Nogger's Blog

Chicago Up Again, With Old Crop Gaining The Most

27/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.96 3/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.62, up 3 1/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD427.40, up USD7.80; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.18, down 19 points. For the week as a whole May 12 beans gained 60 cents, with new crop Nov 12 up only 6 cents this has clearly been all about old crop. May 12 meal was USD21.40 higher on the week, with May 12 oil losing 65 points. Strong rumours of Chinese buying US beans appeared to have at least been partially confirmed with the USDA today reporting the sale of 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China plus 116,000 MT to "unknown". Informa Economics slashed their 2012 Argentine soybean production estimate from 45 MMT to 40 MMT. May 12 beans hit a fresh contract high of USD15.09 but failed to hold above the USD15/bu level in what was possibly a bit of pre-weekend profit-taking. Funds were said to have been net buyers of 6,000 soybean contracts on the day.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.53, up 29 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.38 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents. On the week overall May 12 corn was up 40 1/2 cents and Dec 12 up 2 cents. As with soybeans it was old crop that did almost all the gaining this week. The USDA today reported a whopping 1.44 MMT of new crop to "unknown" along with 120,000 MT of old crop to China in what was said to be the largest one day corn sale since 1991. Following reports of smaller sales earlier in the week, his brings the total sales to China/unknown to over 2.8 MMT this week, with almost 700 TMT of it coming off an already very tight old crop position. We now have front month May 12 at a USD1.14 1/4 cent premium to Dec 12 compared with 75 3/4 cents just a week ago. The trade already seems to be banking on an early harvest to alleviate some of this old crop tightness.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.42 1/4, up 16 1/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.46 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.74, up 6 1/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat added 26 1/2 cents, Kansas was up 20 1/2 cents and Minneapolis fell 17 cents. Spillover support from corn helped wheat today, along with widespread talk that the acute tightness in old crop corn is and will continue to boost demand for wheat from the feed sector. There's some continued talk of too dry in the south and freeze potential in the north. The Commitment of Traders report shows funds reducing their net short position in Chicago wheat by 11,500 contracts for the week through to Tuesday. Trade estimates have them further cutting that short by a similar amount since.

EU Wheat Higher, Aided By Large US Corn Sales To China

27/04/12 -- EU grains finished mostly higher with May 12 London wheat up GBP1.10/tonne to GBP178.50/tonne and Nov 12 up GBP1.95/tonne to GBP155.60/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat was EUR2.75/tonne higher at EUR213.70/tonne, new crop Nov 12 was up EUR2.25/tonne to EUR202.75/tonne.

For the week overall May 12 London wheat was GBP2.20/tonne higher, whilst Nov 12 was up GBP1.10/tonne. Conversely May 12 Paris wheat lost EUR2.80/tonne, with new crop Nov 12 down a nominal EUR0.25/tonne.

London wheat seems determined to attempt to continue to punch above its weight, with May 12 now around a EUR5.00/tonne premium to its Paris counterpart.

Reports continue to circulate that the drought has not yet been broken in Eastern Europe. In stark contrast the BBC report that April rainfall in England has been 165% of normal so far this month, with Wales at 130% and Scotland 121%.

The HGCA say that following the rain, the condition of winter wheat and barley here is very good.

Finally igniting what had been a lacklustre US corn market so far this week was the USDA confirming 1.56 MMT of US corn sold to China/unknown. That is apparently the largest one day corn sale since 1991, and would appear to finally back up last week's reports of heavy Chinese interest.

I wonder if they will back up this week's widely touted reports of significant soybean sales to the same buyer next week?

FranceAgriMer report that winter wheat crop conditions there improved slightly this week to 63% good excellent compared to 62% a week previously.

New crop Paris rapeseed was up around EUR4.00-5.00/tonne today following a Reuters report that Strategie Grains are now predicting an EU-27 crop of just 17.6 MMT this year. That would be almost 8% down on last year and represents a six year low.

Early Call On Chicago

27/04/12 -- The overnight gains saw soybeans around 10-12 cents higher, with corn up 2-6 cents and wheat 4-5 cents firmer. Crude is a bit weaker and so too the dollar - the latter should help the grains this afternoon.

The USDA have announced the sale of 120,000 MT of old crop corn to China along with a monster 1.44 MMT of new crop to "unknown". The trade has made a pretty good job of shrugging off these corn sales to unknown/China this week, let's see what it makes of that today.

In addition, the USDA have reported sales of 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China plus 116,000 MT to "unknown".

The IGC say that China's corn imports will jump 50% in 2012/13 to 6 MMT from 4 MMT this season. It already looks like that may be conservative.

Meanwhile Argy corn and soybean production estimates keep shrinking.

Yesterday's weekly export sales were strong for beans, corn and wheat. They were also heavily weighted in favour of old crop for beans and corn, no wonder the differential between the nearby and the deferred months widened yesterday, a trend that looks set to continue today judging by the overnight action.

For the week as a whole, including the overnight market, we have May beans up 46 3/4 cents, with new crop Nov rising a more modest 9 1/2 cents. May corn is up 27 1/2 and Dec up just a 1/4 cent. May wheat is up 15 cents.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat up 4-6 cents and soybeans 10-12 cents higher.

EU Rapemeal Prices

27/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are around a euro lower on old crop and one to three euros weaker on new crop this morning.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:

The Pain In Spain

27/04/12 -- It's been another bad week to be Spanish. Barcelona out of the Champions League, unemployment hits a record 5.64 million (nudging 25% of the entire workforce) and Standard and Poor’s downgrading them two notches and warning that it is already considering a further cut.

Now we hear that Spanish retail sales were down 3.7% in March - the 21st month in row sales have fallen. Unemployed people don't tend to shop that much do they?

On top of that figures due out on Monday are expected to confirm that the country has fallen back into recession. Welcome to the club.

Chicago Close - Thursday

26/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.81 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.58 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD419.60, up USD5.70; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.37, down 28 points. A widening of the gap between old cro and new crop was a feature for both beans and meal on the day. Weekly export sales were strong and above expectations at a combined 1.4 MMT, slanted 926,200 MT in favour of a tight old crop supply. China accounted for 603,800 MT of that along with a further 365,000 MT of new crop. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. With the Argentine soybean harvest now past halfway (56%) the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange cut their production estimate by 1 MMT to 43 MMT, pegging yields at 35 bu/acre.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.24, up 13 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.35, down 3 cents. Corn also saw the old crop/new crop spread widen, reflecting tight old crop supplies. Weekly export sales of a combined 826,200 MT were also tilted in favour of old crop at 645,600 MT. China popped up as a buyer of 37,300 MT old crop and 66,800 MT of new crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut their Argentine corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 19.8 MMT. There are widespread reports of elevators and ethanol producers struggling to find corn left for sale in the country, resulting in basis levels rising. It could be a heck of a long time to new crop.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.26, up 9 1/2 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.39 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.67 3/4, down 15 cents. Weekly export sales of a combined 744 TMT beat expectations for sales of 350-700 TMT. China took a 58,000 MT cargo of the new crop sales. That seems to confirm that US wheat is competitively priced on the world stage. Algeria recently passed on Argentine wheat due to quality concerns. Early talk is that Argentine farmers will plant less wheat this year due to their dissatisfaction with government price control measures. Lingering drought in Eastern Europe is also attracting some attention.

EU Wheat Close - Thursday

26/04/12 -- EU grains finished mixed with May 12 London wheat closing GBP1.90/tonne higher at GBP177.40/tonne, but with new crop months GBP0.35/tonne lower. Paris wheat did the opposite with May 12 Paris wheat falling EUR1.50/tonne to EUR211.00/tonne and new crop months adding EUR0.50-0.75/tonne.

There are some reports of dryness lingering in Eastern Europe even though the drought in Western Europe has been well and truly broken.

The International Grains Council today reduced their estimate for world 2012/12 wheat production by 5 MMT from last month to 676 MMT, citing "worse than expected winter damage and recent dry conditions" in Europe.

That represents a fall of 2.7% on last year, although corn production is seen more than making up for that deficit with 2012/13 output rising 4% to a record 900 MMT.

US wheat was higher on ideas that hot weather in the southwest Plains and a low-to-moderate freeze threat for parts of the northern and eastern Midwest may cause some light damage.

Also lending support to US wheat was news that weekly export sales there beat trade expectations of 350-700 TMT, coming in at 744,000 TMT.

Brussels issued soft wheat export licences fo 223,500 MT this past week, bringing the 2011/12 year to date total to 11.3 MMT, almost a third down on where we were a year ago.

Commissioning at the Vivergo bioethanol plant in Hull is now said to be 46% complete.

EU Rapemeal Prices

26/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer today following firmer Chicago soymeal last night.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Chicago Soybeans End Off Highs

25/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.73 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.70 1/2, up 18 1/2 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD413.90, up USD1.80; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.65, up 36 points. Beans and meal closed well off early session highs, dragged down by weakness in corn and wheat it would seem. Widely touted reports of sales to China in the past day or two remain as yet unconfirmed by the USDA. That make tomorrow's weekly export sales report interesting with the trade anticipating sales in the region of 800 TMT - 1.25 MMT. meal sales are also expected to be high. Funds were said to be net buyers of 7,000 soybean contracts on the day, sending prices to new highs for this move. Soybean prices in Brazil are also said to be at their highest since 2008, which is pretty spectacular considering that they are only just wrapping up their harvest.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.11, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.38, down 3 1/2 cents. The USDA reported the sale of 420,000 MT of new crop corn to "unknown" along with 172,500 MT of new crop confirmed as China plus an additional 90,000 MT of old crop corn to China. That follows on from the sale of 480,000 MT of US corn to "unknown" on Tuesday. Interestingly both days those confirmed sales met with a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" response. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be in the region of 550 TMT - 1 MMT. The weekly ethanol grind was reported to be 254.3 million gallons, an eight week low as demand from that sector continues to wane. Funds were said to have sold 12,000 corn contracts on the day

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.16 1/2, down 8 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.32, down 1 cent; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.82 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents. Weakness in corn spilled over into wheat, with reports of a very early harvest getting underway in some parts of southern Texas. Funds were estimated to have sold 2,500 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Saudi Arabia is tendering for 440,000 MT of wheat and Jordan is in for 100,000 MT. Algeria is said to have passed on Argentine wheat this week due to quality issues, which should help keep US wheat as amongst the most competitively priced around. Western Europe seems to have drawn a line under its drought, although there is some talk of problems still persisting in Eastern Europe.

EU Wheat Close - Wednesday

25/04/12 -- EU grains finished mostly lower with May 12 London wheat unchanged GBP175.50/tonne, whilst new crop Nov 12 fell GBP1.55/tonne to close at GBP154.00/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat ended EUR2.00/tonne lower at EUR212.50/tonne, Nov 12 was EUR2.00/tonne easier at EUR200.00/tonne.

Support from another day of sharply higher Chicago soybean/meal futures failed to spill over into the grain again today.

It seems that we are stuck in a trend where grains edge lower despite oilseeds attempting to drag them higher.

On the year to date we have Chicago wheat down 3%, Chicago corn down 3.5%, yet beans are up 24% and meal is up by a staggering 35.6%

German trading house Toepfer today forecast wheat production there at 22.2 MMT, down fhalf a million from 22.7 MMT last year, with corn at 4.89 MMT, down from 5.2 MMT last season. Both estimates are in line with recent ones from Coceral.

Winterkill destroyed 29% of Poland's winter sowings this year, according to the country's statistical office. That land will be resown mostly with spring barley and corn it would seem.

Heavy rain across most of the UK today will have further eased drought fears. Much of France and Germany are in for the same as the week wears on.

Early Call On Chicago

25/04/12 -- The overnight grains see soybeans 28 cents higher on old crop and 15-16 cents higher on old crop. Corn and wheat are up around 4-6 cents. Crude is barely changed as too is the US dollar.

Soybeans lead the way once again, with talk now surfacing that the Argy crop will struggle to hit the 40 MMT mark (the USDA currently say 45 MMT).

Argentina's crop keeps shrinking, and with that the increased risk of disruptions in supply from a seller already tarnished with a history of unreliability.

Brazil appears to have hung up the "we are currently over capacity, please try again later" sign.

So if you want beans now from a reliable supplier there's really only one shop open.

There is talk that China bought up to half a million tonnes of US soybeans yesterday, there's no confirmation of that yet from the USDA. If true that would seem to confirm that they are having trouble buying South American soybean for the time slots they want.

Beans ARE heavily overbought, but not without significant support from underlying bullish fundamentals. The market can ill afford a serious US weather scare this summer, and let's face it we normally get at least one or two.

The USDA have today reported the sale of 420,000 MT of new crop corn to "unknown" along with 172,500 MT of new crop confirmed as China plus an additional 90,000 MT of old crop corn to China.

Yesterday's confirmed sales met with a "buy the rumour sell the fact" insipid response, it will be interesting to see if the same is true today.

The early call on this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat 4-6 cents higher, soybeans up 25-30 cents.

EU Rapemeal Prices

25/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher this morning, in line with steep gains in Chicago soymeal last night and again this morning.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:

Can Soybeans Keep Moving In The Opposite Direction To Corn & Wheat?

25/04/12 -- The overnight soy market continues to rise I see, with beans 20-24 cents higher nearby and meal now up 8-9 dollars. How much more upside is there?

Considering that the Argy crop is shrinking on a weekly basis, and probably hasn't done with it's contraction yet, Brazil's port are said to be "maxed up" with exports, the Chinese keep coming back for more whatever the price and we haven't even had a US weather scare yet then there could be plenty more upside yet IMHO.

Can soybeans keep moving in the opposite direction to corn & wheat, or will they ultimately get dragged higher too?

Based on where the overnights currently stand we have CBOT wheat down 4% on the month so far, with corn down 3%. Yet beans are up 6% and meal is up 8%.

On the year to date we have wheat down 3%, corn down 3.5%, yet beans are up 24% and meal is up by 35.6% so the answer seems to be yes they can move in opposite directions, in fact they've been doing a pretty good job of it lately.

Forget about Chinese demand for corn, it's Chinese demand for soybeans that's driving the market.

The Morning Vibe

25/04/12 -- Heavy rain is forecast for many parts of the UK again today, with planty also on the cards for France, the low countries and western Germany. A bit of warmth to go with it wouldn't go amiss. There's a chance that the south east might see 17C by Saturday but that's about as warm as it gets, according to the BBC.

Soybeans put in another impressive performance last night, which has continued into the overnight market where front month May is currently 16 3/4 cents higher at USD14.78 - the highest for a front month since September 2008.

That's interesting as I was listening to an audio report just yesterday morning that said if beans break through USD14.66 then the next resistance level is USD16.00!! Audio link here. Click on the play button in what looks like an ad to the left of "This morning’s large corn sale to unknown destinations".

Talk of soybean crop losses in Argentina due to a hard freeze are catching the eye, as too is news of Oil World and Michael Cordonnier cutting their estimates there by 1.5 MMT and 2.0 MMT respectively yesterday. The latter's 41.5 MMT is now 3.5 MMT below the USDA's latest effort.

The UK economy is officially back in recession, although you'd be forgiven for not having noticed that we'd climbed out of the last one.

US cattle futures closed limit down last night after the USDA confirmed BSE had been found in a dairy cow  at a rendering facility in central California. More on this including a video interview with the USDA’s chief veterinarian here. The message is consumers can be confident in safety in the food supply chain. In a quick vote of confidence South Korean retailers have reportedly already pulled American beef from their shelves.

Chicago Soybeans Hit Highest Since 2008

24/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.61 1/4, up 24 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.52, up 10 1/2 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD412.10, up USD12.30; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.29, up 20 points. For soybeans this was the highest close for a front month since the big pre-sub prime price spike of 2008 when crude oil went to USD147/barrel. Funds were said to have added around 8,000 contracts to their already substantial length, but with strong justification from the fundamentals. As the Argentine harvest progresses, yields continue to disappoint and production forecasts are getting cut on a weekly basis. Oil World lopped 1.5 MMT off their estimate today to 42.5 MMT, whilst local analyst Michael Cordonnier cut his by 2 MMT to 41.5 MMT and warned that further cuts are possible. A surprise, and early, hard freeze in Argentina may also have caused some damage. Meanwhile we continue to see solid demand from China, who would normally have switched it's attention to South America by now, but they keep coming back to buy US beans on an almost daily basis.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.18 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.41 1/2, down 4 cents. With the USDA confirming the sale of 480,000 MT of US corn to "unknown" today, you would have expected a firmer close, but what we got was a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" reaction. There would seem to be a distinct possibility that further sales to "unknown" are likely in the next few days. Stats Canada pegged the all wheat acreage there 3 million up on last year and almost a million higher than the average trade guess for a 13.3% increase on 2011. Corn for grain acreage is seen rising 18.4% compared with last year's wash-out. The market may have been a little spooked by the USDA announcing a confirmed case of BSE in a dairy cow in California sending cattle prices limit down at the close.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.24 1/2, down 1/2 cent; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.33, down 2 1/4 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.84 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents. Wheat showed double digit gains early on but got dragged lower by corn as the session wore on. The Stats Canada numbers were bearish for wheat, showing spring wheat plantings up 9% to 17.178 million acres and durum wheat up 27% to 5.1 million acres. Chicago wheat fared better than its Kansas and Minneapolis counterparts on short-covering. Freeze prospects for the weekend kept a floor on declines given the rapid progress that has been made with spring wheat plantings in northern states. In contrast, the forward condition of winter wheat means  that harvesting of that is right around the corner.

EU Wheat Closing Comments - Tuesday

24/04/12 -- EU grains finished mixed with May 12 London wheat up GBP1.50/tonne to GBP175.50/tonne and Nov 12 up GBP0.75/tonne to GBP155.55/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR214.50/tonne, new crop Nov 12 was unchanged at EUR202.00/tonne.

In euro terms May 12 London wheat closed at parity with May 12 Paris wheat, yet Nov 12 was more than a EUR10.00/tonne discount.

The USDA confirmed the sale of 480,000 MT of old crop US corn to "unknown" - widely assumed to be China. That would appear to be at least partial confirmation of the recent widely reported business between the two parties.

Should China ultimately emerge as a significant corn buyer in the ensuing 18 months, as looks possible, then that could underpin the entire grains complex going forward.

China is supposedly sitting on 46% of the world's corn stocks, according to the USDA. Yet domestic prices there are amongst the highest in the world, approaching USD10/bushel on the Dalian Exchange.

The inference that maybe they have exagerrated previous production levels seems fairly clear.

Stats Canada were out today with their estimates on plantings, placing their all wheat area at 24.32 million acres, almost a million above the 23.4 million that the trade was expecting and 13.3% up on last year.

US winter wheat crop conditions fell slighty this week to 63% good/excellent, although that is vastly superior to the 35% that we had a year ago. Maturity is also well ahead of normal with 42% of the crop headed versus 15% on average. Spring wheat plantings are also advanced at 57% done compared with 19% normally. Emergence of the latter is 18% against just 4% on average.

April has turned out to be a much heavier rainfall month that March across Europe, and that trend looks continuing into May, underpinning any further crop loss potential here.

Early Call On Chicago

23/04/12 -- The overnight gains saw soybeans around 10-12 higher, with corn up 2-3 cents and wheat 4-6 cents firmer. Crude is a bit steadier and the dollar a little weaker, both of which should help the grains.

Stats Canada are out today with their estimates on plantings there, placing the all wheat area at 24.32 million acres, almost a million above the 23.4 million that the trade was expecting and 13.3% up on last year.

The rapeseed area is seen at 20.37 million acres, slightly lower than the anticipated 20.6 million, but still a record and 8% up on last year.

The announcement just out from the USDA of the sale of 480,000 MT of old crop corn to unknown will get a few excited this afternoon no doubt. It looks like the Chinese rumours were true, and if they were then there could be more announcements to come as 1 MMT was the widely touted volume, with some suggesting significantly more than that.

China is sitting on 46% of the world's corn stocks, according to the USDA. Yet domestic prices there are amongst the highest in the world, approaching USD10/bushel on the Dalian Exchange, with soybeans around USD19/bushel and soymeal USD550/tonne.

We have talk of a freeze in both the US and Argentina potentially harming newly planted or about to be harvested corn & soybeans.

The USDA last night pegged spring corn planting at 28% complete, which although that is well ahead of normal is actually a fair bit lower than the trade was expecting.

Winter wheat maturity is well advanced, and there must be plenty of growers hoping that an early harvest will mean an opportunity to plant double crop beans or corn.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 4-5 cents, soybeans up 8-10 cents, corn up 3-5 cents.

EU Rapemeal Prices

23/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit easier today following losses in Chicago soymeal last night.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Chicago Closing Comments Monday

23/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.37 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.41 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD399.80, down USD6.20; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.09, down 74 points. Funds had a change of heart after Friday's big rally, selling an estimate 5,000 soybean lots on the day, and so we moved lower.  Weekly US export inspections were disappointing at 12 million bushels, although another sale of 165,000 MT of old crop soybeans to unknown was supportive. After the close the USDA said that US spring soybean plantings are 6% complete versus the five year average of 2% at this time.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.22 1/2, up 10 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.45 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents. Corn and wheat gained on beans today, reversing Friday's trade. Funds were said to have bought around 10,000 contracts on the day. We still don't have any official confirmation of lat week's widely rumoured Chinese business, although the USDA today reported the sale of 120,000 MT of new crop corn  to unknown.  Weekly US export inspections were reported at over 29 million bushels, with 2.57 million heading for China. After the close the USDA said that US spring corn plantings are 28% complete versus 17% last week and 15% on the five year average.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.25, up 9 1/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.34, up 8 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.91 3/4, up 3/4 cent. Wheat followed corn higher helped by weekly wheat export inspections of more than 24 million bushels, which was above trade estimates. After the close the USDA said that spring wheat planting is well advanced at 57% done, versus 37% last week and just 6% a year ago. Winter wheat conditions fell one point in the good/excellent category to 63%. Stats Canada are out tomorrow with their 2012 wheat planting estimate, the trade is expecting an increase in area of around 8-10%.

EU Wheat Mixed, Rapeseed Reaches New Highs

23/04/12 -- EU grains finished mixed with May 12 London wheat closing GBP2.30/tonne lower at GBP174.00/tonne, but with new crop months fractionally higher. May 12 Paris wheat fell EUR1.50/tonne to EUR215.00/tonne, new crop months also lower. May 12 Paris rapeseed ended EUR3.75/tonne higher at EUR505.00/tonne, the highest level for a front month since January 2011.

The notion that old crop London wheat had developed ideas above its station appears to possibly have been confirmed in the last couple of sessions. Even so, GBP174.00/tonne is still the equivalent of around EUR213.50/tonne, a historically very modest discount to Paris wheat.

The European Commission's crop-monitoring unit MARS reduced it's EU-27 rapeseed and barley yield expectations for 2012 compared with last month, although they still say that in general prospects are average this year.

Some winterkill damage has been done on the continent it would seem, although in the UK, they say that “crop growth and development is more precocious due to warmer than usual conditions. Drought may not cause much problem to winter crops if current April rains continue."

It certainly looks like they will.

Overall they peg EU-27 wheat yields 1.1% higher than last year at 5.36 MT/ha, with the UK enjoying a 4.1% rise to 8.07 MT/ha. EU barley yields are forecast up by 1.1% to 4.39 MT/ha, with those here seen rising a bit better than that, up 2.7% to 5.82 MT/ha.

Rapeseed looks set to be the drop that has suffered most here at the hands of Mother Nature, with UK yields seen falling 12.6% to 3.44 MT/ha, although that is from record levels in 2011. It should also be noted that UK plantings are forecast up sharply too, so all in all we may end up with output not too far short of last year's record 2.8 MMT.

The reduction in UK yields is a result of "recent rains are coinciding with the flowering stage, and they might hamper pollination", they say.

Tomorrow Stats Canada will report on rapeseed plantings there with a record area expected. Precipitation has increased significantly in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba in recent weeks, easing drought concerns, according to Martell Crop Projections.

EU Rapemeal Prices

23/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher this morning, in line with steep gains in Chicago soymeal on Friday night, where prices closed at their highest levels since 2009.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: