Chicago Grains Jump - Led By Wheat
26/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, but were a follower rather than a leader today. Continued wetness means that "the market isn’t expecting much progress over last week concerning planted acres," according to Benson Quinn concerning Monday's crop progress report from the USDA. As of last Sunday night around 8.5 million acres of US soybeans still had to be planted. Last week's figure of 90% sown may have advanced to perhaps 93-94% done it is thought. Once Monday's report is out of the way, we only have one more sleep until we get the USDA's key acreage and quarterly stocks reports due out on Tuesday. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. As of last Sunday only around 76.2 million acres of soybeans were in the ground, and in some cases they were under water. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Argentine 2015 soybean harvest is now 99.6% done, bringing in 60.7 MMT of an estimated record 60.8 MMT crop this year. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money flipping from a net short of around 63,500 lots to a near 2,000 contract long position for the week through to Tuesday night. "Plenty of shorts are caught on the wrong side in addition to the funds attempting the exit positions," suggested Benson Quinn. That could bring further choppy trade next week in the run-up to these important USDA announcements. In China, the Shanghai Composite closed almost 7.5% lower on Friday "as investors began to show concern about another wave of new listings absorbing liquidity in the market," reported the BBC. In Brazil's state of Mato Grosso, the planting of safrinha soybeans will be prohibited starting with the 2015/16 growing season, and the state of Parana may end up going the same way, says Dr Cordonnier. Mato Grosso has a compulsory 138 day soybean-free period starting on May 1st and ending on September 15th. Parana currently only has a 92-day ban on growing soybeans. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.02, up 1 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.86, up 8 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $341.30, up $4.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.22, down 14 points. For the week that puts Jul 15 beans 30 1/2 cents higher, with Nov 15 up 46 1/4 cents, Jul 15 meal up $18.20 and Jul 15 oil adding 67 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 8-10 cents higher. Midwest wetness supports the market, which advanced more than 30 cents during the course of the week. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings in next Tuesday's USDA report at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Before we get the new USDA numbers, the trade will be looking at crop conditions in Monday's USDA crop progress report. Ohio good to excellent fell 19 percentage points last week alone, with Indiana down 15%, North Caroline down 11% and Illinois corn falling 6% on the top two categories. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money accounts had decreased their net short position by 25,649 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night, but they are still short around 95,000 lots. Those shorts will be feeling a little nervous ahead of the release of next week's USDA numbers. Meanwhile the Midwest is not the only area in the world experiencing excessively wet conditions, say Martell Crop Projections. "China’s top corn province Heilongjiang also is too wet with 150-200% of normal rainfall in recent weeks. Heavy rain that began in mid May has intensified in June, adding up to 200 mm (8 inches) in western Heilongjiang. The eastern province received 165 mm of rainfall. These rainfall amounts are way above average, hampering corn planting efforts. Heilongjiang is the largest corn province in China making up 18-20% of national corn output. A delayed start to the corn spring planting season in Northeast China may lead to trouble, limiting heat units for corn growth and development. The growing season is relatively short due the northern latitude," they say. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine corn harvest is 49.1% complete on 1.6 million ha, producing a crop of 13.87 MMT so far, and stood by their estimate for full season output of 25 MMT this year. FranceAgri Mer cut French corn crop ratings by 2 points to 83% good to very good. Coceral estimate this year's EU-28 corn crop down 11% to 65.74 MMT. Output in France, the largest producer in Europe, will fall 9% to 14.89 MMT, they said. Temperatures may near 100F (38C) in corn areas in southern France in the second half of next week, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather told Bloomberg. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.85, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.02, up 9 3/4 cents. For the week, Jul 15 corn was up 31 3/4 cents, and Dec 15 added 33 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with strong gains on the day, and for the week. "We’ve seen a period of generally favorable weather for wheat production around the world, outside of the Plains drought. However, that pattern appears to be over, with talk of heat and dryness in Europe, Russia, Canada and expectations that El Nino will lead it to be a problem in the Australian spring," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. That Plains drought has given way to excessive rains, hampering winter wheat harvesting in the US and potentially causing problems for some spring wheat areas later in the season too. As often happens, the hot and dry weather on the US Plains earlier in the season, seems to mean that protein levels are high this year though, even if bushel weights are lower than had been hoped for in what has been harvested so far. French winter wheat conditions are in decline, cut by 4 points in the good to very good category by FranceAgriMer today, having been dropped 2 points the previous week. Conditions are however still better than they were this time a year ago, but the concern now is that further serious heat due next week could cause more damage. Spain's Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias meanwhile slashed their crop production estimates for wheat and barley compared to what they were hoping to achieve only a month ago. They now have the Spanish wheat crop estimated down 14% year-on-year at 4.92 MMT, well below the 7.53 MMT that they were predicting in May. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange were unchanged on their estimate for Argentine winter wheat plantings at 3.9 million ha. Coceral today estimated the EU-28 soft wheat crop down 5.2% on last year at 140.62 MMT, with all wheat production down 4.9% at 148.22 MMT. The EU-28 barley crop was pegged down 5.8% at 56.68 MMT. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings for Tuesday at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. "The situation for Western Canadian wheat production is dire as temps will be well above normal through much of next week," said Benson Quinn. Rabobank said that they see the potential for “considerable price volatility” related to El Nino in global wheat prices in August and September when Australian yields are determined on east coast. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.62 1/4, up 30 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.59 1/4, up 24 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.95 3/4, up 21 1/4 cents. For the week, that puts Chicago wheat up 73 3/4 cents, with the Kansas market adding 56 cents and Minneapolis gaining 52 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Post Solid Gains In High Volume Trade
26/06/15 -- EU grains closed with solid gains on the day, and for the week. A combination of sharply higher US markets, deteriorating EU weather conditions and the weak euro in the face of the as yet failure to reach an accord with Greece, were all supportive today.
At the close Jul 15 London wheat was up GBP3.75/tonne to GBP114.80/tonne, Nov 15 was EUR3.25/tonne higher at GBP128.80/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat jumped EUR8.75/tonne higher to EUR194.25/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR4.50/tonne at EUR173.50/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed climbed EUR3.75/tonne to EUR391.25/tonne.
For the week, Jul 15 London wheat gained GBP3.80/tonne, or 3.4%, and Nov 15 rose GBP6.30/tonne, or 5.1%. Sep 15 Paris wheat meanwhile closed the week EUR15.75/tonne higher than it began it, for a net weekly gain of 8.8%. Aug 15 corn added EUR11.75/tonne, or 7.3%, during the course of the week and Aug 15 Paris rapeseed rose EUR12.00/tonne, or 3.2%.
New crop Nov 15 London wheat posted a GBP4.50/tonne trading range today, and traded as high as GBP131.00/tonne at one stage, it's best levels since early April - but was only able to hold onto some of those advances at the finish. Well over 1,000 lots of the benchmark contract changed hands during the session.
The most active Dec 15 Paris wheat contract meanwhile managed to settle just half a euro off the session high of EUR196.50/tonne, up EUR8.25/tonne on the day, with over 162k lots traded.
A very hot and dry forecast for much of Europe next week and beyond, plus a continuing over-wet outlook for US grains in the Midwest, has sent market shorts scrambling to cover in some of their exposure this week.
Much of Europe is set to swelter under temperatures as much as 10C higher than normal over the next two weeks, with rainfall totals also generally set to remain light.
FranceAgriMer today cut the proportion of the French winter wheat crop rated good to very good by four percentage points to 81%. Some 23% of the French crop is now officially rated in the highest "very good" category, down from 36% at the end of May. The heat and dryness is clearly affecting wheat more than the more mature winter barley crop, for which good to very good ratings were left unchanged at 85%. Spring barley was cut to 79% good to very good from 82% a week ago, and corn was pegged at 83% in the top two categories versus 85% a week ago.
It's far from a disaster just yet, but it warrants attention, and if the current forecast verifies then further downgrades look likely over the next couple of weeks.
The 2015 French winter barley harvest is 4% done nationally, with the Poitou-Charentes region 15% done, followed by 11% of the crop in the Centre region. Around 3% if the 2015 French winter wheat crop has been cut in the Midi Pyrenees area of the country, they said, although the rest of the country is still to start.
Spanish production hopes meanwhile have gone downhill rapidly this month. Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias pegged soft wheat output there this year down 14% at 4.92 MMT. That number is all the more startling when you consider that in May they were predicting production to rise 31% to 7.53 MMT, say Bloomberg.
The outlook for the Spanish soft-wheat crop in Castilia and Leon, the two largest growing regions, was cut to 2.27 MMT from the 3.71 MMT predicted in May, they said.
This year's Spanish corn crop is now estimated to decline 8.8% to 4.27 MMT, barley production this year is still seen rising 1.1% year-on-year to 6.69 MMT they were calling that crop as high as 8.44 MMT only a month ago.
Temperatures may near 100F (38C) in corn areas in southern France in the second half of next week, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather told Bloomberg. The south east of the UK meanwhile could also see the mercury rise as high as 35C, next Wednesday/Thursday, some are predicting.
UK production prospects still look good, although some cereal crops on light land have started to show visual symptoms of moisture stress, said the HGCA.
Coceral today estimated the EU-28 soft wheat crop down 5.2% on last year at 140.62 MMT, with all wheat production down 4.9% at 148.22 MMT. The EU-28 barley crop was pegged down 5.8% at 56.68 MMT, with corn production seen falling 11% to 65.74 MMT. EU rapeseed production this year was forecast 11.3% lower at 21.38 MMT.
Coceral have the UK wheat crop at 14.96 MMT, down 9.4% on last year, with yields averaging 8.0 MT/ha versus 8.55 MT/ha a year ago. The UK barley crop is estimated at 6.66 MMT, down 5%, and the UK rapeseed crop was forecast at 2.27 MMT, down 9.6% compared to 2014.
In Germany, another country that has been affected by heat and dryness, soft wheat production this year was called 10.5% lower at 24.89 MMT, with barley output down 13.2% at 10.12 MMT and the rapeseed crop down 19.2% at 5.06 MMT.
In other news, Brussels granted 361 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this week, taking the total for the season to 31 MMT, up almost 12% versus 27.7 MMT a year ago.
Good Gains Across The Board For Chicago Grains
25/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with strong gains, with beans closing above $10/bu on a front month for the first time since Mar 3. Weekly export sales refuse to die on old crop, coming in at 118,800 MT, along with a further 202,500 MT on the new crop. Shipments for the week to Jun 18 were 150,000 MT taking total exports so far this season to almost 47.4 MMT. A further 3.1 MMT of outstanding sales takes total net commitments for 2014/15 to 50.5 MMT, which is 101.5% of the USDA target for the season. Heavy overnight rain, and the forecast for more to come sparked some short-covering. "Standing water from flooding threatens Midwest soybeans, especially, planted later than corn and smaller in size. The worst conditions were in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, as of June 21st , where widespread flooding has developed. Missouri soybeans were the worst of the lot only 34% good-excellent, while Illinois soybeans were the best with 60% good-excellent," said Martell Crop Projections. MDA CropCast cut 72 million bushels off last week's US soybean production forecast, taking that down to 3.751 billion bushels, a 5.4% decline on a year ago. The IGC released their first soybean estimates for 2015/16, pegging the global soybean crop at 316 MMT versus the USDA's 317.6 MMT estimate. "Global soybean plantings could expand slightly in 2015/16 but, with average yields potentially retreating, production is likely to
fall. Nevertheless, owing to large carry-in stocks, global supplies are anticipated to remain comfortable and, with processing and consumption expected to grow more moderately, world ending are set to rise to a fresh peak," the IGC said. Looming rapeseed/canola tightness was noted: "Despite anticipated demand rationing, world rapeseed/canola ending stocks are set to fall by more than one-quarter year on year, to 4.0 MMT," they added. They have this year's Argentine soybean crop at 61 MMT, falling a little to 57 MMT next season. Brazil's output is seen rising from 96 MMT to 98 MMT next season. This year's US crop was pegged at 104.8 MMT, a carbon copy of the USDA's current prediction. China's imports were seen at 73.5 MMT this season, rising to a new record 78 MMT in the next. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 48% of their 2014/15 soybeans sold versus 41% a year ago. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.00 1/4, up 18 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.77 3/4, up 21 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $336.70, up $8.70; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.36, up 9 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 10-12 cents firmer. Midwest wetness prompted some short-covering. Export sales were fair at 496,800 MT for delivery in 2014/15 and 297,500 MT for 2015/16. China took one cargo of the old crop. Shipments themselves of 1.1 MMT were in line with what's required to meet the USDA's target for the season. China also accounted for one cargo of those this week. Strong storms that were said to have hit southern Iowa last night then dropped down into some of the more saturated areas of Missouri, dumping up to 7” of rain on the region, said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "Corn has weathered the extreme wetness better than soybeans, planted earlier, and therefore taller and less susceptible to drowning. US corn was 71% good-excellent June 21st, significantly better than 60% good-excellent in US soybeans. This would be the 3rd time in 6 years of June flooding in Midwest crops. How did corn respond to previous June excessive wetness? The US corn yield did not suffer as much as anticipated, the 2010 national corn yield finishing right on the trend line – average – while the 2014 yield was significantly above trend," noted Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections. Could it be that the market is over-reacting here, and forgetting the old adage that "rain makes grain"? This year's El Nino has been likened to the previous "record" event of 1997/98. US corn yields that season were virtually unchanged from the previous year, falling less than a half percent, and soybean yields actually finished higher, up 3.6%. MDA CropCast cut their US corn production estimate by 51 million bushels to 13.7509 billion, a fall of 4.3% on last year's record crop. They also trimmed 1.53 MMT off Ukraine's crop, taking that down to 24.7 MMT. The IGC estimated the global 2015/16 corn crop at 961 MMT, up 10 MMT from last month, although 3.6% down on last year's record. They estimated world ending stocks 6 MMT higher than a month ago at 187 MMT. Argentina's crop this season was placed at 30 MMT, falling to 28 MMT next season. Brazil's crop was estimated at 80 MMT, dropping back to 78 MMT next season. This year's US crop was forecast at 332 MMT, considerably less than the USDA's current 346 MMT estimate. Taiwan are tendering for 40-65,000 MT of US, Brazilian, Argentine or South African corn. Indonesia are said to be in the market for 50,000 MT of Brazilian material. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 53% of their 2014/15 corn sold versus 44% a year ago. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.76 1/2, up 10 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.92 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents. Mar 16 corn closed above $4 for the first time since April 23.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with robust double digit gains on all three exchanges. Weekly export sales of 434,300 MT actually managed to beat modest trade expectations for sales of 200-400,000 MT. Exports this week came in at 388,300 MT. The US appears to be getting all of Canada's rainfall as well as their own. "In western Canada, a large ridge of high pressure would be in control blocking rainfall and perpetuating drought in spring wheat. The forecast is very dry in the prairie provinces, providing a sharp contrast from the very wet conditions anticipated in Midwest," said Martell Crop Projections. Today's gains came despite the IGC adding 10 MMT to last month's forecast for the global 2015/16 wheat crop, taking that up to 715 MMT, a modest 0.8% drop on a year ago. World ending stocks in 2015/16 were raised 6 MMT to 200 MMT. The USDA currently have the world 2015/16 wheat crop at 721.5 MMT, and global carryout at 202.4 MMT. The IGC's numbers included an optimistic looking 27 MMT wheat crop in Australia this year, production of 150 MMT in Europe, a 3 MMT hike in Russian output to 55 MMT and a 1 MMT increase for Ukraine taking their crop up to 21 MMT. They cut their outlook on the US all wheat crop by 0.8 MMT to 58.2 MMT. MDA CropCast estimated the world wheat crop at 710.6 MMT this year. They were unchanged on the US all wheat crop at 2.186 billion bushels. The National Bank of Australia said that El Nino could cut wheat production there this year to 20 MMT or less, which is far below the estimates currently in the market place from the likes of ABARES, the USDA and the IGC. That would potentially be Australia's smallest wheat crop since 2007/08 if their prediction comes true. Europe is set to kick off July with some very warm temperatures, which could cause a few yield losses in Spain, France, Germany, Poland and even the UK. Temperatures at home here in the UK are forecast to hit 30C and maybe even higher, peaking around Wednesday/Thursday next week. These should be accompanied by some heavy thunderstorms though. The preliminary results of a Bloomberg survey found traders/analysts forecasting and average EU soft wheat crop of 140.8 MMT this year. The French soft wheat crop was estimated at an average of 37.6 MMT and the German all wheat crop at 25.8 MMT. A previous survey had soft wheat production in Europe at 140.1 MMT, with France at 38.1 MMT and the German all wheat crop at 25.8 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 82% of their 2014/15 wheat sold versus 58% a year ago. Japan tendered for 114,510 MT of wheat, buying 87,380 MT of it from the US, with the rest being of Canadian origin. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32, up 14 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.35 1/4, up 10 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.74 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Lower Around Noon, Early French Barley Harvest Reporting Some Good Results
25/06/15 -- EU grains trade mostly lower. The euro is a touch weaker, with the clock ticking on a last minute deal for Greece ahead of Tuesday's $1.6 billion debt repayment due to the IMF.
At noon, Nov 15 London wheat is GBP1.20/tonne lower at GBP123.85/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was is down EUR1.75tonne at EUR182.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn is down EUR1.00/tonne at EUR166.00/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed is unchanged at yesterday's 14-month closing high of EUR383.50/tonne.
Agritel report that the early barley harvest in France is showing some good results in terms of both yield and quality. They do however note that, as you might expect, crop maturity was a bit further down the line for winter barley before the recent dryness and heat issues hit hardest. It may not therefore be safe to conclude that wheat will fare similarly when that harvest begins.
Talking of which, Commodity Weather Group say that July is set to begin warmer than normal across much of the continent, especially so in France and Spain where temperatures could be 3-7C above normal for the time of year.
That could add to stress in winter wheat. These warmer than normal conditions could also prevail into August, they add.
The GFS model would appear to concur with this view. That is giving 2-8C above normal temperatures for Spain, France, Germany, Poland, northern Italy and the UK in the Jul 2-10 period. It is also predicting below normal rainfall for just about everywhere with the exception of northern England and Scotland, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria.
The early 2015 harvest in Ukraine has been completed on around 20,000 ha of the 7.62 million ha of winter grains (barley), according to the Ag Ministry there. Ukraine growers are also said to have planted 803,000 ha of winter rapeseed, harvesting of which should also get underway shortly.
The National Bank of Australia said that the developing El Nino weather event could cut wheat production there to 20 MMT or less, according to a report on Bloomberg. That would be the smallest Australian wheat crop in 8 years.
It would also be far less than the 23.6 MMT currently predicted by ABARES and the USDA's recent 26 MMT estimate.
The IGC were even higher last month at 27 MMT. They are due to release their latest June estimates later today.
MDA CropCast today estimated the Australian 2015/16 wheat crop at 23.1 MMT. They also trimmed their outlook on Europe a little to 142.1 MMT, down 5% on a year ago. Other than that they made no changes to their world wheat production forecasts.
They knocked 2.8 MMT off their global corn crop estimate, with 1.5 MMT of that coming from Ukraine, where production is now seen at 24.7 MMT versus 28.4 MMT a year ago. They also pared back their view on US corn production by 1.3 MMT due to recent wetness.
Commerzbank said that they expect the pound to slowly appreciate in value against the euro, getting to 1.42 in the first half of next year, and hitting 1.45 in the second half of 2016. Essentially saying that they aren't exactly bullish on sterling, but they are less bearish on the pound than they are on the single currency. They don't see UK interest rates starting to rise until Q1 of next year.
Barclays see things happening along the same lines, but in a much quicker time frame. They predict the pound getting to 1.45 by the end of this year, and moving on to 1.47 in Q1 of 2016.
Chicago Ends Lower, Positioning Ahead Of Tuesday's USDA Report Seen Largely Done
24/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4-5 cents easier. It seems that the trade has positioned itself where it wants to be heading into next week's USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report due on Tuesday. "Regardless of concerns about pending production, it appears the funds have pared their positions to manageable levels and the trade may need a new supportive story to sustain this move into the report," said Benson Quinn. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. Allendale said 85.105 million yesterday and Informa were at 86.76 million last week. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. Oil World cut their forecast for the EU rapeseed crop by 200 TMT to 21.8 MMT, a 10.5% decline on a year ago, saying that rapeseed prices would command a "sizeable" premium to soybeans throughout the 2015/16 season. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the range of 350,000-800,000 MT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.81 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.56, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $328.00, down $3.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.27, up 45 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 994,000 barrels/day versus 980,000 bpd the previous week. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. Informa were out last week with an estimate of 89.199 million acres and Allendale gave us the highest trade guess of 91.742 million yesterday. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Dr Cordonnier said that the Brazilian safrinha corn crop is expected to produce record yields due to "excellent" weather conditions. Brazilian analyst Agroconsult estimate second crop corn production at 52.5 MMT, and maybe more, he said. That takes the total crop up to at least 83 MMT versus a USDA estimate of only 75 MMT. Agroconsult see Brazilian corn exports at a record 27.1 MMT, up by almost a third on 20.6 MMT a year previously and well above the USDA's forecast of 24 MMT. Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's 2015/16 corn exports at 3 MMT. CNGOIC said that China's 2014/15 corn imports may total 4 MMT, despite government attempts to discourage foreign buying and persuade local traders to buy some of their own huge state-owned stockpiles. Ukraine could supply up to half of that volume it is thought. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the range of 650,000 MT to 800,000 MT. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80 1/2, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market gave up some of the gains achieved over the past couple of sessions. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. Japan is in the market for 114,500 MT of wheat of mixed origin in it's usual weekly tender. South Korea are tendering for 50,000 MT of Australian wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Russia bought 29,295 MT of wheat at today's intervention purchase round, taking the total bought so far to 1.164 MMT. Dryness in parts of Europe and Canada remain a concern. In Canada, prairie spring wheat prospects have been dimmed by drought, probably because of a strong El Nino, said Martell Crop Projections. "Out of seven El Nino’s in the past, dating back to 1980, just one resulted in a favourable wheat yield – the 1982 spring wheat harvest. A second was mediocre, the 1991 wheat yield just slightly below trend. Very poor wheat yields occurred in 5 of the other 7 El Nino years," they noted. "Growing season rainfall has been deficient in Saskatchewan and Alberta, the leading 2 wheat provinces, where just 40-60% of normal rainfall has developed in the past 2 months. Manitoba wheat has fared better, the smallest of the 3 prairie provinces, with heavier rainfall in the past several weeks. Unfavorable dry conditions have developed in western Manitoba, bordering Saskatchewan however," they said. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are a modest 200-400,000 MT. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.24 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.63 3/4, down 6 cents.
EU Grains End Mostly Higher, With Rapeseed At 14-Month Highs
24/06/15 -- EU grains closed the day mostly higher, with Jul 15 London wheat up GBP0.65/tonne at GBP110.65/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR184.25/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR2.75/tonne at EUR167.00/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne higher at EUR383.50/tonne.
For rapeseed this was the highest close on a front month since April 2014.
Oil World have trimmed back their estimate for the EU rapeseed crop by 200,000 MT to 21.8 MMT, down 10.5% on last year's production of 24.36 MMT.
They see plantings for the 2015 harvest down 3%, with yields dropping 8% to 3.33 MT/ha. The latter figure is still above the 3.28 MT/ha average suggested by the EU Commission's MARS unit on Monday. The MARS estimate would potentially cut production to below 21.5 MMT this year.
Oil World now see the German rapeseed crop down 16.8% on a year ago to 5.1 MMT, a fall of more than 1 MMT compared to last year's record.
Production in France is estimated 5.8% lower at 5.2 MMT, and Poland's crop will decline 8.2% to 2.9 MMT, they predict.
They forecast the UK rapeseed crop to fall 7.8% this year to 2.27 MMT versus their figure of 2.46 MMT for output in 2014.
There's some debate in the trade at home whether the old crop tightness seen at the end of the current season is possibly due to 2014 rapeseed production having been overestimated. With more than a GBP30/tonne premium on offer for old crop supplies over new crop, and few if any takers, that would suggest that the old crop supplies aren't really there in any volume.
Thus it would seem that UK carryover stocks into the new season will only be minimal.
The reduction in EU production this year, in contrast to good availability of soybeans, with see rapeseed command a "sizeable" premium over soybeans throughout the 2015/16 season, say Oil World.
Ukraine said that they'd now exported 33.9 MMT of grains this season, including 18.4 MMT of corn, 10.8 MMT of wheat and 4.5 MMT of barley.
Rusagrotrans said that Russia's grain exports in July would double those of June at 2.8 MMT, rising to 3.8 MMT in August as new crop material comes onto the market.
Those numbers are still some way below exports in the same period in 2014 (July 3.12 MMT and August a record 4.64 MMT) due to the fact that exporters were slow to commit to making new crop sales this year due to the on/off imposition of export duties and rouble volatility, they said.
They estimated Russia's 2015/16 full season grain exports at 31.7 MMT, including 22.1 MMT of wheat, 5.2 MMT of barley and 3.0 MMT of corn. These numbers include shipments to Kazakhstan which aren't included in official government data.
The market doesn't yet seem to be factoring in that large scale US wheat quality downgrades this year probably mean more feed grade material coming onto the market, judging by the fact that US corn prices followed wheat higher last night.
The large premium on offer for old crop UK rapeseed over new crop, aren't at all reflected in the domestic wheat market. In fact quite the opposite, with Jul 15 London wheat at a near GBP15/tonne discount to new crop Nov 15.
That won't be encouraging many to sell on the spot market, having carried their old crop this far, provided of course that they don't desperately need the space (or cash) ahead of the start of harvest 2015.
That likely means that there will be an unusually large volume of last year's production getting carried into 2015/16, continuing to weigh on the market - especially given that current sterling strength will make finding export homes a challenge once again in the new season ahead.
Chicago Markets Mixed, Wheat Jumps And Corn Follows But Beans Lag
23/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans, meal and oil all closed with small losses on the nears, although there were some minimal gains in some of the deferred positions. The latter probably came as a result of concerns over the US weather. Whilst a reduction of 2 percentage points in the good to excellent category by the USDA last night was in line with market expectations, some states showed much sharper declines that that. Ohio was down 14% in the G/E category, Indiana fell 13% and Illinois was cut 10%, and of course these are not insignificant soybean producing states. As far as plantings go, 90% complete is the slowest pace since 1996, according to Bloomberg. Last night's report suggested that there were still around 8.5 million acres of soybeans still to be sown in the US this year, using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate. That includes around 4 million in Missouri/Kansas and Nebraska, plus approximately another 0.5 million in Illinois. Despite these problems, Allendale estimated US soybean plantings this year at 85.105 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. Rabobank said that they still expect US plantings to beat the March USDA figure by around 1 million acres. Futures International forecast 2015 US soybean yields to average 44 bu/acre, which is 2 bu/acre less than the USDA. Oil World said that Europe imported 4 MMT of soybeans Mar/May, up 21% from a year ago. Meal imports were down slightly at 5.26 MMT. The largest bean supplier was Brazil with 2.37 MMT, followed by Paraguay at almost 1 MMT. China said that they'd imported 6.127 MMT of soybeans in May, up 3% from a year previously. Brazil at 5.427 MMT was easily the largest supplying nation. Rabobank estimated China's 2014/15 soybean imports at 73.5 MMT, rising to a record 77.5 MMT in 2015/16. They forecast Q4 2015 Chicago soybeans at an average of $8.90, rising to $9.00 in Q2 of next year. Meal prices were estimated averaging $295 in the final quarter of this year, rising to $310 in Q2 of 2016. If they are correct then the market is currently overvalued. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.87 1/2, down 2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.60 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $331.90, down $1.70; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.82, down 10 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 7-8 cents higher. Deteriorating crop conditions, especially in the eastern corn belt likely prompted some short-covering today. Last night's USDA report, whilst only cutting overall conditions by 2 percentage points in the good to excellent category on a national level, sliced 19% off the top two categories in Ohio, cut Indiana 15%, North Carolina was dropped 11% and Illinois decreased by 6%. Fund money was estimated as finishing the session a net buyer of around 16,000 contracts. Spillover support from surging wheat was likely another supportive factor today, although you could debate that a rain-ravaged, low quality US wheat crop is in fact more of a direct competitor with corn than if it came in of milling wheat standard. Rabobank estimated the US 2015 corn area at 89.2 million acres, the same as the USDA's March forecast. They said that yields could exceed 163 bu/acre if the weather "continues to be beneficial" - although some would argue that current conditions in some states such as those mentioned above aren't beneficial at all. Allendale estimated US corn plantings far higher at 91.742 million acres this year. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that this year's developing El Nino is displaying some characteristics of the previous record event of 1997/98. For the record US corn yields were down marginally that year (-0.4%) and soybean yields were up 3.6%. Rabobank added 2 MMT to their Brazilian corn crop estimate, taking that up to 81 MMT, saying that the safrinha crop looks in great shape. They forecast the Ukraine corn crop at 24 MMT, down 2 MMT on last year. They see China's imports at 3 MMT and said that the EU might import 3 MMT more corn next season due to a reduced domestic crop. They predicted US corn prices to average $3.70 in Q4 of this year, rising to $4.00 in Q2 of next year - slightly below where the market currently trades. Commerzbank are more bullish on corn, predicting US prices at $5.50 in the final quarter of 2015. China said that it had imported 403.9 TMT of corn in May, almost all of which (381.8 TMT) came from Ukraine. Argentine farmers are said to be set to increase sorghum plantings this year by 23%, eyeing China's revitalised interest in the crop, and switching away from wheat plantings. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with strong gains for a second session, doubtless helped by short-covering. Widespread reports of crop damage to winter wheat on the rain-sodden US Plains was certainly a supportive feature today. So too is the delayed harvest progress, particularly true in Kansas, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois. That is also holding back second crop soybean plantings in those states. Rabobank said that they have a neutral to slightly bullish price view on wheat prices following recent declines. Wheat prices will still face some harvest pressure, but should find a floor soon, they said. They predicted CBOT wheat prices to average $5.20 in Q4 of this year, and $5.30 by Q2 of 2016. The market is currently a little higher than this however. They added 1 MMT to their Russian wheat production estimate, taking that up to 56 MMT, saying that the country should export more than 20 MMT of wheat next season. The crop in Europe was reduced 1 MMT to 148 MMT on dryness in some areas, notably France and Germany. EU wheat exports could fall 10% to around 30 MMT in 2015/16, they said. US wheat exports may struggle to meet the current "optimistic" USDA forecast of 925 million bushels, they added. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology drew a parallel between current El Nino weather conditions and the record 1997/98 previous event. Australian wheat yields fell 12.4% that year. Dr Cordonnier said that Brazil could achieve a record 6.76 MMT wheat crop in 2015/16. Parana state is 82% planted and Rio Grande do Sul is around 33% done, he said. Near neighbours Paraguay are 100% sown, Uruguay is 85% done and Argentina 22% planted, and conditions in all four countries are currently favourable. That will likely reduce Brazil's import needs, and what they do buy will mostly come from their fellow Mercosur trade partners, rather than the US or elsewhere. China said that it imported 367.7 TMT of wheat in May, with Australia and Canada the largest suppliers. They also imported 726.2 TMT of barley, which came mostly from Australia and France. Reuters said that Indian millers had bought 500 TMT of Australian wheat so far this season, and might need to buy a further similar volume to compensate for a lower quality domestic crop this year. They said that new crop French or Russian offers were in line to take a large slice of this potential new business. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.27, up 20 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.39 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.81, up 16 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, Weak Euro Continues To Support French Market
23/06/15 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, with continued euro weakness on Greek nervousness helping support the French market. The one remaining old crop London wheat contract closed lower, but other months ended around GBP0.90/tonne firmer.
At the close Jul 15 London wheat was down GBP1.10/tonne at GBP109.90/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR184.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.50/tonne at EUR164.25/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR381.50/tonne.
The barley harvest is underway in Russia, Romania and Ukraine. Early yields are said to be "good" in the first two and "average" in the latter, according to Agritel.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested over 230 TMT of "grain" so far (assumed to be barley) and that average yields were up 18% on a year ago. Domestic barley prices in Russia are now under pressure.
The Russian Ministry picked up 33,345 MT of "grain" at their latest intervention purchase round, of which almost 30,000 MT was grade-3 milling wheat.
They're harvesting barley in France too, where the forecast is warm and dry for the next 14 days, with temperatures in Paris forecast to hit 29C on Friday. That should accelerate the early barley and rapeseed harvest, but may knock a bit more yield potential off winter wheat.
Reuters reported that Indian millers had bought around 500,000 MT of Australian milling wheat to blend in with their own lower grade domestic crop this year, and almost half of that wheat has already been shipped. They are said to potentially be in the market for a further similar volume, and may turn their attention now to French or Russian new crop when it becomes available shortly.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that the developing El Niño is similar to the previous record event seen in 1997/98. Australian wheat yields were down 12.4% overall that year, with El Niño typically bringing drought to eastern states, although it can sometimes make conditions wetter than normal in Western Australia.
"While the strengthening El Niño is a concern for crops in eastern Australia, the yield outlook is by no means yet clear. The timing of any rainfall over the next few weeks will be critical for these crops," said the HGCA.
"Meanwhile, the outlook for crops in Western Australia is currently more positive, but again, rainfall at certain growth development stages will be vital for crops to optimise yields," they added.
Oil World said that the EU had imported 4 MMT of soybeans in March-May this year, a 21% increase on the same period in 2014. Brazil was the largest supplier (at 2.37 MMT) followed by Paraguay (with almost 1 MMT). The EU also imported 5,26 MMT of soymeal in the period, slightly less than the 5.32 MMT brought in the previous year.
China said that it had imported 367.7 TMT of wheat in May, a 63% increase versus May 2014. Australia (210.8 TMT) and Canada (110.7 TMT) were the largest suppliers. The country also imported 726.2 TMT of barley last month, up 9% on a year ago, with Australia (406.9 TMT) and France (252.3 TMT) the biggest sellers.
The US winter wheat harvest remains retarded at only 19% complete versus 31% done normally, hampered by heavy rains which are causing sprouting and disease issues, as well as delaying planting of second crop soybeans.
Serbia said that it expects a 2015 wheat harvest of 2.4 MMT this year, which is enough to cover their domestic needs and provide something for export.
Rabobank forecast French milling wheat prices on MATIF at around EUR180/tonne in Q4 of this year, a little below where the Dec 15 contract currently trades. Having begun the year at EUR200/tonne, French prices have steadily ground lower throughout the year, currently showing a loss of 8.6% this year so far.
London wheat prices meanwhile are down close to 18% from where they finished 2014, and Chicago wheat is down almost 15%, showing that this year's demise of the euro has helped support the French market relative to the others throughout 2015 so far. The euro is down 9.5% versus the pound and has lost 7.5% of it's value against the US dollar so far this year.
Midwest Rains: Too Much Of A Good Thing, Or Not?
23/06/15 -- Most of this report came in yesterday from my US weather chum, Gail Martell at Martell Crop Projections, with a few inserts from your truly. You can click the image to enlarge it.
Excessive rainfall has developed in the eastern Midwest causing widespread flooding. Soybeans especially are in jeopardy, because plants are smaller, due to later planting dates than corn. As of May 31st, only half of soybeans had sprouted and emerged whereas corn development was rather advanced with early planting and stronger growth.
Soybean prospects are worse than corn 67% good-excellent, 27% fair and 6% poor-very poor in the June 14th report. Corn was 73% good-excellent, 22% fair and 5% poor-very poor in last week’s report. Updated conditions will be released this afternoon from USDA, expected to show worsening conditions in both crops from continuing heavy rainfall. (They did, soybeans now 65% good to excellent and corn is down to 71% in the top two categories, although that's far from a disaster just yet).
Illinois soybeans on June 14th were rather favourable with 70% good-excellent. The new report is expected to show worsening conditions in the second leading soybean state. Iowa soybeans were 80% good-excellent with relatively drier conditions. (Illinois beans are down 10 percentage points G/E to 60%, and Iowa is still on 80% as of last night).
Rainfall has been excessively heavy in the Midwest, east of the Mississippi Valley in particular. Tropical storm Bill is responsible for the extreme wetness, making landfall in Texas last week, spreading a swath of heavy rainfall up through Oklahoma then eastward through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Corn and soybeans west of the Mississippi Valley were “less wet”, though above average rainfall developed most everywhere in the farm belt. A rash of strong thunderstorms was under way this morning in the Upper Midwest keeping the rainy weather pattern going.
Virtually the entire Midwest soybean growing area is expecting more rain. The heaviest amounts are predicted for northeast Iowa, southwest Wisconsin, northern Illinois and central Ohio. Localised flooding is expected from excessive rainfall in the upcoming week, 4-6 times normal in selected areas.
Midwest temperatures are expected be merely average this week, cooler than last week, due to frequent cloudiness and showers.
Extreme Wetness Linked to El Nino
The El Nino climate anomaly is to blame for extreme wetness. The El Nino signal is particularly strong this season, in fact, among the most intense on record. The Climate Prediction Centre claims El Nino chances would remain above 90% in the next several weeks.
The USDA forecast for 2015 soybean production is 3.850 billion bushels, down 119 million bushels from the record 3.969 billion bushels produced in 2013. This forecast seems reasonable, but only if Midwest field conditions improve with drier weather. Perhaps smaller plants have been washed out in the low-lying areas. The prime time for soybean yields is the pod filling stage in August.
Chicago Grains End Higher Across The Board
22/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with strong gains on US planting concerns ahead of tonight's latest crop progress report from the USDA. That put US soybean plantings at only 90% complete, up just 3 points on the week and behind the 95% done 5-year average. That was also at the low end of expectations and means that as of Sunday night US farmers still had almost 8.5 million acres of soybeans left to sow using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate of 84.635 million acres. Kansas is only 73% done versus 91% normally at this time, and Missouri is barely past halfway through at 51% sown compared to the 5-year average of 88% complete. Emergence was placed at 84% versus 87% on average. Good to excellent ratings were cut 2 points to 65% versus 72% this time a year ago. Weekly export inspections came in at 178,094 MT and now need to average 155,876 MT to hit the USDA's target for the season. Cumulative season to date inspections are 47.6 MMT, around 112% of the total for the same week in 2013/14. Canadian canola futures hit a one year high, and prices in Europe are less than 2 euros away from being at a 14 month high. Canadian canola exports for the season to date are up 0.3% on a year ago at 7.6 MMT. Their soybean exports are up 5.9% at 2.4 MMT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.89 1/2, up 18 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.59 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $333.60, up $10.50; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.92, up 37 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 to 6 cents higher. Short-covering ahead of tonight's crop progress report may have been a feature today. After the close the USDA cut US corn crop ratings two points to 71% good to excellent compared to 74% this time last year. Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and North Carolina have the worst conditions. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa have the best. Weekly export inspections of over 1.1 MMT beat trade expectations and were a little above what's required to hit the USDA target for the season. China were said to have imported 400,000 MT of corn in May, but virtually none of it came from the US. Jan/May imports are now 1.78 MMT. Roach Ag Marketing estimated US 2015 corn plantings at 88.1 million acres compared with the USDA's March prediction of 89.199 million. The USDA are due to release their revised forecasts next Tuesday. Plantings in 2014 were 90.597 million acres. The EU Commission's MARS unit estimated corn yields in Europe this year at an average 7.22 MT/ha, unchanged on a month ago but 10.6% down versus 8.08 MT/ha in 2014. They raised their forecast for corn yields in Ukraine from 5.60 MT/ha a month ago to 6.13 MT/ha, where they said "all crops benefited from favourable thermal conditions while soil water contents are still high." APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 575.8 TMT of grains in the past week, of which 91.5% (527.1 TMT) was corn. Russia's seaports exported 336.6 TMT of grains last week, but less than 12% of that (39.2 TMT) was corn. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.60, up 6 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains on all three exchanges. The USDA reported the 2015 US winter wheat harvest had advanced 8 percentage points on the week to 19% complete, well below 31% done for the 5 year average. Missouri is only 12% done compared to 44% normally, Kansas is at 8% versus 33% on average, Indiana is at 5% done versus 20% normally and Illinois is just 3% complete against 29% typically at this time. Winter wheat crop ratings fell 2 points in the good to excellent category to 41%, although that's still better than only 30% a year ago. Spring wheat rated good to excellent was up one point on a week ago to 72%, the same as this time last year. Spring wheat at the headed stage was placed at 23% versus 15% on average at this time. Weekly export inspections of 290,300 MT were not a surprise, but not very impressive either. Canada said that it had exported 15.0 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) so far this season, a 3.3% increase on a year ago. Durum wheat exports are up 8% at 4.3 MMT and barley shipments are 5.5% higher at 1.3 MMT. APK Inform reported Russian seaports had shipped out 336.6 TMT of grains last week, up from 280.5 TMT the previous week, of which wheat accounted for 278.1 TMT of last week's total. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 29.63 MMT of grains so far this season, up 18% from a year ago. Wheat shipments are 15% higher at 21 MMT, barley exports are up more than 100% at 5.23 MMT. The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their estimate for EU soft wheat yields this year to 5.85 MT/ha from 5.93 MT/ha a month ago and down 4.7% on 6.14 MT/ha a year ago. German yields are seen almost 10% lower than a year ago at 7.77 MT/ha, but those in France are forecast slightly higher at 7.41 MT/ha. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.01 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12, up 8 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.53, up 10 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, With Euro Shaky On Greek Nervousness
22/06/15 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, with the euro "shaky" ahead of what could be a pivotal week for Greece and the Eurozone. The Greeks need to repay the IMF $1.6 billion by the end of the month, money that they clearly haven't got. EU leaders are however talking more optimistically today that an eleventh hour deal with the country's creditors could still be struck. Either way, the cost to Europe is likely to be large, keeping the euro under pressure for some time to come.
Jul 15 London wheat ended unchanged at GBP111.00/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was up EUR3.00/tonne at EUR181.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.00/tonne at EUR162.75/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed firmed EUR2.00tonne to close at EUR381.25/tonne.
The latter was within touching distance of the highest close for a front month since April 2014. Canadian canola futures hit a one year front month high today, and the benchmark Nov 15 contract hit its highest levels in 14 months as a combination of dryness and a mid-May frost threaten to cut production there this year.
The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their forecasts for EU soft wheat, barley and rapeseed yields from a month ago, but left corn potential unchanged in their latest monthly crop report today.
"Crop yield forecasts for most winter cereals at EU-28 level have been lowered compared to last month’s forecast due suboptimal weather conditions," they said.
They now peg this year's EU soft wheat average yield at 5.85 MT/ha, down 4.7% on a year ago and down from the 5.93 MT/ha predicted a month ago. Barley yields were pegged at 4.65 MT/ha compared to 4.75 MT/ha last month and 5.1% below 4.90 MT/ha in 2014. Rapeseed yields were reduced to 3.28 MT/ha from 3.42 MT/ha in May and are now 9.4% below year ago levels of 3.62 MT/ha.
Changes to yield potential in France were only minimal, with wheat unchanged, barley and corn up a bit and rapeseed down only slightly.
Germany was a different story however, with wheat yields now seen at 7.77 MT/ha compared to 8.04 MT/ha a month ago and now 9.9% lower year-on-year. Rapeseed yields were also cut significantly to 3.96 MT/ha versus 4.40 MT/ha in May and down 11.6% on an average of 4.48 MT/ha in 2014.
"Scarce rainfall over large parts of Germany gives reason to worry. Soil moisture has reached very low values and without rain in the coming days a clear yield reduction of winter crops is unavoidable," they said.
In the UK, wheat yields were estimated unchanged at 8.14 MT/ha, down 5.1% compared to last year. Barley yields were trimmed slightly to 6.12 MT/ha, down 4.4% versus 2014, and rapeseed yields were also cut back a little to 3.53 MT/ha, a 4.9% reduction on a year ago.
"Relatively cool weather slowed down crop development somewhat but indicators remain positive. More rain is needed in south-eastern England to sustain good growth over the coming weeks," they said.
In other news, APK Inform said that Ukraine's seaports had exported an impressive 575.8 TMT of grains last week, up from 402.5 TMT the previous week. Once again corn accounted for the vast majority of that total at 527.1 TMT.
Russian exports via seaports were also up week-on-week, albeit at not quite such stellar levels. They shipped out 336.6 TMT of grains lat week, with wheat accounting for the lion's share at 278.1 TMT.
Bulgaria's Ag Ministry said that the country's 2015 wheat crop would come in at around 4.3-4.5 MMT compared to 4.9 MMT last year.
