come in above early season expectations. All three are of course aggressive competitors with US wheat on the export front. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 560,083 MT today, which was pretty decent by recent standards and up by a third on a week ago. Year to date inspections are still down more than 20% from a year ago though. The USDA estimated the 2015 US spring wheat harvest at 53% complete, up from 28% done a week ago and well ahead of only 31% on average at this time. Crop ratings were up one point to 70% good to excellent, which is 2 points ahead of this time last year. Bangladesh tendered for 50,000 MT of wheat for shipment between August and October. India cut their figure for this year's wheat harvest from 90.78 MMT to 88.94 MMT. Ukraine said that they'd exported 1.44 MMT of wheat already this season. Russia said that their wheat shipments so far totalled 1.66 MMT, down sharply from 3.67 MMT a year previously. The current Russian export duty on wheat linked to the value of the weak rouble is probably the reason that exports are down so much. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.00 1/2, down 6 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.82 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.13, down 5 1/2 cents.
Nov 15 London Wheat Sets New Lifetime Contract Low
17/08/15 -- EU grains traded mixed, but mostly a little lower, in a fairly subdued start to the week.
Outside markets are offering little support, with the barometer for global economic health that is NYMEX crude oil trading below $42/barrel on Friday and again this morning - it hasn't languished down there since the dark days of early 2009 that were linked to the post sub-prime fallout.
Nov 15 London wheat closed GBP2.15/tonne lower at GBP115.70/tonne, after setting a new lifetime contract low of GBP115.50/tonne. Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR175.75/tonne, Nov 15 Paris corn was down EUR1.50/tonne to EUR177.25/tonne and Nov 15 rapeseed was down EUR0.50/tonne to EUR370.75/tonne.
Fresh news was scarce to begin the week, but that will change later today when we get the USDA's weekly crop condition and export inspections reports.
UK growers will welcome a decent weather forecast for most parts, at least through until Thursday, after widespread rain brought the 2015 harvest to a halt on Friday.
Ukraine said that they'd exported 3.77 MMT of grains already this season (Jul 1 to Aug 14), with a further 427 TMT loaded onto vessels waiting to sail.
The volume exported so far is fairly even split, including 1.44 MMT of wheat, 1.2 MMT of barley and 1.12 MMT of corn.
Unlike grains, their rapeseed exports haven't made an impressive start to 2015/16. According to APK Inform the country shipped out less than 90 TMT of rapeseed in July, down sharply from the more than 300 TMT exported in July 2014, and over 215 TMT in July 2013.
The top buyer of Ukraine rapeseed in the month was France, taking almost half (47%), followed by the Netherlands on 18%.
APK Inform estimate the country's total rapeseed exports to be down 24% this season to 1.5 MMT, after reduced plantings and high levels of winterkill cut 2015 production by 21% to 1.7 MMT.
Russia's 2015 grain exports haven't begun at the impressive pace of their neighbours. These are said to be down 46% (Jul 1 to Aug 9) versus the same period in 2014. And at 2.61 MMT are over 30% behind the volume already exported by Ukraine.
This total is split 1.66 MMT of wheat, 771 TMT of barley and 159 TMT of corn. Exports are expected to pick up if and when the government revise the way the existing export duty on wheat is calculated.
IKAR were today said to have raised their forecast for this year's Russian wheat crop to 61 MMT, which would now outstrip production last year.
Bangladesh are in the market tendering for 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for September/October shipment.
Tunisia are said to have bought 117 TMT of optional origin milling wheat in a tender for 209 TMT for January/February shipment.
Belarus said that they'd harvested almost 8 MMT of grains so far this season, with average yields of 3.89 MT/ha down 0.5 MT/ha on a year ago.
US Grains Mixed Friday, But All Post Weekly Losses
Corn: The corn market closed around unchanged on the day, but lower for the week, with many also caught on the wrong side of Wednesday's USDA report. Tonight's commitment of traders report has managed money sitting on an expensive net long of in excess of 100k contracts as of Tuesday night, although they will have dumped some of that length on Wednesday. Many analysts are suggesting that US corn conditions might slip a bit in the Monday report. Last week was similar though. The USDA actually left corn crop ratings unchanged at 70% good to excellent, where a one point drop was anticipated according to a Bloomberg survey. Silking was at 96%, in line with normal. They said that 50% of the crop was at the dough stage, one point ahead of normal. The Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment found a few more bulls around for corn though, 6 of them to be precise, lined up against 10 bears and 6 neutrals. The ProFarmer crop tour next week will be closely monitored, to see if the USDA's apparent conviction that US corn yields this year will indeed be the second highest on record is backed up by reports from the field. The trade will also be keeping an eye on the weather, with dry and warm conditions in the forecast until early next week, when cooler conditions are expected to return. South Korea's FLC bought 60,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb shipment in a tender for 140,000 MT. Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that it's corn harvest was now 91% complete producing a crop of 24.1 MMT to date. They held steady on their forecast for final output this year of 26 MMT. The French corn crop was rated 55% good to very good by FranceAgriMer today, down 3 points on last week and now 30 points less than where it was in mid-June. The crop was rated 86% good to very good this time last year. The French Ag Ministry pegged production there at only 13.5 MMT earlier in the week, down 28% on a year ago. Plantings were down 10% and yields will fall almost 20%, they said. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.64, up 1/4 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.75 1/2, up 1/4 cent. For the week Sep 15 corn was down 8 3/4 cents, with Dec 15 falling 8 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market managed to post some gains at the close of play today, but was still lower on the week. Wednesday's USDA report was less of a "shocker" for wheat than it was for corn or beans. Nevertheless, the trade remains concerned about the lack of demand for US wheat. This week's export sales were back in the "routine" category after some pretty buoyant ones the previous week, suggesting that the latter was maybe just a one-off. The Bloomberg trader sentiment survey found even fewer bulls on wheat than there were on soybeans, just 2 of them. There were more bears around than for corn or beans as well, 15 of them, along with 5 neutrals. French wheat seems to have escaped the problems that have beset the corn crop there, with the 2015 harvest just about wrapped up for another year. FranceAgriMer forecast soft wheat production there this year at a record 40.4 MMT, helped by improved yields and a 3% increase in plantings to the largest area since before the second World War. The early pace that the EU has issued both wheat and barley export licences is so far ahead of last year, when exports went on to set new records. This week's export licences were a bit disappointing though, at 349 TMT for soft wheat and only 161 TMT for barley. The trade will be watching to see if that's the start of a trend. The trade will also be keeping an eye on developments in Russia. Their 2015 wheat harvest is approaching halfway done, and yields are now running around 8% lower than they were a year ago. Early yields had been throwing up better results than 12 months ago. Russia's early season export pace has also been well behind where things were a year ago, which seems to be directly linked to the current floating duty on wheat exports. The Russian government are said to be considering ways to alter the way that this is calculated, so that wants monitoring too. Tunisia are tendering in the market for 209 TMT of optional origin milling wheat. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.06 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.89 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.18 1/2, up 1/4 cent. For the week CBOT wheat was 4 cents lower, KCBT lost 3 1/4 cents and MGEX fell 6 1/2 cents.
Thought for the day: Maybe one of these hemorrhaging-money-hand-over-fist funds could do worse than sack the so-called managers they've got working for them on massive wages and employ one of the guys being canvassed by Bloomberg instead? They seem to be more clued up than the over-paid numpties that they are currently employing. Back in April when a Bloomberg survey came up with an average French soft wheat production estimate of 38.1 MMT, who was the highest in the ring with 39.5 MMT? Ditto the highest for EU soft wheat production at 142 MMT? Moi! When do I start? I won't be cheap though!
