Nogger's Blog

Chicago Closing Comments - Friday

15/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower for a fifth session in a row, helped on their way by a Feb NOPA crush of only 136.322 million bushels versus trade expectations of around 141.6 million and well below the Jan crush of 158.195 million. Concern about Chinese feed demand continues amidst falling pork prices. Trade talk suggests that they have been cancelling Brazilian purchases this week. At least some of that may be getting switched to the US. Rumour suggests that China bought at least one cargo of US beans yesterday out of the PNW for March/April shipment. Other reports suggest that getting vessels out of North America isn't easy at the moment however, which may limit further soybean sales. With existing commitments currently running at 97% of the USDA target for the season then maybe that isn't such a bad thing. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the 2012/13 Argentine soybean crop at 48.5 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Very early harvesting is now underway, they added, although the main harvest effort only begins in a couple weeks. Argentina's Ag Ministry estimated the 2012/13 bean crop at 51-52 MMT. Allendale estimated the 2013 US soybean area at a record 78.324 million acres versus the USDA's Outlook Forum's projection of 77.5 MMT. They estimated the 2013/14 US crop at 3.349 billion bushels, up 11% versus 3.015 billion in 2012/13 and versus the 3.405 billion suggested by the USDA's Outlook Forum last month. For the week beans lost around 45 cents and meal over sixteen dollars. On the day May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.26, down 9 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.10 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD418.80, down USD6.20; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.91, up 57 points. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 5,000 soybean contracts on the day.

Corn: The corn market continues to move in the opposite direction to soybeans. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said as of March 14th 12.4% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested, up from 4% a week ago. They estimated Argentina’s 2012/13 corn crop at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They said that early yields in La Pampa, south Cordoba, Buenos Aires, and Entre Rios are around 125bu/acre. Argentina's Ag Ministry estimated the 2012/13 corn crop at 27.0 MMT versus the 2011/12 crop of 21.0 MMT. Brazil’s second corn crop (safrinha corn) is said to be off to a fantastic start with some local analysts suggesting Mato Grosso conditions look "exceptional" so far. The USDA currently has Brazilian corn production at 72.50 MMT, just under last year's record 73 MMT. There are said to be up to 4.6 MMT of soybeans and corn waiting to be loaded at the Brazilian port of Paranagua. Allendale estimated the 2013 US corn area at 96.956 million acres versus the USDA's Outlook Forum projection of 96.5 million. They estimated 2013/14 US corn yields at 156.97 bu/acre versus the USDA's hoped for "trendline" of 163.6 bu/acre, although a decent recovery on 123.4 bu/acre in 2012. That would produce a US corn crop of 13.912 billion bushels this year, up 29% on 10.780 billion in 2012, although significantly lower than the USDA's Forum prediction of 14.53 billion. Coceral estimated the 2013/14 EU-28 corn crop at 64.4 MMT, up 14% versus 56.3 MMT in 2012. UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 1.4 MMT of corn in February versus 1.6 MMT in January. For the week May 13 corn was up 14 cents. On the day May 13 Corn closed at USD7.17, up 1/2 cent; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD7.00 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents. Fund buying was estimated at around 3,000 contracts on the day.

Wheat: This week's gains in wheat are tied to widespread talk of significant increases in US domestic feed usage as corn availability gets tighter. The quarterly stocks report due at the end of the month may provide some answers as to exactly how much wheat feeding has been going on. Yesterday's export sales were also supportive, backing up the notion that US wheat is now the cheapest in the world. The sizable short that the funds have built up in CBOT wheat may also be limiting downside. Allendale estimated the 2013 US wheat area at 56.261 million acres versus the USDA's Forum projection of 56.0 million. They estimate this year's US all wheat crop at 2.204 billion bushels, down slightly versus 2.269 billion in 2012/13, but an improvement on the USDA's Forum projection of 2.1 billion presumably due to improved weather conditions on the Plains recently. Coceral estimated the 2013/14 EU-28 soft wheat crop at 127.8 MMT versus 124.6 MMT a year ago. Japan's Farm Minister estimated 2013/14 feed wheat imports at a record 1.07 MMT as wheat continues to nudge corn inclusion levels in feed rations lower. Russia's Ag Ministry said that Russia intends to buy wheat locally to replenish intervention stocks in the August/October time frame. The wheat market gave up a little of the week's gains today but May 13 CBOT wheat still closed the week 26 cents higher than it began it, with Kansas up 18 cents and Minneapolis up 4 cents. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 2,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day which saw May 13 CBOT Wheat close at USD7.23, down 1 3/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.51 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.96 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents.

EU Wheat Mixed, Opinions Divided Over 2013 Production Prospects

15/03/13 -- EU wheat futures closed mixed. As an assortment of early crop production forecasts for 2013 seep through, it's apparent that opinions vary quite widely on output potential in 2013, and none more so than at home.

On the day London wheat closed with front month Mar 13 unchanged at down GBP0.60/tonne to GBP194.65/tonne and with new crop Nov 13 down GBP0.35/tonne to GBP183.15/tonne. May 13 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR234.75/tonne. For the week Mar 13 London wheat fell GBP1.60/tonne, with Nov 13 up GBP0.40/tonne and May 13 Paris wheat adding EUR4.50/tonne.

Late Thursday Brussels said that it had issued a further 476 TMT of soft wheat export licenses this past week, bringing the 2012/13 marketing year to date total to 14.16 MMT. Add on a further 817 TMT of durum wheat export licenses and we've got an all wheat export total so far of 15 MMT.

With 15 weeks of the 2012/13 season remaining exports only now need to average 300 TMT/week from here on in to hit the USDA's projection of 19.5 MMT for the year. If exports were to continue at 476 TMT/week for the remainder of the season then full 2012/13 shipments would top 22 MMT.

All wheat imports meanwhile currently stand at 4 MMT, with corn imports at 8.2 MMT.

Latest customs data from the UK meanwhile shows that we imported 270 TMT of wheat in January, nearly four times the volume imported 12 months previously. We also imported more that 173 TMT of corn in the first month of 2013, almost double the volume shipped in Jan 2012.

Total UK wheat imports for 2012/13 so far are 1.61 MMT, three times the level of exports.

The NFU report that the UK wheat area "appears around 12% down" - noting that some further wheat area has been planted since their data was collected in December, but also that some crops have since been written off. Some news wires are reporting that they are forecasting a UK wheat crop of 13.5 MMT this year, which sounds unusually bullish of them. What their website actually says is that "13.5 million tonnes is looking optimistic and would rely on very good growing conditions from now."

Even so, anything like 13.5 MMT is well ahead of other analyst's projections. Strategie Grains cut their 2013 UK wheat production forecast to 12 MMT this week, and today Coceral concurred with that view.

Coceral also pegged EU-28 soft wheat production at 127.8 MMT, up 2.6% on output of 124.6 MMT a year ago, but well below Strategie Grains estimate of 131.6 MMT.

Coceral appear less bullish than some about soft wheat production prospects in France, estimating output there at 35.9 MMT, barely changed on 35.77 MMT last year thanks to lower projected yields.

They also estimated this year's EU-28 barley crop at 54.8 MMT, versus 54.5 MMT a year ago and 55.5 MMT from Strategie Grains. For corn production this year they go for 64.4 MMT, versus 56.3 MMT a year ago and 66.0 MMT from Strategie Grains. For rapeseed output they estimate 20.05 MMT versus 19.5 MMT a year ago. Separately, Copa-Cogeca tentatively forecast the EU rapeseed crop climbing to 21.0 MMT this year, with the caveat that "the figures have to be treated with caution, due to the variable weather conditions."

The Russia Ag Ministry estimated the 2013 grain crop at 95.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and up more than a third on production last year. In the south of the country the leading winter wheat districts of Krasnodar and Stavropol are reported to have had good rains in the past 7-14 days.

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 84-89 MMT, up from their previous estimate of 80-87 MMT, although not as bullish as the Ministry. They estimated winterkill crop losses slightly below average at 9%.

EU Rapemeal Prices

15/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat today. Nearby March is unquoted, apart from that only the May/Jul14 position shows any change.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session:

The Morning Vibe

15/03/13 -- The overnight grains are mixed with wheat around 6-7 cents lower, corn down a couple of cents and soybeans consolidating from a four day losing streak at around 4 cents firmer. Chinese soybean futures are also up overnight on bargain-hunting.

Syria is said to have bought French wheat in a deal fronted by Lebanon. A 32,000 MT cargo of French wheat, said to be the first shipment since May 2011 to be destined for Syria, is due to load out of the west coast in the next few days. You can get more on this story here.

Brussels granted a healthy 476 TMT of soft wheat export licenses this past week, bringing the cumulative year-to-date total to 14.2 MMT.

There is talk Brazil's port workers strike lined up for Mar 19th will not go ahead due to ongoing talks with government.

The pound is up to the dizzy heights of 1.5140 against the dollar and over 1.16 versus the euro this morning after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King denied policy makers are deliberately looking to push sterling down.

The minutes of the BoE's MPC March meeting are out next Wednesday.

"Drought conditions in the contiguous U.S. (are) now rated at 51.38%, down from 53.34% last week. Drought still covers approximately 91% of the central and northern Plains, but declined slightly to 54.5% of the southern Plains and Delta and 35.5% of the Midwest," say MDA CropCast.

It's still a game of two halves in Russia: "Showers the past several days in southern Russia have produced 15 mm of rainfall, on average, but heavier in Rostov and Volgograd the northern two winter wheat districts. Warming temperatures in the 50s F have further promoted growth. Wheat is beginning to green up much earlier than usual, due to pronounced winter warmth. A very strong weather disturbance last week caused widespread generous precipitation in Russia's Black Earth and Volga winter wheat growing areas, the northern portion of the grain belt. Unfavourable dry field conditions have persisted in Krasnodar and especially Stavropol in the south though," say Martell Crop Projections.

They also report on unusually cold weather in northern China: "Temperatures this winter have been persistently cold in Northeast China affecting top corn provinces Heilongjiang, Jilin and Nei Monggol. Presently, the snow cover averages around 5 inches deep. That has not changed at all for the past several weeks, due to persistent bitter cold weather. Harbin the capital city of Heilongjiang has experienced a bitter cold winter, minimum temperatures below zero F on 39 of the past 45 nights. The winter climate in Northeast China is very dry and cold, but the bitter cold this year is remarkable."

In Argentina late planted crops are now faced with cooler than normal temperatures: "Drought is rapidly resolving but the final outcome in corn and soybeans is still uncertain. Planting got strung out over a 3-month period due to record wetness in the spring, occurring in fits and starts. March normally marks the beginning of the corn harvest, but most of the crop this year may not be gathered until May and June. The new worry is cold temperatures. Strong cooling has occurred in March, slowing down development. Late planted crops need heat units. Temperatures last week were 3-5 F below normal. The new forecast remains very cool," they say.

Chicago Soy Down, Corn And Wheat Up

14/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans were sharply lower for a fourth session in a row on continued fund liquidation, with expiring Mar 13 posting the heaviest losses. Weekly soybean export sales were strong at a combined 783,724 MT, and were heavily skewed towards old crop (657,700 MT), taking total commitments now to 97% of the USDA's target for the 2012/13 season. For old crop "unknown" bought 220,200 MT, China bought 183,500 MT and also took 126,000 MT of the new crop. For all the talk of possible Chinese cancellations there were none, nor any from anyone else. The NOPA February Crush report comes out tomorrow with the trade expecting a crush of around 141.6 million bushels versus the Jan crush of 158.195 million and the Feb 2012 crush of 136.35 million. MDA CropCast cut their Argentine soybean production estimate by 730 TMT to 49.34 MMT citing dryness earlier in the season. Brazilian output was left unchanged at 81.43 MMT. For 2013/14 they placed US soybean production at 87.56 MMT, up 3.38 MMT from last week and 15% up on last year. In Brazil they go for 80.67 MMT and in Argentina 54.08 MMT. Funds were estimated as net sellers of 4-5,000 soybean contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.57 1/4, down 17 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.35 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD422.80, down USD4.20; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.09, down 27 points.

Corn: Whilst soybeans have been down every day this week, corn has been attempting to do the opposite (although technical and expiring Mar 13 closed lower today). Export sales of a combined 653,318 MT beat expectations of 200-500 TMT. China took 111 TMT of old crop and 191 TMT of new crop. Even so, total commitments are only 71% of the USDA projection for 2012/13 versus the 5-year average of 77%. China bought a trial 13,700 MT of Indian corn for April shipment. It will be interesting to see if it passes stringent Chinese quality standards. Indian corn is currently said to be priced at around 7% under US corn into China, and also has the advantage of being GM free. Vietnam bought 30 TMT Indian corn for Apr/May shipment. Census data shows that the US imported 680,318 MT of Argentine and Brazilian corn between September 2012 and January 2013. MDA CropCast left both their Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates unchanged at 74.1 MMT and 23.1 MMT respectively. In Argentina "rains are expected to remain very limited in the region through next week, and harvesting should progress very well," they said. The outlook is wetter in Brazil, slowing harvesting attempts although "the rains in the north will favour safrinha growth," they added. Fund buying was estimated at around 4-6,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.32 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents. New front month May 13 Corn closed at USD7.16 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Weekly export sales came in well above trade expectations at a combined 1,087,000 MT. That included a hefty 888,500 MT of old crop sales, of which 103,400 MT was to Egypt. New crop sales of 198,500 MT included 82,500 MT to "unknown" and 57,000 MT to China. In addition, weekly shipments of 787,100 MT were a marketing year high. Old crop sales now only need to be 353,300 MT/week to hit the USDA estimate, although that assumes that everything that is sold gets shipped in 2012/13. Strength in corn added support to wheat, so too probably did the existing fund short position in CBOT wheat. IKAR estimate the Russian grain crop at 90-92 MMT this year, with wheat accounting for 50 MMT of that. Japan bought 130,533 MT of milling wheat for April/June shipment of which around half was US origin. Indonesia bought 25 TMT of Australian wheat for April shipment. Malaysia deferred a 350 TMT wheat purchase for July/Sept shipment saying that they expect prices to fall. India are tendering to sell 100 TMT of wheat for Apr/May shipment but might not like the price. Strategie Grains cut their EU-28 wheat production estimate by 600 TMT but that still leaves output 5% higher than in 2012/13. Fund buying in CBOT wheat was estimated at 3-4,000 lots. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.14 1/4, up 7 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.42 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.00 1/2, unchanged.

EU Wheat Rebounds From Lows

14/03/13 -- EU wheat futures closed higher, rebounding from the recent multi-month lows on signs of a pick up in world demand after the USDA reported strong weekly export sales for wheat, and the largest weekly shipments of the current marketing year.

On the day, London wheat closed with Mar 13 up GBP1.75/tonne to GBP195.25/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP0.50/tonne higher at GBP183.50/tonne. May 13 Paris wheat was EUR1.50/tonne firmer at EUR234.50/tonne.

Private US exporters reported sales of 888,500 MT of old crop wheat for the week through to Mar 7, along with a further 198,500 MT of new crop. Sales needed each week to hit the USDA old crop export estimate are now only 353,300 MT/week. On top of that, weekly shipments of 787,100 MT were a marketing year high. This suggests that maybe the USDA were a little hasty in lowering their 2012/13 US wheat export forecast last week.

Everybody is talking about US wheat being gobbled up in place of expensive, and scarce, corn. Whether it's to domestic US feeders, ethanol manufacturers, Japanese buyers, there is also now talk that Mexico may have cancelled US corn purchases and replaced them with Chicago wheat.

If you want old crop wheat, and aren't on India's doorstep or don't want to risk their quality issues, then US wheat remains the cheapest option. Why else would Iran be sniffing for US wheat?

Of course this window of opportunity won't last forever, Black Sea sellers will be mighty keen to undercut both India and the US at the first available opportunity for new crop. There's talk that the Russian government will step in to replenish their depleted intervention stocks come harvest time, should prices there fall sufficiently low, which may restrict their usual early season aggression. Even so, Russian sellers have reportedly been conducting new crop business at heavily discounted levels into the Middle East lately.

Strategie Grains cut their EU-28 soft wheat production forecast for the coming season by 600 TMT to 131.6 MMT, that amounts to a 3.4 MMT reduction since their first forecast for 2013/14 was released in December, although it still represents a 5% increase on output last year. Accounting for half of that downgrade was the UK, who's production potential was cut to 12 MMT, although there will be plenty of growers out there who think that this estimate is still way too high.

The remainder of the reduction this month was largely down to cuts in plantings in France, Poland and Italy. The former two will see an increase in corn acreage from that forecast last month, which led the French analysts to raise their corn production forecast by 0.5 MMT to 66 MMT, an increase of 16% on last year. Barley output was left unchanged at 55,5 MMT, a modest 1% rise on 2012/13.

They said that winter crops are "generally in good condition" although they noted the lack of snow cover may leave some vulnerable to the current cold snap that is being experienced across much of the continent.

Rouen's weekly grain export total rose 86% on last week to 170 TMT, including 109 TMT of soft wheat and 61 TMT of barley, said Bloomberg.

FranceAgriMer yesterday raised their 2012/13 French soft wheat ending stocks estimate from 2.42 MMT to 2.60 MMT, a 14% rise on last season. A reduction in exports within the EU was largely to blame, these are seen down 10.6% year-on-year to 6.725 MMT. Corn stocks were forecast up 14.1% versus 2011/12 at 2.78 MMT and their barley carryout is seen 75.6% higher than year ago levels at 1.69 MMT.

IKAR estimate the Russian wheat crop at 50 MMT this year, say Bloomberg. That's up by almost a third on the USDA's 2012/13 crop figure of 37.7 MMT.

EU Rapemeal Prices

14/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little weaker, in line with overnight losses in Chicago soymeal and the general lack of demand. Even nearby March is now showing signs of capitulation.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Morning Snippets

14/03/13 -- The overnight grains are mostly a little lower, although nearby corn remains steady which is supporting wheat. March contracts go off the board tonight. London and Paris wheat are showing modest gains.

MDA CropCast have cut their Argy soybean production estimate by 730 TMT from last week to 49.34 MMT, mainly due to earlier dryness. Output in Brazil is forecast unchanged from last week at 81.43 MMT.

They're also out with early forecasts for world crop production in 2013/14, pegging the US soybean crop at 87.56 MMT, up 3.38 MMT from last week and 15% up on last year. In Brazil they go 80.67 MMT and in Argentina 54.08 MMT.

Elsewhere they have the EU rapeseed crop in 2013/14 at 17.84 MMT. Their EU-27 barley production estimate is 53.6 MMT, up 1.1 MMT from last week due to "favourable winter conditions."

IKAR estimate the Russian wheat crop at 50 MMT this year, say Bloomberg. That's up by almost a third on the USDA's 2012/13 crop figure of 37.7 MMT.

Japan have bought 130,533 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their regular weekly tender.

Malaysia are said to be deferring a tender to purchase 350 TMT of wheat for Jul/Sep shipment in anticipation of lower prices. They're probably right, although I always feel a bit uncomfortable when EVERYONE feels bearish. Australian standard white wheat prices are said to have fallen USD20-25/tonne in the past month.

India are said to have sold a trial shipment of 13,700 MT of corn to China at USD275/tonne FOB for April shipment. I imagine that they will attempt to make sure that it's squeaky clean to pass Chinese customs standards. One thing it has got going for it is that it's GM free.

Soybeans on the Chinese Dalian Exchange have closed lower for a fourth successive session on talk that Chinese pig prices are below the cost of production and demand for meal therefore might drop.

Maybe that's why they've started dumping pigs into rivers there? See This little piggie didn't go to market.

FranceAgriMer have raised their estimate for 2012/13 wheat ending stocks from 2.4 MMT to 2.6 MMT. The shift is "due to the drop in non-EU exports" say Agritel.

"The disappointing weather conditions in France are penalising loading on the Atlantic coast. As for crop development, the recent cold spell doesn’t seem to have caused much trouble. The crop emergence should be delayed though," they add.

Chicago Closing Comments - Wednesday

13/03/13 -- Soycomplex: The market was sharply lower for a second session in a row in what seems to be long liquidation ahead of the upcoming quarterly stocks and planting intentions report due at the end of the month. The strong dollar didn't help, neither did suggestions that Chinese cancellations could be on the way. "Talk that Brazil could eliminate a tax credit for domestic soyoil and in effect capping prices and hurting crush margins by up to $20," was also negative said Benson Quinn Commodities. The upcoming record Brazilian soybean harvest is now past the halfway point. Some reports suggest that even allowing for the current shipping delays, Brazilian beans are still a cheaper option than importing from the US. Tomorrow's weekly soybean export sales report will be of interest. Last week we got sales of 392,000 MT of old crop and 990,600 MT of new crop, which beat trade expectations. Estimates for tomorrow are around 700 TMT-1.1 MMT. Old crop commitments are already at 95% of the USDA target for the season. The USDA attaché in Beijing says China will import a record 65.5 MMT of soybeans in 2013/14, up 4% on this year as their domestic production falls 4% to 12 MMT - the lowest since 1992/93. The Brazil Port Union still plans on a strike on March 19th. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 8,000 soybean contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.75, down 14 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.47, down 21 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD427.00, down USD9.40; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.36, down 47 points.

Corn: Front month Mar 13 just about managed a fifth successive higher close, but only just. Further forward months were dragged lower by tumbling soybean values. The weekly ethanol production rate was down 8,000 barrels/day to 797,000 bpd, below the level required to hit the USDA's target of 4.5 billion bushels worth of demand from the ethanol sector this season. Corn used in last week's production was estimated at 83.7 million bushels versus the 87.8 million needed per week to reach the USDA estimate. Ukraine said that they have exported 10 MMT of corn so far this marketing year, a rise of 22% on year ago levels. India is reported to have been making new crop corn sales into Asian buyers. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates unchanged from week ago at 72 MMT and 24 MMT respectively. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 200-500 TMT. Last week's expectations were similar, although in the end all we got was net cancellations of 49,800 MT of old crop and sales of only 206,400 MT for new crop. Fund selling was estimated at around 5,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.41 1/4, up 1/4 cent; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.10 1/4, down 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on short-covering and unwinding of long beans/short wheat spreads. CBH Group say that Australia's wheat crop will rise 11.6% to 24.0 MMT in 2013/14. Ending stocks this season will finish at a 4-year low of 4.0 MMT (and well below the USDA's forecast of 5.7 MMT), they added. They only forecast Australian wheat exports at 16.0 MMT this season and 18.0 MMT next, seeing increased competition from the Black Sea and India into traditional Asian homes. India say that they'd like to get onto Egypt's list of approved wheat suppliers. Maybe the cash-strapped Egyptians will not be quite so fussy as they have been in the past couple of years? Egypt say that they have sufficient wheat stocks and purchases to last them until Jun 9th. Traditionally they carry around 6 months worth of supplies. Despite international sanctions against them (which of course don't apply to food commodities), Iran are said to be actively seeking 100-110 TMT of US HRW wheat for April shipment. India are tendering to sell 100 TMT of wheat for Apr/May shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 500-800 TMT versus last week's combined crop year total of 828,100 MT. Fund buying in CBOT wheat was pegged at 1-2,000 lots on the day. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.07 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.29 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.00 1/2, down 1/4 cent.

Old Crop London Wheat Hits New Multi-Month Lows

13/03/13 -– The 13th of the month was certainly unlucky for old crop London  wheat longs, with the market slumping to new lows for the recent move. London wheat closed with Mar 13 down GBP1.80/tonne at GBP193.50/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP1.00/tonne lower at GBP183.00/tonne. May 13 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR233.00/tonne.

The market looks nervous heading towards the USDA's quarterly grain stocks and their early planting intentions reports due on Mar 28th.

Despite question marks over crops in France and the UK it's not all doom and gloom everywhere. Bloomberg report that the EU wheat acreage for the 2013 harvest will be "up near the 2008 highs" quoting Rabobank.

Germany's DRV forecast a 2013 winter wheat crop there of 23.3 MMT, up almost 9% on last season. Winter barley production will be 12% higher at 7.9 MMT, they said. Winter rapeseed output will also increase by around 12% to 5.4 MMT, they add.

They have the winter wheat area up 7% on last year, with winter barley and winter OSR plantings up 11% and 10% respectively, accounting for most of the rise in production. Spring wheat plantings will decline almost 77%, and the spring barley area by 34%, producing output of 224 TMT and 2 MMT respectively.

Winterkill is insignificant, even with the recent sub-zero temperatures, the only effect that they will have is that they may delay spring plantings by one to one and a half weeks, they suggest.

Ukraine are also bullish on their production prospects this year, with some estimates for grain output as high as 55 MMT versus 46.2 MMT in 2012.

A report on Dow Jones Newswires today suggest that Turkish millers have been buying new crop Russian wheat at USD268/tonne C&F, which equates to only around GBP180/tonne despite the relatively small cargo sizes involved (said to be circa 5,000 MT shipments).

India is tendering to sell 100 TMT of wheat for Apr/May shipment, having turned down bids around the USD295-300/tonne FOB mark last week. They were still said to have been sitting on over 27 MMT of stocks from last year's harvest as of Mar 1st, with another 90-95 MMT crop on the way imminently. They are said to be attempting to get onto Egypt's list of approved suppliers.

Russia sold 61,267 MT of intervention grain yesterday, and a further 62,217 MT again today, bringing the total sold so far since sales began in October to 2.314 MMT.

Winter crop conditions in the south of the country are mixed. "Russia's southern grain belt has become unfavourably dry after more than a month without rain. Low precipitation has been a recurring issue in winter wheat, as only one month out of the past five has been wet," say Martell Crop Projections.

"A new forecast holds out hope for some rainfall in southern Russia, though rains would be less-widespread than originally indicated. The forecast is still rainy and wet in Krasnodar and Stavropol, but the two northern winter wheat districts of Rostov and Volgograd are now drier. A strong cold front triggered heavy snowfall in the Volga Valley last weekend, but precipitation petered out in southern Russia," they add.

Stavropol winter grain crop conditions (vs last year) are: Good 37.7% (35.7%); fair 47.8% (53.4%); Poor 14.6% (9.9%).

Early spring planting is underway in parts of the Southern and North Caucasian districts, with 175.4 thousand ha in the ground, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Spring grains and oilseeds will be planted on 30.3 million ha, they forecast.

EU Rapemeal Prices

13/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly lower today. Nearby March 13 is doing it's best to buck the trend, but demand is as limited as supply. Further forward positions are showing signs of starting to crack. Growers in Ukraine are becoming increasingly bullish on new crop production prospects.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session:

Morning News

13/03/13 -- The overnight grains are mixed with wheat and corn generally around 2-3 cents firmer and soybeans 2-3 cents weaker. The market has an uneasy look heading towards the USDA's quarterly grain stocks report and their early planting intentions numbers both due at the end of the month.

Dow Jones Newswires are reporting Turkish millers buying new crop Russian wheat at USD268 C&F, which equates to around GBP180/tonne - and remember this is for milling wheat and including freight. That makes Nov 13 feed wheat at GBP183.50/tonne look a sell, for all the woes of the domestic crop at the moment.

Russia have sold a further 61,267 MT of grain in it's now regular twice weekly sale of intervention stocks, bringing the total sold to date to 2.25 MMT.

Early spring planting is underway in parts of the Southern and North Caucasian districts, with 175.4 thousand ha in the ground, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Spring grains and oilseeds will be planted on 30.3 million ha, they forecast.

Kazakhstan's national statistics agency say that Mar 1st grain stocks there stood 36% down on year ago levels at 11.4 MMT.

CBH Group say that Australia's wheat crop will rise 11.6% to 24.0 MMT in 2013/14. Ending stocks this season will finish at a 4-year low of 4.0 MMT (well below the USDA's forecast of 5.7 MMT) and versus 7 MMT in 2011/12, they say.

Chinese Industry analysts said China’s soybean crush volume in the October 1st 2012 – March 1st 2013 period was 25.61 MMT, down 604,438 MT from a year ago.

They estimate China’s February soybean imports at 3.67 MMT, well above the official Chinese customs figure of 2.9 MMT. March bean imports are estimated at 3.94 MMT, April's at 4.0 MMT, May's at 6.0 MMT and June's at 6.7 MMT. February is traditionally the quietest month of the year for soybean imports.

The USDA attaché in Beijing says China will import 65.5 MMT of soybeans in 2013/14, up 4% on this year as their domestic production falls 4% to 12 MMT.

UkrAgroConsult estimate Ukraine’s 2013 sunseed crop at 9.51 MMT, up 11% from a year ago. They also estimate Ukraine’s 2013 ever growing soybean crop at 2.71 MMT, up 17% from a year ago.

China recently only sold 5,000 MT of the 100,000 MT of state-owned rapeseed oil in a government auction, they will offer again this week.

"Following favourable rainfall in the first 7 days of March, it has become very dry again in several parts of Argentina, stressing later planted soybeans," say Oil World.

There are some interesting charts here from Saxobank showing various spreads between soybeans, corn and wheat. Note particularly the steady widening of the differential between Paris and CBOT wheat which has been taking place since last July, and also recent changes in the corn:wheat ratio.

There's already talk about US planting delays in the Deep South, given the projected extreme tightness in 2012/13 carryout for corn and beans. This was not reflected in data this week's data showing Louisiana corn planting at 20% complete versus only 6% on average.

Chicago Soybeans Crash On Profit-Taking, But Corn And Wheat Rise

12/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Front month beans crashed back below USD15/bu, a level which has become very difficult to hold above, in spectacular style on profit-taking and a lack of bullish news. It should be noted that Mar 13 goes off the board on Thursday. For all the talk of China switching interest away from Brazil to the US there's now talk of vessels being hard to come by in the PNW, presumably they are all sat waiting to load off the west coast of South America? Oil World estimated the 2013 US soybean planted area at 78-79 million acres, up 2.5-3.8% on 76.1 million a year ago. China’s soybean crush for the first week of March was said to be 1.121 MMT, down 14.25% from the previous week due to lower soybean imports in February. Rumours still circulate that China will release 1.1 MMT of beans from state-owned reserves by the end of the month. AgRural said 50% of Brazil's soybean crop has been harvested, including 75% of the crop in Mato Grosso. They estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 crop at above 80.0 MMT, a rise of at least 20% on last year. Fund selling in beans was estimated at 3-4,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.89 3/4, down 25 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.68 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD436.40, down USD1.70; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.83, down 41 points.

Corn: In contrast to beans, corn closed higher for a fourth session in a row. Nearby longs seem to want ownership of corn, or at least are prepared to say to the shorts "deliver against it then" which it looks like they may struggle to do. A report on Reuters suggests that private Chinese feed mills have bought 600 TMT of new crop US corn since February. Sinograin, the manager of China’s state reserves, are currently said to be rebuilding their domestic stocks. Reports still circulate of US ethanol manufacturers looking to substitute some corn in the grist with wheat and now sorghum. There are reports of Argentina sorghum being imported to the east coast of the US to facilitate this new demand. Corn planting is underway in southern US states, with Texas 29% complete, up sharply from 15% a week ago and ahead of the 5-year average of 22%. Louisiana is 20% complete versus 6% on average. Tomorrow brings the weekly ethanol production data, with most expecting an increase on last week's 805,000 barrels/day. Funds were estimated as being net buyers of around 5-6,000 corn contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.41, up 6 1/2 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.14 1/4, up 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market remains a follower of corn. With Chicago wheat currently running at around a 40 cent discount to corn there should be increased feed usage of wheat. There are reports of some US feed companies with Argentine corn on the books looking to switch to cheaper domestic SRW wheat. India’s March 1st wheat stocks were said to be 27.1 MMT - well above government target levels. However the price that the government have paid for these stocks means that if they sell at USD300/tonne or less then they will be making a loss. Harvesting there normally starts at the end of March. So, with India seemingly unwilling to accept bids around the USD295-300/tonne mark on various tenders to export wheat, US wheat is indeed the cheapest around. Last week's export sales were bumper at a combined 828,100 MT, the trade will be looking for that kind of form to be continued again this week. Japan are tendering for 130,533 MT of milling wheat for April/June shipment, including 65,000 MT of US origin. Bangladesh seeks 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for April shipment. Funds were said to have been net buyers in Chicago wheat of around 1,500 contracts on the day, but still remain heavily short. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.00 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.35, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.00 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents.

EU Wheat Mostly Lower, Pound Sinks (Again)

12/03/13 -- EU wheat futures closed mixed, but mostly lower, with London wheat supported by the pound having another bad day at the office, falling to a fresh 2 1/2 year low against the dollar of 1.4832 on weak UK manufacturing data for January.

On the day London wheat closed with front month Mar 13 unchanged at  GBP195.30/tonne and with new crop Nov 13 also flat at GBP184.00/tonne. May 13 Paris wheat was down EUR1.00/tonne at EUR232.50/tonne, the lowest close for a front month in 8 1/2 months.

Ukraine reported that they've already completed 410,000 ha of spring plantings, an unusually early start. Around this time last year only 32,000 ha of spring crops were in the ground, it was 113,000 ha in 2011 and zero in 2010 so they really are off to a flyer this year.

The Ukraine Ministry are so far only forecasting a grain crop of 50 MMT this year, up a modest 8.2% on last year. Other estimates are lining up around the 53-55 MMT mark, an increase in the region of 15-19%, although the national weather centre are predicting a crop 20-23% higher than last year. They would normally be aggressive early season sellers.

UkrAgroConsult are forecasting a winter rapeseed crop of 1.93 MMT this year, almost double last year's production of 1.07 MMT. Spring rapeseed plantings will be fairly minimal, giving an overall rapeseed crop of 2.0 MMT in 2013, up 62.5% on last year's output of 1.23 MMT, they say.

French soft wheat exports in January were 1.76 MMT, taking the marketing year to date to 9.48 MMT, a 5% drop on Jul/Jan in 2011/12. Of that total 5.71 MMT has been shipped to homes outside of the EU-27.

Russia exported only 63,000 MT of grain in the first week of March, of which only 19,000 MT was wheat. That brings the marketing year to date total grain exports to 13.9 MMT, a reduction of almost a third on last season. It is thought that, unlike Ukraine, the Russians may not be as aggressive as normal in the first quarter of next season as the government will be looking to rebuild intervention stocks run down to near zero by the end of 2012/13.

Reports suggest that the cash-strapped Egyptian government is looking to encourage increased domestic wheat production by building new silos for the 2014 harvest. They're seeking ways to be less reliant on wheat imports as the Egyptian pound declines, and want to buy more wheat locally.

Bangladesh have issued a new tender to import 50,000 MT of wheat, Japan are in for a 130,500 MT combo of US, Canadian,= and Australian milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, other than that fresh buying interest is scarce.

US winter wheat conditions continue to improve, albeit from a very low starting point. The latest word out of the top producing state of Kansas has good/excellent conditions up three points on last week to 27%, with second top producer Oklahoma up four points to 20% in the top two categories.

Ask Nogger

12/03/13 -- Today's problem comes Master B Weasel of East Anglia, he writes:

Q: Dear Uncle Nogger, I wonder if you could advise me with an argument I’ve had with my friends at school. My American friend Mike Hunt says he will sell me his crisps for lunch. I’ve heard that he’s nearly sold them all to my Chinese classmate – Won Hun Low and that he might not have any left by the time I come to get them. The Brazilian exchange student, Rio Birdyhand, says that he will sell me his crisps much cheaper than Mike, but he can’t open his lunchbox to get them out. But he says I can get some new packets of crisps from him in June, if I can wait? On top of this, Mike keeps telling me that my pocket money is becoming worth less every day and that if I leave it any longer I’ll only be able to afford half a packet. I’m terribly confused! What is a young boy with a penchant for bow ties and red trousers to do? Yours Sincerely, Master B Weasel.

A: Well young fellow, those Chinese boys certainly do love their crisps don't they? The problem with Brazilian crisps is, well, they come from Brazil to put it bluntly, and that's an awfully long way away when you're a growing boy isn't it? Your pal Mike probably thinks he's sitting pretty I'd say. You could try reminding Mike of the relatively insignificant role that his Grandad played in the war. Whist your Grandad was busy bombing Berlin despite nursing a chest full of shrapnel and a couple of broom handles for legs, his was probably strolling nonchalantly around Burtonwood dishing out silk stockings and chocolates in exchange for a go on your Grandma's zeppelins. If that fails try simply taking the crisps off him and running away. As he's American, I'm guessing that he's probably "of larger than average build" shall we say. As you're British, then I'm guessing that you are a weedy little scroat, so outrunning Mike shouldn't be of too much difficulty. If that also fails then try telling Mike that taking into account the inverse basis at the stem and that the technical momentum indicators are in strong alignment, when also considering the stochastics and 20, 30 and 40 day moving averages, and studying the Fibonacci fractals that there's a high level of probability that the crisps are in fact almost certainly yours anyway and him holding what's yours is starting to get your dander up. That'll soon scare him off.

EU Rapemeal Prices

12/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are weaker, mirroring overnight losses in Chicago soymeal and a general lack of demand. End user buying is light despite what is traditionally a very busy month demand-wise.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Chicago Posts Modest Rally As South American Shipping Delays Get Longer

11/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Shipping delays out of Brazil are now at least 40 days, and as much as 60 days depending on the port, according to some reports. There's also still a strike lined up for next week. Widespread rains in Brazil this past week are seen slowing down the harvest and causing problems getting corn and soybeans to the ports. New truck driver regulations concerning the maximum number of hours behind the wheel that they are permitted are also said to adding to the logistical nightmare. That should keep at least some demand going the way of the US, although today's export inspections of only 17.114 million bushels were less than half the 40.336 million of last week. Even so that's well above the 7.22 million bushels needed to meet the USDA export projection. Safras e Mercado said that the Brazilian soybean crop is 48% harvested versus 37% a week ago and 46% a year ago. Mato Grosso’s soybean harvest is 74% complete versus 76% a year ago and 57% normally at this time. There's talk of a frost threat for Argentina Thu–Fri. The USDA issued a correction to the sale of 345,000 MT of new crop soybeans reported last week. It was actually 225,000 MT of new crop soybeans and 120,000 MT of new crop corn. Fund buying in beans was estimated at around a net 3-4,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.14 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.79 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD438.10, up USD2.00; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.24, up 8 points.

Corn: Weekly export inspections of 14.437 million bushels were in line with trade estimates of 10-15 million, but not quite enough to meet the newly lowered USDA target for the season. Friday's surprise hike in US domestic feed usage of corn added support for old crop though. The correction of last week's misreported soybean sale by the USDA was also a little friendly for new crop. Safras e Mercado said that 37% of Brazil’s 1st corn crop has been harvested versus 35% a year ago. Planting of the 2nd corn crop is 78% complete versus 80% a year ago, they added. They estimated Brazil’s 2nd corn crop at 40.036 MMT versus 37.976 MMT a year ago. South Korea's MFG bought 68 TMT of optional origin corn for June shipment from Toepfer at a reported USD310.90 C&F. South America is thought to be the most likely origin for that, US stocks will be very tight by then. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said the Ukraine has exported 9.7 MMT of corn so far this marketing year. POET are said to now also be considering sorghum as a feedstock, in addition to wheat, due to high domestic corn prices. Funds were estimated to have bought around 8-9,000 corn contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.34 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.11 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.

Wheat: There are signs of a continued pick up in demand for US wheat. Last week's export sales of 618,100 MT of old crop and 210,000 MT of new crop comfortably beat trade forecasts for sales of a combined 300-600 TMT. Today we had weekly export inspections of 27.856 million bushels, an increase from 24.844 million last week, and above the 25.319 million needed to hit the USDA's target for the season. India cancelled two export tenders, with their price aspirations seemingly too high. Whilst conditions on the Plains have improved significantly it still needs to be remembered that any improvement in winter wheat conditions will start from the lowest base in history. Meanwhile, "moisture remains short across the Pacific Northwest white winter wheat belt, and little improvement is expected there over the next ten days," said MDA CropCast. The trade was a little surprised that the USDA didn't increase domestic wheat usage in feed in Friday's report but the Quarterly Stocks data, due to be released at the end of the month, may give to clearer picture on the amount of wheat being fed, say Benson Quinn Commodities. Fund buying in CBOT wheat was estimated at around 1-2,000 contracts on the day. They still remain heavily short based on Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.94, up 4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.38 1/4, unchanged; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.11, up 4 3/4 cents.

EU Wheat Mostly Firmer, Fresh News Limited

11/03/13 -- EU wheat futures closed mixed, but mostly a little higher. After a week where nearby prices closed lower every day last week, every little helps I suppose.

On the day, London wheat closed with Mar 13 down GBP0.95/tonne at GBP195.30/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP1.25/tonne higher at GBP184.00/tonne. Mar 13 Paris wheat went off the board today, new front month May 13 was EUR3.25/tonne firmer at EUR233.50/tonne.

After a busy week on the news front last week, culminating in the USDA report on Friday, the week ahead promises much less in the way of excitement at this stage.

An acutely weak pound traded either side of 1.49 against the US dollar, and even managed to decline against the euro today, itself under pressure following a credit rating downgrade for Italy from Fitch Ratings on Friday night.

Friday's USDA report included a 1 MMT upgrade to the EU's 2012/13 wheat exports to 19.5 MMT, export licenses for 13.7 MMT of soft wheat have already been issued by Brussels, along with 750 TMT of durum wheat.

The USDA said that Egypt will import 1 MMT less wheat this season than it anticipated last month. Iran (+1 MMT), South Korea (+0.5 MMT), Algeria (+0.3 MMT) and China (+0.2 MMT) will import more than forecast in February, they said. EU-27 ending stocks were cut 0.5 MMT to 9.5 MMT.

Ukraine said that they have now exported 18.2 MMT of grain so far this season, up 38% on a year ago. That includes 6.2 MMT of wheat, 9.7 MMT of corn and 2 MMT of barley. Spring plantings are said to be 5% complete. They are also now getting much colder temperatures and snow, like much of the rest of Europe, which could harm unprotected crops.

India are said to be rejecting bids against last week's wheat tenders as being too low, with the last traded price of USD303.40 FOB said to be the minimum level that they are prepared to take. Subsequent bids have been in the USD297-300 range.

Oman bought 20 TMT of Canadian wheat for April shipment over the weekend. At the moment there are no high profile wheat import tenders pending, although it is rumoured that Saudi Arabia may be back in the market soon to supplement their recent 575 TMT wheat purchase from the US, EU and Australia.

Favourable precipitation was reported to have moved across the north central Plains over the weekend. Also, active rains in the southwestern Plains and west central Midwest further improved moisture there. "Much warmer temperatures across the Plains this week will melt snow in north central areas, and will spur winter wheat spring growth in southern areas," said MDA CropCast.

More US ethanol plants are said to be bidding aggressively for wheat due to high prices and limited availability of domestic corn.

EU Rapemeal Prices

11/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today. There's concern over how this week's sub-zero temperatures might affect winter OSR, particularly in the UK and France. Nearby meal is supported by the large front-end premiums in the soya market.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session:

The Morning Vibe

11/03/13 -- The overnight grains are a little firmer with wheat up a cent or so, corn up 4 and beans up 5. London wheat is GBP0.75/tonne weaker in new crop Nov, nearby Paris wheat expires today, May 13 is up EUR1.25/tonne. The pound is just over 1.49 against the dollar and hovers around 1.1470 versus the euro.

Traders are busy analysing the nitty gritty of the USDA report from Friday night. In amongst all the numbers was a hike of 1 MMT in 2012/13 EU wheat export potential to 19.5 MMT reflecting the strong export pace that we've seen all season.

They also made a small upwards tweak to EU-27 production last year, from 131.7 MMT to 132.3 MMT. Even so that means they've cut ending stocks here from 10 MMT to 0.5 MMT. Ending stocks were also reduced at other leading exporting nations like Australia (from 6.3 MMT to 5.8 MMT) and Canada (from 6.1 MMT to 5.7 MMT).

They're obviously weighing up the political situation in Egypt, who's imports were revised downwards from 9.5 MMT to 8.5 MMT, with ending stocks there cut from 5.6 MMT to 5.1 MMT.

Wheat imports were raised for Iran (3 MMT to 4 MMT), South Korea (5 MMT to 5.5 MMT), Algeria (5.2 MMT to 5.5 MMT) and China (3 MMT to 3.2 MMT).

US corn exports were cut as expected but domestic usage was raised to leaving US corn stocks unchanged at 632 million bushels (16 MMT), which was a surprise as an increase was expected. These are apparently the smallest US corn stocks in 17 years and represent only 3 weeks worth of supply.

US soybean stocks were expected to be cut, but they resisted that, clearly seeming to think that 125 million bushels is as tight as they are prepared to go on that one. That is little more than 2 weeks worth of supply.

No wonder then that there's already some talk of excessive wetness in the South delaying early plantings with this pushing back projections for the first crops to be harvested in the late summer. With only 2-3 weeks worth of supply a late harvest is not what the doctor ordered.

Shipping delays of 40-50 days out of Brazil and the threatened upcoming one day strike (plus the forecast for heavy rains) will underpin demand in the US.

Wheat prices in the European part of Russia have fallen around 8% in the past month as farm selling picks up to generate enough cash to fund their spring activities, say Agritel.

Ukraine say that they have shipped 18.2 MMT of grains so far this season, a 38% increase on a year ago. The total includes 6.2 MMT of wheat and 9.7 MMT of corn, along with just over 2 MMT of barley. Western parts of Ukraine got 20cm of snow overnight following two days of freezing rain. Expect some damage to exposed crops, says my Agronomist chum Mike Lee out there. Kindly, Mike hasn't mentioned the weekend's football. Yet.

South Korea have bought 68 TMT of optional origin corn at USD310.90 C&F overnight, with South America the most likely origin.

India's MMTC have apparently picked up a best bid of USD301.10 FOB in a tender to sell 100 TMT of wheat from the west coast port of Pipavav. Last week's tenders to export wheat from the ports of Kandla and Kakinada are reported to have been scrapped as the bids were too low. The last price that we know that the government accepted is USD303.40 FOB, and for now they appear to be setting this level as a minimum requirement.