Nogger's Blog

CBOT Close

22/10/10 -- Soybeans

Nov CBOT soybeans settled 2c lower at USD11.99 1/2; December soymeal ended USD2.50 lower at USD330.90; December soyoil closed 6 points higher at 48.30. There were no fresh sales to China for once today, although the USDA did report a sale of 165,000 MT to "unknown". Still, Chinese demand continues to drive the market, with sales to them currently running 14% up on year ago levels for the current 2010/11 marketing year. Chinese think-tank CNGOIC forecast 2011 soybean imports at a record 54 MMT, some private analysts are talking as high as 60 MMT next year.

Corn

CBOT Dec corn ended 4 1/4c lower at USD5.60; CBOT March corn ended 3 1/4c lower at USD5.72 1/4. Dec closed 3 cents lower on the week after failing to add to last week's two year highs. Export sales were very poor Thursday, prompting demand concerns at these levels. Fund length in December will start to get rolled over before very long, potentially pressuring the front month. News from China indicates that corn production there may be worse than previous estimates, and that they may need to import corn in 2011. Rumours circulating earlier in the week of US sales to China remain unconfirmed, but should show up in next week's export sales report if true.

Wheat

CBOT Dec wheat settled up 2c at USD6.70 3/4 a bushel; KCBT Dec wheat rose 2 1/2c to USD7.19; MGEX Dec wheat fell 1/4c to USD7.28 1/4c. Dec CBOT wheat lost over 30 cents on the week. Dryness in the US Plains remains a concern, "this year’s winter wheat is the 3rd slowest emerging crop on record using historical crop progress from USDA," say Martell Crop Projections. A La Nina induced winter drought would most certainly not be what the doctor ordered following on from this year's crop losses in Russia and the FSU. Production prospects in Argentina seem to be improving, but there are bigger question marks hanging over the outlook in Australia.

EU Wheat Close

22/10/10 -- EU wheat futures closed mixed Friday with nearby London contracts slightly lower and the deferred positions slightly higher. In contrast Paris wheat did the exact opposite, with small gains nearby and modest losses further forward.

Currencies played a big part with the pound weaker across the board, falling to a six month low of 1.1233 against the euro and slipping under 1.57 versus the US dollar.

Nov10 London wheat ended GBP0.25 lower at GBP161.75/tonne, whilst Nov11 London wheat gained GBP1.00 to GBP138.25/tonne. Nov10 Paris wheat rose EUR0.75 to EUR209.50/tonne, whilst Nov11 fell EUR0.25 to EUR185.75/tonne.

The trade seems to have moved into a sideways pattern, after weekly (or even daily) price moves of GBP5/tonne had almost become the norm. Nov10 London wheat declined GBP0.75/tonne on the week as a whole, with Nov10 Paris wheat down by EUR5.25/tonne.

EU farmers are busy with winter plantings and overall the wheat area is expected to increase slightly whilst rapeseed sowings are called lower (although they're seen up here in the UK). The reason for the latter is largely due to enforced reductions in Germany and Poland due to far too much rain in August and September. The flip side of that is increases in wheat plantings in these areas.

Brussels issued soft wheat export licences for 621,000 MT this past week, bringing the total for the marketing year so far to 7.7 MMT, more than 50% up on where we were last year. That puts us on target to reach our 2010/11 projected export target by spring, potentially leaving a tight last quarter to the July/June marketing year.

Prior to this week there had been signs of a slow up in EU exports, albeit following on from the frenetic pace at the start of the season. The continuing strength of the euro may damp down a little demand for EU wheat, as illustrated by Egypt also buying US and Canadian wheat earlier in the week.

Spain Showing Signs Of Rethinking Anti-GM Policy

22/10/10 -- There's nothing like a spate of high prices to get people thinking about the validity of their anti-GM policy is there?

In a move reminiscent of the Indians suddenly relaxing their own stringent import regulations once they started running out of wheat, the Spanish are now taking US corn for the first time in years.

It's a bit like the "I'll only eat organic if it's not TOO expensive" brigade isn't it?

Do you want scruples in that paella, Senor?

It's also interesting to note from this report that "Tarragona wheat stocks are close to full capacity....after a flurry of imports from Romania and Bulgaria in recent weeks."

Paris Open Interest And Middlesbrough Slappers

22/10/10 -- Open interest in the Paris November wheat futures fell to just over 60,000 lots yesterday, well below the peak over over 141,000 at the beginning of September.

It's been pretty surprising how such an exodus has managed to occur in a reasonably orderly fashion. Also of interest is the increase in OI in the Jan, March and Nov11 contracts, with Nov11 OI now higher than the nearby Nov10 position.

That would appear to suggest that funds have been happy to roll their positions into the deferred months rather than liquidate them entirely and that they beleive in the longevity of these prices.

The Nov10/Nov11 spread is currently EUR33/tonne in Paris and GBP24.75/tonne in London. Many now appear to think that that differential is too wide.

Does that mean that old crop is over-priced or new crop under-priced? Given the current rate of UK and EU exports it would seem unlikely that we are going to see a collapse in old crop values any time soon.

So new crop must be undervalued then? I mean, from a UK perspective, we are going to have Vivergo scrapping with Ensus for every tonne of wheat going by then aren't we? Like a Middlesbrough and Hull slapper fight on a hen weekend in Scarborough?

You could certainly argue it that way, but somehow I just don't see it. Certainly we won't approach next season's export campaign with quite such a gung-ho attitude I suspect. If indeed there is an export campaign at all.

New crop wheat prices are much more likely to be influenced by the fortunes of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. They will after all be ultra keen for an injection of foreign mazoolah by then.

Yes I know that winter plantings there are down, but there's always the spring. At least if it hasn't been planted it won't be subject to winterkill will it. And then again of course, who'd be willing to bet on Vivergo starting up on time?

I just don't see UK wheat prices shooting up from GBP100/tonne to GBP150/tonne in the space of a couple of months and staying there forever. It's just not realistic, what would cereal growers have to moan about for one? Well yes I know they'd have a bloody good go at finding something, but even so.

Now they can moan that they wished they hadn't sold a tonne, and dine out on that quite happily until next summer. The market needs to provide them with something to drone on and on about incessantly during 2011/12 doesn't it? So I've drawn up a few odds on what might happen to generate next season's almost inevitable malaise:

7/2 Vivergo plant doesn't turn a cog during the whole of the 2011/12 season
5/1 Perfect growing season produces a record UK wheat crop of 18 MMT
10/1 Renewable fuel mandate scrapped
25/1 Ensus plant closed following North Korean nuclear attack on Middlesbrough
33/1 Wayne Rooney signs for Middlesbrough and buys Ensus just so he can close it down 'cos he doesn't like the smell

EU Rapemeal Prices

Brussels Spouts

22/10/10 -- Brussels spouted forth soft wheat export licences for 621,000 MT this past week, bringing the total for the marketing year so far to 7.7 MMT, more than 50% up on where we were last year.

The USDA have the EU-27 down to export 21 MMT in the whole 2010/11 marketing year, at this rate we'll have done that by March.

We either need to slow up or dig very substantially into our projected ending stocks, currently estimated at just under 11 MMT.

CBOT Close

21/10/10 -- Soybeans

Nov soybeans closed at USD12.01 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents; Dec soybean meal closed at USD333.40, down USD4.40; Dec soybean oil closed at 48.24, down 23 points. Export sales were much larger than estimated, at 2,017,234 MT, China took almost 1.5 MMT of that total, with "unknown" the next largest buyer taking 227,900 MT. Most pundits are also now projecting 2011 Chinese soybean imports of a record 55-60 MMT.

Corn

Dec corn closed at USD5.64 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Mar corn closed at USD5.75 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents. Corn export sales were very poor at just 212,500 MT, easily the lowest of the 2010/11 marketing year so far, down 72% from the previous four week average. That total is only around a third of what was expected and may lend some weight to the theory that current prices are rationing export demand.

Wheat

Dec CBOT wheat closed at USD6.68 3/4, down 14 1/4 cents; Dec KCBT wheat closed at USD7.16 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents; Dec MGEX wheat closed at USD7.28 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents. Wheat weekly export sales were in line with trade ideas at 574,000 MT. Nigeria and Egypt were the main buyers. Wheat has not participated in the rally that the other grains have experienced the past couple of months. Improving weather conditions for wheat in KS and the OK HRW belt weighed on values.

EU Wheat Close

21/10/10 -- Nov London wheat ended up GBP0.25 at GBP162.00/tonne and Nov Paris wheat down EUR2.25 to EUR208.75/tonne.

Currencies ruled the day, with the euro firmer across the board, and the pound falling to a six month low against the single currency.

That supported London wheat relative to Paris today.

Despite the reported "shortage" of world wheat, it seems bizarre that the market continues to react to supposed "surpluses" and "deficits" in assorted places around the globe.

As reported previously an astonishingly small 22MMT apparently marks the difference between "burdensome" wheat ending stocks and the latest "food crisis" that we now seemingly find ourselves in.

The Argy Ag Ministry raised their estimate for wheat production there to 12 MMT, a 60% increase on last season.

Early Call On CBOT

21/10/10 -- The overnight grains were steadier in follow-through trade from last night's sharp gains. Beans led the way closing up around 6-8c, with wheat up 2c and corn up 1c. The weak dollar is helping to underpin the market.

Crude oil is lower and looks to be setting itself up to attempt to drop below USD80/barrel again.

The story of the day so far has to the weekly export sales report pegging soybean sales well above expectations at over 2 MMT, almost double last week's total. China took what is becoming their customary 75%, with sales of almost 1.5 MMT. Exports were also high at more than 1.6 MMT, the largest in a year.

By complete contrast corn sales were poor at just 212,500 MT, easily the lowest of the 2010/11 marketing year so far. That total is only around a third of what was expected and may lend some weight to the theory that current prices are rationing export demand.

Wheat sales were in line with trade ideas at 574,000 MT.

So despite early week jitters after the Chinese raised their interest rates, the market will continue to monitor weekly sales to see if this actually proves to be the case.

Trade talk that US corn has been sold to the Chinese this week may prove to be baloney. Most analysts now seem to think that this season's Chinese corn crop will come in around 10-15 MMT lower than current estimates from the USDA and CNGOIC.

Although they have been selling off state-owned reserves they've hardly been flying out of the door, with sales only averaging around 20-30% of what has been offered in recent weekly auctions.

Most pundits are also now projecting 2011 Chinese soybean imports of a record 55-60 MMT.

Soybeans remain "the big story" in my book.

"Despite a mature and strong La Nina in place, Argentina has seen plentiful rains this spring,leaving planting and crop condition in very good shape," say QT Weather.

The Argy Ag Ministry would seem to concur, raising their estimate for wheat production there to 12 MMT, a 60% increase on last season. Corn production is seen at a record 26 MMT.

Early calls on this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-2c, wheat up 1-3c, beans up 6-8c.

It should be another interesting session with beans clearly in the driving seat, set to potentially move higher than the opening calls on the back of export sales. Will they drag corn up with them, can the both move independently or will corn force beans lower?

USDA Weekly Export Sales

21/10/10 -- The USDA this afternoon reported huge weekly soybean export sales for the week ended 14th October at 2,017,200 MT. Up 85 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average.

China took almost 1.5 MMT of that total, with "unknown" the next largest buyer taking 227,900 MT. Physical exports for the week were also large at 1,624,900 MT, with China again accounting for the lion's share of that at just over 1.1 MMT.

Pre-report estimates were for sales of 1.1-1.4 MMT.

Conversely corn sales disappointed at just 212,500 MT, down 77 percent from the previous week and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average. Pre-report estimates were for sales of 650 and 950 thousand MT. There was no sign of China, although they may show up next week.

Wheat sales were in line with expectations of 400 to 600 thousand MT at 574,000 MT.

Corn and wheat physical exports were broadly in line with recent weeks at 833,500 MT and 592,100 MT respectively.

The French Are Revolting

21/10/10 -- You can say what you like about the French, and I usually do, but they certainly know how to organise a good strike.

A quarter of all petrol stations in the country have already run dry, as the nation's refinery workers join forces with dockers and other militants to down tools in protest at the prospect of having to work until they're sixty-two the poor lambs.

"It's ridiculous, I've had to go to twelve petrol stations before I could find enough fuel to light my molotov cocktails," said one protester.

Electricity is also running low, so thoughtful protesters have started setting Citroens on fire so that they can blockade roads in safety.

An unmoved French PM Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters "I'm not right bothered our kid, there's more important things in life. Have you seen my wife's three penny bits? I can have a go on them any time I like, that's democracy for you."

German Biodiesel Plant Temporarily Halted

21/10/10 -- German biodiesel producer EOP Biodiesel has been forced to temporarily halt production at it's plant in Pritzwalk, Germany after a gear unit at it's facility was damaged.

The plant reportedly manufactured 132,000 MT of biodiesel a year, with a by-product of about 150 MT of rape expeller/day, according to the company's website.

EU Rapemeal Prices

Early Vibe - Pound Looks Vulnerable

21/10/10 -- The pound has slumped to it's lowest against the euro (1.1240) since early April in the aftermath to yesterday's spending review and a feeling that the BoE is softening it's stance on more QE.

The release of the minutes of the BoE's MPC meeting yesterday revealed one vote from committee member Adam Posen in favour of upping QE by GBP50 billion to GBP250 billion. This morning BoE chief economist Spencer Dale is quoted as saying that MPC policymakers must alter their views as circumstances change.

In what is now starting to look like a concerted effort to weaken the pound MPC member David Miles is quoted this morning as saying that there are still plenty of risks ahead and that "things could turn worse".

Adding more pressure to the pound was news just out that UK retail sales for September, which were expected to have risen 0.2% month on month, in fact came in below expectations showing a 0.2% decrease. Year on year sales were up only 0.5% against expectations of a 1.9% increase.

China has released some fairly robust economic data overnight, as was expected, but the figures also show inflation continuing to rise. After the surprise interest rate hike earlier in the week the market will remain nervous on the prospect of further rate rises aimed at curbing inflation, and the potential impact upon demand for imported grains.

That certainly doesn't seem to have been harmed too much yet, with China buying substantial quantities of US soybeans on an almost daily basis. Rumours circulating yesterday that they had also been in the market for US corn are so far unconfirmed.

This afternoon's weekly export sales report from the USDA will be scrutinised to see how sales are holding up, and who features amongst this week's buyers. Trade estimates for today’s report are between 650 and 950 thousand MT for corn, 1,100 to 1,400 thousand MT for beans and 400 to 600 thousand MT for wheat.

The Argy Ag Ministry have raised their estimate for wheat production there to 12 MMT, a 60% increase on last season.

CBOT Close

20/10/10 -- Soybeans

November CBOT soybeans crashed back through the USD12/bushel level, rising 32c to USD12.12; December soymeal hit a one-year high settling up USD9.60, at USD337.80; December soyoil rose 137 points to 48.47. China were back in the market for soybeans again today, buying 180,000 MT for 2010/11 as reported the USDA. "A strong La Nina is under way creating dry conditions in the US heartland. Soybeans have already been damaged by La Nina drought in the Eastern Midwest. Indiana soybeans ripening prematurely under heat and moisture stress, suggesting the state yield will trail lower on the November USDA report," say Martell Crop Projections.

Corn

CBOT December corn ended 27 1/2c higher at USD5.73 1/2 a bushel; CBOT March corn was also up 27 1/2c to USD5.85 1/2 a bushel. Corn futures gained back everything they lost yesterday, plus then some, with a recovery in the outside markets leading the way. It was in a steady climb all day that triggered near limit gains at the close. Crude oil was up nearly USD2.50 by the close as bullish mania came to the forefront once again. Strong rumours of Asian interest in US corn swept the market. The five day forecast has light rain moving into most of the country with heavier amounts of up to an inch in some states.

Wheat

CBOT December wheat ended up 11 1/2c at USD6.83 a bushel; KCBT December wheat rose 14 1/2c to USD7.30, and MGEX December wheat climbed 14 1/4c to USD7.43 3/4. Wheat was a follower of corn and beans once again. All the commodities seemed to benefit from the lower dollar. The southern Plains are expected to see some much needed rain for the sown wheat with the new five day forecast showing fair rain amounts for the SRW belt also. Egypt buying some US wheat in yesterday's tender was supportive, whilst wheat prospects in Western Australia continue to deteriorate.

EU Wheat Close

20/10/10 -- November London wheat ended up GBP1.65 at GBP161.75/tonne, with November Paris wheat unchanged at EUR211/tonne.

The inverse on Paris wheat continues to erode as nearby longs exit the market. November finished the day at just a EUR0.50/tonne premium to January and EUR1.50 over March.

Open interest has fallen by more than half in recent weeks, from 140,000 lots at the start of September to under 63,000 lots last night. Indeed, as spec longs roll into January open interest there is now greater than that in Nov10, and Nov11 open interest is also slightly higher than nearby.

The pound had a yo-yo day, coming under pressure early on ahead of Chancellor George Osborne's spending review speech. However it had recovered lost ground by the end of the day as the news seemed relatively well received by the markets.

Chicago wheat opened higher in afternoon trade, dragged up by sharp gains in corn and soybeans again, which lent some late support to EU wheat.

The UK exported more than 200,000 MT of wheat in August, add to that what went out in July and the 2010/11 marketing year is off to a flyer with 468,000 MT marching out of the door. That's an increase of 75% on this time last year, according to agrimoney.com.

Hot Breaking News

20/10/10 -- Rooney to sign for Citeh in the January transfer window after they offer him 200 grans a week.

No it's not a typo either.

Read all about it

Early Call On Chicago

20/10/10 -- The overnight grains all rebounded from yesterday's declines with beans up 13-15c, corn 8-10c higher and wheat advancing 4-5c.

It's same old, same old as far as I can see with beans potentially the strongest and wheat the weakest leg of the three.

Yesterday's sharp declines in outside markets following China's surprise interest rate hike seems to have been arrested, at least for now.

Crude oil is up, although by less than a dollar and the DJIA looks like opening slightly firmer in line with modest gains in European stocks.

Dryness in the Midwest will have enabled harvest progress for beans and corn to advance even further ahead of normal this week. Some rain in the forecast for HRW wheat areas should enable to newly planted crop to get off to a decent start.

India is shaping up like having a record wheat crop this season, with a decent soil moisture profile as planting gets underway and more modern varieties going into the ground. The government there have raised the support price for wheat to help ensure that planted area is maintained.

China are back in the market for soybeans again, buying 180,000 MT today report the USDA. As you will have noticed this has rapidly become a daily event now.

US wheat got a decent look-in in Egypt's wheat tender yesterday, although it was far from a landslide victory.

Early calls on this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 10-15c, corn up 8-10c, wheat up 2-4c.

It's Like Christmas Day In Reverse

20/10/10 -- Chancellor George Osborne is set to begin his Spending Review statement at 1230 BST following the weekly Commons session.

It's a bit like Christmas Day in reverse isn't it?

"Oh what's that big one in the shiny red paper, Daddy?"

"No, sorry son, your not having that this year. Come on pull yerself together and stop blubbing lad and help me wrap this bike back up and put it back under the tree."

Or the "Look what you could have won" moment at the end of Bullseye when two blokes from Solihull narrowly missed out on sharing a fitted kitchen.

Keep an eye on the pound. It could be lower than Kerry Katona's IQ by tea time.

EU Rapeseed Meal Prices

Today's "Must Read"

20/10/10 -- US ethanol producers are shaking like an MFI wardrobe in a force nine gale over the prospect that their long-standing 45c/gallon handout from the government, due to expire at the end of the year, might not get renewed.

"I think it would be very irresponsible to take away an incentive overnight," bleats the head of one leading US ethanol producer. I bet he bloody does.

Which is somewhat akin to "Funds not to blame for pushing up grain prices" - Fund manager.

It's not about the money, honest. We're trying to save the planet here for Christ's sake

Muse At Ten

20/10/10 -- The overnight grains are all higher, partially reversing last night's losses in the case of CBOT wheat and corn, and more than making up for them in the case of beans and meal.

The dollar is firmer and the pound is nervous ahead of Georgie Boy's big day.

The pound has just slipped below 1.57 against the dollar after the minutes of the BoE's last MPC meeting came out, showing that Adam Posen voted to increase QE by GBP 50 billion and arch-hawk Andrew Sentance voted for a 25 basis point hike in interest rates.

Other news just out shows that UK public sector borrowing rose to GBP 16.2 billion in September compared to the GBP14.5 billion that was expected.

Crude oil slipped below USD80/barrel last night on the back of China upping it's interest rates, but has manged to claw it's way back above that this morning, currently standing at USD80.36/barrel.

Egypt split it's tender yesterday, buying 120,000 MT of French, 110,000 MT of US and 60,000 MT of Canadian wheat.

The UK exported more than 200,000 MT of wheat in August, add on what went out in July and the 2010/11 marketing year is off to a flyer with 468,000 MT marching out of the door. That's an increase of 75% on this time last year, according to agrimoney.com.

CBOT Close

19/10/10 -- Soybeans

Nov soybeans closed at USD11.80, down 4 cents; Dec soybean meal closed at USD328.20, down USD0.10; Dec soybean oil closed at 47.10, down 56 points. Private exporters announced the sale of 120,000 MT of soybeans to China and 275,000 MT sold to unknown. China surprised the market with an interest rate hike for the first time in three years.

Corn

Dec corn closed at USD5.46, down 11 1/4 cents; May corn closed at USD5.63 1/4, down 12 cents. The US harvest is well advanced with corn harvesting at 68% done vs 39% normally. China has surprised the market by raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, in an attempt to curb rising domestic housing prices and persistent inflation.

Wheat

Dec CBOT wheat closed at USD6.71 1/2, down 18 1/2 cents; Dec KCBT wheat closed at USD7.15 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents; Dec MGEX wheat closed at USD7.29 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents. The USDA reported that private forecasters had sold 110,000 MT of HRS wheat to unknown for 2010/11 delivery and a change in destinations from unknown to Egypt for 110,000 MT of HRW wheat. Egypt also bought 290,000 MT of US, French and Canadian wheat for last half Dec shipment.

EU Wheat Close

19/10/10 -- It was another mixed day with Nov London wheat ending down GBP0.90/tonne at GBP160.10/tonne and Nov Paris wheat down EUR2.75/tonne at EUR211.0/tonne.

On Paris wheat the Nov/Mar inverse has now narrowed to just EUR1.00/tonne. Open interest in Nov continues to erode.

China raised their interest rates today, undermining potential US grain exports.

The dollar was firmer and the pound weaker on the back of that.

Egypt bought French wheat in a tender today, but also took US and Canadian wheat, and Iraq booked a 200,000 MT combo of US, Canadian and Ukraine wheat, indicating that no one origin has the upper hand at current levels.

Ukraine's grain harvest is 96% done, producing 38.5 MMT compared to a final figure of 46 MMT last year.

Early Call On CBOT

19/10/10 -- The overnight grains closed lower with nearby beans down around 14c, wheat 7-8c lower and corn around 5c easier.

The dollar rose and crude oil fell after China surprised the market with an interest rate hike for the first time in three years.

The inference being put on that by the market is that of a rising yuan, possibly spilling over into general currency appreciation in neighbouring Asia, and the effect on demand for commodities in general.

Tim Geithner meanwhile came out with what now looks like a well-timed statement last night that the US would not allow the dollar to devalue to gain a competitive export edge. Is there some collusion going on here?

The US harvest is well advanced with the USDA last night reporting 83% of US soybeans harvested vs 62% on average, and corn harvesting at 68% done vs 39% normally.

Egypt are tendering for wheat today, and US origin may stand a fair chance of getting the nod.

The Chinese announcement is clearly the big news of the day, with the market expected to open lower across the board, but being particularly bearish for soybeans.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session are: beans down 12-15c; wheat down 6-8c; corn down 3-5c.

China Raises Interest Rates In Surprise Move

19/10/10 -- China has surprised the market by raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, in an attempt to curb rising domestic housing prices and persistent inflation.

The move could also be seen as the latest twist in the ongoing dispute between China and the US over the value of the yuan, ahead of this weekend's G20 meeting in South Korea.

The talk seems to be that maybe the US and China have reached and accord on exchange rates, and that the Chinese may now be more willing to accept the yuan moving higher. That may curb demand for imported commodities, and as well all know China regularly account for 75% or more of all US soybean weekly export sales these days.

With Chinese demand for commodities almost single-handedly keeping the global market going at the moment, one or two raging bulls might fancy cashing in a few chips this afternoon.

EU Rapeseed Meal Prices

The Morning Vibe

19/10/10 -- The market has a treading water feel to it so far this morning, the overnight grains are a little firmer, but only modestly so.

The dollar is also firmer after US treasury secretary Tim Geithner says that he isn't a fan of using a weak currency to boost exports.

Ukraine's grain harvest is 96% done, producing 38.5 MMT compared to a final figure of 46 MMT last year.

Egypt are back in the market tendering for wheat today, with the results expected mid-afternoon.

China only sold 22% of the corn it put up for public auction this week.

India's top wheat producing state of Uttar Pradesh will increase output by more than 12% in the coming season to nearly 31 MMT, according to the state's agriculture director. Beneficial rains and an increased utilisation of higher yielding varieties will be behind the boost in output, he says.

George Osborne is in the limelight tomorrow and his every word will be scrutinised, along with the publication of this month's MPC minutes. Before that we've got Merv the Swerve speaking to UK business leaders today. I'm getting the word "volatility". I'd expect the pound to end the week lower than it started it.

The UK feed market has a "toppy" feel to it. Whether that is because the big price increases of the past few months are starting to hit demand, or if it is simply a case of "demand will pick up once winter arrives" remains to be seen.

Another school of thought is that many farmers doubled up their orders last month and will find themselves back to the trough in November.

Personally I'd tend to favour the former theory, not that I see prices completely falling out of bed mind. The way things look at the moment it could be a difficult winter, with tight supply equally matched by thin on the ground demand.

The domestic rape crushers seem to have suddenly found some more rapemeal to sell that they didn't know they had. Ditto the flour millers and their wretched wheatfeed. Both those markets seem to have turned on a sixpence.

Tarquin and Ptarmigan can push bits of paper around all day, it doesn't actually create one extra mouth to feed does it?

Chicago Close

18/10/10 -- Soybeans

Nov soybeans closed at USD11.84, down 1 cent; Dec soybean meal closed at USD328.30, up USD0.10; Dec soybean oil closed at 47.66, down 11 points. Weekly export inspections were very strong at 59.384 MMT. the USDA’s crop progress report showed 83% soybeans harvested, ahead of estimates and 54 points ahead of last year. China bought 120,000 MT of US beans overnight. Brazil's top soybean state of Mato Grosso is just 7% planted as of Thursday.

Corn

Dec corn closed at USD5.57 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Mar corn closed at USD5.69 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents. Corn closed lower for the fourth day in a row. Weekly export inspections as reported by the USDA for were a little low at 28.17 MMT. The USDA’s crop progress report showed corn harvested at 68%, in line with estimates and 52 points ahead of last year. Crude oil traded both sides but settled lower at the end of the day.

Wheat

Dec CBOT wheat closed at USD6.90, down 14 1/2 cents; Dec KCBT wheat closed at USD7.32, down 13 cents; Dec MGEX wheat closed at USD7.44 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents. Weekly export inspections were 20.798 MMT, slightly down on last week and a bit below what was expected. the USDA’s crop progress report showed winter wheat planted at 80%, up 10%. Emerged showed 51%, up 13 points from last week. Forecast rains for late this week and next in the southern Plains will aid US winter wheat development.

EU Wheat Close

18/10/10 -- EU wheat futures opened higher but closed mostly lower after CBOT wheat fell in afternoon trade. Nov London wheat closed GBP1.50 lower at GBP161/tonne, with Nov Paris wheat down EUR1.00 at EUR213.75/tonne.

Volume was low as end-user buying remains muted as spec longs look to unwind their length on nearby November before it expires in a few weeks.

Ukraine finally agreed on the size of it's export quotas, which are pretty minimalistic at 2 MMT of corn, 0.5 MMT of wheat and 0.2 MMT of barley, valid until the end of the year.

Western Australia's wheat crop will struggle to make even 3.5 MMT this year, according to various media reports. Last season it was 8.25 MMT. Whilst drought is the problem there, eastern Australia is having it too wet. That hasn't been a problem up until now, although some reports are just starting to suggest that these heavy rains are now causing disease and potential yield & quality issues.

With the quality of Canada's wheat crop also badly affected by too much rain, this could further tighten supplies at the top end of the market.

Russian farmers have manged to sow around 15 million hectares of winter grains, 19% down on last season's total but better than many had expected after decent rains finally arrived in drought-stricken areas recently.

Big Week For The Pound

18/10/10 -- Or should that be a big weak for the pound? New Chancellor George Osborne gets the unenviable task of outlining exactly what spending cuts are in store to tackle our record GBP156 billion budget deficit on Wednesday.

It could be a case of be damned if you do, or be damned if you don't for Georgie boy.

If he hits us with a full in the face raft of austerity measures then the pound could come under some pressure.

On the other hand any delay in tackling the thorny problem, and not introducing enough spending cuts, could also be viewed as dragging the recession on for longer, which could also undermine sterling.

Early Call On CBOT

18/10/10 -- The overnight grains ended a relatively subdued session with little change. Wheat finished 1/4c higher to 3 1/2c lower, beans were down 2c to up 3 1/4c and corn closed mostly around 2-3c easier.

Neither the dollar nor crude oil are providing much direction either, although both are a bit firmer.

China bought 120,000 MT of US beans overnight, with reports that more sales on the way entirely plausible.

The delayed arrival of rains in Brazil's top soybean state of Mato Grosso means that soybean planting are just 7% done as of Thursday, well behind the 22% pace of last year.

Western Australia's wheat crop will struggle to make even 3.5 MMT this year, according to various media reports. Last season it was 8.25 MMT.

Ukraine's government have finally settled on modest grain export quotas for the remainder of 2010.

Forecast rains for late this week and next in the southern Plains will aid US winter wheat development.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 2-3c; beans down 1-3c; wheat mixed.

Above Us Only Sky

18/10/10 -- There was a news report out over the weekend that a John Lennon statue at Liverpool Airport engraved "Above us only sky" had had "below us only Wolves and West Ham" added to it by some wag.

They'll need to change that to just West Ham now.

Ukraine Latest

18/10/10 -- The Ukraine Grain Association say that, export quotas or not, customs officials are still effectively blocking grain exports entirely.

The government have finally agreed on the size of export quotas, settling at 2 MMT of corn, 0.5 MMT of wheat and 0.2 MMT of barley, valid until the end of the year.

The customs service completely deny that exports are being held up, and say that they are simply looking for a pen.

Of course once they are back in the market as sellers again, next season or whenever, all this will affect their stature as a "pukka" supplier. That said, they weren't exactly flavour of the month prior to all this where they? Even Egypt refused to take their name.

So what will they do then? That's right drop their prices until they get to a level where someone can't say no. Again.

EU Rapeseed Meal Prices

What A Week

18/10/10 -- Spent a large chunk of last week out on the road, which is unusual for me and reminded me how much I used to dislike the daily commute grind.

Spoke to a room full of agri reps at a conference in Preston on Wednesday, staying over the night before. The hotel, nice though it was, could only have been closer to the M6 if it had actually been built on the hard shoulder.

As ever the room was rather hot, but given the close proximity to the motorway going to sleep with the window open was sadly not very realistic. Every man & his dog in attendance (except for moi) seemed to have varying degrees of "man flu". Sitting in a warm room full of reps oozing germs from every orifice, coughing, spluttering and one or two even compelled to doze off rather than hang on my every sage word.

There was just enough time to check a few emails on Thursday before heading off to the Hull Dinner. Basically a warm room full of traders with "man flu" oozing germs from every orifice. There was one red hot topic of conversation there, if only I could remember what it was.

Back home Friday afternoon, coughing and spluttering myself now, check a few more emails before an early finish. Time to relax, the kids went off to the local swimming baths leaving the delightful MrsN#3 and I for a nice peaceful Chinese meal from the local delivery service. Singapore fried rice and fillet steak Cantonese style, washed down with Lemsip. lovely.

Literally five minutes after ordering the Chinky (no offence to any Chinkies) the phone goes and it's the local swimming baths. Bear in mind that I've answered the phone here. "Oh, hello is that MrsN#3?"

What are they on about do I sound like a woman or something? What are they trying to insinuate here, exactly? My own newly acquired "man flu" means that my voice is several octaves lower than normal, so Christ what must I sound like normally? Joe Pasquale? Or maybe George has told them that his mother is Bonnie Tyler?

Suffice to say that George has split his head open, thoughtfully before even bothering to actually enter the pool. Ho hum.

By an amazing stroke of luck the Chinky is just around the corner from the hospital. So MrsN#3 goes into casualty with a profusely bleeding small boy, whilst I pop off round there to attempt to intercept our relaxing evening repast.

Of course, you can guess that the driver just left three nano seconds ago didn't he. MrsN#3 rings to say that it's only going to require a bit of "glue" and they'll be out in 20 minutes. But you know that they won't don't you.

Three hours later they emerge, with the Chinky stone cold and a now perky George wanting to know what he's having for tea. Bearing in mind it's now ten o'clock at night, and we still have to go and pick his sister up from her cousins up the road.

The entire household goes to bed hungry. Well when I say the entire household, I mean excluding the dog. A word of warning here, never give a border terrier Singapore fried rice and fillet steak Cantonese style if you should feel tempted to do so at some point in the future.

Still, every cloud and all that, MrsN#3 gets up first on a Saturday.

I decide that getting completely ratted is probably a smart move to throw the germs off and make them want to vacate my body at the first opportunity. For some unknown reason I decide to go on eBay, drunk, not a smart move. I put a bid of fifty quid in for a Mickey Mouse outfit and come within 23 minutes of owning Liverpool FC.