Chicago Closing Comments
20/05/11 -- Soybeans: Jul 11 soybeans closed at USD13.80 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.50 1/2, up 1 cent; Jul 11 soybean meal closed at USD360.60, down USD0.80; Jul 11 soybean oil closed at 57.46, unchanged. Beans were up around 40-50c on the week. Crude oil ended around a dollar higher, having traded either side during the session. A firm US dollar was a bit negative for beans, especially in the wake of some pretty disappointing export numbers this past few weeks. More rain is in the forecast for the Midwest next week, which may see some acres get switched into beans, although corn growers will be doing their level best to get their crop in the ground on the "rain makes grain" ethos.
Corn: Jul 11 corn closed at USD7.59 1/2, up 11 1/4 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.66 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents. Old crop July was 77 1/2c higher on the week and Dec up 39 1/2c. Funds bought an estimated 10,000 contracts on the day as the US weather refuses to co-operate. "The 7-day forecast is incredibly wet in the Midwest, with up to 4 inches of rain possible Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio - a major disruption for corn and soybean planting," said Martell Crop Projections. Prices are now back close to contract highs - 7.82 1/4 for July and 6.83 for Dec, as funds regain their appetite for risk. The USDA will report on planting progress Monday night, last week we saw a 23 point increase to 63% complete.
Wheat: Jul 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD8.06 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Jul 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.33 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents; Jul 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.99 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents. Wheat was up around 60c to a dollar a bushel on the week as a whole, so a bit of consolidation ahead of the weekend was maybe due. The US market is faced with the double whammy of far too much rain in the spring wheat states, and far too little in the winter wheat states. Europe's crop seems to be losing potential by the day, and there are even a few little alarm bells ringing over Russia again. "Showers would be welcome now in the Volga and Black Earth region where topsoil is becoming dry with warm spring temperatures and no May rainfall," say Martell Crop Projections.
EU Grains Closing Comments
20/05/11 -- EU grains closed with May London wheat unchanged at GBP205.00/tonne and with new crop Nov up GBP0.50/tonne to GBP194.00/tonne. Nov Paris wheat closed EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR244.75/tonne whilst May12 was down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR247.75/tonne.
It was a relatively quiet end to another torrid week that saw May London wheat finish with overall gains of GBP8.00/tonne and with Nov ending GBP18.75/tonne firmer in just five trading sessions. Nov Paris wheat was EUR19.00/tonne higher on the week.
Scattered showers fell across northern and western parts of the UK Friday afternoon. Central and eastern parts of France also saw some showers, heavy ones in places which are seen moving into Germany across the weekend. That will help those that get the rain, but it looks like plenty will also miss out entirely.
In the UK ex farm levels for new crop feed wheat are now up to around GBP180.00/tonne, with barley at around GBGP170.00/tonne and OSR pushing GBP400.00/tonne off the combine.
Brussels granted 173,000 MT of soft wheat export licences this week, bringing the marketing year to date total to 17.2 MMT, 9.5% up on last season as the pace continues to grind slowly lower.
FranceAgriMer once again raised it's forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU-27 to a new record 12.8 MMT, almost a third higher than last season's record effort. Ending stocks will now come in at 2.2 MMT, they added. That's 35% down on last season's 3.4 MMT.
US wheat continues to struggle with HRW areas on the Plains hot and dry and with spring wheat areas further north soaked and facing up to a further four inches of rain in the next seven days, according to Martell Crop Projections.
It's Not Just Me Then?
20/05/11 -- I'm out for most of the day today, so I thought I'd set up my lovely new sexy Samsung Galaxy S to pick up my emails. Piece of cake you'd have thought. Not so where this ballooning hippy is concerned. It seems that for some reason Virgin Media don't really want you to pick up your emails in this way. So I Googled it and came across this: AAAAaaaaaaaarrrrgggghhh!!!! I couldn't have put it better myself.
Our Man In Romania
20/05/11 -- Here's an update on what's going on in Romania from my eyes and ears man on the ground over there:
Weather seems to be the theme of this week. Essentially Romania has had a very wet in some areas, dry in others, cold (apparently coldest on record for 15 years) spring. Crops were simply not growing on our higher land in the north east as it was plain too cold and too dry and no plants were accessing nitrogen.
Some rainfall in the north of approx 40mm over a 10 day spell fixed that and now its sunny. Crops are now growing at such a rate that growth stages whizz through in hours and certainly a lot faster than our sprayers !!
Crops in general look better in the north than the south. Our wheats in the last few days have started to cheer me up and now range from crap to very good versus previously crap to average. I am hoping the crap will improve. Rape is mixed with half of it really good and half average.
Overall our winter crops look better than last year now albeit they are 2–3 weeks behind.
Most of our sunflower is now in the ground and has emerged well, approx half our corn is in and just emerging. We will finish all seeding in the next 5 days and our spring situation is dramatically better than last year.
Local forecasts show us dry and warm for the next 10 days which should help. Rumours of a dry June and very hot July are around in triplicate but who knows that!
The Early Vibe
20/05/11 -- The overnights are mixed, but mostly a little higher in fairly quiet trade to end the week. NYMEX crude is up a bit too, although still under USD100/barrel.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry are so excited by rising world grain prices that they can hardly contain themselves. Exports will return to a "normal" crash, bang, wallop 19-20 MMT in 2011/12, they say. Wheat will account for 8-9 MMT of that with a further 5-6 MMT coming from barley.
Ukraine's deputy agriculture minister, Mykola Bezugly, forecast the country's grains harvest coming in "significantly higher" than 45 MMT this season, according to Agrimoney yesterday.
The First Minister, Nikolay Prysiazhnyuk, says that it's the government's target to increase production to 80 MMT by 2017.
Western Australia wheat and rapeseed farms got beneficial rain over the past several days, with 0.75 to 1.5 inch totals, that was the heaviest rain in months and enough to kick-start wheat planting in many areas, say Martell Crop Projections.
For WA wheat plantings "the end of June is the general cut-off point, some have gone into early July before but you end up flowering in the heat, which is a bad idea in Australia," says my Australian correspondent.
A return to even average production in WA would almost certainly mean record wheat and rapeseed production Down Under in 2011.
G. Wallace F. McCain, co-founder and Vice Chairman, McCain Foods died this week I hear aged 81, he was a chip off the old block he was. That presents a bit of a dilemma for the family doesn't it? If they bury him he might keep coming back every year, but on the other hand if it's cremation what type of oil are they going to use and will they have him crinkle cut first?
CBOT Close
19/05/11 -- Soybeans: Jul 11 soybeans closed unchanged at USD13.79 1/2; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.49 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 11 soybean meal closed at USD361.40, up USD0.40; Jul 11 soybean oil closed at 57.46, up 16 points. Weekly export sales came in at at a combined 166,232 MT, not exactly stunning, although better than recently - once again though none of those sales were for China. The USDA did however separately announce the sale of 110,000 MT for 2011/12 delivery to China under the daily reporting system, prior to that it's been three of four weeks since they showed up buying anything.
Corn: Jul 11 corn closed at USD7.48 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.62, down 10 3/4 cents. Funds sold an estimated 8,000 contracts on the day, possibly getting out early ahead of the weekend after a secession of up days. Weekly export sales were robust at 843,200 MT for 2010/11 delivery and 308,500 MT for 2011/12. "The corn weather outlook remains very wet for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri with two inches of rain possible in the coming days," say Martell Crop Projections.
Wheat: Jul 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD8.12, down 5 cents; Jul 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.44 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Jul 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD10.06 1/4, up 10 cents. The USDA announced weekly export sales of 126,700 MT of old crop wheat and 672,200 MT for delivery in 2011/2012, a little above trade expectations for combined sales of 450-750,000 MT. "US northern spring wheat areas are forecast to remain extremely wet, meaning that further planting delays certain," say Martell Crop Projections. European weather woes are also taking centre stage.
EU Grains Close
19/05/11 -- EU wheat futures closed higher, although well off session highs, with May London wheat up GBP6.00/tonne to GBP205.00/tonne and with new crop Nov up GBP2.50/tonne to GBP193.50/tonne. Nov Paris wheat rose EUR2.00/tonne to EUR244.00/tonne whilst May12 was EUR2.25/tonne higher at EUR248.00/tonne.
Nov London wheat peaked at GBP199.25/tonne, up GBP8.25/tonne on the day, a fresh lifetime contract high and just short of the magical GBP200.00/tonne mark on early bullish euphoria.
Gains were tempered somewhat later in the day however as NYMEX crude oil fell back below USD100.00/barrel and US futures retreated.
Dryness has undoubtedly harmed EU grain potential in most of the major producing nations, that is beyond question, what we don't know yet is by how much. Private estimates suggest that it may be by far more than the likes of the USDA and Coceral suggest.
Before the bulls get too carried away with high fives all round it should of course be noted that Ensus has opted to take a temporary shutdown rather than continue turning wheat into bioethanol at these levels.
It would also be very interesting to know what is going through the minds of the multi-nationals behind the under-construction Vivergo plant at Saltend right at this moment in time.
Meanwhile inflation here keeps creeping up, rising to a 2 1/2 year high of 4.5% in April, with food and fuel prices leading the way.
The cure for high prices is high prices, they say. I think that we must be wary of demand destruction at these levels.
Temporary Blog Problem
19/05/11 -- There's a temporary problem uploading new posts from my PC so I'm posting this from my mobile. Everything should be back to normal soon. Early call on CBOT meanwhile is beans up 4-6c, corn up 5-7c and wheat up 10-12c.
Problem resolved. For info, as this may be relevant to some of you, out of the blue this afternoon whilst attempting to update the blog Google asked for my mobile number for security purposes. Saying that it was to prevent suspicious postings and would only be used for verification purposes.
So you think, ah well it's Google, it'll be all right. Except it wasn't.
You give them your number and press next (or whatever) and then you're left hung in permanent cyberspace unable to log into Blogger any more, as it's constantly trying to redirect you to a webpage the address of which is becoming increasingly longer by the millisecond. Your browser finally gives up and you get a Google 414 error page.
The way to extricate yourself from permanent cyber limbo is to delete the "lets go round and round in circles forever" cookie that Google have placed on your PC. Except you don't know exactly where it is and have no idea whatsoever what it's called.
Solution is to delete cookies, except deleting all your cookies will probably mean that every website that you use where you by-pass the log-in procedure will now want you to log-in again wont it? Which is at the very least a pain, and possibly more than that if you can't remember your log-in details.
Nogger solution (for IE): Tools > Internet Options > Under browsing history click Settings > View files. A long list of temporary internet files including cookies will appear, they will probably be sorted in the order of "last accessed" but if not click "last accessed" to make them so.
Figure out roughly when your problem started, and give yourself say another hour on top just to be sure, then delete everything from that point down to the bottom of the list. Sorted. Then next time they ask for your mobile number tell them to do one.
