Chicago Beans Extend Winning Run
28/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with fair gains, but also well off session highs which had them more than 20 cents up at once stage. Weekly export inspections came in at a very respectable total of more than 2 MMT, down more than 20% on last week, but still larger than the same week a year ago. This was towards the top end of trade expectations. There were no new USDA sales announcements today. The usual Friday weekly commitment of traders report was delayed until today due to last week's Thanksgiving Day holiday. Managed money was seen adding 15,467 contracts to their net long position for the week through to Tuesday night. They will have added more since then. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.56, up 10 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.64 1/2, up 10 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $325.90, up $5.10; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.71, up 5 points.
Corn: Corn closed around unchanged. Weekly export inspections of 800,967 MT were towards the lower end of what the trade was anticipating. In Russia, corn harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT. Ukrain is 84% complete at 22.4 MMT. Both are stepping up their foreign corn shipments. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week, up from 616.7 TMT the previous week. That included 438.1 TMT (52%) of corn. Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled 436.1 TMT last week including 67.7 TMT of corn. Brazilian weather conditions remain near perfect. Chinese customs data shows that they imported 2.99 MMT of corn Jan/Oct, a 35% reduction compared to a year previously. Almost all of that came from Ukraine. The commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their net short in corn futures and options by 24,762 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, unchanged.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago the loser and Kansas and Minneapolis around unchanged to as much as 7 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of only 221,985 MT were poor. Chinese customs data shows that they stepped up their wheat imports Jan/Oct to a cumulative 3.12 MMT, up 22% on the same period in 2015. That largest suppliers were Australia, Canada and the US. This came at the expense of barley imports however which were down 57% at 4.18 MMT. The largest suppliers here were Australia, France and Canada. The USDA put 58% of the US winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged on a week ago. They said that 92% of the crop is emerged, exactly in line with the 5-year average. The commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their overall net short in CBOT wheat by 18,131 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.89 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 1/4, up 7 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Lower
28/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly lower. Fresh news was once again scarce.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP1.25/tonne at GBP139.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR165.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR166.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR402.75/tonne.
Nov 17 London wheat failed to hold onto gains above the GBP140/tonne mark, which looks like resistance. Paris wheat and corn look range-bound in the mid EUR160's.
Rapeseed did manage to hold above the key EUR400/tonne level against a background of tightness in availability in the EU. Oil Word estimated EU-28 Nov 1 rapeseed stocks at 13.4 MMT, down 12% on this time a year ago and a 5-year low.
Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled 436.1 TMT last week, down slightly from the previous week. That total included 351.8 TMT (80.7%) of wheat, 67.7 TMT of corn and 13.6 TMT of barley.
YTD exports are still lagging year ago levels, but are forecast to hold up during the second half of the season. Rusagrotrans forecast November grain exports at 3.7-3.8 MMT, a 20% increase on a year ago. Wheat will account for around 2.55-2.60 MMT of that total (up 16% versus 2015), with barley a further 250 TMT and corn an additional 850-900 TMT, they predict.
December imports will hold, and roughly match year ago levels, at 3.8 MMT, they estimate.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their harvest had now reached 124.3 MMT off 96.7% of the planned area. Wheat and barley harvesting is almost over, corn harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT.
They said that Russian grain exports (to Nov 21) were down 0.8% at 15.82 MMT. Wheat accounts for 78.7% of that total at 12.45 MMT.
Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was 95% complete at 61.6 MMT. Corn harvesting is 84% done at 22.4 MMT.
APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week, up from 616.7 TMT the previous week. That included 327.3 TMT of wheat, 438.1 TMT of corn and 70.9 TMT of barley.
Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of hard wheat of optional origin for Jan/Feb shipment and 50-75,000 MT of feed barley for January delivery.
Chicago Close - Friday
25/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher the day after Thanksgiving, as is frequently the case. Strong weekly export sales of 1,898,600 MT for 2016/17 were up 35 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 2,808,200 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week but still mighty impressive. China too over 2 MMT of this week's total. Other than that fresh news was light and trade was thin with many dealers taking the opportunity to book a long weekend. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.46, up 11 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.54 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $320.80, up $4.40; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 36.66, down 19 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. As with beans, fresh news was thin on the ground, and so too were traders. Argentina reported that their corn crop was 41.1% planted of the anticipated 4.9 million ha. Weekly export sales came in at 1,688,800 MT for 2016/17, up 2 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The trade was expecting sales of 900 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Exports of 591,800 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points in a week and the same as this time a year ago. In Russia, corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete at 13.4 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.49 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.58 1/4, down 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, higher in Minneapolis and lower in Kansas and Chicago. Minneapolis gets a boost from the continued problems experienced by Canadian growers getting the last of their spring wheat harvest in. Some 6% of the crop is still in the field in Saskatchewan. For once weekly export sales were much better than expected at 712,500 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17. These were up 19 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 379,500 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Argentina's wheat crop is reported at 17.7% harvested. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.95 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.34 1/4, up 7 cents.
EU Grains Post Mostly Small Weekly Gains
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP140.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was also unchanged EUR166.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.25/tonne to EUR401.75/tonne.
For the week London wheat gained GBP0.85/tonne, Paris wheat and corn both added EUR0.75/tonne and rapeseed advanced EUR4.25/tonne.
Many traders in the US remained absent following yesterday's Thanksgiving Day holiday, so activity was light and news was thin.
FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points in a week and the same as this time a year ago.
French winter wheat crop conditions good to very good fell one point from a week ago to 94%, which is 4 points below this time last year. Winter barley crop conditions were unchanged at 92% good to very good (versus 98% a year ago).
Russia said that they'd harvested 124 MMT of grains off 96.6% of the planned area. Corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete at 13.4 MMT.
Canadian growers are struggling to wrap up the last of their 2016 harvest with 6% of their spring wheat and 4% of canola crops still remaining in the field in the province of Saskatchewan as of Nov 21.
Little Change To EU Grains In Thin Trade
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was unchanged at GBP139.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR166.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne higher at EUR404.00/tonne.
With America shut fresh news was always likely to be thin on the ground, and so it proved.
EU soft wheat exports reached 481,000 MT this week, up 39% on a week ago and taking the season to date total to 9.4 MMT, a 9% increase on this time a year ago.
EU barley exports were only 51,000 MT, down 55% on last week.
Russia reported their 2016 corn harvest to be 79.6% complete at 13.3 MMT. The last of the spring wheat and barley harvests are also still being wrapped up.
Russian winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are just about done on 17.3 million ha, with crops mostly covered by a thin layer of snow.
This is around 1 million ha more than last year and a new record high, say Agritel. Winter wheat will consist of around 14 million ha of this total, they say.
The euro remains weak, supporting Paris grains. The pound hovers around 1.1750 versus the single currency - a 2 1/2 month high.
US markets remain closed Friday morning but will trade a holiday-shortened session Friday afternoon (London time).
Soyoil Surges On EPA News
23/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher in pre-Thanksgiving trade as soyoil surged following the decision by the EPA to raise the biofuels requirements to 19.28 billion gallons for 2017 versus 18.11 billion this year. Strong Chinese crush margins and the weak Chinese yuan added support. The prospect of another record Brazilian crop down the line caps gains though. Rabobank forecast US soybean prices of $10.70/bushel this spring. Funds were estimated as finishing net buyers of 3,000 lots of soybeans on the day. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.34 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.43, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $316.40, down $8.50; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 36.85, up 237 points.
Corn: The market closed with little change heading into the holiday. Markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and trade will be thin on Friday. The US Energy Dept reported daily ethanol production last week was 1.014 million barrels, down 3,000 bpd on the previous week. South Korea's KOCOPIA are in the market for 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for March shipment. South Africa are forecasting corn plantings up 35% this year following drought reduced sowings a year ago. In Russia, where corn harvesting is ongoing, the Ag Ministry reported things at 78.8% complete for a crop of 13.1 MMT to date. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.50 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.59 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market ended mixed but mostly lower. The Indonesia Ag Ministry is aiming for no corn imports in 2017, as a drive towards achieving self-sufficiency. They could import 35% more feed wheat as a result it is thought. Jordan cancelled their tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat and immediately re-tendered for the same. Bangladesh are said to have agreed to buy 200,000 MT of Russian wheat. Japan bought 20,300 MT of feed wheat of optional origin for December shipment. Rabobank forecast CBOT wheat prices in the final quarter of 2017 at $4.60/bushel. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.01 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.15 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.27 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
EU Rapeseed Smashes Through Key Resistance
23/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed amid a general lack of news. Most noteworthy movement of the day was Paris rapeseed finally smashing through key resistance at EUR400/tonne on front month Feb 17.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was unchanged at GBP138.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR168.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was unchanged at EUR166.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed had gained EUR7.75/tonne to EUR406.00/tonne.
It was April 2014 that we last saw Paris rapeseed close this high. "Rapeseed has been boosted by the surge of veg oils after the decision from US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to raise the biofuels requirements to 19.28 billion gallons for 2017 vs 18.11 this year. This volume will be spread between 15 billion of conventional biofuel which is mainly produced from corn and 4.28 billion of biodiesel produced from soy oil," noted Agritel.
Malaysian palm oil futures touched 4-year highs and US soybean oil prices surged on the news. US markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving.
Otherwise fresh news was generally lacking. Spain said that they'd imported 1.25 MMT of grains in September, a 19% reduction versus the same month in 2015. Wheat imports were 878.8 TMT versus 967.7 TMT a year previously.
Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of feed barley for January shipment. Jordan cancelled their tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat and immediately re-tendered for the same as is their want. Bangladesh are said to have agreed to buy 200,000 MT of Russian wheat.
Russia said that their 2016 grain harvest had limped to 96.4% complete at 123.5 MMT in bunker weight. Wheat accounts for 75.8 MMT of that total and barley a further 19.1 MMT. Harvesting of both is nearly over. Corn harvesting is ongoing at 78.8% complete for a crop of 13.1 MMT to date.
Winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are just about complete in Russia at 99.8% done.
Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's first half 2016/17 (Jul/Dec) grain exports at 20.5 MMT, down 1 MMT on the same period in 2015/16.
Ex-farm prices in the North East of England are now amongst the highest in the country and above the level of London futures, said the HGCA. Strong demand from the bioethanol sector seems to be the reason, they noted.
"However, the potential for further gains could be more limited as the gap between imported maize and UK wheat prices is now narrowing. The wider price gap between the North East and other regions also increases the incentive to haul wheat into the region," they added.
Chicago Soybeans Extend Rally
22/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 10 cents higher. There were no daily soybean export sales, but the USDA did announce 30,000 MT of soybean oil for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year. Brazilian soybeans are said to be 77% planted versus 70% a year ago and 76% on average. The top producing state of Mato Grosso is 95.5% done versus 89.7% a year ago. Parana is 90% complete versus 80% a year ago. Argentine beans lag a little, they are 24.2% sown versus 33% on average and 32% this time last year. Funds were credited with being net buyers of 11,000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.30, up 9 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.38 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $324.90, up $5.20; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.48, down 16 points.
Corn: Corn closed around a cent or so higher. Argentina reported that their corn crop was 40.3% planted versus 37% last year and 48% on average at this time. Ukraine reported that their grain harvest was 94% complete at 60.15 MMT. That includes 79% of this year's corn for a crop of 21.03 MMT so far. Russia said that it's harvest was 96.2% complete at 122.8 MMT, including 12.4 MMT of corn (74.8% harvested). The French corn harvest is just about over with a crop of no more than 12 MMT expected according to Agritel. Funds were credited with buying 5,000 contracts of corn during the session. Weekly US ethanol production data from the US Energy Dept is due tomorrow. Output was just over 1 million/day last week. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.51, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. Despite bumper production this year, Russia's exports are lagging year ago levels. SovEcon lowered its forecast for 2016/17 Russian wheat exports to 29 MMT from 30 MMT previously. This year's Russian wheat harvest is said to be 98.1% complete at 75.8 MMT. India are reported to have been active buying Ukraine wheat lately, booking around 1 MMT in recent weeks. Traders there say that this year's Indian wheat harvest was likely only around 88 MMT versus the official government estimate of 93.5 MMT. Taiwan are in the market for 85,000 MT of US milling wheat for Jan/Feb shipment. Around 10% of the spring wheat crop in Canada is thought likely to be still out in the fields. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.07 1/4, down 3 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.27, up 1/4 cent.
