Chicago Soybeans Stealing The Show
02/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal surged to fresh highs for the move. are looking for USDA weekly Export Sales to be 600,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for soybeans, with meal between 150,000 and 300,000 MT for both marketing years combined in tomorrow's one day delayed export dales report. The Buenos Aires Exchange Grain Exchange say that the Argentine soybean harvest is 78.7% complete. That is 14.8% slower than this time last year. That, and production/quality fears over what had been cut are the reason for this rally. "Santa Fe and Cordoba were hit with 10-16 inches of rainfall in April, amounting to 3-4 times the average," say Martell Crop Projections. US plantings are going week at this early stage. I Therefor find it difficult to buy into this long-term. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.44 1/4, up 44 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.77 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $418.30, up $19.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.26, up 7 points.
Corn: The market closed narrowly mixed, seemingly not buying into the reasons given for soybean firmness. The US Energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production at 960,000 barrels per day, up 14 bpd from last week. The Buenos Aires Exchange Grain Exchange say that the Argentine corn harvested is 3003% complete. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be in the region of 1.0 to 1.5 MMT. The FAO estimated world corn harvest in 2016/17 at 1.208 million tonnes, up from 971 MMT in 2015/16. Ending stocks for both marketing years were forecast at 205 MMT. "In the US, planting is almost complete and conditions are favourable throughout the primary growing regions," they said. In the EU, conditions are favourable, although some planting delays occurred due to cold and wet conditions," they added. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.15 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.15 3/4, up 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market ended higher as renewed concerns over protein content and rain delays in areas of the western Plains came back to the fore. Apart from that the fundamentals are unchanged. The FAO estimated world wheat production at 924 MMT, up 5 MMT from 20151/6. They see stocks rising from 195 MMT To 216 MMT however. This is a 15-year high following sharp upward revisions, mostly to inventories in China but also EU and the Russian Federation," they added. Weekly export sales for tor tomorrow US report are forecast at just 100,000 to 550,000 MT. EU export licences are now only 3% down on where they were a year ago. Russian and Ukraine grain exports are running at record levels. French wheat might not quite match least year's harvest, but will be large nevertheless, and ending stocks are also high. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.85 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.64 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.28 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Steadier As Exports Stay Strong
02/06/16 -- EU grains mostly higher happy to follow firmer US market
Front month Jul 16 London wheat closed up GBP0.85/tonne at GBP106.75/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR167.75/tonne, June corn closed EUR2.75/tonne higher at EUR178.25/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR4.50/tonne firmer at EUR37.725/tonne.
Good second half season wheat exports are cutting ending stocks estimates and at the same time increasing final export totals closer to last season's record.
Brussels confirmed 633 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, taking the 2015/16 total so far to 28.8 MMT, just 3% less than this time a year ago.
After running well ahead of normal, French wheat crops are now losing quality and slipping down ratings tables.
The crop looks generally pretty good at the moment, but there are strong concerns that the mild winter has increased the number of disease spreading insects.
Germany;s crop survived the mild winter well but crop development here is also a bit behind schedule now.
Overall, a similar crop to last year's 16.4 MMT harvest can be expected for UK wheat at the moment.
Chicago Spybeans Hit New Highs
01/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans rose to their best levels on a nearby contract since September 2014. The monthly USDA crush report released after the close showed that 158.15 million bu of soybeans were crushed during the month of April. This was down 5% from March, but 1.14 million above the average trade guess. Last night's crop progress report had beans 73% planted versus 68% a year ago, and 66% for the 5-year average. Emergence is at 56% versus 55% last year and 40% on average. Market fundamentals probably don't warrant beans around $11/bu at the moment, but that's what we've got - in both crop years. Fund money is still short and nervous. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.99 3/4, up 21 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.68 1/2, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $399.10, up $2.50; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at $32.19, up 37 points.
Corn: The corn market posted decent gains, and now stands at the highest levels in almost a year on a front-month basis. Lanworth noted that the drought in Brazil’s second crop corn has affected their satellite imagery estimates for the crop – having them lower their estimate to 74.9 MMT for both Brazilian crops compared to the USDA’s 81 MMT. Brazil’s cereals exporting association Anec cut its estimate for 2016 corn exports to 23 MMT from 23.7 MMT previously. The USDA had corn plantings in he US at 94% complete last night, the same a a year ago, but up a little versus 92% on average. They said that 72% of the US crop is good to excellent, 2 points down on a year ago. The regular USDA export inspections report are delayed a day by the Memorial Day holiday and will now be released on Friday. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.13 3/4, up 9 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.15, up 8 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains. The USDA had winter wheat crop conditions up 1 point to 63% in last night's report, with spring wheat up 3 points to to 79%. Possible crop damage to French wheat following recent heavy rains is getting some air-time. FranceAgriMer have steadily been dropping their condition ratings there in recent weeks. Similar conditions are now also getting a mention in Germany. Morocco were reported to have bought 133,000 MT of unknown origin wheat. China only sold off 6,500 MT of the 50,331 MT offered up for sale at government auction today. Australia's 2016 wheat harvest will be the best in five years, National Australia Bank said - pegging that at "at least" 26.1 MMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.73 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.56, up 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.36 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents.
EU Grains MIxed, Weighing Up Brexit Implications
01/06/16 -- EU grains traded mixed, with Jul 16 London wheat down GBP0.20/tonne at GBP105.90/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat unchanged at EUR164.25/tonne, June corn was up EUR1.75/tonne to EUR173.50/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed closed EUR2.50/tonne lower at EUR374.25/tonne.
Sideways trading is/was the name of the day, and looks set to remain so now until we get stuck into harvest 2016 or a proper US weather scare.
There's some talk of the French labour dispute spilling over onto the grains sector, but no sign of that happening just yet.
If anything it's excess rains that are more likely to be a problem there.
The pound closed back below 1.29 versus the euro last night as the UK Brexit referendum approaches.
The UK's economy would suffer "a large negative shock" if it left the EU, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said last night.
Whilst plenty are ready to tell us what would happen if we did or didn't vote to leave, few are focusing on the likelihood of that happening. Most bookies are offering only around 2/7 for that, suggesting that this is a pretty unlikely outcome, so fretting over the consequences of an even that's unlikely to happen could be a bit of a waste.
A Reuters survey, which places greater weight on forecasters with a higher rate of accuracy, estimates the GBP/EUR at 1.2550 a month from now, to 1.29 in 3-months, over 1.32 in 6-months and 1.3650 a year from now.
That suggests weaker London wheat relative to the Paris market for the coming 12 months.
Chicago Grains - Friday
27/05/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher heading into a 3-day weekend. supportive today was news that the USDA had announced new crop sales of 110 TMT of soybeans to China and 100 TMT of soymeal to unknown this morning. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that Argentinean soybean harvest was 72% complete, up 11 percentage points from a week ago. Flood damage has been severe not only in crop loss and lower quality terms – but in delays of getting the harvest to the market, they said. The Exchange held its 2015/16 production estimate on hold at 56 MMT. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.86 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.56 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $402.60, down $7.00; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.48, up 44 points.
Corn: The corn market closed higher on the day and with double digit gains for the week. Unknown destinations bought 140,000 MT of US corn for old crop delivery6, dome were suggesting that this was China, but it seems a unlikely. They were reported to have sold off 890 TMT of the 2 MMT offered in today's government auction. The US has only shipped 0.3 MMT of US corn into China so far this year. Of the remaining 1.8 MMT of imports some 1.15 MMT if said to be coming from Ukraine. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the corn harvest there was 29% complete, 14% behind average and up just 1 percentage point from last Friday due to wet weather. The Exchange left its production estimate unchanged at 25 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.12 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.14 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower. The US markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day. London wheat will also be closed, but Paris grains are open as usual. FRench wheat crop conditions fell week-on-week, US Winter wheat conditions are expected to fall 1-2% in next week’s report. Russian wheat exports for 2015/16 total 23.1 MMT as of May 23, compared to 21.05 MMT a year previously. Canada said that their wheat exports were 3% lower year-on-year at 13.3 MMT with 10 weeks of the season remaining. Jordan announced a tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Algeria were in the market for "at least" 50,000 MT of hard wheat and finished up buying 130,000 MT from Mexico. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.81 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.59 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.35 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents.
