Chicago Grains Mixed, Beans Lower Despite Strong Exports
29/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite weekly export sales of over 2 MMT for 2015/16 being up 8 percent from the previous week and 19 percent above the prior 4-week average. They were also right at the top end of trade expectations of 1.6-2.0 MMT. China took 1.4 MMT. Exports of 2.8 MT were also a marketing-year high, and were up 25 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination again was China (1,739,600 MT). Meal sales this week came in at 218,700 MT for 2015/16 and exports themselves were 329,300 MT. The IGC raised their estimate for the world soybean crop in 2015/16 by 2 MMT, but increased consumption by a similar amount keeping ending stocks unchanged. Both Brazil and Argentina's new crop production estimates were raised 1 MMT each to 99 MMT and 57 MMT respectively. China's imports were increased from 79.5 MMT to a new record 80 MMT. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their estimates for the global 2015/16 soybean crop and also that in the US this year (the latter being at 3.863 billion bushels). South Korea's NOFI are tendering for 55,000 MT of SOuth American soymeal for Mar/Apr shipment. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.78 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.80 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $301.60, up $1.70; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.88, down 23 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents higher, reversing yesterday's losses. Weekly export sales of 708,800 MT for 2015/16 were up noticeably from the previous week and 34 percent above the prior 4-week average. They also easily beat trade expectations for sales of a modest 300-500,000 MT. Even so, marketing year sales are still far smaller than they were last year at this time. Exports of 433,300 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The main homes were all nearby destinations: Mexico, Coumbia, Peru etc., perhaps indicating that US corn is still finding it difficult to make inroads into "non-traditional" homes further afield with corn. The IGC raised their forecast for the global corn crop by 3 MMT from last month to 970 MMT, and also increased ending stocks by 1 MMT to 200 MMT. Brazil's new crop corn potential was increased from 78.0 MMT to 81.4 MMT. South Africa's crop was pared back from 13.0 MMT to 12.5 MMT and Ukraine's cut from 24.5 MMT to 23.0 MMT. MDA CropCast cut their global corn crop estimate by 2.68 MMT from a week ago, with 2.2 MMT of that coming from South Africa where they now only see output at 10.8 MMT. Argentina's crop was reduced 0.48 MMT to 21.6 MMT. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest was now 73.2% complete at 10.2 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Indonesia said that the country would harvest 8.8 MMT of corn in 2015/16 versus 9.1 MMT a year previously. Production is though heavily dependent on rains in November and December, they noted. Despite the fall in output, imports are also expected to drop, down to 3.2 MMT from 3.5 MMT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.80, up 4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.89 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished the day higher, helped by a reversal in the dollar's fortunes today. Weekly export sales of 550,300 MT for delivery in 2015/16 were also up 54 percent from the previous week and 86 percent above the prior 4-week average, if albeit fairly average and in line with expectations of 350,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports of 320,200 MT were up 51 percent from the previous week, but down 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The IGC cut 1 MMT off their estimate for the 2015/16 world wheat crop and trimmed 2 MMT off carryout. "The wheat crop is still expected to be a new high, but the forecast is slightly lower month on month, including a downgrade for Australia owing to overly dry conditions," they said. Australia's crop was cut from 25.5 MMT to 24.0 MMT, which is now in line with most other trade estimates (except the USDA). Argentina's crop was trimmed back by 0.5 MMT to 10.4 MMT, and the US all wheat crop cut from 58.5 MMT to 55.8 MMT. There were increases though for Europe (155.5 MMT to 157.7 MMT), Ukraine (25.5 MMT to 26.0 MMT), Russia (60.0 MMT to 60.6 MMT) and Canada (25.5 MMT to 26.1 MMT). MDA CropCast were unchanged on their estimates for the global wheat crop and US output (the latter seen at 2.218 billion bushels). Egypt's Egypt GASC bought 240,000 MT of wheat for December shipment from France, Poland and Romania. Russian wheat was interestingly priced out. Russia's 2015 wheat harvest is just about ended at a reported 63.8 MMT in bunker weight. Russia's domestic purchases for the intervention fund have picked up in the last week or two. Russian winter grain plantings for the 2016 harvest are said to be 91.6% complete. Ukraine's are about 84% done. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.15, up 9 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.88 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.20, up 4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, But Seemingly Rangebound
29/10/15 -- EU grains traded mostly higher Thursday. French markets continue to garner support from a weak euro, and the outlook for it to depreciate further. That closed at little more than 1.09 versus the US dollar last night and near 1.40 against the pound.
At the close, Nov 15 London wheat was up GBP0.65/tonne at GBP114.95/tonne. In Paris, Dec 15 wheat was EUR2.75/tonne firmer at EUR180.75/tonne, Nov 15 corn was EUR1.50/tonne higher at EUR166.50/tonne and Nov 15 rapeseed (which has been displaying some erratic behaviour this week prior to going off the board tomorrow) jumped EUR5.25/tonne to EUR375.75/tonne.
London wheat remains stuck around the GBP115/tonne area, and hasn't closed outside of GBP112.50-117/tonne in more than a month, note the HGCA.
"There hasn’t really been sufficient news to impact prices or set a clear direction recently. However, the recent strength of sterling against the euro has meant that UK feed wheat futures haven’t benefitted from some of the recent gains in Paris Dec-15 wheat futures," they said.
Dec 15 Paris wheat meanwhile hasn't closed outside of the EUR175-181/tonne range so far this month either.
Egypt's GASC were back in the market for wheat for Dec 1-10 shipment. They finished up buying two cargoes of French and one each of Polish and Romanian wheat.
Interestingly on an FOB basis the cheapest offer was the Polish material (at $195.74/tonne), followed by French (at $197.64/tonne and $198.24/tonne) and the most expensive ones were all Russian! On a C&F basis Romanian wheat was the cheapest, by virtue of a much lower freight rate.
Reuters reported that Algeria are in the market for at least 50,000 MT of hard wheat for Dec/Jan shipment, and also that Jordan had once more cancelled their tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat due to lack of offers and then immediately re-tendered for the same quantity again. Trade sources say that the contract criteria for the Jordan business is too stringent for many, which explains seller reluctance.
The Russian 2015 wheat and barley harvests are both just about over at a reported 63.8 MMT and 18.2 MMT respectively (in bunker weight). The corn harvest is ongoing at 73.2% done at 10.2 MMT with yields of 5.10 MT/ha being some 12% ahead of last year.
Russian winter grain plantings are now said to be complete on 91.6% of the planned area at 15.7 million ha, some 600,000 ha less than this time a year ago.
The Russian weather forecast is colder and drier than normal through to the end of the month. After that dryness continues, but there is a chance for warmer than normal temperatures creeping in during the 8-15 day forecast, according to the CMC weather model at least. The GFS model keeps things cold right through until the middle of November.
Ukraine said that they'd exported 25.9 MMT of grains in the first 9 months of 2015, a 13.6% increase on a year ago. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that winter wheat plantings there were now 86% complete, with winter barley sowings at 67% and winter rapeseed 76% done.
The IGC were out this afternoon with their latest global grain supply and demand report.
In that they trimmed the size of the global 2015/16 wheat crop by 1 MMT, and knocked 2 MMT off world ending stocks. World corn production was increased by 3 MMT, and carryout upped 1 MMT however, pretty much cancelling each other out.
Chicago Grains End Lower, Pressured By Firmer US Dollar
28/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed easier, and at the lowest level in three weeks on harvest pressure and a firmer US dollar. Demand for beans and meal remains robust though. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the 1.6-2.0 MMT area. Meal sales are expected to be in the region of 150,000 to 350,000 MT. Dr Cordonnier was said to have left his 2015/16 Brazilian bean production estimate unchanged at a record 100 MMT, but took 2 MMT of the outlook for Argentina to 58 MMT. "With the prospect of yet another record large soybean crop in 2015/16, various agricultural related industries in Brazil want the Brazilian government to increase the blending of vegetable oil into the nation's diesel fuel. Currently, the requirement is that petroleum diesel must be blended with 7% vegetable oil (B7) and the industries want that increased to a 10% blend (B10). Brazil has been at a B7 blend since November of 2014," he said. Next year's Ukraine rapeseed crop already looks to be in big trouble. Only around two thirds of the intended area got sown this year, and at least 20% of that isn't thought to have yet germinated. Add on some winter-kill losses to poorly established crops and production in 2016 might not be much more than 1 MMT - the lowest since at least 2007. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.81 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.82 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $299.90, down $4.80; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 28.11, up 22 points.
Corn: The corn market settled around 3-4 cents lower. Harvest pressure, sluggish exports and a firmer dollar all added to the bearish tone. Reports also that Chinese importers were to temporarily suspend buying US DDGS also leans bearish. They are apparently worried that Beijing is looking at introducing new anti-dumping measure on the commodity as it struggles to get rid of it's own enormous domestic corn surplus. The US Energy Dept confirmed weekly ethanol production at 944,000 barrels per day, down 7,000 bpd from the previous week, which was another negative today. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest was now 72.6% complete at 10.1 MMT, with a record crop this year now looking assured. Potential winter wheat crop losses there this year could also mean further increases in corn production in 2016 too it is thought. Ukraine said that they'd exported 2.22 MMT of corn so far in 2015/16. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly corn export sales report are a modest 300-500,000 MT. Corn prices are also suffering from the strong showing by Mr. Macri in the Argentine presidential elections at the weekend. A win for him ultimately could lead to increased corn exports from the country. Bloomberg report that South African farmers will plant 6.3 million acres to corn, the lowest area since 2011. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.76, down 4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.86, down 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The market closed mixed, but with little overall dramatic change. Concerns remain about newly planted US and FSU winter wheat. One analyst is already forecasting next year's Russian wheat crop at around 55 MMT versus the 63.8 MMT in bunker weight that they are said to have harvested this year. Ukraine's crop is also in trouble, with only 84% of the intended area planted so far, and emergence low. We are already passed the optimum planting time for winter wheat there too. Meanwhile the USDA reported worse than expected US winter wheat crop conditions in its first crop report of the season on Monday night. In other news, the USDA's FAS in Australia estimated their wheat crop this year at 24 MMT, which is 3 MMT below the current USDA's own forecast. Global competition for business is fierce though. Reuters report the Philippines buying 55,000 MT of what is thought likely to be South American feed wheat for March shipment. There are reports of Mexico booking French wheat in preference to product from near neighbour the US. Egypt are back in the market for wheat for Dec 1-10 shipment, with the results expected tomorrow. Few would expect US wheat to feature there. French wheat might get a look in though. Kazakhstan reported that their 2015 grain harvest is just about over at 19.9 MMT, up sharply on 16.2 MMT a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the range of 350,000 to 600,000 MT. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.06, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.85 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16, up 1/4 cent.
EU Grains Trade Mostly Lower On Demand Worries
28/10/15 -- EU grains were mixed, but generally a bit lower on demand worries. Media headlines that eating processed meat is now officially as bad for you as smoking cigarettes don't help.
At the close, Nov 15 London wheat was down GBP0.60/tonne at GBP114.30/tonne, Dec 15 Paris wheat was down EUR1.50/tonne at EUR178.00/tonne, Nov 15 Paris corn was EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR165.00/tonne, whilst Nov 15 Paris rapeseed was unchanged at EUR370.50/tonne.
Russia say that their 2015 harvest may now come in pretty close to last year's record. They've currently harvested 105.3 MMT in bunker weight (versus 107.3 MMT this time a year ago), off 98% of the planned area.
Wheat accounts for 63.8 MMT of that, and barley a further 18.2 MMT, with both of those harvests said to now be 99.7% complete. The Russian corn harvest is reported at 72.6% done at 10.1 MMT, which still leaves them firmly on target for a record crop this year.
APK Inform estimated Russia's 2015/16 corn exports at a record 4.5 MMT, up more than 40% on 3.2 MMT last season.
Rusagrotrans forecast total Russian grain exports this month at 3.5 MMT, up marginally on 3.42 MMT a year ago. They see November exports at 3.2 MMT versus 2.98 MMT in 2014.
Wheat exports will account for around 77% of the total in both months, they predict.
The Russian Ag Ministry say that winter plantings for the 2016 harvest are 91.5% complete on 15.6 million ha, down 700,000 ha on a year ago.
The forecast remains generally drier than normal, casting a doubt over 2016 production potential. The head of Swiss-based Solaris Commodities said that they expect wheat production in Russia next year to not be as generous as in 2014 and 2015, and maybe come in at around 55 MMT. They will probably at least partially compensate for that by producing more corn next year though, he added.
Ukraine's winter plantings are similarly effected by the same conditions as southern Russia. The head of the Ukraine Weather Centre is predicting a cold snap Oct 29-Nov 1, with night-time temperatures falling to between -1 and -7 C.
He said that he can't ever recall winter wheat being sown this late in Ukraine, and that an estimated 30% of what has been planted has yet to germinate. Sowing of winter rapeseed has now finished, with only around two thirds of the intended area getting planted, he added.
UkrAgroConsult said yesterday that it was now safe to write off at least 20% of the winter rapeseed crop, and more pessimistically maybe 35%. That points to very low production next year.
Exports out of Ukraine still continue unabashed though. From Jul 1 to Oct 27 Ukraine exported 12.56 MMT of grains, including 7.11 MMT of wheat, 3.19 MMT of barley and 2.22 MMT of corn.
Kazakhstan meanwhile say that they've now harvested 99.9% of their 2015 grain crop, producing 19.9 MMT so far, an increase of nearly 23% on a year ago.
Algeria said that they'd imported 9.9 MMT of grains in the first 9 months of 2015, up 8% year-on-year. Soft wheat imports of 4.95 MMT represent a 21% increase compared with the same period in 2014.
Chicago Beans End Higher, But Other Grains Mostly Lower
27/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher in typical Turnaround Tuesday trade. Fresh news was scarce. Good demand for meal adds support for beans. South Korea's MFG were said to have bought 120,000 MT of optional origin meal for May shipment. There's talk that the Philippines has bought 55,000 MT of US meal for March shipment. Cuba were said to have bought US meal yesterday. The market must wait until December for a run-off in the Presidential elections in Argentina. That may keep farmers there sitting on their hands a little while longer yet. The Argentine Ag Ministry report growers to be 73% sold on their 2014/15 soybean crop versus 66% a year ago. On new crop they are said to be only a little over 1% sold. Planting of new crop is just about underway. Indonesia is said to be debating putting a 10% import tariff on soybeans. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.91 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.91, up 6 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.70, up $2.50; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.89, up 11 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents lower, also in "Turnaround Tuesday" style, essentially reversing yesterday's gains. There are reports of a Brazilian corn cargo being en route to the US east coast, which leans bearish coming as it does right in the middle of the harvest. The Argentine Ag Ministry said growers there are 78% sold on old crop corn versus 82% a year ago. On new crop they are said to be 2% sold, about the same as a year ago. Ukraine said that their 2015 corn harvest was 70% complete on 2.86 million ha for a crop of 14.78 MMT to date. That suggests that the current USDA estimate for a final harvest of 25 MMT is still way too high. They are however switching their export efforts to corn, which accounted for 46% of exports via seaports last week, compared to wheat's 34% market share. In contrast, in Russia, corn only accounted for little more than 4% of exports via seaports last week. The EU Commission's MARS unit increased their forecast for corn yields there this year to 6.47 MT/ha, although that's still more than 20% down on a year ago. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.89 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower, consolidating a little on yesterday's impressive gains. The USDA confirmed that the newly planted US winter wheat crop hasn't got off to a great start, pegging only 47% of the crop as good to excellent last night. There are worries too that winter wheat in Ukraine and Russia is poorly established due to persistent dryness, and not greatly equipped to cope with the typically harsh FSU winter. Winter grain planting in Ukraine is said to be 1 million ha behind where it was in each of the last 2 years at just over 6 million ha, or 82% of the original government target. Wheat is said to be 84% planted, and barley only 61% done. Things are a bit more advanced in Russia, but it's the condition of what has been sown that is causing concern. Russian seaports exported 447.7 TMT of grains last week of which 88.5% was wheat. Syria bought 200,000 MT of soft milling wheat in a tender. Jordan are in the market for 100,000 MT of hard wheat. Argentine growers are said to be fully sold on old crop wheat and 3% committed on new crop. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.09 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.88, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.15 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Correct A Little Lower - But Winter Crops Concerns Remain In Eastern Europe/FSU
27/10/15 -- EU grains closed almost universally lower, with wheat correcting some of yesterday's gains. Nearby Paris rapeseed is suddenly under a bit of pressure prior to that contracts expiry on Friday.
At the finish, Nov 15 London wheat was down GBP0.35/tonne at GBP114.90/tonne. In Paris, Dec 15 wheat was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR179.50/tonne, Nov 15 corn was down EUR1.25/tonne at EUR164.75/tonne and Nov 15 rapeseed was down EUR4.25/tonne to EUR370.50/tonne, although other months fell much more modestly.
The pound was under a bit of pressure today following the news that UK Q3 growth fell to 0.5% from 0.7% on Q2 and slightly below analyst expectations of 0.6%.
"The sowing of winter cereals has progressed without major problems in the EU’s largest producing countries, France, Germany and the UK," said the EU Commission's MARS unit.
However "dry conditions have persisted in Poland, Lithuania, western Ukraine and southern Russia. In these regions, the winter crops sown in September germinated under unfavourable conditions which further worsened due to the low temperatures that occurred in October," they noted.
"In Ukraine and Russia, the minimum temperatures dropped below zero in October, which is quite early compared to the normal thermal regime. The most critical regions are in western Ukraine and southern Russia, where the prolonged lack of precipitation is coupled with low temperatures and, consequently, seeds germinated under very unfavourable conditions," they added.
UkrAgroConsult said that relatively weak rains in Ukraine during the second half of October improved soil moisture only slightly. This was not enough to help late-seeded rapeseed to germinate, with almost half the crop at risk, they suggested.
Even if Ukraine was to get more or less ideal weather conditions from hereon in you could now safely write off at least 20% of the crop, and more pessimistically (which is where they stand) maybe 35%. Considering that the last time the Ukraine Ag Ministry reported on winter rapeseed plantings they were only around 75% complete, that all adds up to a sharply reduced crop in 2016.
The Ag Ministry there are still reporting on winter grain plantings, and have these at 82% complete on a fraction over 6 million ha, that's down 1 million ha on each of the last 2 years, and 1.5 million ha below the area sown in 2012.
Winter wheat planting is said to be 85% complete, and only 61% of the originally intended winter barley area has so far been seeded.
Meanwhile the 2015 Ukraine corn harvest is now reported at 70% complete at 14.78 MMT. That suggest final production of around 21.1 MMT, which is way below the USDA's expected 25 MMT.
APK Inform say that Ukraine seaports exported 923.4 TMT of grains last week, of which 46% (425.7 TMT) was corn, and 34% (314.3 TMT) was wheat.
Russian seaports shipped out 447.7 TMT of grains, of which 88.5% (393.3 TMT) was wheat in the same period, they add.
Syria are said to have bought 200,000 MT of soft milling wheat at around EUR192.50/tonne C&F.
Chicago Wheat Jumps On Short-Covering, Corn Follows But Beans Lag
26/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite strength in wheat and corn. The market seemed concerned over the initial results of the Argentine election over the weekend, in which opposition challenger Macri forced run-off in a tight vote. An ultimate victory for him potentially means more beans and meal coming onto the world market from Argentina. For now though, producers are likely to keep a lid on their sales until they get a definitive election result, it is thought. In Brazil, IMEA said that Mato Grosso soybean plantings are 19.6% done versus 14.3% a week ago, 20.1% a year ago and less than half the 40.4% average pace. Ag Rural estimated Brazilian soybean plantings at 20% complete nationally versus the 5-year average of 30%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first 3 weeks of October averaged 125.3 TMT a day, down from 176.4 TMT/day in September but ahead of 32.2 TMT/day a year ago. The early season pace of US exports remains very robust. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 2.672 MMT, which was 13% larger than last week's already impressive total. Season to date shipments are now nearly 16% ahead of last years record pace. The USDA also announced 120,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. There's less rapeseed about this year. Oil World forecast global rapeseed exports at 3.19 MMT in Q4 of this year, a 14.5% decline on a year previously. COPA said for the week ending Oct 21 Canada crushed 159,925 MT of canola, down 5.2% from the week before. New daily limit movements in the grains/oilseeds sector are set to be introduced in Chicago from next Monday. On beans the new limit will be 60 cents/bushel versus 70 cents currently. Meal will drop to $20 from $25 and oil will stay unchanged at 200 points. After the close tonight the USDA said that the 2015 US soybean harvest was 87% complete, up 10 points from a week ago and versus 68% a year ago and 80% for the 5-year average. That's in line with expectations of 86-90% done. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.85, down 10 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.84 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $302.20, down $2.90; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.78, down 79 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher on spillover strength from wheat. The move came despite disappointing weekly export sales of 413,304 MT coming in 16.5% lower than the previous week. Season to date exports of 4.765 MMT are 26% smaller than they were this time a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported corn plantings there at 31.7% complete versus 32.8% a year ago. Brazil's corn exports are now outstripping those of beans. The South American powerhouse shipped out an average of 266.2 TMT/day of corn in the first three weeks of October - more than double the daily volume of beans exported. That was up almost 62% from 164.5 TMT/day in September and nearly 200% more than 138.2 TMT/day in October 2014. Ukraine exported more corn than wheat last week, for the second week in a row as they appear to be now switching their efforts to the former. They shipped out 425 TMT of corn, including plenty to lots of EU destinations such as the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and Belgium, as well as non-EU homes such as Egypt. By comparison Ukraine's wheat exports were 314 TMT and those of barley were 183 TMT. Russia said that its 2015 corn harvest was now 69.8% complete at 9.7 MMT. That's up on 8.9 MMT this time a year ago. Russian yields are averaging 5.08 MT/ha versus 4.55 MT/ha in 2014. The USDA reported the 2015 US corn harvest to be 75% complete, up 16 points from a week ago and versus only 44% a year ago and seven points ahead of 68% for the 5-year average. That's in line with expectations of 74-77% done. CEC are due to estimate South Africa’s corn area tomorrow. Based on a Reuters survey South Africa’s 2016 corn area is pegged at 2.63 million ha, little changed versus the 2015 area of 2.65 million. New daily trading limits for Chicago corn apply as from Monday. These will now be lowered to a maximum of 25 cents per bushel versus 30 cents currently. A possible Argentine election win for Mr Macri would potentially be even more bearish for corn than soybeans. Argentine corn exports are heavily restricted by taxes and quotas, and a lowering of these would lead to more corn coming onto the international market. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.84 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.93 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished the day posting strong gains across the three exchanges. Weekend rains from the remnants of Hurricane Patricia in US winter wheat areas of TX, KS and OK were far less widespread and impressive than the totals advertised, prompting some short-covering. Data on Friday showed that managed money added 35,740 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat for the week through to Tuesday night, said to be the largest one-week sell-off ever. Maybe a few got cold feet today it would seem. In their first weekly crop condition ratings of the year tonight, the USDA put winter wheat rated good to excellent at only 47%, down from 59% a year ago and below trade expectations of around 50% G/E. Top producing state of Kansas is only 41% good to excellent. The USDA had winter wheat emergence at 62%, exactly in line with the 5-year average. Plantings are 83% which is 2 points behind the recent norm. The USDA reported a less than impressive 317,079 MT worth of weekly export inspections today, which it seems the trade largely chose to ignore. Season to date inspections are only 82.5% of what they were this time a year ago. Russia said that their 2015 wheat harvest was 99.6% done at 63.8 MMT in bunker weight. Their wheat exports for the season so far (to Oct 21) are down 18.2% at 9.514 MMT. Russian 12.5% milling wheat prices are now said to be up to around $200/tonne FOB, but still some $10/tonne below US wheat. Dryness remains an issue for newly planted winter wheat in Russia and Ukraine. Russia's winter grain crop (the vast majority of which is wheat) is said to be around 91% planted. The Russian Grain Union say that about 30% of this is at risk due to poor emergence/germination. Ukraine's winter wheat crop is about 85% planted and faces similar problems. The 15-day forecast for both areas is now drier and colder than it was last week. Iran said that they plan to take the unusual step of exporting 400 TMT of surplus wheat stocks onto the international market. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that Argentine winter wheat planting for the 2016 harvest has barely begun. Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT of hard wheat. The results of an Ethiopian tender for 1 MMT of wheat are still awaited. the new daily limit on CBOT wheat is 35 cents/bu versus 40 cents currently. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.09, up 18 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.92 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.20 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents.
EU Wheat Ends Higher As US Rains Disappoint And FSU Forecast Turns Drier/Colder
26/10/15 -- EU wheat traded higher to start the week, corn was mixed and rapeseed ended lower. US wheat was firmer overnight following less widespread rains from the remnants of Hurricane Patricia over the weekend than the market had been anticipating, which added some support to EU markets.
At the close, Nov 15 London wheat was up GBP1.75/tonne at GBP115.25/tonne. In Paris, Dec 15 wheat was EUR2.00/tonne firmer at EUR181.00/tonne, Nov 15 corn was EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR166.00/tonne and Nov 15 rapeseed slumped EUR5.50/tonne lower to EUR374.75/tonne.
The euro was off Friday's lows, but the outlook for the single currency still remains firmly lower, which should add support to Paris wheat in the long run.
Another friendly factor for wheat today was a change in the weather outlook for Russia and Ukraine, with drier and colder than normal temperatures back in the 15-day forecast for both.
In one of the main winter wheat areas in southern Russia, Stavropol, the local Ag Ministry said that winter grain plantings are complete at 1.914 million ha, of which almost 97% is wheat.
On a national level the Russian Ag Ministry say that winter plantings for the 2016 harvest are 91% complete on 15.6 million ha versus 16.2 million this time a year ago.
The Russian 2015 harvest meanwhile is 97.6% complete at 104.9 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 63.8 MMT of wheat, 18.2 MMT of barley (both off 99.6% of the planted area) and 9.7 MMT of corn (off 69.8% of plan).
Russia's wheat exports Jul 1 to Oct 21 were 9.514 MMT, down 18.2% versus 11.624 MMT a year previously. Total grain exports of 12.319 MMT are 12.2% lower at 12.319 MMT. The Ministry forecast final 2015/16 grain exports at 30 MMT.
Ukraine said that they'd harvested 52.2 MMT of grains so far this season to Oct 23. They exported more corn than wheat last week - for the second week running - as they now seem to be switching their focus to the former grain. Corn exports last week were 425 TMT, including lots of EU destinations such as the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and Belgium, as well as non-EU homes such as Egypt.
Ukraine's wheat exports last week were 314 TMT, and they also shipped out 183 TMT of barley.
Oil World forecast global rapeseed exports in Q4 of this year at 3.19 MMT, down 14.5% on a year ago, as supplies tighten. Canada will lead the world export table with 2.2 MMT (versus 2.3 MMT a year ago), followed by Australia (0.43 MMT versus 0.55 MMT) and the CIS (0.42 MMT versus 0.74 MMT).
Iran, the second largest wheat importer in the Middle East, said that they intend to take the unusual step of selling 400,000 MT of surplus stocks onto the international market. They bought 8.08 MMT of wheat on the domestic market this year, up 1.4 MMT on a year ago, swelling government stocks to 8.3 MMT versus the previous 3-year average of only 3.1 MMT.
The USDA expected to probably release the first US winter wheat crop ratings of the new season later tonight. Crop conditions were placed at 59% good to excellent in the first ratings report of the season. a year ago.
