EU Grains Mostly Higher In Quiet Trade
28/04/16 -- EU grains traded mostly firmer Thursday, with May 16 London wheat unchanged at GBP106.60/tonne, May Paris wheat was EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR153.00/tonne, June corn was up EUR2.25/tonne to EUR165.00/tonne and May 16 rapeseed closed EUR1.75/tonne weaker at EUR367.25tonne.
Brussels issued export certificates for 599 000 MT of wheat during last week. Barely licences were a pleasing 174 000 MT.
Russia's Ag Min said that they'd exported 22 MMT of wheat so far this season (out of a 62 MMT harvest), and increased it's forecast for full season exports estimate to a record 24-25 MMT.
Saudi Arabia has announced a tended or 550,000 MT of 12.5% hard wheat for Jul/Aug delivery with the results expected over the weekend.
Activity is light ahead of Monday's Bank Holiday, with some trader's already away from their desks.
Chicago Close - Wednesday
27/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans recovered from early losses on continued South American production uncertainty and strong US export sales. With the likes of the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange slashing their production estimate down to 56 MMT it should be remembered however that similar "excess rain/flooding" talk in both of the last two years failed to ultimately make too much of a bearish dent into final yields. It's enough too keep the market jittery heading into the beginning if the US planting season, given the size of the fund short on beans though. The USDA announced 393,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to unknown destinations this morning, with 350,000 for 2015/16 delivery. That can't be argues with. The trade expects tomorrow’s weekly export sales for old crop beans at 400,000 to 600,000 MT. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.19, up 1 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.28 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $325.20, up $1.90; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.62, down 32 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents higher, helped by beans. Weekly ethanol production was 927,000 barrels per day last week, some 12,000 bpd down on the previous week. Ethanol stocks on April 22 were 21.6 million barrels; down 1.8% from the previous week. South Africa cut its 2015/16 production forecast for the third time this season, but at at 7.05 MMT it's still more than 0.5 MMT above the USDA: 6.5 MMT. In March Ukraine exported 2.427 MMT of corn, which is 32% greater than the volume of exports in March 2015 (1.836 MMT), according to UkrAgroConsult. Ukraine said that planting of it's 2016/17 corn crop was now almost halfway done. Trdae estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 900,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. May 16 Corn settled at $3.80 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.84 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. There's only so much support fund short money can offer when US prices are substantially more expensive the the rest of the world market. Ukraine exported a record 2.7 MMT of grains in April, And said that they'd exported 33.3 MMT of grains so far this season, including 15 MMT of corn, 15 MMT of wheat and 4.1 MMT of barley. ProZerno estimated Russian 2016 grain production 0.6% higher than last year at 105.46 MMT. Wheat could account for almost 61 MMT of that, they say. The medium term weather forecast for Australia is calling for "abundant, above seasonal norms, rainfall from May to July," Reuters report. That's slap bang in the middle of planting. Weekly export sales for tomorrow are only expected to be 75-200 TMT on old crop. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.74 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.64, down 2 1/4 cents;May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.33 1/2, down 1/2 cent.
Ukraine Exports Record Volumes, Spring Sowings Well Advanced
27/04/16 -- EU grains mixed, with front month May 16 London wheat unchanged at GBP104.65/tonne, May 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR151.25/tonne, June corn rose EUR2.00/tonne to EUR162.25/tonne and May 16 rapeseed closed EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR369.00/tonne.
May 16 rapeseed goes off the board on Friday, so could display some choppy trade ahead of that. Despite expiry being only a few days away, open interest in May 16 is still the largest of all the Paris rapeseed contracts.
Early spring grin plantings in Ukraine are just about done at 99% complete, according to the AG Ministry there. Spring barley sowing is complete on 98% of the government forecast at 1.78 million ha.
Oilseeds and corn are excluded from early spring grain figures. In Ukraine corn plantings are estimated 49% complete so far 92.24 million ha), with sunseed 55% planted (2.859 million ha) and soybeans 25% (502 million ha) sown.
In March Ukraine exported 2.427 MMT of corn, which is 32% greater than the volume of exports in March 2015 (1.836 MMT), according to UkrAgroConsult.
Ukraine exported a record 2.7 MMT of grains in April, And said that they'd exported 33.3 MMT of grains so far this season, including 15 MMT of corn, 15 MMT of wheat and 4.1 MMT of barley. The barley campaign is just about over for 2015/16.
Concerns still linger over Ukraine's production prospects for this year though. "Dry conditions during the sowing period and frost kill in January, drastically impacted winter crops in both Ukraine (and Poland). Despite favourable conditions since the beginning of March it looks like winter crops have had very little regrowth," the HGCA reported MARS as saying yesterday.
That doesn't seem to be the case in Russia though, where ProZerno estimate 2016 grain production 0.6% higher than last year at 105.46 MMT. Wheat could account for almost 61 MMT of that, they say.
Morocco announced that it will maintain its import taxes on wheat of up to 30% until the end of the year. The move comes despite a poor harvest leading to an anticipate jump in import needs in 2016/17.
Soybeans Jump As Argentine Production Estimates Slashed
26/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with strong gains to finish back up above £10/bu. Dr Cordonnier cut his ideas of Argentine soybean prospects by a further 2.0 MMT from last week to 57.0 MMT. The rapid decline of the Argentine crop has taken a few buy surprise, should it come to fruition, woth 59-60 MMT being the norm just a could of weeks ago. Funds were estimated buyers of 14,000 soybean contracts on the day. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.17 3/4, up 18 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27 1/4, up 17 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $323.30, up $6.90; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.94, up 4 points.
Corn: The market closed around 5-6 cents higher. Chinese customs data showed ethanol imports more than doubling in March from February, with nearly all of that comng from the United States. Firmer beans and an improved Chinese economic outlook are supportive to corn. So too are weather conditions in South America and the news that Brazil is to temporarily allow corn imports duty free from outside the Mercosur trade black. Funds were estimated buyers of 8,000 contracts in corn. May 16 Corn settled at $3.82 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.87 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market stronger, led by Chicago which is where the bulk of the fund short money is. "The strength in wheat has been in defiance of the higher (US) crop condition ratings, said one markket commentator. According to the EU's MARS yield potential for EU winter wheat and barley is up from a month ago. ProZerno say the Russia will end up exporting a record volume of wheat and corn this season. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.87 3/4, up 10 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.78, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.42 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Mixed, Could France Be Set For Second Record Wheat Crop In A Row?
26/04/16 -- EU grains closed mixed. with front month May 16 London wheat was down GBP0.60/tonne at GBP104.65/tonne, May 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR151.75/tonne, Jun 16 corn was up EUR1.15/tonne to EUR161.75/tonne and May 16 rapeseed tumbled EUR2.75/tonne at EUR372.00/tonne.
According MARS, the European crop monitoring service, winter crop conditions in Europe are improving. They rated winter wheat yield potential in 2016 at 6.11 MT/ha versus 5.96 MT/ha seen last month. For winter barley, yields have been upgraded to 5.97 MT/ha vs 5.82 MT/ha and for rapeseed to 3.35 MT/ha vs 3.31 Mt/ha.
Potential corn yields were lowered from 7.12 MT/ha to 7.06 MT/ha however.
"Crop growth conditions have been good in most regions of Europe," Mars said.
"In most regions, weather conditions have been favourable for winter crop growth and spring sowings," Mars said.
"In general, the current prospects for EU-28 yields are above the five-year average, and the forecast for total cereals has increased compared to our last bulletin, reflecting the generally good growth conditions".
France is said to be "benefiting from good conditions," with above-trend yields expected. Note that French growers have planted an 80-year high winter wheat area, and current crop conditions are ahead of a year ago when a record crop was brought in.
USDA Says US Corn Already 30% Planted
25/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, and as close to $10 as you can get without actually being there, on front month May. Weekly export inspections of 279,310 MT were around market ideas. After the close the USDA put US 2016 soybean plantings at 3% complete, again in line with trade forecasts. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.99 3/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.09 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $316.40, up $4.70; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.90, down 9 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with fair gains. Weekly export inspections of 1.137 MMT were in line with trade ideas and pretty strong. Talk that Brazil will waste no time taking advantage of the reduced import tax on corn from outside the Mercosur trade bloc leans friendly. After the close the USDA said tha 30% of the US 2016 corn crop was already sown as on Sunday night, well ahead of the five year average of 16% and at the high end of pre-report expectations. They also said that that 5% of the national crop was emerged, 1 point ahead of the average pace. May 16 Corn settled at $3.77, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.81 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains. Weekly export inspections of 406,164 MT were fairly good as wheat goes. The USDA said that 26% of the winter crop was headed as of Sunday night, up 14 points from the week before, and 2 points ahead of the previous five year average. Winter wheat crop ratings were raised 1 point to 57% good to excellent, and up from 42% this time a year ago. Spring wheat planting progress reached 42% complete, up 14 points from the five year average. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.77 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.73 3/4, up 1/4 cent; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.37 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Close Monday
25/04/16 -- EU grains traded mostly firmer to start the week, with May 16 London wheat bucking the trend, closing GBP0.25/tonne lower at GBP105.25/tonne, May Paris wheat was EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR152.25/tonne, June corn was up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR15850/tonne and rapeseed closed EUR0.5/tonne higher at EUR374.75tonne.
The latter goes off the board on Friday when new crop Aug 16 will become the new front month.
The USDA's office in Moscow said that Russia may harvest 101 MMT of grains this year, including 58 MMT of wheat, 18 MMT of barkey and 12.5 MMT of corn.
All would be a little below the levels produced in 2015. Exports might fall 1.4 MMT to 30.2 MMT in 2016/17, it is predicted, but still at historically high levels.
They peg wheat exports at 22 MMT (-1 MMT%), with those for barley at 4.0 MMT (-0.2 MMT) and corn at 3.5 MMT (-0.3 MMT).
Russian seaports only exported 250 TMT of grains last week, down sharply from 456 TMT the previous week. Wheat shipments totalled 176 TMT, corn exports 46 TMT and those for barley were 25 TMT.
Ukraine's exports via seaports also dropped, down from 662 TMT to 414 TMT, including 243 TMT of wheat, 160 TMT of corn and 117 TMT of barley.
