Nogger's Blog

York Races - High Hopes

27/07/13 -- Well, in the two races mentioned at last night's York meeting the first was won by the horse drawn 19 out of 20 and the third race (13 runners) went to the horse drawn 10 with 11 coming second.

Continuing with the same theme, today's big sprint handicap is the 3.30, with the horses drawn highest being the well fancied Khubala (7/1) drawn 17, Rasman (18/1) drawn 18, Regal Parade (33/1) drawn 19 and Secret Witness (20/1) drawn in trap 20.

I'm gonna do Khubala to win under the peoples favourite Frankie Dettori, with an optimistic shoot for the moon 12 x straight forecast bets for the first two to come out of this lot in any order. It's better than doing the lottery anyway.

There's anther sprint handicap later in the card, which only has 7 runners so the draw advantage may not be so pronounced and the odds certainly won't be so large. For what it's worth though the high draws are Hello Beautiful (7/2) drawn 7 and Baytown Kestrel (4/1) drawn 6.

Nearby Chicago Soy/Corn Values Fall Around 10 Percent On The Week

26/07/13 -- Soycomplex: The market closed mixed, with front months lower but new crop higher. After three days of pretty dramatic action today was a relatively calm affair, maybe that suggests that the old crop/new crop realignment has been done? The USDA reported that China had bought 220 TMT of new crop US soybeans. There's talk that China’s Sinograin bought four Brazilian bean cargoes earlier in the week for April/May shipment. Considering that China need to buy 4-5 cargoes/day to hit the USDA target for 2013/14 then this business can hardly be considered anything but a routine event. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows managed money decreasing their net long position by 14,790 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Next week's data will be interesting given the heavy selling also witnessed on Wednesday and Thursday this week. Yesterday's weekly export sales report means that the US now have 102% of the USDA's soymeal sales target on the books for 2012/13, so despite what the futures market might be saying, meal availability will stay tight for a month or two yet. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.49 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.28 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD430.30, down USD17.50; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 43.58, down 23 points. For the week Aug 13 beans nose-dived to the tune of USD1.41 (9.5%), with new crop Nov 13 down 45 1/2 cents (3.6%), Aug 13 meal fell USD52.10 (10.8%) and Aug 13 oil shed 192 points (4.2%).

Corn: Corn was down across the board, Sep 13 has closed lower every day this week, and now trades below USD5/bu for the first time for a front month on CBOT corn since October 2010. After a week like that you'd have maybe expected a bit of consolidation moving into a weekend with the crop in the middle of pollinating, but not today. The US weather outlook remains non threatening. Many Asian buyers are booking Black Sea feed wheat and/or corn in preference to US origin material. South Korea's MFG bought 60 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for Nov shipment today. South Korea's NOFI bought 65 TMT of optional origin (possibly from the Black Sea) corn for Jan shipment. The Philippines bought 100 TMT of optional origin (again possibly Black Sea) feed wheat for Sep/Oct shipment. Malaysia meanwhile is tendering for 120 TMT of optional origin corn for Oct/Dec shipment. US exporters did however announce the sale of 211,328 MT of US corn to unknown, split 8,128 MT old crop and 203,200 MT new crop. Yesterday's weekly export sales were below trade expectations, although cumulative sales do currently stand at 25% of the USDA forecast for the 2013/2014 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 17%. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money increasing their net short position by 46,099 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night, bringing their total net short position to 83,361 contracts. They're thought to have been further net sellers since. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that 93.2% of the Argentine corn crop has now been harvested. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.92, down 4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.76, down 2 3/4 cents. For the week that puts Sep 13 corn 52 cents lower (down 9.6%), with new crop Dec 13 down 24 3/4 cents (4.9%).

Wheat: The wheat market was narrowly mixed. Although the market looks like it would like to go higher corn weakness weighs. Yesterday's weekly export sales were better than trade expectations at 661,400 MT for the current marketing year, and included 177,900 MT to China. This is new non traditional business, and the US is well placed geographically to service this new demand, and they have the quality that China wants. Cumulative US sales stand at 42% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 marketing year, versus a 5 year average of 30% at this time. Egypt are also tentatively back in the market, albeit booking cheap Black Sea wheat, but at least they are taking it off the market. The ongoing Black Sea harvest looks likely to weigh on prices for the next few months at least however. The Ukraine winter wheat harvest is nearing completion at 86% done, and they only grow a very small volume of spring wheat. The Russian harvest however will rumble on for a good while yet at only 25% complete. The French soft wheat harvest is 14% complete. The German wheat harvest is just getting going. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money increasing their net short position in CBOT wheat by 14,401 contracts in the week through to Tuesday night. That brings their total net short position to 48,662 contracts. Any further losses in Chicago values in the weeks ahead may trigger some short-covering. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.50 1/4, up 1 cent; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.91 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.36 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents. For the week that means Chicago wheat lost 14 1/4 cents (2.1%), with Kansas down 13 1/2 cents (1.9%) and Minneapolis down 13 3/4 cents (1.8%).

EU Grains Under Pressure From Cheaper Black Sea Crops

26/07/13 -- EU grains ended the day mixed with maybe just a hint of pre-weekend consolidation going on after another week of prices gradually grinding lower.

On the day both Nov 13 and Jan 14 London wheat closed unchanged at GBP162.75/tonne and GBP164.10/tonne respectively whilst Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR0.75/tonne easier at EUR187.75/tonne. There's no consolidation in sight yet for Paris rapeseed however, with Aug 13 closing EUR5.25/tonne lower at EUR356.75/tonne.

For the week Nov 13 London wheat closed GBP4.75/tonne easier, whilst Nov 13 Paris wheat fell EUR6.50/tonne. Aug 13 Paris rapeseed slumped EUR22.75/tonne versus last Friday.

For a front month in Paris wheat this was a 19-month closing low, and for Paris rapeseed this was a 3-year low. For Nov 13 London wheat this was the lowest close on the weekly chart in almost a year.

Brussels issued 435 TMT of soft wheat export licensed this week (versus 300 TMT last week), talking the 2013/14 marketing year to date total to just over 1 MMT versus 613 TMT this time last year. Unusually, and for the second week running, the volume of barley export licenses issued outweighed those for wheat at 441 TMT bringing the 2013/14 YTD total to 888 TMT compared to 669 TMT a year ago.

Ukraine's ProAgro group said that the country will harvest 2.2 MMT of rapeseed this year, up 76% on last year. Imports will rise 75% to 2.1 MMT, they added. Most of that will come to Europe.

South Korea MFG bought 60 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for Nov shipment. The Philippines bought 100 TMT of optional origin (most likely from the Black Sea) feed wheat for Sep/Oct shipment.

The latter traded at USD260/tonne including freight, which is the equivalent of just under GBP170/tonne, probably equating back to an ex farm price of no more than GBP130/tonne, if that.

The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that as of July 25 Ukraine has harvested 25.33 MMT of grains on 8.67 million hectares, with an average yield of 2.92 MT/ha, 24% higher than a year ago. The winter barley harvest is 99% complete, with winter wheat at 86% done producing 18.55 MMT so far, suggesting final output of around 21 MMT which would be up by a third on last year.

The Russian grain harvest is ongoing at 33.0 MMT off 25% of the planned area. Yields are said to be up 23.7% versus this time a year ago at 2.87 MT/ha. The wheat harvest stands at 27.4 MMT, with yields up 24% at 3.08 MT/ha and the barley harvest at over 3 MMT with yields of 2.47 MT/ha, up 7.4%.

Germany's DBV said yesterday that winter barley yields there this season are highly variable, from up to 15% down on year ago levels to in some cases 20% higher. The recent warm and sunny weather at least means that moisture levels are low in the 12-15% region.

The German winter barley harvest could be over by the weekend, given the forecast for warm and dry conditions to continue through to Sunday, they added. They are forecasting a crop of 7.7 MMT, up 650 TMT on last year.

The French winter barley harvest is also nearing completion, making huge strides this past week advancing from 49% complete to 94% done, according to today's estimates from FranceAgriMer. Winter wheat harvesting is now 14% complete versus 3% a week ago and 20% this time last year.

French crop conditions are little changed, with soft wheat, winter barley and spring barley all declining one percentage point in the good/excellent category to 66%, 65% and 68% respectively. Corn good/excellent conditions were unchanged at 57%. Corn crop development is still severely lagging though, only 12% of the crop is pollinating versus 53% this time last year.

EU Rapemeal Prices Slump Further

26/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply lower for a third day, following steep declines in CBOT soymeal.

Ukraine analysts ProAgro forecast OSR production there to jump 76% to 2.2 MMT this year, with almost the entire crop (2.1 MMT) likely to be exported, and the vast majority of that will be coming to Europe.

Paris rapeseed trades at lifetime contract lows, with Aug 13 at the lowest levels seen for a front month since August 2010.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Chicago Soy Crash Continues For Third Day

25/07/13 -- Soycomplex: At this point it is tempting to just re-post yesterday's market report and simply change the date and see whether anybody can tell the differnce. Soybeans down heavily, with the biggest losses at the front end? Check. Meal locked in limit down? Check. Soybean oil at new lows not seen since October 2010? Check. Heavy fund selling across the board? Check. That's that then. Spec longs are scrambling for the exit, end users seem to have surprised them all by leaving themselves with adequate cover and nothing to buy. And all the time the harvest is drawing closer, and with it the prospect of a record US soybean crop. Aug 13 beans are now at the lowest for a front month since Jun 2012. The run-up to the highs of only a few days ago is said to have unearthed a surprisingly large volume of old crop soybeans on farm for sale. With new crop looming and the huge inverse that we've been seeing lately there's little point carrying old crop much longer, that has flushed physical sellers out at a time when the spec longs also want out ahead of first notice day. Fund selling today was estimated at 9,000 in beans and 7,000 in meal. Over the past two sessions funds are thought likely to have been net sellers of around 20,000 soybean lots and some 11,000 in meal. Aug 13 beans have now slumped USD1.65 in the past three sessions. Weekly export sales today were 128,300 MT of old crop and 665,200 MT of new crop, above trade expectations of a combined 300-650 TMT. Chinese industry analysts forecast China's July soybean imports at a record 7.3876 MMT, but these are then seen falling with August bean imports estimated at 5.6 MMT, September at 4.1 MMT and October at 3.9 MMT. Rumours have been in the market all week of China’s government planning to release 3 MMT of beans from reserves, although China’s Sinograin has denied these reports. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.55 1/4, down 37 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.24, down 32 3/4 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD447.80, down USD20.00; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 43.81, down 45 points.

Corn: The corn market also mirrored yesterday, falling, although not as heavily as soybeans - but also with the heaviest losses again coming in front end old crop Aug 13. That is now 32 1/2 cents below Monday night's close. Weekly export sales were sluggish at negative 27,900 MT on old crop, with sales of 515,900 MT for 2013/2014 delivery which were primarily for unknown destinations (319,800 MT). Trade expectations were for combined sales of 600-950 TMT. Yesterday's disappointing weekly ethanol grind numbers are also ringing in the bull's ears from a demand perspective. New crop Dec 13 corn set a new 2 1/2 year low as the prospect of a huge record US corn crop draws ever nearer. There are reports that the harvest is already underway in parts of Texas and Louisiana. The Commodity Weather Group, a US weather forecasting firm, estimated 2013 U corn yields at 159.5 bu/acre, that's 3 bu/acre ahead of the USDA's current estimate of 156.5 bu/acre and more than 29% up on the 2012 average yield of 123.4 bu/acre. MDA CropCast increased their US corn production estimate from 340.2 MMT last week to 343.1 MMT, a 32% increase on last year "due to improved conditions in the northwestern and eastern belt." Meanwhile US corn is missing out in various Asian tenders, Japan bought 300 TMT of Ukraine and Brazilian corn last week. South Korea's KFA today bought 60 TMT Black Sea origin corn for Jan shipment. South Korea's MFG bought 60 TMT of Black Sea origin corn for Jan shipment, and South Korea's Kocopia rejected all offers in a tender for 70 TMT of optional origin corn for Nov shipment. ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn crop at 23.6 MMT versus 20.9 MMT a year ago. They see Ukraine’s 2013/14 corn exports at a record 15.9 MMT. Indonesia’s Feed Millers Association estimated 2013 corn imports at 2.8 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 2.0 MMT and versus 2012 imports of 1.55 MMT. They said that Indonesia had imported 1.4 MMT of corn during the first half of 2013. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.96, down 12 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.78 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: As with yesterday, wheat remains a follower. There are some bullish fundamentals for wheat, but re-establishing the traditional premium that it has historically commanded over corn isn't going to be an overnight job. Weekly export sales of 661,400 MT were ahead of trade estimates of 400-600 TMT and also included the welcome sight of China as the biggest buyer of the week a (177,900 MT). Today was the last day of the Wheat Quality Council’s US spring wheat tour. They estimated the US 2013 spring wheat yield at 44.9 bu/acre, exactly the same as a year ago and up on the 5 year average of 43.3 bu/acre. South Korea's KFA bought 60 TMT of Black Sea origin wheat for Oct/Nov shipment at USD258.45 C&F from Toepfer. Syria seeks 200 TMT of milling wheat with payment via frozen Syrian cash in EU and Arab banks. ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2013 wheat crop at 20.7 MMT versus 15.8 MMT a year ago. They estimate Ukraine's 2013/14 wheat exports at 8.4 MMT up 29%. Morocco said that they'd harvested a record 5.1 MMT of soft wheat along with a further 1.9 MMT of durum and 2.7 MMT of barley this year. That gives them a net grain harvest of 9.7 MMT, almost double production of 5.1 MMT in 2012, which will clearly limit their import requirements in 2013/14. The Moroccan state buyer is tendering for 160 TMT of soft wheat on the local market. The Saskatchewan government said most of their spring wheat and canola crops are in good to excellent condition. There are some reports that Brazil's 2013/14 wheat crop may have suffered frost damage this week. The Russian grain harvest is around 25% done, with early yields said to be up a similar percentage. How the remaining 75% of the harvest goes will be interesting as there is a widespread belief that the best of the crop is what has been cut so far and that spring sown wheat will yield poorly - in some cases even worse than last year. You never quite know with the Russians though. Are local governments are over-exaggerating losses to increase aid from Moscow? Time will tell. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.49 1/4, down 4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.92 1/4, down 5 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.37 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents.

EU Grain Demise Continues

25/07/13 -- EU wheat closed lower once more on what looks like harvest pressure and seasonal developments. Yet again Paris rapeseed took another slaughtering, falling to the lowest levels for a nearby month since Aug 2010. It's a job to know where this will end, the Aug 13 rapeseed contract expires next week but this total capitulation isn't just confined to the nearby contract, thither months were also sharply lower.

Nov 13 London wheat ended the day GBP1.90/tonne lower at GBP162.25/tonne and with Jan 14 also closing down GBP1.90/tonne at GBP164.10/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat fell EUR1.75/tonne to close at EUR188.50/tonne. Friendless Aug Paris rapeseed ended EUR6.75/tonne easier at EUR362.00/tonne.

This market is virtually friendless, it's as simple as that. These were all the lowest closes for a front month since ages ago, let's just leave it at that.

The Black Sea countries generally have a big harvest and want to dump it onto the world market straight away - as was highlighted by another resounding success for Russian, Ukraine and Romanian wheat in yesterday's Egyptian tender. The average price paid there, including freight, was only around USD1.50/tonne more than the best offer on an FOB basis in France.

Algeria meanwhile were said to have paid around USD273-274/tonne C&F (around GBP178-179/tonne dockside) for November shipment milling wheat yesterday, which is well below the cost of French replacement.

Morocco announced today that they have just finished a 9.7 MMT harvest, up 90% from last year, including a record 5.1 MMT of soft wheat, 1.9 MMT of durum and 2.7 MMT of barley. Imports in 2013/14 are likely to be curtailed accordingly.

The Russian grain harvest is said to be done on almost 25% of the planned area, producing a grain crop of 32.7 MMT so far, with yields up 24% at 2.89 MT/ha. That includes 27.3 MMT of wheat and more than 3 MMT of barley.

The French wheat harvest is said to have progressed into the north of the country, although recent activity has been disrupted by heavy rains and hail in places.

The German winter barley harvest could be more or less done by the weekend. Yields are said to be averaging 6.4 MT/ha, although highly variable. Moisture levels are low at 12-15% due to the recent warm and sunny conditions.

The German Farmers Association say that whilst the winter wheat harvest is also now underway, recent weather conditions mean that there are some quality worries. The wet spring has led to plenty of shallow rooted crops which may not be coping well with the sudden very warm and dry conditions, they said.

Tunisia bought 75 TMT of feed barley at prices around USD260-264/tonne C&F for Aug/Oct shipment.

Syria are tendering for 200 TMT of milling wheat on a humanitarian basis, with payment said to be set to come from assets frozen in EU and Arab bank accounts.

ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2013 wheat crop at 20.7 MMT, up 31% versus 15.8 MMT a year ago. They have Ukraine’s 2013/14 wheat exports at 8.4 MMT, up 29% from a year ago.

Is Anyone Going To York Races Tomorrow Night?

25/07/13 -- There's some sort of Cargill-related do on I understand. For those who haven't got a clue about one end of a horse from another, it may interest you to know that I've spotted a bit of a trend in certain races at York lately.

Specifically, in sprints. Whilst not infallible (Disclaimer: always read the label, horses can run backwards as well as forwards etc) it would be interesting to know this trend wouldn't it? Just in case you fancied a flutter.

Well, I've noticed an inordinate number of recent sprint races have been getting won by horses drawn high, the higher the better. Now in handicaps, which in theory see every horse weighted according to their ability and chance of winning the race, any advantage helps doesn't it? A sprint is a shorter race by definition and thus those with an advantage are more likely to scramble across the line first aided by it, than in longer races where the disadvantaged have more time to make up the lost ground.

It's far more interesting than the grain market this isn't it? And easier to call some might say.

Most of the sprint handicaps at York lately (and many of the non-handicaps too) have been won by horses drawn high. The higher the better. Indeed in some cases, the first two home have been drawn high.

If you don't mind spreading your bets around a little you could get a decent return. Like Jun 15, in a 6-furlong handicap the first two home in an 18 runner race were drawn 18 and 15. The winner paid 16/1, the second 20/1 and the forecast over 300/1. The day before at the same meeting a 19 runner 5-furlong handicap, cut down to 16 by a few non runners, was won by the horse drawn 19 at 11/2 with the 18 horse (20/1) just touched off by 1/2 length from bringing in the forecast, finishing third.

At the last meeting on Jul 12 a 15 runner 5-furlong handicap was won by the horse drawn 13 (at 20/1) with 11 coming second (10/1) for a 200/1 forecast.

Incidentally there were no sprint handicaps on the second day of that meeting, but there were two sprint non-handicaps. Want to know the result? The first, a 9 horse race won by the horse drawn 9 at 16/1. The other, only a five horse race to be fair, was won by the horse drawn 5 at 17/2.

Spooky. Hums the theme from the Twilight Zone....

There are two sprint handicaps to get your teeth into tomorrow, the 6.30 and the 8.30 (conveniently the last race of the day - get out of jail free).

The horses drawn high are...

6.30: Medici Time (drawn 20); Picture Dealer (19); Mount Hollow (18) and Sunraider (17).

8.30: Tumblewind (drawn 13); Bapak Sayang (12) and Dusty Storm (11).

What could possibly go wrong? Why lose money on the wheat market when you can know your fate in the space of a minute at York races?

And don't forget to come back and hit the donate button on Monday morning.

EU Rapemeal Values Slide

25/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are finally showing signs of some long overdue capitulation. A limit down move in nearby Chicago soymeal values last night, and the overnight Globex market also locked in limit down this morning have the market under pressure today. Paris rapeseed futures meanwhile are setting lifetime contract lows on an almost daily basis, with Aug 13 down to levels not seen in a front month since August 2010 today.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: