Nogger's Blog: 19 May 2013

Chicago Mixed Ahead Of Long Weekend

24/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The volatility with front month July beans continues. Ahead of a 3-day weekend there was probably some profit-taking and unwinding of spreads going on which saw the Jul/Nov spread narrow by 28 cents. Nearby bean availability is incredibly tight, but with funds looking to exit July longs and/or roll them into Nov then we could see plenty more crazy closes like this between now and the expiry of the front month on Jul 12th. Strong demand for meal sees the US The September-April crush running at 4.8% above year ago levels, yet the USDA is currently estimating the total US crush to be down 4% this season. Soybean imports need to rise, or the domestic crush needs to slow right up, failing which 2012/13 ending stocks will be a whole lot tighter than the 125 million bushels that the USDA presently stubbornly refuse to dip below. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that 85% of their bean crop has been harvested. They cut their production forecast to 50.6 MMT from a previous estimate of 51.3 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast Argentina's soybean crop at 48.5 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They said that harvesting is 93% done versus 90% a week ago. Rabobank estimated the US soybean crop in 2013 at 3.269 billion bushels, a rise of 8.4% on last year. They predicted yields at 42.5 bu/acre versus the USDA's 44.5 bu/acre. They see world 2013/14 soybean production rising from 263.6 MMT this season to 277.2 MMT next, with ending stocks up from 55.2 MMT to 62.3 MMT. They cut their forecast for CBOT soybean prices in the final quarter of 2013 to USD11.75/bushel. At the turn of the year in their 2013 outlook they were predicting USD13.00/bushel in Q4 of this year. All eyes will now be on Tuesday night's planting progress report from the USDA, with soybeans expected to be around 35-40% sown versus 28% as of last Sunday night. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.76 1/4, down 23 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.47 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD428.20, down USD8.80; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.24, down 42 points. Jul 13 beans were up 27 1/4 cents on the week, with nearby meal up USD3.10 and front month oil down 28 points.

Corn: As with soybeans front month Jul 13 corn fell and new crop rose in pre-weekend positioning. Next week's price direction will likely be dictated by weekend weather events and Tuesday night's planting progress report. The trade is expecting that to show corn plantings at around 80-90% complete versus 100% a year ago and 95% on average. Taiwan's MIPA bought 60 TMT of Brazilian corn for August shipment overnight. An Israeli private buyer purchased 75 TMT of what was thought to be South American origin corn for June-September shipment. Around 20 TMT of Argentine corn apparently arrived in Brazil's northeastern state of Bahia yesterday. Production in that region was hit by drought this season. Rabobank forecast the US corn crop rising from 10.78 billion bushels last year to 13.94 billion in 2013, a rise of 29.3%. They have the average corn yeild this year pencilled in at 157 bu/acre versus the USDA's 158 bu/acre and 123.4 bu/acre in 2012. They see the world 2013/14 corn crop rising from 840.6 MMT last year to a record 953.5 MMT. That's less than the USDA's 965.9 MMT, but they also predict lower corn usage and therefore higher corn ending stocks than the USDA. They forecast 2013/14 world carryout at 161.7 MMT, versus 126.8 MMT this season, and 159.1 MMT from the USDA. That's a 2013/14 stocks to use ratio of 18% versus the USDA's 17.1% and compared to 15% this season. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that 50.5% of the Argentine corn crop is harvested versus 46% a week ago. They predicted production of 24.8 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. The Argentine Ag Ministry have this season's corn crop estimated at 25.7 MMT. The most recent USDA figure is 26.5 MMT. Rabobank cut their forecast for Q4 CBOT corn prices to USD5.00/bu. Deutsche Bank predicted that prices could go lower than that, suggesting "new crop corn prices south of USD4.00 a bushel" in one of the most bearish forecasts yet. July 13 Corn closed at USD6.57 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.36 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents. For the week front month July was up 4 1/2 cents and Dec 13 rose 17 cents.

Wheat: The rumoured Chinese business that sent prices sharply higher yesterday was confirmed, with the USDA announcing the sale of 180 TMT of new crop SRW US wheat to China. In what appeared to be a classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" move the market closed lower. Maybe that was pre-weekend profit-taking after yesterday's rally that took CBOT prices back up above USD7/bu, or maybe it was disappointment that the quantity confirmed wasn't higher. The rumour is that China booked 600-700 TMT of US SRW wheat for July/August shipment, so there may be more sales announced next week. South Korea's MFG bought 114 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for Sep/Oct shipment. The Asian country is said to have bought over 700 TMT of wheat and corn in the past 18 days. Germany are said to have exported over 1 MMT of wheat to Iran in the Jul/Mar period. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentine wheat plantings for 2013/14 at 3.9 million hectares, that's considerably less than the Ag Secretary's forecast of "close to 4.5 million" earlier in the week, even if it is up 8.3% on last year. They said 3.2% of the wheat crop has been planted so far. Rabobank forecast a 2013/14 world wheat crop of 694.2 MMT, an increase of almost 55 MMT, or 8.6%, on last year. World ending stocks will rise from 166.5 MMT this season to 181.1 MMT next representing a stocks to use ratio of 22%, they said. They forecast the 2013 US all wheat crop at 2.050 billion bushels, slightly lower than the USDA's 2.057 billion, and 9.7% down on production in 2012. Canadian plantings remain slow. Saskatchewan crop planting as of May 20th is 27% complete versus 19% a week ago and 44% for the 5-year average. Active showers moving though Kansas and Nebraska this weekend and early next week should be of some benefit. Early winter wheat harvesting is said to be underway in Texas. Ukraine got beneficial rain this week, and so too did parts of Australia. Southern and central Russia has decent rains forecast in the 7-14 day time frame. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.97 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.45 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.05 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was 14 1/4 cents firmer, with Kansas up 8 1/2 cents and Minneapolis 2 cents higher.

EU Wheat Mostly Lower, Settles At 11-Month Lows On Weekly Charts

24/05/13 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly lower on the day. Despite a bit of a midweek rally, today was still the lowest close on the weekly chart for a front month for both London and Paris wheat since last June.

Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP1.25/tonne higher at GBP180.00/tonne. Everything else was lower with benchmark Nov 13 ending GBP1.25/tonne easier at GBP178.00/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR3.00/tonne weaker at EUR204.75/tonne.

For the week that puts old crop Jul 13 London wheat finished GBP1.75/tonne lower, new crop Nov 13 ending GBP0.85/tonne weaker and Nov 13 Paris wheat settling EUR1.50/tonne easier.

The bulls are clinging to lingering Black Sea production concerns, yet APK Inform today said for Russia: "Despite the fact that the weather conditions were not always conducive to both planting works and wintering period of winter grains in some regions, according to the results of our polling, agricultural producers estimate the condition of winter crops areas as mainly good and satisfactory. As for the losses of winter crops, then only a few respondents reported about losses."

They estimated Russian winter wheat production at 31.3 MMT, up 23% on last year, but gave no forecast for spring wheat.

Agritel meanwhile said that most of Ukraine had received 15-30mm of rain in the past 7 days, with more in the forecast.

Turkey said that they are expecting a 9.2% jump in wheat production to 21.9 MMT this year, which explains why they have been actively tendering to sell nearby wheat of late. They are also forecasting an 11% jump in barley output to 11.0 MMT along with a 7.6% increase in corn production to 4.9 MMT.

Analysts are lining up to forecast sharply lower grain prices later in the year it would seem.

Rabobank today cut their ideas on MATIF wheat prices to EUR190/tonne in Q4 of 2013. That compares to a forecast of EUR204/tonne in December, and represents a fall of around 7.2% from where we are currently, based on the Nov 13 price. Whilst they made no forecast for London wheat, a similar percentage reduction here would cut prices to around GBP165/tonne by the end of the year.

Maybe even more worryingly than that is that they see both Paris and Chicago wheat falling back close to their late 2011 and/or early 2012 historical lows. The late 2011 low for London wheat was GBP140/tonne.

Rabobank also said that they see Chicago corn values falling to around USD5/bu and Chicago soybeans to USD11.75/bu by the end of the year. Deutsche Bank meanwhile suggested that new crop Chicago corn prices could dip below USD4/bu in one of the most bearish reports around yet.

Other news shows that Brussels issued 247 TMT of soft wheat export licenses this week, bringing the 2012/13 marketing year to date total to 17.6 MMT, up 47% versus 12.0 MMT this time last year. Corn imports meanwhile are up almost 89% at 10.0 MMT.

FranceAgriMer reported French winter wheat conditions at 67% good/excellent, unchanged from last week. Winter barley was cut one point in the good/excellent category to 66%, spring barley fell two points to 78% and corn five points to 72%.

They said that corn planting has slowed a little, up from 81% to only 87% complete in the past week, and is now slightly behind last year's pace of 89% done. Winter wheat is 19% headed versus 8% last week and 53% a year ago. Winter barley headed is up from 46% last week to 84%, although that still lags last year's 99%.

EU Rapemeal Prices

24/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent mixed, generally a bit weaker on old crop and a little firmer on new crop. Reports filtering through suggest that maybe French rapeseed crops are in worse shape than thought. Prospects in Germany and Ukraine however look good.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

May13	292.00	-1.00
Jun13	292.00	-1.00
FH Jul13	285.00	-2.00
LH Jul13	278.00	unch
Aug/Oct13	227.00	+1.00
Nov13/Jan14	225.00	+1.00
Feb/Apr14	224.00	+3.00
May/Jul14	222.00	+2.00

Morning Snippets

24/05/13 -- The overnight Globex grains are mixed, with wheat and soybeans mostly a couple of cents or so firmer and corn down a similar amount.

It's a long weekend in the States, with the markets closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

Brussels issued 247 TMT of soft wheat export licenses this week, bringing the 2012/13 marketing year to date total to 17.6 MMT, up 47% versus 12.0 MMT this time last year. Corn imports meanwhile are up almost 89% at 10.0 MMT.

Agritel say that Ukraine should have a record corn crop this year after the planted area improved sharply.

Turkey is expecting a 9.2% jump in wheat production to 21.9 MMT this year, which maybe explains why they are tendering to sell 240 TMT of red milling wheat for May/Jun shipment. They are also forecasting an 11% jump in barley output to 11.0 MMT along with a 7.6% increase in corn production to 4.9 MMT.

Rabobank meanwhile are forecasting Paris wheat prices to dip to EUR190/tonne by Q4 of this year, an 8.5% decline from where Nov 13 closed last night. If we factor in a similar fall for London wheat then that puts prices around GBP15/tonne lower later in the year than where Nov 13 currently resides.

They see soybeans at USD11.75/bu in the final quarter of the year, around 5.5% below last night's Nov 13 close, with corn prices down to USD5/bu, some 6.5% under where Dec 13 finished yesterday.

In the US next week "deep troughing in the West and strong ridging in the East brings moist, unstable southwesterly flow across the Plains and Western Con Belt. More severe weather, abnormally wet conditions and variable temperatures will occur across both the HRW Belt, Spring Wheat Belt and Western Corn Belt," say QT Weather.

I have seen some reports this morning suggesting that the Rosario dock workers strike has ended, but can't confirm this. Other reports say that talks have broken down and that the strike will continue into next week.

Chicago Rises, Although Beans Finish Well Off Session Highs

23/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The soybean market raced higher early doors, only to sell-off late and close with only modest gains. An interesting situation seems to have developed in nearby July. If you're short, and haven't got the physical beans to deliver, then you need to cover in those shorts at whatever price the market dictates. If, on the other hand, you're a fund long then taking delivery of those beans isn't an option so you have to sell. There's more open interest in front month July 13 than any other, so we could see further extreme volatility in that in the weeks ahead. We also have a long weekend coming up with US markets shut for Memorial Day on Monday. Weekly export sales of 183,500 MT of old crop beans and 838,900 MT of new crop topped expectations for combined sales of 400-800 TMT. The USDA also announced the sale of 115 TMT of new crop to China under the daily reporting system. Old crop commitments are now 99.6% of the USDA target for the season. The dock workers strike at the leading Argentine port of Rosario is said to have caused a backlog of 50-100 vessels depending on which report you read. Around 80% of Argentine grain exports are shipped out of Rosario, I gather. Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated the country's 2012/13 bean crop at 50.6 MMT versus a previous estimate of 51.3 MMT. Trade rumour suggests that the US will import around 3-4 cargoes/month of South American soybeans in the May/Jul period. Front month Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.99 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents, having traded over 40 cents higher at one point; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.43, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD437.00, down USD3.60; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.66, up 2 points.

Corn: Corn also closed well off the intra-day highs, settling around 3 to 4 cents higher. Weekly export sales were 104,600 MT of old crop and 341,600 MT of new crop versus expectations of a net 200-500 TMT combined. Existing commitments are now 88% of the USDA target for the season. MDA CropCast raised their world corn production estimate by 2.7 MMT from last week due to better yield potential in the US. "Rains were rather limited early this past week, but did increase across northwestern areas later in the week. The rains once again slowed remaining planting. Rains are now easing there, which is allowing planting to improve again," they said. They now see the US 2013 crop nearly 31% higher than last year at 339.2 MMT. Strategie Grains trimmed slightly their EU-28 corn production estimate by 0.1 MMT to 66.4 MMT which is still up 15% on year ago levels. Argentina's Ag Ministry estimated their 2012/13 corn crop at 25.7 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. The USDA currently say 26.5 MMT. CEC estimated South Africa’s 2013 corn crop at 11.44 MMT versus a previous estimate of 11.56 MMT. Taiwan's MFIG seek 40-60 TMT of optional origin corn for August shipment. South American corn exports are in full swing. Argentina are said to have exported around 2.3 MMT of corn between May 1 – May 21. Oman bought 10,000 MT of corn from Argentina overnight. Brazilian ethanol imports look viable again with 2 vessels at the Santos port destined for the US, say Benson Quinn Commodities. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.62, up 3 1/2 cents; Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.63 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents.

Wheat: For once wheat was the leader, closing higher on all three exchanges after rumour swept the floor that China were in for US SRW wheat. CBOT wheat got dragged back up above the USD7/bu mark on the strength of that on short-covering. Reports after the close suggest that they may have been enquiring, but didn't actually buy anything. Japan bought 122 TMT of the usual mixture of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their regular weekly tender. Tunisia bought 75 TMT of optional origin wheat and 25 TMT of optional origin barley for June/July shipment. Algeria bought 400 TMT of optional origin wheat for August shipment. Weekly export sales of sales of 239,400 MT of old crop and 713,600 MT of new crop beat trade forecasts for a combined 400-700 TMT. Existing commitments stand at 97% of the USDA target for a season with only 2 weeks left to run. That includes more than 2 MMT of outstanding old crop sales, so it looks unlikely therefore that this target will be met. Argentina Ag Ministry estimated Argentina’s 2012/13 wheat crop at 9.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. MDA CropCast left their 2013 world wheat production estimate unchanged from last week, including projecting Canadian production at a record 29.7 MMT, the same figure released by Ag Canada earlier in the week. Russia's ProZerno said that they expect a grain harvest of 97 MMT this year, up sharply versus the official figure of 71.7 MMT in 2012 and even slightly higher than the 94.2 MMT produced in 2011. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.03 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.54 1/2, up 11 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.13 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents.

EU Wheat Rises For Second Day

23/05/13 -- EU grains extended their mini recovery into a second day, shrugging off the downdraught of falling equities after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at a scaling back of QE. If the market gets the jitters at the merest hint of it what will it do when it becomes a reality? They can't keep on buying USD85 billion worth of assets every month ad infinitum can they?

US wheat futures rose in afternoon trade, supporting European markets, after weekly export sales came in better than expected and rumours of China buying US wheat spooked some CBOT wheat shorts.

London wheat closed the day with expiring front month May 13 unchanged and untraded at GBP177.75/tonne. New front month Jul 13 ended GBP0.75/tonne higher though at GBP178.75/tonne and new crop Nov 13 finished the day GBP1.10/tonne firmer at GBP179.75/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat ended up EUR1.75/tonne at EUR207.75/tonne.

The overall trend still looks down, although there are maybe still just enough concerns around surrounding Black Sea production potential to stop the market sliding too much further just yet. The high close of the year for a front month London wheat was GBP215/tonne on Jan 15, so we have fallen around 17% since then based on tonight's close.

The plight of the alarming decline of old crop values relative to new crop in the UK was partially explained by the HGCA today revising their 2012/13 marketing year wheat import estimate up by 275 TMT from their March forecast to 2.537 TMT, a year-on-year increase of 179%. They pegged exports this season at 800 TMT, a drop of more than two thirds on 2011/12. That takes carryout at the end of this season to a surprisingly ample 1.935 MMT, which is 29% more than at the end of 2011/12 despite last year's production disaster.

Those figures included a downwards revision for Human and Industrial wheat usage of 279 TMT versus March due to the closure of Ensus. Some would argue that given the problems at Vivergo too final H&I usage will need to be reduced further. In addition, imports could ultimately turn out to be higher than 2.537 MMT, taking ending stocks over the 2 MMT mark. UK corn imports in 2012/13 meanwhile were estimated at 1.4 MMT, up 41% on year ago levels.

Strategie Grains trimmed slightly their EU-28 soft wheat production estimate from 131.1 MMT to 130.9 MMT, forecasting a durum wheat crop of 8.0 MMT. That gives us an EU-28 all wheat crop of 138.9 MMT this year, a 5% increase on last year. Corn production was also scaled back a little from 66.5 MMT to 66.4 MMT, although this is still up 15% versus 2012. Barley output was raised from 54.2 MMT to 55.3 MMT, principally due to increased plantings in France, Germany and the UK.

Grain production in the Black Sea countries probably holds the key to where prices go from here. Lanworth yesterday estimated Russia's wheat crop at 50.8 MMT, Ukraine's at 20.3 MMT and Kazakhstan's at 17.4 MMT. The first two being towards the low end of other trade estimates. Even so that gives the three a combined wheat crop of 88.5 MMT, a 47% increase on last year.

Ukraine's APK Inform Agency estimated the 2013 grain crop there at 53.3 MMT, and exports in 2013/14 at 29.1 MMT. Output in 2012 was 42.1 MMT and exports this season are likely to finish up around 24.5 MMT, so we are looking at potential increases of 27% and 19% respectively there.

Russian analysts ProZerno are forecasting a Russian grain crop of 97 MMT this year (the Russian Grain Union expanded their estimate to 90-100 TMT earlier this week), which would be a 35% increase on last year. Of that they estimate the wheat crop at 57.3 MMT (up 52% year-on-year), with the barley crop at 16.5 MMT (up 18%) and corn production at 8.5 MMT (up 4%). They see Russia's 2013/14 wheat exports rising from 10.7 MMT this season to 17 MMT in 2013/14, a 59% increase.

If the Black Sea region does end up with production and export volumes of this kind of magnitude then they are likely to depress the market further once the harvest begins, and confidence in the validity of these sort of numbers increases. They are almost always aggressive early season sellers, even when they haven't got large crops to market. When they have, they can be cut-throat.

In other news, Algeria bought 400 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for August shipment in a tender to buy 50 TMT. Some are saying that France will most likely end up as the country of origin, just because they usually are Algeria's top supplier, others think that Black Sea wheat may figure.

Grain exports from the French port of Rouen slipped to 81 TMT this week, including 75 TMT of soft wheat.

USDA Weekly Export Sales

23/05/13 -- The USDA reported a pretty robust set of weekly export sales today, here's the highlights:

SOYBEANS

Sales of 183,500 MT of old crop and 838,900 MT of new crop topped expectations for combined sales of 400-800 TMT. Actual weekly shipments were however a marketing year low of 100,800 MT. The US has now shipped 34.6 MMT of soybeans this season, with outstanding sales of a further 2 MMT versus the USDA projection for the entire marketing year total of 36.74 MMT. That makes existing commitments 99.6% of the USDA target.

Corn

Corn sales came in at 104,600 MT of old crop and 341,600 MT of new crop versus expectations of a net 200-500 TMT combined. Shipments this week were 270,000 MT. Total 2012/13 shipments now total 13.3 MMT with a further 3.9 MMT of sales outstanding versus the USDA projection of 19.5 MMT for the season. Existing commitments are therefore 88% of the USDA target.

WHEAT

Wheat sales of 239,400 MT of old crop and 713,600 MT of new crop beat trade forecasts for a combined 400-700 TMT. Shipments were 441,700 MT. Total 2012/13 wheat shipments are now 25.0 MMT with a further 2.1 MMT outstanding with only two weeks reporting left to go. Existing commitments stand at 97% of the USDA target, so it looks unlikely that the latter will be met as sales of 900 TMT of old crop need to be made between now and the end of the month, all of which has to be shipped, along with the 2.1 MMT of outstanding sales.

EU Rapemeal Prices

23/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a tad easier today as crop conditions improve in France and Germany. Even so one French analyst pegged the 2013 rapeseed crop there at only 4.5-4.8 MMT versus 5.5 MMT last year and the 5.2 MMT recently estimated by the USDA

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

May13	293.00	-2.00
Jun13	293.00	-1.00
FH Jul13	287.00	unch
LH Jul13	278.00	+1.00
Aug/Oct13	226.00	-1.00
Nov13/Jan14	224.00	-1.00
Feb/Apr14	221.00	-4.00
May/Jul14	220.00	-3.00

Chicago Rallies Desite Outlook For Bumper World Production In 2013/14

22/05/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans posted decent gains, supported by a firmer corn market. Although Argentine dockers in the port of Rosario have returned to work a backlog of 40-50 vessels has apparently already built up. The threat of further strikes in both Argentina and Brazil in the weeks and months ahead will keep the pressure on very tight old crop US supplies. Oil World are projecting that the US will import 32 million bushels of soybeans themselves this year, around 870 TMT, as demand for meal stays high. US soybean sales are already 99% of the USDA's target for the season, and 98% in the case of meal (the target for which was increased in this month's WASDE report). Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are a combined crop year total of 400-800 TMT and in the case of meal 100-225 TMT. Lanworth projected the world 2013/14 soybean crop at a record 286 MMT, fractionally higher than the USDA's recent 285.5 MMT estimate. They have the US soybean crop estimated at 3.430 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 3.425 billion, an increase of almost 14% on last year. China's CNGOIC said that the rapeseed harvest there is 5-10 days ahead of normal, forecasting a crop of 14.1 MMT, up 0.7% on 2012. Harvesting in the top rapeseed province of Hubei is at the halfway stage, and 80% done in the second highest producing province of Hunan. They said that China had imported 2.912 MMT of rapeseed between Jun12-May13 so far, up 40.9% from a year ago, estimating full season 2012/13 imports at a record 3.1 MMT. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.94 1/4, up 16 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.38 3/4, up 18 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD440.60, up USD1.90; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.64, up 16 points.

Corn: The corn market got a boost from the USDA confirming the sale of 360 TMT of new crop corn to China, along with a further 180 TMT to "unknown" destinations. In addition to that the weekly ethanol grind came in at 875,000 barrels/day, up 18,000 bpd from last week and the highest level in 11-months. Ag Canada estimated corn production there this year at 13.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 12.5 MMT and up 5.7% on last year. Lanworth estimated the global corn crop in 2013/14 at a record 965 MMT, similar to the USDA's 965.9 MMT forecast earlier this month. The Australia and New Zeland Bank said that Brazilian corn production in 2012/13 could rise "close to 80 MMT for the first time" versus the USDA's current estimate of 76 MMT due to favourable conditions for "safrinha" or second crop corn. Lanworth pegged Brazilian corn production at 78.1 MMT this year, up 7% on last season. Taiwan cancelled a tender for 60 TMT of Brazilian or South African corn for July/Aug shipment due to high prices. Some are suggesting that US corn plantings could reach 90% complete by Sunday night, from 71% a week previously. The potential problem with having a very large percentage of the US corn crop planted all at the same time is that it will also likely pollinate all at the same time. That leaves a large percentage of the crop vulnerable to a heat wave should they get one later in the summer. The latest 3-month (Jun/Aug) weather outlook from the NOAA predicts above normal temperatures for the western plains, southeast, delta, and east of Indiana. Normal temps are expected from central Illinois north into Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Normal precipitation is expected for nearly the entire Corn Belt with the exception of the western half of Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 200-500 TMT. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.58 1/2, up 18 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.30 1/2, up 10 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was dragged along for the ride by corn and beans. For once Chicago gained on Minneapolis wheat, suggesting that there may have been some unwinding of long MGEX and short CBOT positions. Lanworth forecast the 2013/14 global wheat crop at 694 MMT, a little lower than the USDA estimate of 701 MMT, but still up nearly 6% on last year. The US wheat crop was estimated at 2.02 billion bushels, unchanged from previous estimate and 11% down on last year. Production everywhere else around the globe though is generally seen higher this year. The 2013/14 Australian wheat crop was estimated at 24.1 MMT versus a previous estimates of 24.3 MMT but up 9.5% on last year. The Argentine Ag Secretary forecast 2013 wheat plantings there to rise 40%. Ag Canada estimated wheat production there this year at a record 29.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 28.4 MMT and up 8% on 2012/13. Lanworth trimmed their their forecast for wheat production in Ukraine to 20.3 MMT from 21.9 MMT previously, but that's still 29% more than output in 2012. Germany’s Farm Co-op estimated their 2013 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT, up 6.3% from 22.3 MMT in 2012. Analysts estimated the French wheat crop at 36.0 MMT versus 35.6 MMT in 2012. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said eastern Australia should see above-normal rainfall in Jun/Aug, which would be extremely welcome. Tunisia is tendering for 67 TMT of milling wheat and 25 TMT of feed barley, both of optional origin for June shipment. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400-700 TMT. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.88 1/2, up 8 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.43 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.07 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents.

EU Wheat Consolidates, Old Crop London Wheat Now Cheaper Than New Crop

22/05/13 - EU grains closed mostly higher, with May 13 London wheat posting it's first gain in seven sessions aided by a weak sterling as the market consolidated from hitting fresh 11-month lows yesterday. There are few that would suggest with any degree of confidence that this is the start of a new trend however.

London wheat closed with front month May 13, which expires tomorrow, up GBP0.50/tonne to GBP177.75/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP1.75/tonne steadier to GBP178.15/tonne. Paris wheat closed with front month Nov 13 EUR2.00/tonne higher at EUR206.00/tonne.

The pound was under pressure on the back of a 1.3% fall in retail sales in April, with food sales slumping 4.1% last month, along with the release of the minutes of this month's Bank of England MPC meeting showing a second 6-3 split on the thorny issue of whether or not to raise QE. The fall in retail sales was the largest in almost 2 years, taking sterling down to 1-month lows against the euro and a 6-week low versus the US dollar.

New front month Jul13 old crop also is now a discount to new crop Nov 13 London wheat. The differential was GBP14.25/tonne just a month ago, and at the turn of the year Jul 13 commanded a GBP26.25/tonne premium to Nov 13. Much heavier 2012/13 imports than forecast by Defra clearly mean that there's far more old crop wheat around looking for a home mid-May than many expected.

GBP200/tonne feed wheat is now a distant memory, and it could stay that way for a while. German old crop feed barley is currently offered at EUR176/tonne (GBP151/tonne) ex store Saxony, with 12% milling wheat at EUR210/tonne (little more than GBP180/tonne). New crop feed wheat out of Ukraine meanwhile is being offered at USD245/tonne FOB (circa GBP162/tonne).

There are still a few question marks over grain production in the Black Sea this year. American satellite imagery firm Lanworth Inc today cut their forecast for wheat production in Ukraine to 20.3 MMT from 21.9 MMT previously, that's still 29% more than output in 2012 however. Meanwhile they pegged the world wheat crop at 694 MMT, only marginally below the 697 MMT record set two years ago, and 5.9% up on last year. Lanworth also estimated the world corn crop at a record 965 MMT and the world soybean crop at a record 286 MMT in 2013/14.

Welcome rain is in the forecast for Ukraine over the next few days, moving into southern Russia by the weekend and through next week. That should be beneficial for both winter and spring crops if they materialise. "(The) Russian barley crop 2013 has potential to reach 16.8 MMT vs. 14.0 MMT in 2012. Current conditions are favourable for malting barley," said RMI Analytics.

Turkey announced it would sell 240,000 MT of red milling wheat for shipment between May 31 and June 19, the second such tender in the last fortnight, in an attempt to make a bit of room for the imminent (and expected to be substantial) 2013 harvest.

Algeria are tendering to buy 50 TMT of optional origin soft wheat for August shipment. They like to buy French, but that origin may be undercut by wheat from the Black Sea on this occasion.

Jordan passed on their 150 TMT wheat tender yesterday, and immediately decided to retender again overnight.

Egypt remain absent from the market, as their public tenders seem destined to become a thing of the past. There are some reports that they may have bought in Turkey's recent tender offering. The Egyptian government say that they have now bought almost 2.5 MMT of wheat from local farmers, up from just under 1 MMT a fortnight ago.

Germany's March wheat exports were 610 TMT versus 582 TMT in March 2012. That takes Jul/Mar exports to 5.31 MMT, up almost 30% versus 4.1 MMT a year previously. A fair proportion of that has come into the UK. Barley exports of 326 TMT were well ahead of the 65 TMT exported in March of last year and the largest monthly total since April 2011.

The Argentine Ag Secretary said that farmers there will increase their wheat plantings by 40% in 2013/14, due to a combinations of tax rebates and favourable growing conditions. Planting there is already underway.

EU Rapemeal Prices

22/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are around a euro lower today in thin trade. Prices still look overvalued relative to soyameal going forward, keeping end-user buying interest to a minimum.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

May13	295.00	-3.00
Jun13	294.00	-2.00
FH Jul13	287.00	-1.00
LH Jul13	277.00	-1.00
Aug/Oct13	227.00	-1.00
Nov13/Jan14	225.00	-1.00
Feb/Apr14	225.00	-1.00
May/Jul14	223.00	-1.00

Chicago Mixed, Nearby Beans Very Tight

21/05/13 -- Soycomplex: It was the same old theme once again, old crop higher, new crop lower. Front month July rallied to an 8-month high as old crop remains extremely tight. Some US processors are apparently prepared to pay up to USD16/bu for cash beans. Paraguay’s exporters chamber, CAPECO, estimated their 2012/13 soybean crop at a record 9.0MMT versus the USDA estimate of 8.35 MMT. Customs data put China's April soybean imports at 3.98 MMT, down 18.59% from year ago. Jan/Apr imports are 15.47 MMT, down 14.77% from a year ago. Industry analysts though see May bean imports at 5.67 MMT, rising to a record 7.8-8.0 MMT in June. Import in June 2012 were 5.6 MMT. Safras e Mercado trimmed slightly Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean crop estimate to 82.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 82.5 MMT. The FT carried a report today saying that Argentine farmers have finally slowly begun selling soybeans "to cover their commitments". Agritrend say sales are now around 1.8-2.0 MMT/month and could rise to 3.5-4.0 MT/month in the months ahead. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.78 1/4, up 13 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.20 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD438.70, up USD3.40; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.48, up 28 points.

Corn: The corn market is doing the reverse of soybeans, with old crop losing ground versus new crop despite Monday night's USDA planting numbers suggesting that farmers planted 42 million acres of corn in the week through to Sunday night, a record area in just one week. Informa’s Senior Vice President forecast a 2013/14 corn futures price of somewhere between USD4-5/bu, Macquarie forecast the 2014 average corn price at USD4.75/bu. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013 corn exports at 18.5 MMT, up 8% from a year ago. They placed Argentina’s 2013 corn crop at a record 25.7 MMT. They estimated Brazil’s 2013 corn crop at 77.81 MMT (also a record). China's Ministry of Agriculture said as of May 17th the corn acreage in Heilongjiang (one of china’s biggest corn production areas) is at 101.43 million acres, up 2.54 million versus a year ago. Ag Processing Inc said that they will be permanently closing a Nebraska ethanol plant which had been idled since February due to poor margins. MARS estimated EU-27 corn yields at 6.87 MT/ha, up 16% on a year ago. US planting progress has been slowed by rain again this week in some parts of the Midwest. Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated the 2013 harvest at 61% complete, 3% ahead of last year. China's Jan/April corn imports stand at 1.45 MMT, down 17.76% from a year ago. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.40, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.20 1/4, unchanged.

Wheat: The recent trend of Minneapolis widening the gap between itself and Chicago wheat continues on the back of slow spring wheat planting progress. It's not just the US where spring plantings are behind schedule. Russia’s Ag Ministry reported spring wheat has so far been planted on 4.5 million hectares, down 1.6 million from a year ago. The Canadian Wheat Board said western Canada’s spring grain planting is 45-50% complete, up from 15% a week ago, but still below average. Things are looking more promising in South America though. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 11.0 MMT, up 22% from a year ago. They also estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 5.5 MMT, up 25% from a year ago. Rain is finally in the forecast for eastern Australia too. Jordan made no purchase (again) in their tender for 150 TMT of milling wheat. Algeria are tendering for 50 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for August shipment. Japan are tendering for 122,222 MT of milling wheat, of which 67,897 MT is specified to be of US origin. China's April wheat imports were 203,337 MT, down 30.69% from a year ago. That brings Jan/Apr wheat imports to 894,556 MT, down 36.75% from a year ago. Russia’s Grain Union increased Russia’s 2013/14 exportable grain surplus to 25.0 MMT from a previous estimate of 20.0 MMT. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.80 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.38 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.13 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents.

Front Month London Wheat Slumps To New 11-Month Low

21/05/13 -- EU grains closed mixed, after having traded down to fresh lows for the recent move in early trade. Sterling weakness helped London wheat a little following news that domestic CPI inflation had fallen from 2.8% in March to 2.4% in April. That was taken as potentially widening the scope for further QE from the Bank of England. The minutes of the May MPC meeting are due out tomorrow.

May 13 London wheat finished GBP1.25/tonne lower at GBP177.25/tonne - an 11-month low for a front month - and new crop Nov 13 ended GBP0.40/tonne higher at GBP176.40/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR0.75/tonne firmer at EUR204.00/tonne.

Fund money continues to shy away from commodities, seeing other investments as potentially offering more lucrative returns. Heading into the London close the FTSE100 looked like it was going to finish at a fresh 12 year high. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are also hovering around historic highs.

The EU Commission's MARS unit released their revised May forecasts for yields, trimming slightly the outlook for wheat, corn and OSR and raising marginally it's estimate on barley. "In general, the current prospects for EU-27 yields remained close to the average," they noted, despite acknowledging problems in the UK and Ireland.

EU-27 soft wheat yields were forecast down from 5.63 MT/ha last month to 5.54 MT/ha this time round. That's still up 2.4% on last year, but slightly lower than the 5 year average of 5.63 MT/ha. UK yields were estimated at 7.68 MT/ha versus 8.02 MT/ha last month. That would still be up 15% or 1.0 MT/ha on last year if they are correct, and marginally ahead of the 5 year average of 7.66 MT/ha.

EU-27 barley yields were seen averaging 4.56 MT/ha versus 4.48 MT/ha last month, up 4.8% on last year's 4.35 MT/ha. UK barley yields were predicted at 5.54 MT/ha versus 5.52 MT/ha last month and last year.

EU-27 corn yields were estimated at 6.87 MT/ha versus 6.96 MT/ha last month, up more than 16% on year ago levels even if slightly below the 5 year average of 6.97 MT/ha. EU-27 OSR yields were estimated at 3.06 MT/ha versus 3.09 MT/ha last month and 3.10 MT/ha last year. The 5-year average is 3.04 MT/ha. UK OSR yields were only dropped slightly from last month's forecast of 3.50 MT/ha to a still very ambitious looking 3.32 MT/ha, which is only marginally down on last year's 3.40 MT/ha yield.

For the UK they noted that the "growth cycle remains delayed for all crops leading to high uncertainty in yield forecasts." In Germany they said that "the significant delay at the end of March has mostly been recuperated and a boost in vegetative growth has been observed since mid-April. Spring sowing started with a slight delay but the weather was favourable for a prompt germination."

In France "remote sensing indicators suggest a much more favourable outlook in the northern half of the country than a few weeks ago, although there is still a noticeable delay in crop development of winter cereals compared to the average, of about 10 days for Centre, Pays de la Loire and up to 20 days for Champagne-Ardennes and Picardie," they said.

In international news the Russian Grain Union revised their forecast for grain production there this year from 90-95 MMT to 90-100 MMT. They increased their 2013/14 grain exportable surplus estimate from 20 MMT to 25 MMT. The Russian government sold 39,196 MMT of intervention grain in this week's tender, bringing the total volume sold since sales began last October to 3.23 MMT.

India's MMTC withdrew a tender to sell 100,000 MT of wheat after only picking up one bid at USD268 - some USD32/tonne below the government's minimum target level of USD300/tonne.

German milling wheat for May delivery in Hamburg was said to be offered at EUR230/tonne (USD297/tonne), with new crop September offered at EUR208/tonne (USD268/tonne).

Israel seeks 80 TMT of corn, 60 TMT of feed wheat, and 20 TMT of barley for June/Sept shipment of North American, South American, European or Black Sea origin.

EU Rapemeal Prices

21/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little steadier today, following gains in Chicago soymeal values last night. Trade is quiet however, with consumers content to sit on their hands for the time being. Rapemeal quotes look expensive when taken as a percentage of value of soymeal, and particularly so given the potentially bearish outlook for new crop soymeal prices.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

May13	298.00	-1.00
Jun13	296.00	+1.00
FH Jul13	288.00	+3.00
LH Jul13	278.00	+3.00
Aug/Oct13	228.00	+1.00
Nov13/Jan14	226.00	+1.00
Feb/Apr14	226.00	+1.00
May/Jul14	224.00	+2.00

Morning Snippets

21/05/13 -- The overnight market sees beans unchanged on front month July, but everything else is red, with new crop Nov 13 down 6 1/2 cents. It's old crop corn that is taking the biggest pasting, down 14 1/2 cents nearby, with wheat also showing around 10-11 cents lower.

New crop Dec 13 corn is down 8 1/4 cents, another decline of a similar magnitude would see it trade with a 4 in front of it.

The USDA numbers suggest that farmers planted 42 million acres of corn in the week through to Sunday night, a record area in a week.

US winter wheat crop conditions fell again, and spring wheat planting remains delayed, but the market is instead choosing to look at the global supply picture for wheat.

Whilst there are still some concerns over Ukraine and Russian grain production this year, output estimates are still well ahead of year ago levels. IKAR yesterday increased their Russian wheat production forecast to 53.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 52.5 MMT and 37.7 MMT in 2012.

A report on Reuters today says that Paraguay's 2012/13 soybean crop may have come in at a record 9 MMT this year, versus the government's forecast of 8.4 MMT and the USDA's 8.35 MMT, according to the CAPECO export chamber. Plantings were up 5-6% for this season, and yields have beat the previous record of 2.7 MT/ha, coming in at 3.0 MT/ha, they say.

The FT carry a report today saying that Argentine farmers have slowly begun selling soybeans "to cover their commitments". Agritrend say sales are now around 1.8-2.0 MMT/month and could rise to 3.5-4.0 MT/month in the months ahead.

Ag Processing Inc, said to be the largest farmer‐owned soybean processor in the world, have said that they will be permanently closing their Nebraska ethanol plant which had been idled since February.

Anacer said Italy Jan-Feb soft wheat imports fell by almost a third to 465,888 MT this year versus 690,797 MT a year previously. Corn imports in the same period rose to 671,063 MT from 388,807 MT a year ago.

Old crop Jul 13 London wheat opened GBP1.75/tonne lower at GBP177.00/tonne this morning - the contract's lowest level in 11 months.

Chicago Market Mixed Prior To USDA Plantings Report

20/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The same old theme of very tight old crop stocks supported the nears, whilst suggestions of potentially record US soybean production in 2013 weighed on the deferred positions. Vietnam bought 120 TMT of US soymeal for Sept/Nov shipment. Weekly export inspections of 3.328 million bushels, were subdued compared to 13.079 million a year ago, although in line with last week's effort. Even so 2012/13 exports are so well advanced already that hitting the USDA target for the season looks to be a formality at this stage. Although old crop US export sales have slowed up markedly of late, any sign of a switch back to the US due to South American logistical problems is a threat to already razor thin US ending stocks, especially with an anticipated delayed start to the 2013 harvest. Brazilian dockers were on strike last week, workers in the Argentine port of Rosario went on strike today. The availability picture later on in the year though still looks a whole lot rosier. The US Soybean Export Council forecast the 2013 US soybean area at 80.0 million acres, almost 3 million higher than the USDA's estimate of 77.1 million. The Council also said that soybean prices could fall below USD10/bu by July due to an acreage switch from corn to beans. After the close the USDA said that 24% of the 2013 US soybean crop was in the ground, up from 6% a week ago, but well behind the 5 year average of 42% - the market was expecting plantings at 25-35% complete. The percentage of the crop emerged was 3% versus 32% a year ago and 14% for the 5 year average. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that 85% of the soybean crop there has been harvested versus 83% a year ago. Farmer sales to exporters are said to be well behind normal levels as growers continue to sit on their stocks due to spiralling inflation and an ever weakening Argentine peso. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.64 1/2, up 16 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.25, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD435.30, up USD10.20; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.20, down 32 points.

Corn: Unlike soybeans, today we had new crop corn gaining on old crop. Maybe this was in anticipation that the USDA would report corn plantings at the low end of the 50-75% range of trade estimates. They came out with a figure of 71% after the close, meaning that US farmers equalled their busiest corn planting week on record (set in 1992), sowing 43% of the crop in a week. Planting still lags the 5 year average of 79%, but not alarmingly so. It remains to be seen how well this crop develops from here though as much of it has been sown under far from ideal conditions. The USDA said that 19% of the crop is emerged versus 5% a week ago and 46% for the 5 year average. A senior Agriculture Economist at Kansas State University said if planting delays continue through to the end of May the 2-4 million acres of corn could be switched to beans. That appears to be consistent with the US Soybean Export Council ideas. Weekly corn export inspections of 14.557 million bushels were up from 12.7 million a week previously and better than the 7-12 million that the trade was expecting. Weekly inspections will need to average 15.6 million bushels to meet the USDA's export target for the season. The USDA also reported the sale of 120 TMT of new crop corn to "unknown" destinations. China’s Ministry of Agriculture said as of 16 May 96.7% of the 2013 corn crop had been planted in the northeast of the country. Japan's corn usage, and purchases from the US, keep ebbing away. Japan’s Ag Ministry said that the use of corn in animal feed in March was 42.2% versus 44.3% a year ago. They also said that Japan imported 1.31 MMT of corn in March, down 9.2% from a year ago, with only 40.5% of March imports coming from the US as opposed to 87.8% a year ago. The Argentine Ag Ministry said 61% of their corn crop has been harvested versus 58% a year ago. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.49 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.20 1/4, up 3/4 cent.

Wheat: The USDA reported spring wheat plantings at 67% complete versus 43% a week ago and 76% for the 5 year average. They have spring wheat emergence at 22% versus 10% a week ago and 49% for the 5 year average. Worryingly, winter wheat conditions continue to deteriorate. The USDA raise the proportion of the crop rated poor/very poor by 2 points from last week to 41% compared to only 14% a year ago. Good/excellent conditions fell one point versus last week to 31% and versus 58% a year ago. Winter wheat headed was 43% versus 29% a week ago and 62% for the 5 year average. Reports suggest that severe storms over the weekend may have further damaged some winter wheat in Oklahoma and Kansas. Weekly export inspections of 21.149 million bushels were decent, the trade was expecting somewhere between 15-23 million. Russia’s Ag Ministry said that as of May 17th spring grain planting is 51.9% complete versus 63.4% a year ago. IKAR estimated the 2013 Russian wheat crop at 53.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 52.5 MMT and up almost 43% on last year. Welcome rain is expected in both Ukraine and southern Russia this week. Ukraine's Trade Ministry estimated Ukraine’s May-June grain exports at 2.97 MMT, taking full season 2012/13 grain exports up to 24.5 MMT. Effective tomorrow, after the close, the CME Group will raise margins on wheat. On the side lines of an international grains conference in Bali an executive from Australia’s largest co-op said that Indonesia may become the world’s largest wheat importer within 5 years due to its large population, strong GDP growth and changing diets. The USDA currently has Indonesia down to import 6.6 MMT of wheat in 2012/13, rising to 7.0 MMT in 2013/14. Chicago wheat continues to lose ground to Minneapolis wheat. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.85 1/4, up 2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.45, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.11 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents.

EU Wheat Hits Fresh 11-Month Lows

20/05/13 -- EU grains slid to fresh 11-month lows in thin trade due to public holidays in several European countries including France, Germany and the Netherlands. Even so, the Paris market was open for business, but volume was light.

London wheat closed the day with front month May 13 down GBP3.00/tonne to GBP178.50/tonne, and with new crop Nov 13 ending GBP2.85/tonne easier at GBP176.00/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat ended EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR203.25/tonne. That puts the differential between old crop Jul 13 and new crop Nov 13 London wheat at only GBP2.75/tonne, a month ago that was GBP12.85/tonne, as old crop premiums continue to erode.

"UK new crop feed wheat futures remain at around a GBP5.00/tonne premium Paris milling wheat – against a norm of GBP10-15.00/tonne discount. This pricing relationship is likely to be supportive of new season imports," the HGCA note.

Russia’s IKAR raised their 2013 wheat production forecast from 52.5 MMT to 53.8 MMT. Their total grain crop estimate was increased from a previous estimate of 90.0 MMT to 92.0 MMT, up almost 30% versus 71 MMT last year, despite reports of possible yield reductions in some areas due to dryness.

"Scattered strong showers last week improved prospects in Krasnodar, one of the 4 main winter-wheat districts. The new forecast calls for more beneficial rain in southern Russia," said Martell Crop Projections.

That may help the early strong pace of Russian spring grain plantings, but which have slowed dramatically in recent weeks, pick up again. Spring grains have now been planted on 15.7 million hectares, or 51.9% of the total planned area as of Friday, 11.5% less than on the same date last year, according to the local Ministry.

The Ukraine Ministry said that their Jul 12/Apr 13 grain exports were 21.5 MMT, including 12.2 MMT of corn, 6.83 MMT of wheat and 2.1 MMT of barley. They said that they expect to export a further 2.33 MMT of corn, 184 TMT of wheat and 73 TMT of barley in the last two months of the marketing year. If so that would place full season exports at around 14.53 MMT of corn (versus the USDA estimate of 13.5 MMT), 7.0 MMT of wheat (7.0 MMT) and 2.17 MMT of barley (2.2 MMT).

Agritend estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 wheat area at 4.0–4.2 million hectares versus the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate of 3.9 million and up 11-17% versus 3.6 million in 2012/13. Planting is now underway and conditions are said to be more or less ideal.

CBH said Australia’s 2013/14 wheat crop will increase by 16% this year.

There's been a lot of talk lately about cash-strapped Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, wanting to become self-sufficient for their wheat needs within 4 years. They usually import around 8-10 MMT a year but that is expected to halve this year, falling to only 4-5 MMT.

Oil World pegged the world OSR crop at a record 64 MMT, up 2.2% on last year. Despite the UK crop falling almost 27% on last year, Europe's output will rise 3.1% to 19.9 MMT led by a rebound in production in Germany and Poland, they said.

The market is now focused on tonight's planting progress report from the USDA, particularly in relation to corn planting which is seen increasing sharply from week ago levels of 28% to around 60-70% complete.

EU Rapemeal Prices? Nein!

20/05/13 -- There are no rapemeal prices quoted the continent today due to the Whit Monday holiday, even though the French and German stock markets and MATIF grains are open for business.

To keep you entertained instead, here's the latest world rapeseed production forecasts from our little Germanic chums Oil World (they bombed our chippy, but we're all friends now etc):

World production is seen up 2.2% to a record 64.0 MMT in 2013, with EU output rising 3.1% to 19.9 MMT. Both those are close to the USDA's forecasts of 63.39 MMT and 20.0 MMT respectively.

In Europe they expect Germany to regain top spot (they're so bloody competitive aren't they?) in the EU production table with a crop of 5.5 MMT, up 14.6% on last year. France meanwhile will slip into second this year with a crop of 5.1 MMT, down 7.3% on 2012. Poland leapfrog the UK into third slot, with a crop of 2.2 MMT, up 15.8%.

Meanwhile the UK will somehow manage to produce a rapeseed crop of 1.9 MMT (rolls eyes), which would be "only" down 26.9% on last year.

I love the German sense of humour, don't you? In honour of it here's my favourite German joke: Why are there no aspirin in the jungle? Because it would not be commercially viable to attempt to sell pharmaceuticals in a largely unpopulated rainforest, especially when taking into consideration the lack of infrastructure and the logistical difficulties that would bring.

Elsewhere, Ukraine will produce a 2.0 MMT rapeseed crop this year, they say. That's up sharply, like over 50% sharp, on last season's 1.3 MMT.

Canada will weigh in with a crop of 14.5 MMT, up 4.3%, but Australia's output will slump 25% to 3.0 MMT.