Nogger's Blog: 12 May 2013

Chicago: Soy Up, Corn Mixed, Wheat Down

17/05/13 -- Soycomplex: Strong demand continues with the USDA today reporting the sale of 120,000 MT of new crop soybeans for delivery to China, along with 18,000 MT of old crop and 120,000 MT of new crop soybeans to "unknown" destinations. Old crop US bean availability remains very tight. May 13 beans went off the board at a premium of more than a dollar to July 13 this week. That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense, and since the May expired July has been clawing back some of that lost ground and putting in a bit of a premium of it's own over new crop. Nov 13 has been tagging along for the ride. Informa Economics today forecasting a US soybean planted area of 78.286 million acres, up more than a million on the USDA's estimate of 77.1 million, although slightly lower than last month's forecast of 78.457 million. Informa estimates soybean yield at an average 43.9 bu/acre, a little lower than the USDA's 44.5 bpa. Soybean production is therefore forecast at 3.388 billion bushels versus the USDA’s May estimate of 3.390 billion. The trade is now gearing up for Monday night's crop progress report. The theory being that rapid corn planting has taken place this week, reducing a wholesale switch into soybean sowing in place of unsown of corn. Soybean planting in Monday's report is only expected to be around 10-15% done as farmers concentrate all their efforts on getting the corn in. Only 6% of the 2013 US soybean crop was in the ground as of last Sunday night, the slowest pace since 1984. In other news the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast the soybean crop there at 48.5 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Harvesting is around 90% complete, they added. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.48 1/2, up 21 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.28 1/4, up 10 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD425.10, up USD10.20; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.52, unchanged. For the week Jul 13 beans were up just shy of 20 cents, with meal up USD18.30 and oil up 29 points.

Corn: Old crop corn closed higher, new crop was lower. Informa reduced their 2013 US corn planting estimate from 97.753 million acres last month to 96.827 million and around half a million lower than the USDA's forecast of 97.3 million. Yields were pegged at 160.9 bu/acre versus the USDA's 158 bpa. The big debate now is how much corn has been planted in the US this week. Estimates vary quite widely. Towards the low end we have planting advancing from 28% done last week to maybe 50% complete as of Sunday night. Others go 60%, some even say 70%. The record for planting the largest proportion ever of the US corn crop in just one week, I am reliably informed, was set in 1992. In what was the equivalent of last week, 43% of the crop was planted in one week, equal to 34 million acres, says Dale Durchholz of Agrivisor. "As the hourglass runs out on corn planting dates for profitable yields, Midwest producers are 'mudding' in seeds. Ag Web is hearing reports that 60-80% of corn may now be planted in Iowa and Illinois, despite exceptional wet field conditions," say Martell Crop Projections. After May 15, it is harder for growers to wait to plant corn University of Illinois agronomist Emerson Nafziger asserts. "In fairness, you get to a certain point and it’s what have you got to lose?" Farmers are getting desperate as the ideal sowing period was 2 weeks ago, they add. In other news the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the Argentine corn crop at 24.8 MMT, unchanged from a week ago. They say that the harvest there is approaching the halfway point at 46% done. Argentine corn offers are said to be USD30-35/tonne cheaper on an FOB basis for July shipment than they are out of the US. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.52 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents; Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.56, up 2 1/4 cents. For the week Jul 13 was up 16 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was lower on all three exchanges, although less so in Minneapolis which has been the recurring theme all week. Spring wheat planting delays on the northern US Plains and Canadian Prairies being the reason for that. The USDA will report on planting progress for US wheat on Monday night. Last week saw spring plantings at only 43% done versus the 5-year average of 63%. North Dakota was a notable laggard at only 26% planted versus 92% this time last year and 53% normally. The top spring wheat state experienced the coldest April on record this year, according to Martell Crop Projections. "This explains the delayed snowmelt and cold soil temperatures that set back spring planting," they say. Further south in the winter wheat states "hard red winter wheat experienced freezing temperatures in several cold outbreaks in April and May. How much wheat may have been damaged is still unknown. Kansas wheat has stabilised, but yield potential is still severely reduced by drought and freeze effects with 28% good-excellent, 31% fair and 41% poor-very poor. Poor Kansas wheat ranks among the 15% of worst years on record (out of 28 growing seasons)," they add. Informa reduced their US spring wheat acres by 300 thousand to 12.4 million acres. Although up from last year, that's lower than the March USDA planting intentions report. Elsewhere the market is watching to see if the forecast rains for Ukraine and the Russian winter wheat areas in the south turn up. There's also rain in the forecast for Australia. "Rains across South Australia on Monday, and across southern Queensland and New South Wales Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, will finally begin to replenish moisture which will benefit winter wheat germination and early growth," say MDA CropCast. Meanwhile Turkey was said to have offered wheat at around a USD30/tonne discount to French wheat in it's tender. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.83 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.37 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.03 3/4, down 1/4 cent. For the week that puts Jul 13 CBOT wheat down 26 1/2 cents, with KCBT wheat down 21 3/4 cents and MGEX down a more modest 5 cents.

Lose Ten Pounds In Three Days With The London Wheat Diet!

17/05/13 - Friday was another bad day at the office for London wheat, particularly old crop, which has now slumped almost ten pounds in the past three sessions. There's been a bit of debate around for some time as to whether old crop prices would come down to meet new crop, or if the latter would rise to meet the former. Now it looks like we have the answer.

London wheat closed with front month May 13 down GBP3.75/tonne to GBP181.50/tonne and new crop Nov 13 down a more modest GBP0.50/tonne to GBP178.85/tonne. Paris wheat closed with front month Nov 13 EUR2.25/tonne easier at EUR206.25/tonne.

For the week overall it's been pretty brutal for May 13 London wheat which is down GBP9.75/tonne, with all of those losses coming in the last three days of the week. New crop Nov 13 fared somewhat better, closing the week GBP2.65/tonne lower in London and down EUR2.50/tonne in Paris.

For May 13 London wheat this was the lowest close on the weekly chart since the last week of June 2012. For new crop Nov 13 London wheat it was the lowest close on the weekly chart since mid-October 2012.

Note that Nov 13 Paris milling wheat closed at a sterling equivalent of under GBP175.00/tonne, making London feed wheat still a premium of almost GBP4.00/tonne to it, despite this week's losses.

Brussels issued 213 TMT of soft wheat export licenses this week. Whilst the pace is finally slowing, year to date exports for 2012/13 stand at 17.4 MMT, up over 47% versus year ago levels. As wheat pours out of Europe though, corn pours in. Corn imports currently stand at 9.85 MMT, an increase of more than 100% compared with last season.

As far as crop conditions at home are concerned, "there is certainly a sense of improvement over the last month. Bare patches aside, many winter cereal crops are now seen in good condition, although development is still delayed," said the HGCA. "The situation is less clear for winter oilseed rape," they noted. Indeed it is.

Across the Channel FranceAgriMer report the percentage of winter wheat displaying 2 nodes is up from 74% a week ago to 93% as of May 13, although still a little behind the 99% of a year ago. The crop is 8% headed versus 27% this time last year.

Winter barley at the headed stage is up from 12% a week ago to 46%, although again this lags last year's proportion (when all the crops were particularly forward) of 89%. Spring barley displaying an ear of at least 1cm is 45% versus 19% a week ago and 88% in 2012. Corn planting has advanced from 67% last week to 81%, which is actually marginally ahead of year ago levels of 79%.

The proportion of French winter wheat rated good/excellent increased one percentage point on last week to 67%, versus 69% a year ago. Winter barley good/excellent was also up a point on last week to 67%, versus 62% in 2012. Spring barley rated good/excellent was unchanged on a week ago at 80%, versus 89% this time last year.

In international news Iran's wheat imports are forecast to plunge to just 1 MMT in 2013/14, compared with 6 MMT this season. Officials say that nearly half of the 2012/13 imports were for rebuilding government-owned stocks and that this year’s production outlook is also set to improve significantly from year ago levels.

Next week's price direction is likely to be governed by the weather. The trade is expecting big strides to have been made with US corn planting, possibly record strides, when the USDA issue their weekly crop progress report on Monday night. Planting as of last Sunday night was 28% done, trade estimates put this week's figure at anywhere between 50-70% complete.

Needed rain is in the forecast for Russia and Ukraine, with the latter set to get up to 2 inch totals between now and the end of the month. Crop conditions in Kazakhstan are said to be favourable.

Chicago Close - Thursday

16/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The USDA's weekly export sales report gave us net sales of 15,300 MT of old crop soybeans along with 346,600 MT of new crop. In line with expectations for sales of a combined 2-600 TMT. Net old crop commitments are 99.3% of the USDA target for the season, and 94% of that is already shipped with 3 1/2 months still left to go. Soymeal export sales were stronger than expected at 192,500 MT. MDA CropCast estimated China's 2013 soybean crop at 11.81 MMT down 180,000 MT from last week and down 3.4% on last year. CNGOIC estimated China's June soybean imports at 7.0-7.5 MMT, placing July imports at "above 6.0 MMT" and forecast both August and September shipments at 5.0 MMT each. Argentine farmers continue to hoard soybeans as a hedge against inflation and the weakening peso. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have only sold 6.1 MMT of their new crop soybeans, down more than 40% on this time last season. Fund buying in beans was estimated at a net 5,000 contracts on the day. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.27 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.24 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD414.90, up USD4.40; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.52, up 17 points.

Corn: Corn export sales came in at 219,900 MT of old crop and a modest 38,600 MT of new crop, at the low end of trade forecasts for a combined 2-400 TMT. The US now has 87% of the USDA target for the season on the books, with a third of that target shipped so far. A report on Reuters said that 2 MMT of South American corn is scheduled to be shipped to the US between now and August. South Korea's Kocopia bought 55 TMT of Brazilian corn for August shipment. MDA CropCast forecast the world corn crop up 12.8% in 2013/14 led by a near 30% hike in US production. They increased their projections for output in Ukraine, Russia, Europe and Argentina versus last week. They also forecast the world barley crop up nearly 7% to 135.9 MMT this year. For US corn "rains were much more limited this past week, which allowed planting to increase considerably. However, rains should now build back across the region, and planting progress will slow a bit, especially in south central and northwestern portions of the Midwest. Planting should progress well in far northeastern areas," they said. Funds were estimated as net sellers of around 8,000 corn contracts on the day. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.41 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents; Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.53 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market fell in line with corn. MDA CropCast increased their estimate for 2013/14 world wheat production by 6 MMT from last week "due mainly to increased acreage and yield expectations in the U.S, EU-27, and FSU." They also upped potential Canadian output by 2.1 MMT from last week to 29.7 MMT, an increase of 12.5% on last year. In Canada this week "the lack of widespread rains allowed spring wheat planting to progress very well," they said. US weekly export sales for wheat were 125,000 MT of old crop and 415,600 MT of new crop versus trade forecasts of a combined 2-500 TMT. The US now 95.7% of the USDA target for the Jun/May 2012/13 marketing year on the books. With only a few weeks remaining to the end of the 2012/13 season though there's still 2.3 MMT worth of outstanding sales left unshipped, meaning that it looks likely that there will be some carryover of sales into 2013/14 and the USDA target of exports of 28 MMT this year is unlikely to be met. Bangladesh bought 50 TMT of optional origin wheat, possibly Indian, for June shipment. Japan bought a 147,620 MT combo of US, Canadian and Australian wheat for June–Aug shipment. Fund selling in CBOT wheat was estimated at a net 2-3,000 contracts on the day. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.87 3/4, down 6 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.43 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.04, up 1/4 cent.

EU Wheat Extends Declines As Crop Prospects Improve

16/05/13 -- EU grains closed lower as production prospects around the world improve. MDA CropCast today increased their global wheat production estimate by 6 MMT from last week, upping their coarse grain forecast by 12.7 MMT from a week ago and raising their world oilseed output forecast by 6.6 MMT versus last Thursday.

May 13 London wheat finished GBP4.00/tonne lower at GBP185.25/tonne and new crop Nov 13 ended GBP2.70/tonne weaker at GBP179.35/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR1.75/tonne easier at EUR208.50/tonne. For Nov 13 London wheat a close at this level tomorrow would be the contract's lowest close on the weekly chart since mid-October. Even so, Nov 13 London feed wheat is still priced at a premium to Nov 13 Paris milling wheat.

Despite a steady decline since early November, London what has actually fared significantly better than US or French grain during this period. Front month London wheat is "only" down 16% since Nov 8, versus a decline of 25 % in Paris and 24% in Chicago.

Germany's DRV increased their 2013 grain production estimate from 44.4 MMT last month to 45.5 MMT this time round. Their all wheat crop estimate was 23.8 MMT, up 6.1% on last year, with the 2013 OSR crop forecast at 5.36 MMT, an 11.6% increase on 2012.

Ukraine's 2012/13 grain exports currently stand at 21.27 MMT, up 13.8%, and will reach 24.4 MMT by the end of the season, according to the local Ministry. May 1st grain stocks were 8.4 MMT, down 39% on year ago levels.

The leading French grain hub of Rouen exported only 87,774 MT of grains in the week through to Wednesday, down 58% on last week, The total included 55,245 MT of soft wheat, most of which (50,845 MT) was headed for Algeria and the rest (4,400 MT) is coming to the UK.

MDA CropCast forecast the world wheat crop at 680.2 MMT in 2013/14, up nearly 7% on last year. The EU soft wheat crop was pegged at 131.3 MMT, a rise of 3.7% on 2012. They forecast the world corn crop at 912.4 MMT, up 12.8 MMT on last week and up 11.4% on year ago levels. They see the EU barley crop at 54.7 MMT, up 3.8% on last year.

Expectations for much needed rainfall for this weekend and early next week for the drier areas of Ukraine and Russia also had the market under pressure today. MDA CropCast have the Russian wheat crop at 52.5 MMT (up 39% on last year), the Ukraine crop at 20.6 MMT (up 33%) and Kazakhstan output at 15.0 MMT (up 55%) in 2013.

Comments back from people on the ground over there are Ukraine: "About normal for winter cereals and rape; some good, some not so good" and in southern Russia: "1st wheat looking OK, 2nd wheat looking average. More wheat than last year but definitely not a bumper crop."

Bangladesh bought 50,000 MT cargo of optional-origin wheat from Indian trading house Amira Foods, suggesting that India may be finally capitulating in the face of declining global wheat prices.

USDA Weekly Export Sales

16/05/13 -- The USDA's weekly export sales report gave us net sales of 15,300 MT of old crop soybeans along with 346,600 MT of new crop. In line with expectations for sales of a combined 2-600 TMT. Soybean shipments slowed to 167,600 MT. Even so, total commitments are 99.3% of the USDA target for the season, and 94% of that us already shipped.

Corn sales came in at 219,900 MT of old crop and a modest 38,600 MT of new crop, at the low end of trade forecasts for a combined 2-400 TMT. Shipments were so-so at 298,500 MT. The US now has 87.2% of the USDA target for the season on the books, with a third of that shipped so far.

Wheat sales were 125,000 MT of old crop and 415,600 MT of new crop versus trade forecasts of a combined 2-500 TMT. Actual shipments were a decent 726,800 MT as the end of the marketing year approaches. There's still 2.3 MMT worth of outstanding 2012/13 wheat sales however. Shipments plus outstanding sales total 26.8 MMT, or 95.7% of the USDA target for the Jun/May marketing year.

The Bloody British Weather

16/05/13 -- Little more than a week ago I was sat here in the office sweating my bollocks off and looking up mobile aircon units on the internet, and now it's snowing in Devon! The papers are loving it of course, being full of the usual shite that they trot out when they've got nothing better to do.

"Forecasters predict a repeat of last year's wash-out summer," from the Daily Mail. "Another washout summer on its way as forecasters predict grey skies and more rain," from the Express.

Interesting then to take a shuftie at these weather maps from the US National Weather Service forecasting a drier than normal summer. Here they are on a month by month basis:

June

July

August

They even take us through to the autumn and early winter:

September

October

November

Of course they may know Jack Shit, like the Express and the Mail, but it gives us something to pin our hopes on though doesn't it? Cue "I don't want it to be that dry" emails.....

EU Rapemeal Prices

16/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, with the main feature of note being changes in the Jul 13 position as it adjusts to being somewhere between old and new crop. DRV said yesterday that the German rapeseed crop would come in at 5.36 MMT this year, an increase of 11.6% on last year.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

May13	300.00	unch
Jun13	296.00	-1.00
FH Jul13	284.00	-6.00
LH Jul13	274.00	-16.00
Aug/Oct13	226.00	+1.00
Nov13/Jan14	225.00	+1.00
Feb/Apr14	225.00	+1.00
May/Jul14	222.00	unch

Chicago Ends Lower On US Weather Improvements

15/05/13 -- Soycomplex: NOPA pegged the April US crush at 120.113 million bushels versus trade expectations of 125-126 million. That's down sharply from 137.08 million bushels in March and the April 2012 crush of 131.708 million. Talk of significant planting progress since the weekend is also a little bearish for new crop. Dry Midwest weather with only scattered showers for the next 3 days and the above normal temps that are in forecast for Saturday and Sunday should allow further progress to be made. There's talk of soybean plantings reaching 30-35% done in Monday night's USDA report versus 6% as of last Sunday. The USDA reported the sale of 171 TMT of new crop US beans to China. CNGOIC estimated China's 2013/14 soybean imports at 66 MMT, whilst that would be a record volume it's also 3 MMT less than the USDA forecast last week. Even taking into account those record Chinese purchases the USDA also had 2013/14 ending stocks at record highs too (75 MMT). Macquairie forecast Chinese imports a little lower than CNGOIC at 63-65 MMT, which potentially adds further to the projected record high carryout next season. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the country had imported 4.285 MMT of beans in April, and estimated May imports at just over 6 MMT. Brazilian port workers staged a one day strike in protest to changes in working conditions that now allow Santos, Paranagua and Rio de Janeiro port operations to load vessels 24 hours/day to cope with demand and clear the backlog of boats lined up waiting to get in. John Deere forecast the average 2013/14 US soybean price at USD11.75/bu versus a previous forecast of USD12.50/bu. Thailand bought 50 TMT of Argentine soymeal for Aug/Sept shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 200-600,000 MT. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.12 3/4, down 2 cents; Sep 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.62 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD410.50, down USD1.30; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.35, down 41 points.

Corn: Weekly US ethanol production rose 14,000 barrels/day to an average of 857,000 bpd, according to the Energy Dept. However production needs to come in at around 868,000 bpd to meet the USDA's target for the season. Better weather this week should have allowed US farmers to make good progress with spring corn plantings. There's talk that US corn plantings on Sunday night could have reached 55-60% complete versus 28% done last Sunday. Japan bought 150 TMT of South African corn for immediate shipment. Taiwan too was said to have bought one cargo of South African corn, also for immediate shipment. It seems that this is business being done due to lack of availability in the US and shipping delays out of Brazil. John Deere forecast the average 2013/14 US corn price at USD5.00/bu versus a previous forecast of USD5.25/bu. ProAgro said that between July 1st and May 11th Ukraine had exported 20.94 MMT of grains including 6.56 MMT of wheat, 12.34 MMT of corn and 2.04 MMT of barley. Exports in the same period in 2011/12 were 18.69 MMT. Informa are due out on Friday with their latest US acreage estimates. Last month they had the US corn acreage estimated at 97.753 million acres versus the USDA's estimate of 97.3 million. The had the bean acreage estimated at 78.457 million acres versus the USDA's 77.1 million. Tomorrows weekly exports sales are expected between 200-400 TMT. Fund selling in corn was estimated at around 5,000 contracts on the day. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.50 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.63 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market lacks enough of a story for now to push prices higher. Rain is in the forecast for parts of Russia and most of Ukraine. Reports out of the latter in particular suggest that winter crops are generally in pretty good shape. A USDA crop tour cited favourable conditions for wheat crops in Ukraine, noting that moisture reserves were near capacity this spring. John Deere cut their forecast for 2013/14 US wheat prices to USD6.90/bu versus a previous forecast of USD8.00/bu. South Korea bought 70 TMT of Australian wheat for Jul/Aug shipment. Jordan made no purchase on their 150,000 MT soft wheat tender. Informa come out with their US acreage estimates on Friday, last month they had the US all wheat area estimated at 56.074 million acres versus a USDA estimate of 56.4 million. Slow progress with spring wheat planting on the northern Plains continues to support Minneapolis wheat relative to Chicago and Kansas wheat. There's still a glimmer of hope for HRW wheat on the southern Plains though. "The top US wheat state of Kansas is expecting heavy rain this week that may improve yields. Just 9% of wheat is heading behind the 52% normally. If heavy rainfall materialises, it would improve conditions for grain filling, promoting plump kernels," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 2-500 TMT. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.93 3/4, down 17 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.51 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.03 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.

London Wheat Slide Continues Aided By Weaker Euro

15/05/13 -- EU grains were mixed in another relatively "no news" day. Tonight was the first sub-GBP190/tonne close for a front month on London wheat since the early days of last August.

London wheat closed the day with front month May 13 down GBP2.00/tonne to GBP189.25/tonne, and with new crop Nov 13 ending GBP0.35/tonne easier at GBP182.05/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat ended EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR210.25/tonne.

The euro was weaker on news that France had entered it's second recession in the past 4 years with the economy shrinking by 0.2% in Q1 of 2013. Even the stalwart Germany only saw economic growth of 0.1% in the first quarter. First quarter Eurozone GDP fell 0.2% from the previous quarter, marking the 6th consecutive quarterly decline.

The BoE said that they expect UK inflation to be within their 2% target rate in the next 2 years, adding that growth is seen a little stronger than it was 3 months ago.

These items depressed London wheat relative to it's Paris counterpart.

UK wheat exports in March were the lowest in more than a decade, and down 78% versus March 2012, according to data from Defra. Imports in March meanwhile were up more than threefold to over 250 TMT, taking the 2012/13 marketing year to date total to 2.12 MMT versus less than 0.67 MMT a year previously.

FranceAgriMer tweaked their 2012/13 ending stocks estimates slightly, cutting wheat carryout from the forecast 2.6 MMT last month to 2.5 MMT this time round. Corn ending stocks were raised 0.1 MMT to 3.1 MMT.

The trade still questions the Friday USDA forecasts for Black Sea wheat production in 2013. Total output for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine is expected to come in at 93 MMT versus 63.3 MMT last year.

"Unseasonable warmth and dryness in Ukraine and southern Russia has accelerated spring grain planting, but field moisture has rapidly declined. No important rain has occurred in over 2 weeks because of a stabilising ridge of high pressure. Spring temperatures have been abnormally warm, accelerating field drying, frequently exceeding 80 F in May," say Martell Crop Projections.

"Southern Russia winter wheat is stressed by spring drought and heat from the same dominant ridge of high pressure. May maximum temperatures have been 10-15 F above normal. Scanty showers this month have not been sufficient to compensate for high evaporation. Very dry field conditions have developed in the 4 southern winter wheat districts Stavropol, Krasnodar, Rostov and Volgograd. However, unlike Ukraine, Russia’s stored ground moisture is insufficient to support winter wheat growth and development," they add.

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 83-89 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They estimated May and June Russian grain exports at 500 TMT each, versus 480 TMT in April, placing total 2012/13 grain exports at 16.0 MMT compared to an Ag Ministry estimate of 14.8 MMT.

EU Rapemeal Prices

15/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit easier today. Old crop demand is slackening off, and new crop rapeseed production prospects are improving with widespread rains falling across the UK, northern France and western Germany.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session:

May13	300.00	-2.00
Jun13	297.00	-3.00
Jul13	290.00	-5.00
Aug/Oct13	225.00	-2.00
Nov13/Jan14	224.00	-1.00
Feb/Apr14	224.00	-1.00
May/Jul14	222.00	unch

Chicago Closing Comments - Tuesday

14/05/13 -- Soycomplex: May 13 went off the board leaving July as the new front month. CNGOIC estimated China’s May soybean imports at 5.59 MMT versus 3.98 MMT in April. They forecast China's 2013 soybean crop at 12.3 MMT, down 3.9% on last year. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina's soyean harvest at 70% complete, pegging production there this year at 48.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 48.0 MMT. Oil World said that Brazil may ship a record volume of soybeans this month, and Argentina a 33 month high of 1.85 MMT. Some of that may be headed for the US. Michael Cordonnier said Brazilian soybeans take 52 days to get to China versus only 16 days for US beans. He estimated the 2012/13 Brazilian soybean crop at 81.5 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. The Argentine soybean crop was estimated at 50.0 MMT. He also estimated US 2013 soybean yields at 43.5-44.0 bu/acre. Oil World pegged China’s Jan–Apr soybean imports at 15.5 MMT versus 18.1 MMT a year ago. The NOPA April crush report comes out tomorrow. Trade estimates for that are an average 125.607 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 124.0-131.0 million. The March the crush was 137.08 million bushels and in April 2012 the crush was 131.708 million. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.24 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.14, down 5 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.14, up 4 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD461.00, up USD3.10; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.26, down 35 points.

Corn: The Midwest is forecast mainly dry today and tomorrow, but rains return by the weekend and into next week. The trade is anticipating good planting progress to be made in corn in the early part of the week. The University of Illinois said that corn planted after May 10th could suffer an 8% decline in yield potential, rising to 15% after May 20th and 25% after June 1st. China's CNGOIC estimated the corn crop there at a record 214 MMT, up 2.8% on last year and 2 MMT higher than the USDA. They have Chinese corn imports in 2013/14 at 5.0 MMT, which is 2 MMT less than the USDA, although up versus 2.7 MMT this season. Michael Cordonnier estimated US corn yields in 2013 at 155-156 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He placed the Brazilian corn crop at 76.0 MMT, up 1.0 MMT from his previous estimate. He said that about 41% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested. The weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow. Last week's production came in at 843,000 barrels per day, down 14,000 bpd from the previous week. Production needs to come in at around 868,000 bpd to meet the USDA's target for the season. South Korea's NOFI bought 60 TMT of optional origin (probably South American) corn for September shipment. South Korea also bought 53 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for August shipment. They are said to have bought around 500 TMT of wheat and corn over the past week. May 13 Corn closed at USD7.06 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.52 1/2, down 3 cents.

Wheat: Fresh news was thin on the ground for wheat, which led to thin directionless trade. CNGOIC estimated China's 2013 wheat crop at a record 121.9 MMT, up 1.1% on last year. The wheat planted area was estimated at 24.1 million hectares, down 0.42% from a year ago. Japan are tendering for 147,620 MT of wheat for June–Aug shipment. The breakdown for that is 24,556 MT of western white US wheat, 29,200 MT dark northern spring US wheat, 30,966 MT of US HRW wheat, 34,632 MT of Canadian western red spring wheat and 28,266 MT of Australian white wheat. The Russian Ag Minister said that as of yesterday spring grain plantings are 41.3% complete, around unchanged from a year ago. The Russian government sold around 42 TMT of grain in today's tender offering, bringing the total sold since sales began in October to 3.15 MMT. Ukraine spring grains plantings are 94% complete. Needed rains are in forecast next week for both Russia and the Ukraine. Australia reverts to being dry for the next few days, but rains are back in the 4-7 day forecast. "With winter wheat harvest approaching, deep discounts on Black Sea new crop offers and signs the HRW has stabilized, the current price pattern and the general lack of interest favours lower wheat prices going forward," said Benson Quinn Commodities. "North Dakota producers have planted 26% of wheat up from just 7% a week ago. The slow pace of planting is still ahead of 2011, when just 15% of wheat was sown. Both corn and spring wheat planting would be stymied by rain later this week," said Martell Crop Projections. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.01 1/2, unchanged; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.57 3/4, also unchanged.

EU Grains Mixed, UK Wheat Exports Rage Ahead

14/05/13 - EU grains were mixed in fairly subdued trade. Last night's planting progress report from the USDA said that only 28% of the US corn crop was in the ground as of Sunday night, the slowest pace on record and well below 65% for the 5-year average. With a largely dry start to this week though the trade is thinking this could rise to around 50% done by the end of the coming weekend.

Even so, early planting is not directly linked to big yields, and neither is late planting necessarily a precursor of low yields. "Among other years with slow spring planting only 1984 was similarly late (29% done at this time). Yet the 1984 US corn yield finished near average, proving it is not impossible to obtain a productive yield from retarded planting," said Martell Crop Projections.

Meanwhile "among the fastest planting years on record, only 2004 corn made an excellent corn yield. Merely average yields were obtained in 2000, 2005 and 2006 all with accelerated spring planting dates. The 2010 corn yield even finished below normal despite a rapid planting rate, and national yields in 2012 and 1988 finished very poorly, despite early seeding," they added.

London wheat closed with front month May 13 down EUR0.25/tonne to GBP191.25/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP0.20/tonne firmer to GBP182.40/tonne. Paris wheat closed with front month Nov 13 EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR210.00/tonne.

Wheat continues to flood into the UK. The latest customs data shows that UK wheat imports in March were 251 TMT versus exports of less than 33 TMT. That means that UK wheat imports had already reached 2.23 MMT by the end of Q3 2012/13, within spitting distance of the official Defra full season estimate of 2.26 MMT.

Ukraine spring grains are 94% planted, including 4.5 million hectares of corn, according to the Ministry there. The National Weather Centre said that winter crops are in good condition, despite some dryness in the east, and that moisture reserves are generally good after decent winter rains and heavy snowfall. Rain is falling in western and central areas of the country today, moving east. Almost the entire country is expected to receive above average rains in the next 14 days.

Southern Russia should also get some decent rain in the next two weeks, although the Volga region looks set to remain relatively dry. Spring grain plantings, which were more than double year ago levels by mid-April, have slowed to now only be in line with last year's pace as many growers wait for rain.

According to the latest data from the Russian Ministry 12.5 million hectares have now been sown with spring grains, just over 40% of the planned area. Only 2.3 million ha of spring wheat has been sown versus 3.0 million ha a year ago. Spring barley currently occupies an area of 5.4 million ha compared with 5.2 million a year ago, with corn at 1.8 million versus 1.3 million in 2012.

The Russian Ministry sold 41,991 MT of intervention grains in a tender today, bringing the cumulative 2012/13 total to date to 3.15 MMT since sales began in October.

They said grain exports in April were 430 TMT. These will fall a little to around 350-400 TMT in May, before rising to around 500-600 TMT in June, they estimate.

Dryness may cut Australian rapeseed plantings by 200,000 ha, say Oil World. That could cut production for 2013/14 to around 3 MMT they say, although that's actually higher than the USDA's 2.8 MMT forecast from Friday. The latter having plantings down 250,000 ha versus last year.

Chinese think tank CNGOIC forecast record corn (214 MMT) and wheat (121.9 MMT) production there this year. Both estimates are slightly higher than the USDA's 212 MMT and 121 MMT respectively, released Friday night.

Lunchtime News Snippets

14/05/13 -- The overnight Globex grains are mixed, trading a cent or two either side on corn and wheat and 4-6 cents higher on beans.

Chinese think tank CNGOIC say that the country will produce a record 214 MMT of corn this year, up 2.8% on last year despite delayed plantings due to wet and cold weather. That's 2 MMT more than the USDA said on Friday.

They also forecast the Chinese wheat crop up 1.1% to a record 121.9 MMT this year. OSR output will rise 0.7% to 14.1 MMT and soybean production will fall 3.9% to 12.3 MMT, they reckon. They're Chinese, so these numbers possibly aren't worth the computer screen they're written on.

More reliable though may be customs data numbers that show China's Jan/Mar rapeseed oil imports were up more than 69% to over 387 TMT.

The Russian Ministry said grain exports in April were 430 TMT. These will fall a little to around 350-400 TMT in May, before rising to around 5-600 TMT in June, they estimate.

Dry weather has slowed the pace of Russian plantings markedly. Spring grains have been sown on 12.5 million hectares, or 41% of the planned area, which is about the same pace as a year ago, say the Ministry. On April 19 spring grains were sown on an area of over 100% more than twelve months ago.

Japan is in for 147,620 MT of a mixture of US, Australian and Canadian milling wheat in a routine tender.

South Korea has bought 60 TMT of optional origin corn for September shipment along with 53 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for August shipment. South America might provide the corn and the Black Sea possibly the wheat I'd guess.

Jordan are in for 150 TMT of wheat and 100 TMT of feed barley. Ditherers.

The Ukraine Weather Centre say winter crops in are good condition despite dryness in east, moisture reserves are good and rain is expected in the "near future". It's currently raining in western Ukraine apparently.

Michael Cordonnier says that Brazilian farmers may cut full season corn acreage for the 2013/14 harvest due to price considerations and plant more soybeans. They may then follow full season beans with a with a shorter maturity crop such as sorghum, sunflower or even canola, he says.

Note that May CBOT contracts go off the board today.

EU Rapemeal Prices

14/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, but with new crop mostly a little firmer, on concerns over rapeseed production in western Europe this year.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

May13	302.00	-3.00
Jun13	300.00	unch
Jul13	295.00	unch
Aug/Oct13	227.00	+1.00
Nov13/Jan14	225.00	+1.00
Feb/Apr14	225.00	+1.00
May/Jul14	222.00	+1.00

Chicago Jumps As Bad Weather Delays Plantings

13/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The market was sharply higher, particularly nearby, on ideas that plantings through to Sunday night maybe weren't as advanced as the 10% that the trade was forecasting. That proved to be the case after the close with the USDA saying nationally only 6% of the 2013 US soybean crop is in the ground. That is the slowest pace since 1984, and well below the 24% that is average for this time. Illinois has zero percent planted versus 41% this time last year and 19% for the 5-year average. Weekly soybean export inspections were 3.4 million bushels, low but in line with trade forecasts of 3-6 million. The US already has more than 99% of the USDA's projected 2012/13 soybean exports shipped or on the books already, and for meal it's over 100%. The prospect of the US having to import beans to keep going is very real, and acute old crop tightness will be accentuated by a late harvest. Trade expectations for the monthly NOPA crush report due on Wednesday are around 125-126 million bushels. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.21, up 32 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.19 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.09 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD457.90, up USD13.60; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.61, up 44 points.

Corn: Slow US planting progress and tight old crop stocks also sent the corn market sharply higher. After the close the USDA said that 28% of the US corn crop had been planted, slightly below the average trade guess of 29% and the slowest pace since 1984. The 5-year average is 65%. Weekly export inspections of 12.7 million bushels beat trade expectations of 6-10 million. Year to date shipments are 501.68 million bushels versus the USDA forecast of 750 million for the season. South Korea's NOFI are tendering for 70 TMT of optional origin corn for September shipment. South American origin is the favourite to win that tender. After a fairly dry weekend and start to the week in the Corn Belt, rains return Wednesday and Thursday and both the 6-10 day and 11-15 day forecasts are wetter. "A horizontal weather front is expected to develop on Wednesday from Nebraska to Ohio, keeping conditions unstable and ripe for showers. Hardly any movement is predicted for several days, into the weekend. Warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico would circulate northward, fuelling scattered strong thunderstorms. At least one inch of rainfall is predicted this week in the corn belt, but potentially more," say Martell Crop Projections. May 13 Corn closed at USD7.18, up 30 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.55 1/2, up 19 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat remains a follower, dragged higher by corn. Weekly export inspections of 24 million bushels did offer some support though versus trade expectations of 15-19 million. That was up from 17.9 million a week ago and above the level required to hit the USDA's target for the season. After the close the USDA reported US winter wheat crop conditions as 32% good/excellent, the same as last week. Poor/very poor was also unchanged at 39%. Only 29% of the crop is headed versus 51% normally. Spring wheat planted advanced from 23% complete last week to 43% done this time round. The 5-year average for this time is 63% though. North Dakota is only 26% planted versus 92% this time last year and 53% normally. Spring wheat emergence is only 10% versus 63% last year and 32% for the 5-year average. The weather refuses to play ball. "The northern spring wheat forecast in North Dakota and Minnesota is very stormy later this week. A strong storm system would encroach in the Northern Plains Friday night and Saturday turning weather conditions stormy and wet. One-inch rains are possible with locally strong thunderstorms," say Martell Crop Projections. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.01 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.60 1/2, down 11 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.57 3/4, unchanged.

EU Wheat Dragged Higher By US Markets

13/05/13 -- EU grains closed higher, dragged up by firmer American markets once Chicago opened in afternoon trade. The market is expecting US corn plantings to be only around 25% complete in tonight's crop progress report from the USDA. Anything below 29% would be the slowest pace on record for the second week in May since the USDA began issuing their weekly planting progress reports in 1984.

May 13 London wheat finished GBP0.25/tonne higher at GBP191.50/tonne and with new crop Nov 13 GBP0.70/tonne higher to GBP182.20/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR1.50/tonne firmer at EUR210.25/tonne.

Sifting through the finer details of Friday night's USDA report we see that they have UK wheat yields pencilled in at 7.45 MT/ha this year, up nearly 12% on last year, although 2012 were the worst yields the country has seen since 1988. Production of 11.55 MMT, if achieved, would match the 30 year low set in 2001.

For barley, they estimate UK yields at 5.65 MT/ha, up slightly on 5.47 MT/ha last year which was the worst year since 2001. Despite that barley production was forecast at 6.5 MMT, an 18% increase on last year, and the highest since 2009 thanks to the largest planted area since 2001.

French weekly crop conditions saw winter wheat rated good/excellent fall from 67% last week to 66% as of last Monday, according to a delayed crop report from FranceAgriMer. Winter barley rated in the top two categories was unchanged from a week previously at 66%, whilst spring barley is 80% good/excellent.

Crop development has improved markedly, but still lags year ago levels with 74% of winter wheat at the 2 node stage versus 45% the previous week and 97% a year ago. Winter barley has increased from 68% showing 2 nodes a week ago to 95%, but behind 99% this time last year.

Corn plantings meanwhile have increased to 67% done, which is actually slightly ahead of 65% complete this time in 2012.

Weather-wise for the week ahead Europe is split into two halves, much colder than normal in the west and warmer than normal in the east. Daytime highs of only 57F in the UK on Friday compare with temperatures as high as 82F for Poland and 91F in Ukraine. The western half of Germany, all of France and even Spain too will see temperatures 3-9F below normal for this time of year, according to the GFS weather model.

Trade gossip suggests that this year's Indian wheat crop may fall short of the official government estimate of 93.6 MMT, coming in around the 88-90 MMT mark.

Domestic Russian wheat prices were lower on the week as of Friday, with 3rd grade milling wheat down 1.6% on week previous levels to 9,275 roubles (equivalent of GBP192.70/tonne), say SovEcon with feed wheat down a similar percentage to around GBP186.50 in sterling terms.

The export line up is quiet to start the week. Egypt remain absent from the market, Jordan is still in for 150,000 MT and Iraq’s 50,000 MT tender is pending.

Reports that Morocco was in for a sharp rebound in production this year gained more credence on Friday with the USDA forecasting a wheat crop of 6.8 MMT there this year, up over 75% versus 2012.

US Weather Highlights

13/05/12 -- Here's a snippet of the latest US weather situation from the excellent Martell Crop Projections:

Midwest Weather Warming, Forecast Still Very Wet

Strong warming this week will increase field temperatures in the corn belt, but scattered strong showers would resume causing locally heavy rainfall. Around 1 inch of rain is predicted in the Midwest corn belt and 0.65 – 1 inch in northern spring wheat.

Mostly dry and hot weather is predicted in top wheat states Kansas and Oklahoma.

A warm ridge of high pressure in the Western United States is translating east. Highs in the upper 80s- low 90s F are predicted today in the Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains, and near 90 F tomorrow in Kansas, Nebraska and Minnesota.

Warmth is considered beneficial in the Upper Midwest where field temperatures are still marginal for germinating corn, near 50 F. Frost developed Saturday and Sunday mornings in the Upper Midwest. Wet field conditions are the main obstacle to planting corn in the heat of the grain belt. Iowa and Illinois, the top 2 corn states are especially wet. Only 7-8% of corn was seeded as of May 5, compared to 55-60% typically.

Both states are expecting more unwanted rain this week, following a dry Monday-Tuesday. A horizontal weather front is expected to develop on Wednesday from Nebraska to Ohio, keeping conditions unstable and ripe for showers. Hardly any movement is predicted for several days, into the weekend.

Warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico would circulate northward, fuelling scattered strong thunderstorms. At least one inch of rainfall is predicted this week in the corn belt, but potentially more. Peoria, Illinois, faces a dry outlook to begin the new week today and Tuesday but showers are possible each day Wednesday-Sunday, a 40-60% daily risk. Perhaps corn planting would be able to progress in between showers.

Heavy Rain Potential Northern Great Plains

The northern spring wheat forecast in North Dakota and Minnesota is very stormy later this week. A strong storm system would encroach in the Northern Plains Friday night and Saturday turning weather conditions stormy and wet. One-inch rains are possible with locally strong thunderstorms. Spring wheat planting had not yet begun May 5, due to very cold field temperatures.

Hotter in Hard Red Winter Wheat, Severe Drought in Texas

The new outlook is suddenly hot in the Great Plains with only a few scattered showers in top bread wheat states Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The heat is a contrast to abnormal cold in March and April with recurring freezes on the High Plains.

Dodge City in southwest Kansas expects highs of 93-94 F today and Tuesday. Conditions would continue abnormally warm with mid 80s F to low 90s F the balance of the week and abnormally hot. Just a slight risk of showers is predicted. Kansas wheat is beginning to fill grain, a period when heavy rainfall is required for plump kernel development.

Texas wheat is deteriorating from intensifying drought. The last important rain occurred in early March. More than half the state’s wheat is produced in the panhandle, where topsoil moisture was 71% very short, 25% short and 4% adequate May 5. Seventy percent of state wheat poor or very poor. Texas producers who also raise cattle may turn cattle onto poor wheat land , using it as a feed grain, then planting another crop this spring sorghum, cotton or corn. Up to two-thirds of wheat acreage may go unharvested, due to severe drought, based on historical analogs.

EU Rapemeal Prices

13/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today. Old crop availability remains tight on lower production due to downtime and poor crush margins due to depressed demand for rapeseed oil. There are enough uncertainties surrounding new crop rapeseed production potential to put a floor under new crop prices for the time being.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: