Nogger's Blog

Chicago Close - Wheat Up, Beans And Corn Down

07/02/11 -- Soybeans

March soybeans closed down 9 cents at USD14.24 1/2; March soymeal fell USD0.80 or to USD382.40; March soyoil ended 57 points lower at 58.41. The Brazilian Oilseed Processors Association ABIOVE increased their Brazilian production forecast to 68.8 MMT, 1.3 MMT higher than the USDA. The latter will issue revised world production estimates on Wednesday. They will also report on US ending stocks, which may be trimmed further from last months estimate of 140 million bushels.

Corn

March corn fell 3 3/4c to USD6.74 3/4; May corn declined 3 1/2c to USD6.85 3/4. Fresh 30-month highs were set in the overnight session, but corn failed to hang onto those gains in the face of light profit-taking ahead of Wednesday's key USDA numbers. That report is seen dropping US corn ending stocks by around 10 million bushels from last month. Weekly export inspections were strong, but funds were estimated to have sold 5,000 contracts on the day.

Wheat

CBOT March wheat ended up 5c at USD8.58 3/4; KCBT March rose 10 3/4c to USD9.53 1/2; MGEX March gained 2 3/4c to USD9.91 1/4. Egypt bought 170,000 MT of soft wheat for March shipment over the weekend, with the business split between the US, Argentina and Australia. A variety of other tenders are in the marketplace this week too, keeping the wheat market bubbling away nicely. The USDA are expected to trim their US wheat ending stocks estimate by around 8-10 million bushels on Wednesday.

EU Wheat Posts Fresh Highs

07/02/11 -- EU wheat closed higher again with Mar London wheat up GBP1.50 to GBP206.50/tonne and new crop Nov GBP3.00 higher at GBP177.50/tonne. Mar Paris wheat rose EUR3.00 to EUR277.75/tonne, with Nov up EUR3.50 to EUR241.75/tonne.

All contracts posted lifetime contract highs today, barring July 12 London wheat and August 12 Paris wheat.

Egypt passed on French wheat in it's weekend tender, booking a cargo each of Australian, Argentine and US grain. There are however plenty of other buyers kicking about with Algeria back in the market again this week. So too are Turkey, shopping for 300,000 MT, along with Bangladesh and Iraq.

Reports suggest that Iran might also be entering the market soon. So as you can see there isn't exactly a shortage of international buying interest around at the moment.

There are still concerns about what America's wheat crop is going to look like when it emerges from winter dormancy. Heavy snow is expected in US hard red winter wheat areas this week where moisture is badly needed, say Martell Crop Projections.

Meanwhile strong warming is on the cards for the North China Plain this week where wheat is coming out of dormancy, with highs topping 60 F. Moisture is badly needed soon here after cold and very dry winter, they add.

In Europe too winter crops are starting to think about breaking dormancy as the weather warms up. Central and northern parts of the UK got a welcome widespread soaking over the weekend after a fairly dry winter thus far.

Early Call On Chicago

07/02/11 -- The overnight grains closed higher with wheat up around 8c, beans 9-10c firmer and corn around 3c higher.

Egypt bought three cargoes of wheat over the weekend, sharing their business around between Australia, Argentina and the US. That would indeed suggest that for now they are buying only "normal" amounts.

News that Algeria is back again tendering for more wheat today is possibly more bullish than news out of Egypt. The Algerians have already bought at least 1.75 MMT of wheat, and possibly more like 2 MMT including durum wheat, in the past four or five weeks.

Iraq, Bangladesh and Turkey have got the chequebook out too, so there's no shortage of wheat buyers even at these levels.

A second cold front is due to hit the US this week, which may damage winter wheat although it also brings with it the chance of a protective snow covering.

If we do finish higher tonight, and that's what the early call is, then we may see a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow on profit-taking ahead of the USDA's Feb WASDE report out on Wednesday. That said, the trade is expecting the USDA to further tighten US ending stocks of corn and soybeans, so it wouldn't be too difficult to envisage the rally to re-extending itself later in the week after those ar out.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4c; beans up 8-10c; wheat up 8-10c.

Eight Ninety Five For A Battered Sausage?

07/02/11 -- Just back from a long weekend away on the lash with the divine MrsN#3. Old romantic that I am I decided to treat her to a cottage by the sea near Whitby, where we met some people from Leeds who were incredulous to report on the price of battered sausages in what is probably Whitby's most famous "fish and chip emporium".

You don't see a lot of battered sausage on MasterChef do you?

"Robert, who's an assistant chef at La Maison d'Paris in Gstaad, has decided to present chef Michel with battered sausage on a bed of mushy pois with a vinegar drizzle and a couple of slices of bread to show off his presentation skills."

Which reminds me of Stacey, who I used to work with and was an ardent vegetarian, who frequently and bizarrely used to break her meat free vows on a Saturday night for the sake of a battered sausage and then hate herself again in the morning.

In the queue at the kebab house at 2am with boyfriend Russ, she'd grab sight of said delicacy and that was it. I could never figure that out, she could flatly refuse a bacon butty or a hot roast beef and onion sarnie quite easily, but show the girl a battered sausage and that was it, she was like putty in your hands.

Dust Anybody?

07/02/11 -- The Ozzies must be wondering what's coming next, Nazi Killer Zombies? They've had drought in the west, floods in the east, Cyclone Yasi and this little rascal which "carried a lot of topsoil from north to south for about 300 km" in Western Australia, according to my chum Down Under, Bill Crabtree, who sent me this picture. You won't spot the ashes in this picture though Bill, they live over here these days.

Chicago Close

04/02/11 -- Soybeans

Mar 11 soybeans closed at USD14.33 1/2, down 2 cents; Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.69, up 3 1/2 cents; Mar 11 soybean meal closed at USD383.20, down USD3.20; Mar 11 soybean oil closed at 58.98, up 20 points. A modest pre-weekend sell off maybe best describes today's action, even so Mar beans still closed the week 35 3/4c higher. Strong demand from China looks set to underpin the market for some time yet, despite South American production estimates trending a little bit higher.

Corn

Mar 11 corn closed at USD6.78 1/2, up 16 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.01 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents. march corn was 34 1/2 cents higher on the week. Most of the action today came late in the session. The US Grains Council says that China will import large volumes of corn this year. The USDA reported two cargoes of corn sold split delivery between China and Japan for both old and new crop. Ideas that the tension in Egypt is easing also helped corn today - they are a large buyer of US corn as well as US wheat.

Wheat

Mar 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD8.53 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Mar 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.42 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Mar 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.88 1/2, down 10 cents. Mar CBOT wheat was 28 cents higher on the week, with Mar Kansas up 30 3/4 cents and Mar MGEX up 27 cents. Traders booked profits ahead of the weekend, wondering what the situation in Egypt might be come Monday. They are back in the market today tendering for "normal" quantities, a cargo each of soft white and soft red winter wheat.

EU Wheat Close

04/02/11 -- EU wheat closed mixed, but mostly lower, with Mar London wheat down GBP1.00 to GBP205.00/tonne and new crop Nov GBP0.95 lower at GBP174.50/tonne. Mar Paris wheat fell EUR1.00 to EUR275.75/tonne, with Nov unchanged to EUR238.25/tonne.

On the week as a whole Mar London wheat was GBP1.75/tonne higher, with Nov rising GBP0.60/tonne. Across the Channel quality wheat fared much better, with Mar Paris wheat rising almost EUR10/tonne on the week, and new crop up almost EUR7.00/tonne.

Brussels issued soft wheat export licences of 346,000 MT this week, a 44% increase on last week. That brings the marketing year to date total 12.6 MMT - a 22% increase on this time last year.

The situation in Egypt seems to have eased slightly, which may mean that work at the ports may return to normal before long.

Bangladesh became the latest nation to say that the will step up the size of their wheat (and rice) purchases in the coming weeks and months, in an effort to maintain their food security.

All eyes will soon be on America and how it's wheat crop emerges from winter dormancy. The signs at this stage aren't very promising, with potentially a larger percentage than normal being given over to grazing or ripped up and replanted with something else come the spring.

CBOT Close

03/02/11 -- Soybeans

Mar 11 soybeans closed at USD14.35 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents; Mar 11soybean meal closed at USD386.40, down USD0.50; Mar 11 soybean oil closed at 58.78, down 47 points. Bean export sales were monster at over 4 MMT (1 MMT of which was old crop) with almost all of that total going to China. Sales of 1 MMT of old crop beans will further tighten the 2010/11 end stocks balance. With 7 months left in the marketing year – weekly sale need only average 6.4 million bushels to meet current USDA estimates. Today’s sales were 37.9 million.

Corn

Mar 11 corn closed at USD6.62 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD5.88 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents. Funds were said to have sold an estimated 7,000 to 8.000 contracts on the day. Weekly export sales from the USDA came in at 1.236 MMT against expectations of 450-700 TMT. Sales for 2010/11 were a marketing year high at 1,166,700 MT. Year to date sales are now running at 59% of the year to date total.

Wheat

CBOT March wheat slipped 4c to USD8.59/bushel; KCBT March wheat lost 3 3/4c to USD9.49; MGEX March wheat fell 11 3/4c to USD9.98 1/2. Weekly export sales from the USDA came in at 565,400 MT for wheat - well below expectations for sales of 800 TMT-1.1 MMT. Egyptian worries are enough to cast a shroud of uncertainty over the market. In the US temperatures will warm up in hard red winter wheat, making a less threatening forecast for the week ahead, say Martell Crop Projections.

EU Wheat Close

03/02/11 -- EU wheat futures closed mostly higher with Mar London wheat GBP0.50 higher at GBP206.00/tonne, and Nov up GBP1.20 to GBP175.45/tonne. Paris wheat closed with Mar up EUR2.75 to EUR275.75/tonne and Nov climbing EUR3.25 to EUR238.25/tonne.

It was another decent performance from London wheat, which was trading lower mid-afternoon after Chicago opened, in the wake of the pound rising above 1.62 against the dollar and trading up to 1.1850 against the euro.

The situation in Egypt seems to be going from bad to worse, with the country rapidly grinding to a halt. The ports are shut, and although the authorities say that this will only be for a day or two, we don't really know how much longer they will be the authorities.

The USDA announced quite disappointing weekly export sales under the circumstances, at 565,400 MT that was well below expectations for sales of 800 TMT-1.1 MMT. Despite their problems Egypt accounted for 140,200 MT of that total.

Brussels issued soft wheat export licences of 346,000 MT this week, up 60% on last week's total of 240,000 MT.

After a largely dry week or two, welcome heavy rain is sweeping into Ireland and the UK over the next couple of days. That might help new crop wheat here, the question is will we have enough old crop left to last us through until then?

Elsewhere in Europe "an expanding area of dryness in central France is a growing worry, most of continent is dry in the 7-day forecast," say Martell Crop Projections.

EU Rapemeal Prices

03/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal.

Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Early Call On Chicago - Monster Export Sales To China

03/02/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower, retreating slightly from recent highs on profit-taking, although the bull trend remains firmly intact.

Beans closed the Globex session with mostly just nominal losses of a cent or so, corn closed around 2-3c easier with wheat retreating 5-7c.

Weekly export sales from the USDA came in at 565,400 MT for wheat - well below expectations for sales of 800 TMT-1.1 MMT. Sales for corn were robust at 1.236 MMT against expectations of 450-700 TMT. Bean sales were monster at over 4 MMT (1 MMT of which was old crop) with almost all of that total going to China.

Sales of 1 MMT of old crop beans will further tighten the 2010/11 end stocks balance.

Unrest continues on Egypt, with port operations severely disrupted. Security and lack of labour are two of the main concerns, with customs clearance also affected.

Concern also seems to be mounting over the state of the US wheat crop, particularly in the top producing state of Kansas which was rated 37% poor/very poor, 36% fair, and only 27% good/excellent as of Jan 30th.

Weather conditions in Argentina have improved considerably, prompting various forecasters to up or at least maintain their production estimates in the past few days.

Striking dockers are expected to be back to work today too. But let's face it, it's probably a case of when rather than if it all blows up again there.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans flat, corn down 1-3c, wheat down 5-7c.

Chicago Closing Comments

02/02/11 -- Soybeans

March beans settled 6 cents higher at USD14.44 a bushel; March soymeal traded USD3.10 lower at USD386.90; March soyoil ended 53 points higher at 59.25. China underlined robust demand for US soybeans by buying 440,000 MT of new crop overnight, even though they are on holiday. A much improved weather outlook for Argentina beans was however bearish, although on-off strikes there may continue to push export interest the way of the US. Private analyst Michael Cordonnier and Oil World both raised their Argentine and Brazilian soybean production estimates this week on the back of improved rains.

Corn

March corn ends up 3 1/4c at USD6.69 1/4 a bushel; May corn ended up 3 1/4c at USD6.79 3/4 a bushel. Private analysts Newedge USA forecast 2011 US corn plantings at 91.5 million acres, up 3.3 million from 2010. Informa Economics left their Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 21 MMT, with Brazilian output also static at 53.2 MMT. South American analyst Michael Cordonnier left both his Argentine and Brazilian corn estimates unchanged at 19.5 MMT and 50 MMT respectively. Crude oil was fully steady, also lending support, as too was weaker US dollar.

Wheat

CBOT March wheat climbed 27 1/4c to close at USD8.63/bushel; KCBT March rose 28 3/4c to USD9.52 3/4; MGEX March climbed 29 1/4c to USD10.10 1/4. Wheat set contract highs on protective snow coverage missing large parts of the HRW wheat belt in HRW wheat in KS, OK and TX. Egyptian concerns, drought in China and the impending damage from Cyclone Yasi in Australia also added to trader's worries. In short, nobody wants to be short of wheat on this market. EU stock tightness, Argentina's viability as a reliable supplier and Australia's woes don't leave too many shops left open if you want quality wheat this spring.

EU Wheat Close

02/02/11 -- EU wheat closed sharply higher with Mar London wheat up GBP2.85 to GBP205.50/tonne and new crop Nov GBP2.25 higher at GBP174.25/tonne. Mar Paris wheat rose EUR4.00 to EUR273.00/tonne, with Nov up EUR3.50 to EUR235.00/tonne.

It was a record high close for old crop wheat for both London and Paris on continued uncertainty on the international grain markets.

Demonstrators are still on the streets of Egypt, an enormous cyclone is heading for Australia, a severe winter storm is gripping the US Midwest and northern China is bone dry.

Wheat prices may have been even higher were it not for a firm euro and sterling.

Elsewhere, Russian wheat is dormant under thick snow in the Volga, Black Earth region. Winter precipitation has been generous, boosting prospects for new crop wheat. The southern Black Sea area has been too dry this winter, although showers possible in coming week, according to Martell Crop Projections.

Striking Argentine dock workers may resume work under a under compulsory conciliation order, according to media reports.

Tomorrow all eyes will be on export licence numbers from Brussels for the past week and weekly export sales from the USDA.

Argentine Rains A Game Changer For Soybeans

02/02/11 -- Reproduced by kind permission of my chums at the excellent Martell Crop Projections:

Drenching January rainfall in Argentina significantly improves the outlook for late planted soybeans that fill pods in February-March. It was enough rain to completely restore topsoil moisture. The January rainfall map now is wetter than normal in Cordoba and Santa Fe, key soybean provinces, following 4-5 inches of rainfall last weekend.

The recuperative powers of soybeans are well documented in the United States Midwest. If heavy rain arrives in time for pod setting and filling, soybean yields increase even if very dry conditions existed previously. Pod setting and filling is the period when yields are made or lost. Very heavy rain increases both the number and size of soybeans in the pod. In the Midwest this critical stage is in August. For Argentina February-March is the rain-sensitive period.

Included in this report (you'll have to subscribe using the link above if you want to see it - Nogger) is proof of Iowa soybeans responding to heavy late-summer rain, while corn floundered. The year was 1977. Conditions had been extremely dry May- July, damaging corn beyond repair. The corn yield finished 11% below trend. Soybeans rebounded making a productive yield 3% above trend. August rainfall was 7.8 inches and 195% of normal.

Slower than normal Argentina soybean planting rates may prove to be a blessing. Forty percent of beans were sown after December 1, based on Ministry and Agriculture reports. These late planted soybeans would bloom in February. Pods are “set” 10-12 days after blooms develop. This is followed by 30-40 days of seed filling. The message: There is still a lot of time left for late developing soybeans to improve, if heavy rain continues.

Drenching rainfall is Cordoba and Santa Fe over the weekend was preceded by drought-breaking rainfall in Buenos Aires province two weeks prior. We get the impression the weather pattern is changing. The sudden changeover toward wetness may be linked to a weakening La Nina. Drought is very typical with La Nina in Argentina. This country is one of the more sensitive areas where weather responds strongly the ENSO fluctuation. Last year with El Nino, conditions were extremely wet, causing concerns over disease in soybeans.

Warming sea temperatures developed at the same time in the sentinel eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, signifying a weakening La Nina. What we do not know is whether this is a short-term fluctuation or the beginning of La Nina’s demise. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology suggests the La Nina may continue throughout calendar year 2011. Should this be the case drought may resume in the Argentina grain belt.

Early Call On Chicago

02/02/11 -- The overnight grains closed higher, with wheat leading the way up around 12-14c. Beans were around 6-8c higher and corn up 5c or so.

Outside markets are all lending support to grains, with metals, sugar and crude oil all hitting multi-year, if not record, highs.

The dock workers strike in Argentina may drag on and off for some time yet in shades reminiscent of a couple of years ago. Unlike then, now we only have one of the Kirchners in control, and she is seen firmly digging her six inch stiletto heels in for fear of showing any signs of weakness.

Her presidency is already on very shaky ground, and there are elections due in October.

Breaking news suggests that the workers will call off their strike following a government order making the action unlawful. It seems highly unlikely to me that this will be the last word on the matter. Certainly against this kind of backdrop Argentina is not going to be topping may people's "preferred seller of choice" list.

That potentially pushes more interest they way of the US.

To add further unease to the markets we have the ongoing Egyptian unrest, a severe winter storm in the US and now a massive cyclone almost the size of America heading for Australia. On top of that it's hardly rained in Northern China since September.

Effectively all this is creating a huge cocktail of uncertainty and nervousness. The dollar is weaker too, helping propel overnight corn and beans to 30-month highs.

Despite New Year celebrations China has bought 440,000 MT of US beans overnight, according to the USDA.

The wintry conditions in the US will delay the opening of CBOT pit trading until 10 am local time, or 4 pm here in the UK I understand. So trade could be a bit thin.

Informa are out at 10.30 am local time with revised world crop production numbers.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 7 to 9 cent, corn up 4 to 6 cents and wheat up 13 to 15 cents

EU Rapemeal Prices

02/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal.

Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Here's Yasi!

02/02/11 -- Currently bearing down on the coast of Queensland is Cyclone Yasi. The power of which could apparently power the world for a year. It is Australia's biggest cyclone ever & close to the level of Hurricane Katrina, and we all know what damage that did.

If you want to know exactly how big it is, click here

A Quick Look Around The Markets

02/02/11 -- The morning headlines make interesting reading today:

• Corn and soybeans hit 30-month highs


• Copper hits record high in London trading


• Nickel trades at highest highest since May 2008


• Palm oil reaches 35-month high as La Nina to persist


• Sugar hits 30-month highs in New York as Cyclone Yasi nears


• Oil trades near 28-month high on Egyptian concerns


• Tin hits record highs


• Commodity prices off the chart


• Freight rates slump to two-year low

Pound Climbs On Rate Outlook

02/02/11 -- The pound has climbed to it's best levels in almost three months, and close to a one year high against the dollar this morning on renewed ideas that an interest rate hike might be on the cards by mid-2011.

News out yesterday that British manufacturing grew at the fastest pace on record in January surprised the market, so too did construction data out this morning.

Meanwhile the spectre of rising inflation is still lurking in the background. BoE Deputy Mr Bean has added to arch-hawk Andrew Sentance's stance, saying that further rises in commodity prices and inflation might eventually force the MCP's hand into raising interest rates.

Meanwhile in the States the mixture of a Democrat controlled Senate and a Republican controlled House of Representatives could make a concerted effort on tackling US government debt (currently USD14 trillion and rising) rather tricky to push through.

The US looks set to hit it's statutorily imposed debt limit of USD14.3 trillion pretty soon. When it does it either needs to raise that ceiling even higher or introduce some painful spending cuts and austerity measures of its own. Cue much squabbling and back-stabbing and an ensuing period of dollar-bashing.

Is The Weather Having A Laugh?

02/02/11 -- Still reeling from extreme flooding, Cyclone Yasi is expected to make landfall in Queensland later today. Described as a "monster, killer storm" by Queensland premier Anna Bligh, Yasi has been upgraded to the highest level category five overnight.

The state's sugar cane crop is seen most at risk amongst agri-commodities, and Queensland accounts for around 90% of the national total output. Mining is also under further threat, with copper and tin prices surging to record highs overnight.

Meanwhile how they could do with a drop of rain on the North China Plain, where around 75% of the nation's wheat is grown. The provinces of Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Shanxi and Jiangsu have seen no significant rains at all in the October/January period.

Hebei Province has received just 2mm of rain since November and Shandong upped it's drought alert to the highest level last Thursday.

Chicago Close

01/02/11 -- Soybeans

March soybeans settled 25 cents higher at USD14.38 a bushel; March soymeal climbed USD9.70 to USD390.00; March soyoil ended 84 points higher at 58.72. Beans hit 2 1/2 year highs and private exporters announced the sale of 110,000 MT of soybeans to "unknown" destinations. Strikes at the Argentine port of Rosario are likely to disrupt soybean supplies from the region.

Corn

March corn rose 6 1/2c to USD6.66/bushel; Mary corn also jumped 6 1/2c to USD6.76 1/4 a bushel. Private exporters reported the sale of 120,000 MT of corn for 2010/11 delivery to "unknown". Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 6,000 to 7,000 corn contracts on the day. The weather outlook in Argentina is improving, but some damage to corn may already be irreversible.

Wheat

CBOT March wheat fell 5c to USD8.35 3/4 a bushel; KCBT March wheat declined 3/4c to USD9.24; MGEX March wheat rose 1 1/4c to USD9.81. Once again premium quality wheat gained on lower grades. US winter wheat ratings continue to decline, a severe winter storm heading into the Great Plains may cause further damage and disruptions. More US winter wheat than normal may get ripped up and replanted with corn or soybeans this spring is the word on the streets.

EU Wheat Close

01/02/11 -- EU wheat closed mixed, but mostly lower, with Mar London wheat down GBP0.45 to GBP202.65/tonne and new crop Nov GBP0.60 lower at GBP172.00/tonne. Mar Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR269.00/tonne, with Nov down EUR1.50 to EUR231.50/tonne.

Egyptian uncertainty clouds the market, media reports suggest that all major ports there are closed for the time being. The Suez is open, but traffic along it is starting to slow.

Jordan bought 100,000 MT each of wheat and barley in a tender. Chicago soybeans hit fresh 2 1/2 year highs. A strong performance from both the euro and sterling capped gains today however.

Argentine port strikes are ongoing, disrupting nearby supplies of beans, corn and wheat. So too is a severe winter storm currently hitting the US Plains, "bitter cold will occur again tonight in HRW wheat," say Martell Crop Projections.

Wheat in the North China Plain remains under threat from a winter drought which has brought little rain since September.

Russia are set to begin auctioning off 5-6 MMT of intervention grain on Friday. Ukraine say that they expect to review their own export quota system later this month.

World Crop Weather Highlights

01/02/11 -- World agri-weather highlights from the excellent Martell Crop Projections:

• Overnight storm precipitation developed mostly east of US hard red winter wheat; zero F temperatures invading the Great Plains; wheat is exposed; bitter cold will occur again tonight, Wednesday night in HRW wheat


• Good rain in Mato Grosso yesterday, welcome with extreme heat; highs in the mid 90s F Monday; drought persisting East BZ soy states Goias, Minas Gerais; South Brazil soy states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul expecting heavy rain


• More beneficial rain yesterday in northern Argentina; this follows 3-4 inches in Cordoba Sunday; drought resolving in nothern grain belt, usually plagued by drought with La Nina; temperatures trending cooler and favourable for crops


• Dry weather in continental Europe with cold high pressure in control; winter wheat and rapeseed dormant again; dry January occurred in many areas following wet December on continent


• Australian heat wave continued yesterday, highs 105-108 F in Victoria, near 100 F southern New South Wales; sharply cooling, heavy rain in forecast, 5-10 inches in recurring thunderstorms in southern NSW; talk about weather extremes!


• China forecast includes chance for light-moderate rain in winter wheat Anhwei, Henan provinces; no important precip received October-January; cool winter temps a help, lowering evaporation; strong warming may bring wheat out of dormancy


• Scattered showers predicted in Afghanistan may not reach Pakistan; winter wheat in serious drought; hot temps would stress wheat further; warm-up also unfavorable for west India winter crops rapeseed and wheat


• Russia winter wheat dormant with cold temps; scattered precip, light snow keeps coming to Black Earth, Volga; Russia Black Sea wheat struggling in dry winter; Turkey wheat got heavy beneficial rain past 7 days

Harbro Coining It In

01/02/11 -- Almost twelve months to the day after deciding to place an ad on Nogger's Blog, Scotland's leading feed manufacturer reports pe-tax profits up a Loch Ness Monster 73% for the year ended 30th June 2010. Coincidence, or canny "we know a bargain when we see one" Jock thriftiness? I know where my money is going.

Group turnover was up GBP3 million to just over GBP68 million, in that funny money that they use up there, with pre-tax profit at GBP1.9 million.

EU Rapemeal Prices

01/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal.

Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Ooops

01/02/11 -- It's not often that I feel sorry for a Liverpool fan, so I'm not going to start now, but Lordy Lordy what was he thinking of? Can you hear the guns Fernando? They're for you, you want shooting man.