Chicago Close - Thursday
05/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower on the day. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered the estimated Argentine soybean planted area 300,000 ha to 19.6 million ha. Dr Cordonnier has expressed concern that not all soybean acres will be planted this year due to the rains and flooding. Production there could end up in the 53-55 MMT region rather than the 57 MMT currently predicted by the USDA some are suggesting. Everything looks rosy in Brazil though. One of Brazil’s largest farming groups (Grupo Bom Futuro) said that they expect their soybean yields to come in 10 percent above the previous season. Trade ideas on the Brazilian crop are said to be in the 103-105 MMT area versus the December WASDE forecast of 102 MMT. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 800 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.03 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.12 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $314.40, down $0.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.00, up 2 points.
Corn: Corn closed around a cent or two higher. Weekly US ethanol production came out today, up 15k barrels to nearly 1.04m barrels per day. This was a new record high and the tenth consecutive week that production has been over 1 million barrels/day which was friendly for corn. Taiwan’s MFIG are said to have bought 65 TMT of corn believed to be of US origin for March/April shipment. Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to 23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 650-850 TMT for tomorrow's report. In other news, a potential drier outlook for Brazil over the coming weeks could provide resistance to corn, as this dryness should allow safrinha corn in Brazil to go in 2-3 weeks early. This timing should allow maximum yield potential for this shorter season double crop corn, offsetting potential losses from excessive rain in Argentina, said Water Street Solutions. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.61 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.67 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed with fair gains. Algeria were said to have bought 475 TMT of mixed optional origin wheat, paying around $200/tonne C&F. Jordan, Japan, Morocco and Ethiopia are among others in the market tendering for wheat. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 94.9% complete according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. In Ukraine, temperatures are reaching -20C with insufficient snow cover in some areas, a threat to winter wheat. "Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008," say the HGCA. Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say UkrAgroConsult. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are a modest 200-500 TMT. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.34 1/2, up 8 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.50 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Close - Thursday
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.40/tonne at GBP141.30/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR170.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn ended unchanged at EUR169.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR418.00/tonne.
France reported a 29% drop in exports from the leading port of Rouen in the week ending January 4th, to 53 TMT. That week’s total included 23.45 TMT of soft wheat to Tunisia and 29.5 TMT to Yemen.
Algeria are said to have bought up to 475 TMT of optional origin soft wheat at a around $198-$202/MT C&F.
Russia said that their 2016/17 grain exports were down 3.7% at 19.73 MMT. That includes 15.44 MMT of wheat, 1.83 MMT of barley and 2,32 MMT of corn.
Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to 23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult.
Chicago Grains End Higher
04/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans settled with decent gains after trading at its lowest level since November 18 earlier in the day. Strong global demand is underpinned by a lack of rapeseed. China reportedly sold 97.9 TMT of the 98.5 TMT of state owned rapeseed oil up for auction today. The USDA attache raised their estimate for the Brazilian soy crop 1 MMT to 102 MMT. The USDA crush report released yesterday afternoon indicated November was at 170.7 million bushels compared to 176.0 in October. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.06 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.15 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $315.30, up $7.00; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.98, up 41 points.
Corn: The market finished with net gains of around 4 cents, the 4th consecutive day of positive trade. The weekly USDA Export Sales report is delayed a day because of the holiday shortened week. Taiwan is tendering 40,000-65,000 MT of optional origin corn, including US material. AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure. In Argentina, heavy rainfall is raising fears about that last sowing works, say Agritel. Farmers have sown about 85% of soybeans and 72% of corn, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange. Russia said that they'd exported 2.32 MMT of corn so far this year. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59 3/4, up 4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.65 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat finished with decent gains. That USDA has 44% of Kansas wheat rated good to excellent versus 52% at the end of November. Oklahoma is now only 25% G/E, down from 53% a month ago. This news will likely have prompted some short-covering, even if the trade is relatively relaxed about the global supply and demand situation. Ethiopia are tendering for 720,000 MT of wheat of optional origin. China’s imported wheat auction continues to see little interest, with less than 100 TMT of the offered near 1 MMT sold today. Russia said that they'd exported 15.45 MMT of wheat so far this season. Total grain exports are running nearly 4% lower year-on-year. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/2, up 12 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.44 1/2, up 7 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher
04/01/17 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly firmer on the day. Strength in Chicago soybeans supported rapeseed.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.55/tonne at GBP139.90/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR169.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR174.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR4.25/tonne to EUR419.00/tonne.
Russian and Ukraine exports slowed up to virtual halt last week due to the holiday, with the former shipping out only 24.3 MMT and the latter 40.3 MMT, according to APK Inform Agency.
News out of Russia is scarce as many there observe the extended Russian Orthodox Christmas.
"Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008," say the HGCA. Winter barley is pegged at 0.9 million ha, down from 1 million last year, making for also the smallest winter barley area since 2008, they add.
"Higher oilseed plantings, particularly winter OSR (up 0.2 million ha to 0.9 million ha), are driven by the increasingly favourable relationship of oilseed to grain. That's an increase of 28.5%, which is also likely due to that fact that plantings were hindered by a particularly dry late summer and autumn in 2015.
Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say UkrAgroConsult
AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure.
Chicago Beans Tumble
20/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower on an improved weather outlook in Argentina and bird flu in Asia. Reuters reported that South Korea has culled 20 million birds since the H5N6 virus was first discovered there on November 18. There are also outbreaks in China and Europe too. Malaysia said that it will raise the export tax on palm oil from 6% to 7% starting January 2017. Argentine soybean exports were only 492 TMT in October versus 1.51 MMT a year previously. Jan/Oct exports are down 21% at 9.8 MMT. There were no new USDA sales announced this morning under the daily reporting system. Thin pre-holiday trade will likely add to volatility this week. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.05 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.15 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $308.80, down $3.40; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.06, down 50 points.
Corn: The market closed around 3 cents lower. AgRural estimated Brazil's full season corn crop at 59.9 MMT, up 47% from only 40.7 MMT last year. They see all corn output at 88.3 MMT, up 33%. Vietnam, the third largest importer of U.S DDGs, are said to have suspended intake beginning December 17th due to insect contamination. Bloomberg report that China may expand subsidies to farmers who grow soy, silage and alfalfa rather than corn. Chinese radio says that the government intend to reduce the 2017 corn area by nearly 1.65 million acres (1.8%) in continuing efforts to reduce reserve stocks. Argentina's October corn exports were up 60% at 1.89 MMT. That takes Jan/Oct exports to 21.2 MMT, a 32% hike versus 12 months previously. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.50 1/4, down 3 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.57, down 3 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small losses. Egypt bought 180 TMT of Russian wheat, 120 TMT of Argentine and 60 TMT of Romanian origin in their tender. The Argentine wheat was around $13/tonne FOB under the price paid for Russian material. US wheat was not offered as part of the tender. Taiwan are tendering for 93,000 MT of US wheat. Jordan are in for 25,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Argentina said that they'd exported 369 TMT of wheat in October, up 29% on a year ago. Jan/Oct exports are almost double those of 2015 at 8.2 MMT. Frigid temperatures on the US Plains and Black Sea area keep getting flagged up as a potential worry down the line. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.12 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 3/4, down 1 cent.
Egypt Spreads Wheat Business Around
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP137.10/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR165.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR1.75/tonne to EUR413.50/tonne.
Highlight of the day was the result of the latest Egyptian wheat tender, which saw them spread the business around between Argentina, Romania and Russia,
The latter won the lion's share of the 360,000 MT order, picking up 3 cargoes (180 TMT) worth, followed by 2 cargoes of Argentine wheat (120 TMT) and one (60 TMT) of Romanian origin.
It is interesting to see Argentina, mid-wheat harvest, competing into Egypt despite a significant freight disadvantage.
In other tender news, Jordan cancelled and immediately re-tendered for 25,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat.
Rapeseed prices were lower in line with a reversal in Chicago soybeans following rain in Argentina.
There's some trade concern developing over sub-zero temperatures and a lack of snow cover in the Black Sea area.
Chicago Soybeans Lead Market Lower
19/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on rain in Argentina. BA and La Pampa provinces were said to have received ½ to 1 ½” rains over the weekend, with the prospect of more to follow. Adding to the bearish tone was news that SAFRAS increased its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 106.1 MMT, up 2.6 MMT from October and now 4.1 MMT above the USDA. Crop development is said to be very good. The USDA announced 264,000 MT of soybeans to China announced under the daily reporting system. Weekly export inspections were pretty good at 1.731 MMT, even if they were down 6% from the previous week. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.21 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.32, down 14 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $312.20, down $4.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.56, down 18 points.
Corn: Corn closed around 3 cents easier. Weekly export inspections of 769,008 MT were a bit on the low side of expectations and down 12% from the previous week. The USDA did report 128,000 MT of US corn sold to Japan for delivery in 2016/17 under the daily reporting system though. Argentina has received the much anticipated rains over much of their critical growing acres with more expected this week, easing production fears there. The Russian 2016 harvest is finally wrapping up at 125.8 MMT (97.2% complete), including 15.3 MMT of corn off 89.3% of the planted area. Record production this year is a certainty. They've already increased 2016/17 exports by almost a third over 2015/16 to 2.05 MMT. Ukraine's seaports exported 670.1 TMT of grains last week, of which 442.4 TMT was corn. Agritel say that the Ukraine corn harvest still has around 10% to go, with final production expected at around 26.2 MMT, a 2.9 MMT increase on a year ago. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.53 1/4, down 3 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.60, down 3 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower in line with the rest of the complex. Weekly export inspections of 478,213 MT were in line with expectations. YTD inspections are still up nearly 27% vs. year ago though. Extreme cold in the US Plains and Midwest is still grabbing some attention for US wheat, although the market is very conscious of the global oversupply situation. The EU’s crop monitoring unit, MARS, sees possible frost kill the week beginning December 21. Winter weather there has been relatively mild so far leaving crops vulnerable to a cold snap forecast to see temperatures drop to -4C. Egypt are back in the market tendering for wheat for late Jan shipment. Russia's wheat exports so far this season stand at 14.32 MMT. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Cordoba wheat producers to harvest a record 4 MMT this year, up from 2.7 MMT a year ago. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.05, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher Monday
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.10/tonne at GBP136.15/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR165.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne lower at EUR415.25/tonne.
Similar to a year ago, the relatively mild start to the EU winter means that "the hardening of winter cereals is considerably delayed," the EU Commission's MARS unit said in a report.
"The current situation is delicate, since a cold air intrusion could cause considerable frost-kill damage in the areas characterised by no snow cover and low frost tolerance of winter crops," they said, adding though that "frost kill has been very limited so far."
However, a "significant" cold intrusion is forecast to bring harsh cold to the eastern half of Europe from December 21, they warned.
Egypt tendered for wheat for Jan 20-31 shipment, with the results expected tomorrow.
Russia said that it had exported 18.28 MMT of grains so far this season, a 1.8% decline on year ago levels. That total includes 14.32 MMT of wheat, 1.8 MMT of barley and 2.05 MMT of corn.
The Russian 2016 harvest is finally wrapping up at 125.8 MMT (97.2% complete), including 15.3 MMT of corn off 89.3% of the planted area.
APK Inform reported that Ukraine seaports had exported 670.1 TMT of grains last week, up from 635.2 TMT the previous week. Wheat consisted of 202.4 TMT of that total, corn 442.4 TMT and barley 24.8 TMT.
Agritel say that the Ukraine corn harvest still has around 10% to go, with final production expected at around 26.2 MMT, a 2.9 MMT increase on a year ago.
